The Optimal Notre Dame Scheduling Model

[greyhammer90]

This. I have making predictions, but I do make a mental list of strengths and weaknesses in a match up...and then dread the weaknesses and am almost convinced of a loss.

Well that's just what we do as fans. I could consistently out-negative "Boo-hoo Lou" when it comes to this team.

I remember last year I was terrified of Le'Veon Bell.

 

[Cackalacky]

Seriously, I have bought into the system. There is so much I like about how he does things as far as talking to the kids. If he sticks around the program will be in great shape. We just win now and we close games out in the 4th. He also wins in November.

 

[irishroo]

FSU is the only game that scares the shits outta me. Maybe Stanford, but they lose some defensive depth at least.

If you look at each game individually I agree, but looking at the schedule as an aggregate and taking into account the physical wear and tear that occurs when playing teams of this caliber week in, week out, Stanford. ASU, and Michigan get a whole lot scarier. Not to mention I have a sneaking suspicious the Trojans are gonna grab a coach who happens to share a last name with our fearless leader and is currently struggling through his first season in the NFL, and I'm terrified.

 

[Buster Bluth]

After listening to the OFD podcast about Navy, I have an addendum

1- at Navy
2- vs. Ball State
3- vs. Michigan State
4- vs. Rice
5- vs. Duke (ACC #5)
6- at Florida State (ACC#1)
7- BYE
8- vs. Southern Cal
9- vs. Miami (OH)
10- at Pittsburgh (ACC #3)
11- at Virginia (ACC #4)
12- vs. Virginia Tech (ACC #2)
13- BYE
14- at Stanford
C- BYE

Basically, get Navy in the beginning of the season with peak depth and time to recover. Don't play triple-option teams back-to-back because, as Coach Niumatalolo said, it gave Navy a great opportunity to watch the Air Force game and know almost exactly what Diaco wants to and what adjusts he would make given specific looks.

 

[gkIrish]

After listening to the OFD podcast about Navy, I have an addendum

Basically, get Navy in the beginning of the season with peak depth and time to recover. Don't play triple-option teams back-to-back because, as Coach Niumatalolo said, it gave Navy a great opportunity to watch the Air Force game and know almost exactly what Diaco wants to and what adjusts he would make given specific looks.

But on the flip side, if you do have a major season-ending injury, you lose that player for the rest of the season and don't get the benefit of playing him for the first 6-7 games.

 

[bmf175]

Florida is bad.
Scar isn't any better than Michigan or MSU
LSU and Clemson are for real.

So taking away the SEC Championship, Ugga only plays 2 top 15 teams according to peoriairish's rankings.

Edit: And you made my point with Bama. Only 2 games against top 15 competition. (I don't really think it's fair to include the SEC Championship because they didn't schedule that team and have no choice in who they play)

Scar is a class above UM and MSU. They lost to UGA in a close game. And they continually beat Clemson.

 

[chubler]

But on the flip side, if you do have a major season-ending injury, you lose that player for the rest of the season and don't get the benefit of playing him for the first 6-7 games.

If the goal is to play for national championships, losing that player will have pretty much the same effect on the season no matter when you lose him. If we can't beat top competition without that player, we're not going to win 2 playoff games no matter when he goes down. But if he goes down early at least we've got time to adjust

 

[gkIrish]

If the goal is to play for national championships, losing that player will have pretty much the same effect on the season no matter when you lose him. If we can't beat top competition without that player, we're not going to win 2 playoff games no matter when he goes down. But if he goes down early at least we've got time to adjust

Again on the flip side, if Star Player X gets injured week 8, Freshman Player Y will have had 7 extra weeks of practice before he needs to take meaningful reps.

If X gets injured week 1, Y is thrown into the fire and we have a better chance of losing a game because of it.

 

[Kanye West]

Well that's just what we do as fans. I could consistently out-negative "Boo-hoo Lou" when it comes to this team.

I remember last year I was terrified of Le'Veon Bell.

The king of the 3 yard carry.

 

[ACamp1900]

The king of the 3 yard carry.

You kidding??? I once saw him backflip out of a pool over a Boise State defender like he wasn't even there... then he just kept on running and jumped into the third row off his back foot and spiked the ball into the opposite endzone...

I still have nightmares...

 

[chubler]

Again on the flip side, if Star Player X gets injured week 8, Freshman Player Y will have had 7 extra weeks of practice before he needs to take meaningful reps.

If X gets injured week 1, Y is thrown into the fire and we have a better chance of losing a game because of it.

