The Optimal Notre Dame Scheduling Model

[Ndaccountant]

Not that you are wrong on MSU, but MSU is a higher profile team than the majority of 'name' programs play during the first three weeks...

I don't disagree and playing a soft 3 or 4 games throughout they year is fine with me. I just think in the playoff environment, ND will have to prove it belongs in the top 4 and doing so will require 3 top-15 games a year and 11 wins. We just don't have the street cred to get by playing a softer schedule.

 

[peoriairish]

Maybe play Stanford week 3 then?

No. They are one of the teams, at least in their current state, that need to be kept towards the end. Play someone like ASU in game 3. Someone that will bring some hype because they are a team we don't typically play (read VT v Boise) and they aren't so difficult that we can't beat them without the freshman only playing minimal minutes for 2 games.

 

[ACamp1900]

The logic I went with is this: keep the two half-seasons--leading up to USC and Stanford respectively. Place the BYE week for those games like normally done.

Place the toughest two ACC games right before the BYE week, so allow recuperation and to spread the schedule out.

1-
2-
3-
4-
5- ACC #1
6- BYE
7- Southern Cal
8-
9-
10-
11-
12- ACC #2
13- BYE
14- Stanford

Then place the two weakest ACC teams ahead of the #1 and #2...

1-
2-
3-
4- ACC #5
5- ACC #1
6- BYE
7- Southern Cal
8-
9-
10-
11- ACC #4
12- ACC #2
13- BYE
14- Stanford

Michigan State would have to be in the first four weeks of the season, per Big Ten rules. The powederpuffs are beneficial in the beginning.

1- powderpuff #1
2- powderpuff #2
3- Michigan State
4- powderpuff #3
5- ACC #5
6- ACC #1
7- BYE
8- Southern Cal
9-
10-
11- ACC #4
12- ACC #2
13- BYE
14- Stanford

Plop in Navy and the other ACC team where available. place them ahead of Georgia Tech when they're up on the rotation. Voila.

Get Jack Swarbrick on the phone STAT...

(SLOW. CLAP.)

What worries me is ND seems to be trading your powderpuffs with 2-3 legit BCS teams...

 

[gkIrish]

1- powderpuff #1
2- powderpuff #2
3- Michigan State
4- powderpuff #3
5- ACC #5
6- ACC #1
7- BYE
8- Southern Cal
9- Navy
10- ACC #3
11- ACC #4
12- ACC #2
13- BYE
14- Stanford

Plop in Navy and the other ACC team where available. place them ahead of Georgia Tech when they're up on the rotation. Voila.

I'm on board with this schedule. Would you consider Purdue to be a potential opponent in those first 4 games?

 

[GowerND11]

An open challenge: find a better scheduling model than one consisting of:

- Five ACC teams
- Three or four 99%-wins FBS teams
- Four or three rivals (Michigan State and Purdue?)

An example:

1- vs. Miami (OH)
2- vs. Ball State
3- vs. Michigan State
4- vs. Rice
5- vs. Duke (ACC #5)
6- at Florida State (ACC#1)
7- BYE
8- vs. Southern Cal
9- at Navy
10- at Pittsburgh (ACC #3)
11- at Virginia (ACC #4)
12- vs. Virginia Tech (ACC #2)
13- BYE
14- at Stanford
15- BYE

I really like this model. Leaves room to tweak, as others have done, but a great start.

There is a huge over estimation on the SEC teams that has been getting worse and worse. They always have 5-6 teams ranked in the top 25 at the beginning of the season (a reason I believe pre-season rankings should be done away with). WHen they play each other and lose, the losing team will only fall ~5 spots in the ranks. Then they play their cupcakes and keep moving up. In all actuality, take away Bama, LSU, and Ugga (pre-injuries) and the SEC a very average conference. The top teams just beat each other once or twice a season and that is enough to carry them to BCS bowls.

To bring that rambling home, I do not believe most SEC teams play more than 1-2 top 15 teams all season, despite what their rankings may say.

Yes, we had a thread on the preseason rankings and the problems they create. If a team starts at number 4 and beats the number 5, which also started at 5, the number 5 team doesn't look all that bad. It's much tougher then for other teams to climb the ladder because of the ranking system.

Take Georgia as an example.

This year they play USC, Florida, LSU, Clemson and will most likely have to play Bama in the SEC championship. To me, those four teams are better than the top four of Southern Cal, Standford, FSU and VT/MSU.

Take Bama this year. They play LSU, Texas A&M and will have to play Georgia in the SEC Champ game. To me, those three are all top 15.

I agree the middle of the pack SEC tends to be overrated, but the top of the pack clearly proves to be head and shoulders above anything else year in and year out.

Peoria has already touched on this, but the other issue is the way the SEC teams schedule. Maybe they have tougher top teams, but the road in between these teams is much easier than ours. That's the major difference.

Florida is bad.
Scar isn't any better than Michigan or MSU
LSU and Clemson are for real.

So taking away the SEC Championship, Ugga only plays 2 top 15 teams according to peoriairish's rankings.

Edit: And you made my point with Bama. Only 2 games against top 15 competition. (I don't really think it's fair to include the SEC Championship because they didn't schedule that team and have no choice in who they play)

Agreed

I think the simplest way to explain the future of scheduling is that we are an ACC member but we've traded championship eligibility for the USC/Navy/Stanford rivalries. We still need the three powderpuffs just like the rest of the country.

Spot on. And the powderpuffs don't have to be Idaho, New Mexico St, and Georgia Southern. Give a MAC school, lower MWC, and an American Conference team in there and it looks very manageable.

You do have to consider it though because in the end, that is who they will play and their full body of schedule will compare to ND's full body come playoff time.

Right. Notre Dame, whether we do weaken the schedule some or not, will still have a relatively tough schedule every year.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Get Jack Swarbrick on the phone STAT...

(SLOW. CLAP.)

What worries me is ND seems to be trading your powderpuffs with 2-3 legit BCS teams...

I'm with you. Excellent work by Buster.

 

[koonja]

Army, Navy, Air Force, Iowa Pre-Flight, 5 ACC teams, Rice, IU, Rice again.

LOL.

 

[Irish Insanity]

Basketball reference but, Tom Izzo plays tough games on the front end of MSUs basketball schedule to get them battle tested and prepared for what will come when they reach the tourney. Its a bit different in football as there isn't a tourney. But the last thing I would want is an easy front schedule, then a tough back one, then we don't have enough in the tank to 'show up' for the last game. We got prison raped in last years NCG. Thats not something I want to happen yearly.

 

[wizards8507]

I say fill the powderpuff slots with schools that are academically compatible. We can spin some BS about mutual interests in groundbreaking research and undergraduate education. Rice. Duke. Vanderbilt.

Sent from my Kindle Fire HD using Tapatalk 2

 

[Irish Insanity]

I say fill the powderpuff slots with schools that are academically compatible. We can spin some BS about mutual interests in groundbreaking research and undergraduate education. Rice. Duke. Vanderbilt.

Sent from my Kindle Fire HD using Tapatalk 2

Great ****ing idea. Seriously. We could for a conference. Like the Upper Level Intelligence Conference or the IQ Conference or the Intellectual Conference of America

 

[greyhammer90]

Basketball reference but, Tom Izzo plays tough games on the front end of MSUs basketball schedule to get them battle tested and prepared for what will come when they reach the tourney. Its a bit different in football as there isn't a tourney. But the last thing I would want is an easy front schedule, then a tough back one, then we don't have enough in the tank to 'show up' for the last game. We got prison raped in last years NCG. Thats not something I want to happen yearly.

The difference is that there are 64 teams that make the tourney. Losing a few early in the year doesn't kill Tom Izzo's title hopes, but it pretty much eradicates ours.

 

[Irish Insanity]

The difference is that there are 64 teams that make the tourney. Losing a few early in the year doesn't kill Tom Izzo's title hopes, but it pretty much eradicates ours.

Ya, thought about that after I posted. Sounded better in my warped mind than it read after I posted it. Lol

 

[Buster Bluth]

I'm on board with this schedule. Would you consider Purdue to be a potential opponent in those first 4 games?