True enough. I guess the only clear-cut advantage injury-wise would be the whole summer, instead of one week, to prepare guys for the cut blocks. And as far as cut blocks and injuries, I don't even want to drop Navy, but can we get rid of Air Force as soon as possible? I love the academies but we get literally nothing out of playing them. I was at the Air Force game and they couldn't even come close to a sellout playing ND, one of the largest draws in the sport. If we only suffer for playing them and we can't even give the air force a sold-out stadium, we should free up the spot on our schedule.

And less importantly, I'd like Navy first because fewer idiots would criticize us for playing Navy when most of them are opening with Cal Poly or Georgia State. We tend to hit a lull in the schedule when most teams hit the meat of conference play, which isn't great for perception of our SOS.

 

[gkIrish]

Bump bump bump.


Can't stress enough how overhauling our schedule would solve SO MANY of our problems. Less injuries to important players, player development accelerates, climb the rankings quickly, etc. etc. etc.

 

[CarrollVermin]

Bump bump bump.


Can't stress enough how overhauling our schedule would solve SO MANY of our problems. Less injuries to important players, player development accelerates, climb the rankings quickly, etc. etc. etc.

I am interested to see if the new ACC agreement helps with this at all. I also wonder if the time that it is taking to release the schedule has anything to do with this.

 

[gkIrish]

I am interested to see if the new ACC agreement helps with this at all. I also wonder if the time that it is taking to release the schedule has anything to do with this.

We definitely won't be able to alter the schedule enough next year, but I don't see why something close to the optimal schedule can't be achieved in 2 seasons. The agreement with Texas complicates things but dropping Michigan State is essentially an even trade if you look at the last 5 seasons.

 

[arndtjc]

Here's my guess at how the schedule will shape up:

Rice
ScUM
Purdue
@ FSU
@ Syracuse
Stanford
BYE
Louisville
UNC
@ Navy
@ Arizona State
Northwestern
BYE
U$C
National Championship

 

[wizards8507]

Question: Could we, theoretically, add at 13th game during conference champion week? It's not out of the question that a two-loss SEC champion jumps a one-loss Notre Dame because ND had that week off and kind of fell off everyone's radar. Maybe we could play BYU in the "Jesus Bowl" or something.

 

[gkIrish]

Question: Could we, theoretically, add at 13th game during conference champion week? It's not out of the question that a two-loss SEC champion jumps a one-loss Notre Dame because ND had that week off and kind of fell off everyone's radar. Maybe we could play BYU in the "Jesus Bowl" or something.

I could be wrong but I don't think that's allowed unless you play at Hawaii at some point in the season.

 

[OrlaNDomer]

I wouldn't complain if we played a game at Hawaii every year...

benefits:
recruiting Hawaii
extra game
not a bad place to play in November

only negative I can see is the financial burden, but ND could probably work out a deal to offset it...and its not like ND is hurting for money in the first place.

 

[gkIrish]

Question: Could we, theoretically, add at 13th game during conference champion week? It's not out of the question that a two-loss SEC champion jumps a one-loss Notre Dame because ND had that week off and kind of fell off everyone's radar. Maybe we could play BYU in the "Jesus Bowl" or something.

To respond to your actual point, while it's theoretically possible a 1 loss ND team would get jumped by another one loss team, it's highly unlikely. We will always have a much tougher schedule than just about any other team in the country and I definitely don't see how a 2 loss team could have a better resume than a 1 loss ND team.

A 13th game isn't necessary IMO. Just win 11 or 12 games and we are in the playoffs.

 

[woolybug25]

To respond to your actual point, while it's theoretically possible a 1 loss ND team would get jumped by another one loss team, it's highly unlikely. We will always have a much tougher schedule than just about any other team in the country and I definitely don't see how a 2 loss team could have a better resume than a 1 loss ND team.

A 13th game isn't necessary IMO. Just win 11 or 12 games and we are in the playoffs.

I think that is what some people forget about when they call for ND to soften the schedule. Our SoS is what allows us to get the benefit of the doubt for the championship game.

Another point that I haven't seen mentioned is now that the playoffs cometh, I think playing a harder schedule will not only help us make an argument into the tourney, but also give our team more experience in big games against quality opponents. It may help us be more prepared for a daunting couple games in a playoff.

 

[gkIrish]

I think that is what some people forget about when they call for ND to soften the schedule. Our SoS is what allows us to get the benefit of the doubt for the championship game.