Then it's not too different from the schedule now, in reality.

(As I mentioned on the Greg Bryant thread) I'm kinda curious as to how well rotating Michigan and Purdue would be received.

Consider it, for week 3:

2014: at Michigan State
2015: vs Purdue
2016: vs Michigan State
2017: at Purdue

2018: at Michigan State
2019: vs Purdue
2020: vs Michigan State
2021: at Purdue

etc etc

Think about it, as more conferences get to 14/16 teams and require nine-game schedules, non-conference rivals get pinched as there are only three games to create variety. This is oddly enough a solid compromise. Schools really get to maintain rivalries (and every class will get to experience home games at X school, so the recruiting aspect is still there), yet get to keep the powderpuffs and variety that are simply needed in this day and age.

From Michigan State's perspective they get to keep the Notre Dame rivalry but also mix in home-and-homes with other powers for variety when they switch to nine-game B1G schedules (which starts next season):

2014: vs Notre Dame
2015: at Oklahoma (or ____ school, merely an example)
2016: at Notre Dame
2017: vs Oklahoma

 

[NDhoosier]

Didnt ND already sign a contract with Texas for a home and home?

 

[ickythump1225]

Take Georgia as an example.

This year they play USC, Florida, LSU, Clemson and will most likely have to play Bama in the SEC championship. To me, those four teams are better than the top four of Southern Cal, Standford, FSU and VT/MSU.

Take Bama this year. They play LSU, Texas A&M and will have to play Georgia in the SEC Champ game. To me, those three are all top 15.

I agree the middle of the pack SEC tends to be overrated, but the top of the pack clearly proves to be head and shoulders above anything else year in and year out.

Yes but look at Alabama, they play VT...a moderately difficult team. Then they have a BYE WEEK (??) then play Texas A&M, and then have virtual bye weeks with Colorado State and Georgia State with an overrated Ole Miss team sandwiched in. Next they have the daunting slate of Kentucky, Arkansas and Tennessee before LSU. Then they MSU, Chattanooga (??), and finish it off with Auburn. Two tough teams, one or two moderately tough teams, and cupcakes scheduled in.

Are LSU and TAMU better than any teams we play this year aside from Stanford? Arguably...but they get so many gimme wins through out the season they can play down for a few weeks, heal up, play youngsters, and then get up one or two times a season for big games, which they typically split.

They played UGA last year in the SECCG but don't get me started on UGA. I give them credit for a tougher schedule this year but last year they were so severely overrated by virtue of playing an almost embarrassingly easy schedule. This year their schedule is set up like 'Bama's. They had two tough games out of the gate which they split. Then they had a bye week, then a virtual bye week by playing North Texas at home, then had LSU at home, and then they struggled with Tennessee on the road. They're giving up 32 points a game and if you take out North Texas that figure moves closer to 40 points a game. They've been ravished by injuries as well. UGA isn't as good as they appear don't be fooled. I live in the heart of Dawg country so I see quite a bit of them.

What we do is harder in my opinion. We never really have a gimme game all year. We have to stay up, or mostly up 12 times a year and almost every game is a rivalry game. When the Alabama's of the world stop scheduling the Chattanooga's and Georgia State's of the world I'll give them credit for playing a really daunting schedule. Otherwise most of the talk of the "SEC grind" is just ESECPN and the media hyping their cash cow.

 

[T Town Tommy]

There is a huge over estimation on the SEC teams that has been getting worse and worse. They always have 5-6 teams ranked in the top 25 at the beginning of the season (a reason I believe pre-season rankings should be done away with). WHen they play each other and lose, the losing team will only fall ~5 spots in the ranks. Then they play their cupcakes and keep moving up. In all actuality, take away Bama, LSU, and Ugga (pre-injuries) and the SEC a very average conference. The top teams just beat each other once or twice a season and that is enough to carry them to BCS bowls.

To bring that rambling home, I do not believe most SEC teams play more than 1-2 top 15 teams all season, despite what their rankings may say.

Using the FINAL AP poll rankings, for the period 2008- 2012, here are the number of top 25 and top 10 teams played by a number of major programs starting with a random selection of teams who finished, on occasion,* in the top 5 of the final AP top 25 poll in this period. Also shown in the right-hand column is the win/loss record

Team # of Top 25/Top 10 teams played Win/Loss record

Alabama- 23 & 13 16-7 &7-6
Arkansas- 23 & 15 6-17 & 3-12
Auburn- 26 & 12 9-17 &4-8
Florida- 25 & 13 11-14 & 6-7
Georgia- 20 & 10 5-15 &1-9
LSU- 25 & 15 11-14 & 6-9
Texas A&M- 20 & 9 5-15 & 2-7
Oregon- 17 & 10 9-8 & 3-7
USC 13 & 11 5-8 & 5-6
Oklahoma- 25 & 7 11-14 & 1-6
Oklahoma St 18 & 6 7-11 & 1-5
Ohio St- 17* & 7 9-8 & 3-4
Notre Dame- 16 & 6 4-12 & 1-5
Texas- 18 & 4 8-10 & 2-2
Stanford- 15 & 9 8-7 & 2-7

 

[arndtjc]

Didnt ND already sign a contract with Texas for a home and home?

Yes, 2015 at home, 2016 @ Texas, @ Texas 2019, at home 2020, if I recall correctly...

 

[OrlaNDomer]

1. ACC-1 (Syracuse/Virginia/Virginia Tech)
2. Northwestern/Purdue
3. ACC-2 (UNC/Duke/NC State)
4. Michigan St
5. ACC-3 (Pitt/Wake Forest/Boston College)
6. ACC-4 (FSU/Miami)
7. Bye
8. USC
9. Navy
10. ACC-5 (GT/Clemson/Louisville)
11. BYU/Utah/Air Force/Army
12. SHAMROCK SERIES (Changes every year ex. Rutgers/Vandy/Maryland/Penn St)
13. Stanford

That leaves us with 5 Difficult games a year (weeks: 4,6,8,10,13), 3 Medium games a year (weeks: 1,2,12), and 4 games we should win consistently (weeks: 3,5,9,11)

On an average year we should be able to win 2/5 tough games, 2/3 medium games and 4/4 lesser games putting us at 8 wins. On a good year we should be able to get at least 10 wins and with the difficulty of the schedule be considered for the top 4 that go to NC.

I know its a very difficult schedule, just my opinion.

 

[irishfan]

Scheduling here is so tough. In all honesty, I'm sad to see the Michigan games go. What I really wish the would do is keep Purdue on the schedule every year and then rotate Mich/MSU every 2 years. On years where we don't play Michigan, we could open up the scheule for the potential home/home with schools like Texas (I think most of us agree that Mich>MSU just about every year in terms of difficulty for us. On years where we do play Michigan, we should be doing games with BYU.

--5 ACC games
--3 of (MSU/Purdue/Texas equivalent) or (Mich/Purdue/BYU)
--Navy
--USC/Stanford
--Air Force, Army, or another low-tier BCS team for the Shamrock Series

Shamrock Series: on years where we have 3 ACC home games, we should make one of them the SS. On years where we only have 2 of these games, we should use our last scheduled game to play a low-tier BCS school in a shamrock series game.
I other words, here as follows: (and in no order)

Years 1 and 2:
1) ACC
2) ACC
3) ACC
4) ACC
5) ACC
6) Navy
7) USC
8) Stanford
9) Michigan
10) Purdue
11) BYU
12) Army/Air Force/Equivalent

Years 3 and 4
1) ACC
2) ACC
3) ACC
4) ACC
5) ACC
6) Navy
7) USC
8) Stanford
9) MSU
10) Purdue
11) Texas/equivalent
12) Army/Air Force/equivalent

Each year we've got 3 good challenges outside of ACC play (USC, Stanford, and Mich/Texas type team), and knowing the ACC we're probably going to get one real tough game from there (FSU/Clemson/Miami) and 4 winnable games. 4 tough games on the schedule with 8 that we should clearly be favored in. 11-1 with a strong team and pretty much a guaranteed spot in the playoffs (top 4).