Another point that I haven't seen mentioned is now that the playoffs cometh, I think playing a harder schedule will not only help us make an argument into the tourney, but also give our team more experience in big games against quality opponents. It may help us be more prepared for a daunting couple games in a playoff.

I think there's a difference between softening the schedule by replacing the Stanfords of the world with a mediocre team and replacing the BYUs and Pitts of the world with "cupcakes." Replacing Pitt with a team like Eastern Michigan has a negligible effect on our SOS while eliminating the possibility of a loss and allows BK to play some younger guys. The "Optimal Model" proposed in this thread highlights the importance of playing bad teams early on, which I think is the main problem with our current model.

(And yes I realize we have to play Pitt moving forward)

 

[woolybug25]

I think there's a difference between softening the schedule by replacing the Stanfords of the world with a mediocre team and replacing the BYUs and Pitts of the world with "cupcakes." Replacing Pitt with a team like Eastern Michigan has a negligible effect on our SOS while eliminating the possibility of a loss and allows BK to play some younger guys. The "Optimal Model" proposed in this thread highlights the importance of playing bad teams early on, which I think is the main problem with our current model.

(And yes I realize we have to play Pitt moving forward)

I was agreeing with you my last post, just for the record.

I agree with you on the point above as well.

 

[gkIrish]

I was agreeing with you my last post, just for the record.

I agree with you on the point above as well.

Haha I know. I rarely disagree with you.

 

[Buster Bluth]

The Hawaii Question is an interesting one. If it were going to happen you can bet that it won't happen at the end of the season. It would have to happen at the beginning so travel doesn't get in the way of school.

Then, of course, the game during the championship can't be scheduled against a team eligible for a conference championship, so it'd have to be a Sun Belt/Independent/Big 12/etc. Do you end the year against Navy? Does Notre Dame even want to be playing in South Bend in December? Does the championship week become the Shamrock Series weekend in a warm location? But then you're back to square one in that most AQ teams wouldn't be able to schedule a team that week.

I do actually like the idea of playing against Hawaii, it's a bonus on two fronts with the additional recruiting in the state and the pitch that recruits from elsewhere get to go to Hawaii.

It'd look like this:

1- at Hawaii
2- vs Ball State
3- at Navy
4- vs Michigan State
5- vs Duke (ACC #5)
6- at Florida State (ACC#1)
7- BYE
8- vs Southern Cal
9- vs Miami (OH)
10- at Pittsburgh (ACC #3)
11- at Virginia (ACC #4)
12- BYE
13- vs Virginia Tech (ACC #2)
14- at Stanford
C- vs Old Dominion

I'm not sold on it.

 

[gkIrish]

Yeah but why even play that game at the end of the season? Why not just play Hawaii and just keep 12 games total on the schedule?

 

[GATTACA!]

The Hawaii Question is an interesting one. If it were going to happen you can bet that it won't happen at the end of the season. It would have to happen at the beginning so travel doesn't get in the way of school.

Then, of course, the game during the championship can't be scheduled against a team eligible for a conference championship, so it'd have to be a Sun Belt/Independent/Big 12/etc. Do you end the year against Navy? Does Notre Dame even want to be playing in South Bend in December? Does the championship week become the Shamrock Series weekend in a warm location? But then you're back to square one in that most AQ teams wouldn't be able to schedule a team that week.

I do actually like the idea of playing against Hawaii, it's a bonus on two fronts with the additional recruiting in the state and the pitch that recruits from elsewhere get to go to Hawaii.

It'd look like this:

1- at Hawaii
2- vs Ball State
3- at Navy
4- vs Michigan State
5- vs Duke (ACC #5)
6- at Florida State (ACC#1)
7- BYE
8- vs Southern Cal
9- vs Miami (OH)
10- at Pittsburgh (ACC #3)
11- at Virginia (ACC #4)
12- BYE
13- vs Virginia Tech (ACC #2)
14- at Stanford
C- vs Old Dominion

I'm not sold on it.

Flex schedule where we play the highest ranked independent - any teams we already faced. Would/could never happen but its an interesting scenario.

 

[wizards8507]

Yeah but why even play that game at the end of the season? Why not just play Hawaii and just keep 12 games total on the schedule?