 

[phgreek]

1. ACC-1 (Syracuse/Virginia/Virginia Tech)
2. Northwestern/Purdue
3. ACC-2 (UNC/Duke/NC State)
4. Michigan St
5. ACC-3 (Pitt/Wake Forest/Boston College)
6. ACC-4 (FSU/Miami)
7. Bye
8. USC
9. Navy
10. ACC-5 (GT/Clemson/Louisville)
11. BYU/Utah/Air Force/Army
12. SHAMROCK SERIES (Changes every year ex. Rutgers/Vandy/Maryland/Penn St)
13. Stanford

That leaves us with 5 Difficult games a year (weeks: 4,6,8,10,13), 3 Medium games a year (weeks: 1,2,12), and 4 games we should win consistently (weeks: 3,5,9,11)

On an average year we should be able to win 2/5 tough games, 2/3 medium games and 4/4 lesser games putting us at 8 wins. On a good year we should be able to get at least 10 wins and with the difficulty of the schedule be considered for the top 4 that go to NC.

I know its a very difficult schedule, just my opinion.

Its hard to tell exactly what the strategy needs to be to make the top 4. At some point Ls are Ls. I think SOS only benefits you if you are among multiple teams under consideration based on their W-L record. It still boils down to Ws. Undefeated ND team is likely in, a one loss ND team with SOS on par with what we know of ND has a real good shot.

I think we see an overhaul to the scheduling philosophy about the time Jerry Jones is onsite directing installation of a copy of his jumbotron, and doing so standing on field turf...may happen, but not today.

Also...why 14 games in Regular Season...I understand conference championships...but start later, and finish w/ someone who doesn't have conference championships...

EDIT: Nevermind...Byes...see it now

 

[Buster Bluth]

1. ACC-1 (Syracuse/Virginia/Virginia Tech)
2. Northwestern/Purdue
3. ACC-2 (UNC/Duke/NC State)
4. Michigan St
5. ACC-3 (Pitt/Wake Forest/Boston College)
6. ACC-4 (FSU/Miami)
7. Bye
8. USC
9. Navy
10. ACC-5 (GT/Clemson/Louisville)
11. BYU/Utah/Air Force/Army
12. SHAMROCK SERIES (Changes every year ex. Rutgers/Vandy/Maryland/Penn St)
13. Stanford

That leaves us with 5 Difficult games a year (weeks: 4,6,8,10,13), 3 Medium games a year (weeks: 1,2,12), and 4 games we should win consistently (weeks: 3,5,9,11)

On an average year we should be able to win 2/5 tough games, 2/3 medium games and 4/4 lesser games putting us at 8 wins. On a good year we should be able to get at least 10 wins and with the difficulty of the schedule be considered for the top 4 that go to NC.

I know its a very difficult schedule, just my opinion.

This would be insanely difficult.

 

[NDWorld247]

I don't have a problem with our current or future schedules. No matter how you organize the games, our schedule is going to be difficult. I don't blame our schedule for a 4-2 start. I guess you could replace Michigan and Oklahoma with Navy and Air Force and we'd probably be 6-0, but we'd still have to go into the big house at night in October or November and execute, and I don't know that there's a difference in playing Oklahoma at home in September or November.

I guess arguments can be made for a front or back loaded schedule, but the reality is, even though we are an independent and there would appear to be schedule flexibility, there really isn't. We're forced to play Big 10 teams in September and the USC/Stanford games will almost always be mid-season (home) and late-season (away). Also, I imagine the ACC schedule will dictate which weeks are open for our matchups with the ACC.

Under the current BCS, early season losses have been viewed more favorably than late season losses. I think this will still be the case under the playoff system, but maybe not as much as it currently is.

What I'm most curious about is who we will drop from our 2014 schedule. I've heard it's between Rice, Northwestern and Purdue. Any thoughts?

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

I do wonder how much of an effect NBC has on ND's scheduling practices. I suspect our past aversion to weaker opponents (excepting the service academies which are actually pretty decent TV draws) was a requirement of the TV contract foisted onto the program by an AD or others who didn't appreciate the negative impact on success.