Hypothetical standings going into Championship week:

1. Florida State 12-0
2. Alabama 11-1
3. Notre Dame 11-1
4. South Carolina 11-1

In this scenario, Notre Dame's only loss was a 27-24 overtime defeat to 10-2 Stanford, while South Carolina got blown out by 5-7 Tennessee. Let's say South Carolina goes into the SEC championship and beats Alabama. ND doesn't play that week. We're jumped by South Carolina and the new standings are:

1. Florida State 13-0
2. South Carolina 12-1
3. Notre Dame 11-1
4. Alabama 11-2

Instead, if Notre Dame DOES play that week and beats a BYU or another school from a non-power conference, they have a buffer against the "leapfrog" effect. They started ahead of South Carolina and both teams won, so it's much more difficult for voters to justify shuffling them up, especially when ND had the higher-quality loss earlier in the year.

1. Florida State 13-0
2. Notre Dame 12-1
3. South Carolina 12-1
4. Alabama 11-2

Now I know this is the last year for the BCS but it will still be a situation where one or two poll positions make a difference. Rather than the "cutoff" being a drop from 2 to 3 to make the NCG, it will now be from 4 to 5 to make the playoffs. The fact is, a one-loss Notre Dame team will have 11 wins, while a one-loss conference champion will have 12 wins. That hurts.

 

[gkIrish]

Hypothetical standings going into Championship week:

1. Florida State 12-0
2. Alabama 11-1
3. Notre Dame 11-1
4. South Carolina 11-1

In this scenario, Notre Dame's only loss was a 27-24 overtime defeat to 10-2 Stanford, while South Carolina got blown out by 5-7 Tennessee. Let's say South Carolina goes into the SEC championship and beats Alabama. ND doesn't play that week. We're jumped by South Carolina and the new standings are:

1. Florida State 13-0
2. South Carolina 12-1
3. Notre Dame 11-1
4. Alabama 11-2

Instead, if Notre Dame DOES play that week and beats a BYU or another school from a non-power conference, they have a buffer against the "leapfrog" effect. They started ahead of South Carolina and both teams won, so it's much more difficult for voters to justify shuffling them up, especially when ND had the higher-quality loss earlier in the year.

1. Florida State 13-0
2. Notre Dame 12-1
3. South Carolina 12-1
4. Alabama 11-2

Now I know this is the last year for the BCS but it will still be a situation where one or two poll positions make a difference. Rather than the "cutoff" being a drop from 2 to 3 to make the NCG, it will now be from 4 to 5 to make the playoffs. The fact is, a one-loss Notre Dame team will have 11 wins, while a one-loss conference champion will have 12 wins. That hurts.

Like I said earlier, it's theoretically possible, but not likely. And there's always a risk you LOSE that 13th game so IMO not worth it.

 

[irishog77]

I don't think ND will even be able to schedule a game that week, but after years of ending their season the weekend prior, the Pac 10 bumped games back. This was done after several years of TV viewing the high profile SEC, Big XII championship games. USC would play UCLA that same weekend. They got a nationally televised game against a quality name opponent. The only problem was, it wasn't a championship game of any sorts...it was just a normal, regular season game. The perception of many (wrongly) was that it was a "big" game.

But it was savvy scheduling and marketing done by Mike Garrett-- it kept USC in the limelight and forefront.

 

[Black Irish]

Hypothetical standings going into Championship week:

1. Florida State 12-0
2. Alabama 11-1
3. Notre Dame 11-1
4. South Carolina 11-1

In this scenario, Notre Dame's only loss was a 27-24 overtime defeat to 10-2 Stanford, while South Carolina got blown out by 5-7 Tennessee. Let's say South Carolina goes into the SEC championship and beats Alabama. ND doesn't play that week. We're jumped by South Carolina and the new standings are:

1. Florida State 13-0
2. South Carolina 12-1
3. Notre Dame 11-1
4. Alabama 11-2

Instead, if Notre Dame DOES play that week and beats a BYU or another school from a non-power conference, they have a buffer against the "leapfrog" effect. They started ahead of South Carolina and both teams won, so it's much more difficult for voters to justify shuffling them up, especially when ND had the higher-quality loss earlier in the year.

1. Florida State 13-0
2. Notre Dame 12-1
3. South Carolina 12-1
4. Alabama 11-2

Now I know this is the last year for the BCS but it will still be a situation where one or two poll positions make a difference. Rather than the "cutoff" being a drop from 2 to 3 to make the NCG, it will now be from 4 to 5 to make the playoffs. The fact is, a one-loss Notre Dame team will have 11 wins, while a one-loss conference champion will have 12 wins. That hurts.

The first time something like this happens in the BCS playoff system, I'll bet Notre Dame's AD will be looking at putting the Irish in a 13th game to even their record up with the teams who play in conference championships.