Since the contract has been extended/renegotiated in a climate where ND has: aligned with the ACC, made noise about following the Texas TV rights model, played for a championship, is headed by a stronger AD than in years past, helped TV ratings with the Shamrock series, and has potentially allowed for ND games to be on cable via NBC Sports, etc., whether the football coach can now get his way with scheduling. Frankly, dropping UM may be a sign that ND is done with the crazy front loading of years past.

 

[ACamp1900]

I do wonder how much of an effect NBC has on ND's scheduling practices. I suspect our past aversion to weaker opponents (excepting the service academies which are actually pretty decent TV draws) was a requirement of the TV contract foisted onto the program by an AD or others who didn't appreciate the negative impact on success.

Since the contract has been extended/renegotiated in a climate where ND has: aligned with the ACC, made noise about following the Texas TV rights model, played for a championship, is headed by a stronger AD than in years past, helped TV ratings with the Shamrock series, and has potentially allowed for ND games to be on cable via NBC Sports, etc., whether the football coach can now get his way with scheduling. Frankly, dropping UM may be a sign that ND is done with the crazy front loading of years past.

eh, you could make the case ND played even harder schedules in the years leading up to the NBS contract...

 

[Black Irish]

I don't disagree and playing a soft 3 or 4 games throughout they year is fine with me. I just think in the playoff environment, ND will have to prove it belongs in the top 4 and doing so will require 3 top-15 games a year and 11 wins. We just don't have the street cred to get by playing a softer schedule.

Agree. Granted, ND's easiest opponent is harder than 'Bama or Georgia's or LSU's easiest opponent. But their hardest is (usually) harder than Notre Dame's. Unfortunately, the former doesn't help as as much as the latter hurts us. But, IMO, as soon as the Irish soften their schedule with flat out cupcakes, they'll be crucified for going soft.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

eh, you could make the case ND played even harder schedules in the years leading up to the NBS contract...

But I feel like that was more common among the CFB elite when polls were the sole determinant of the championship. Meanwhile it seems that BCS royalty has moved away from playing lots of tough OOC opponents to bring home championships and ND hasn't followed suit.

 

[ep1987]

I would have much preferred 4 ACC games a year, playing each team once in a four year cycle with additional games against Boston College and Miami (Pitt 2nd choice).

Then USC, Stanford, Navy and Purdue every year.

Michigan and Michigan State home and home alternating (play one 2015, 2016 and the other 2017, 2018).

Shamrock series.

One lesser FBS team at home.

One home and home with a major programme.

Example

FBS
Purdue
Michigan/Michigan State
ACC
ACC
Bye
Stanford
Navy
Shamrock Series
ACC
Bye
USC
ACC
Marquee programme

 

[JughedJones]

I would have much preferred 4 ACC games a year, playing each team once in a four year cycle with additional games against Boston College and Miami (Pitt 2nd choice).

Then USC, Stanford, Navy and Purdue every year.

Michigan and Michigan State home and home alternating (play one 2015, 2016 and the other 2017, 2018).

Shamrock series.

One lesser FBS team at home.

One home and home with a major programme.

Example

FBS
Purdue
Michigan/Michigan State
ACC
ACC
Bye
Stanford
Navy
Shamrock Series
ACC
Bye
USC
ACC
Marquee programme

You see? This is why you have a red bar.

 

[ACamp1900]

Because he's French???

 

[ickythump1225]

Agree. Granted, ND's easiest opponent is harder than 'Bama or Georgia's or LSU's easiest opponent. But their hardest is (usually) harder than Notre Dame's. Unfortunately, the former doesn't help as as much as the latter hurts us. But, IMO, as soon as the Irish soften their schedule with flat out cupcakes, they'll be crucified for going soft.

I would argue during the PC era our hardest opponent, USC was better than any team in the SEC during that time span. Also this year I would say that Stanford>>LSU and TAMU (the two marquee opponents for Alabama) and Stanford>>>>>USCe and at least even with Clemson. Also don't discount Oklahoma or ASU. Those teams are good.