The Optimal Notre Dame Scheduling Model

[Buster Bluth]

FBS
Purdue
Michigan/Michigan State
ACC
ACC
Bye
Stanford
Navy
Shamrock Series
ACC
Bye
USC
ACC
Marquee programme

The Shamrock Series doesn't need its own week. It will move between weeks 2-10 where ever it fits. And the teams will vary, I expect ACC and Navy/Michigan State to make up the majority going into the future.

I also don't get the "marquee program" angle, because the ACC membership will rotate in Florida State, Miami, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Louisville. We don't need to bite off more than we can chew every year.

 

[woolybug25]

Because he's French???

 

[ep1987]

The Shamrock Series doesn't need its own week. It will move between weeks 2-10 where ever it fits. And the teams will vary, I expect ACC and Navy/Michigan State to make up the majority going into the future.

I also don't get the "marquee program" angle, because the ACC membership will rotate in Florida State, Miami, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Louisville. We don't need to bite off more than we can chew every year.

The first three weeks, the West coast rivalries after byes and the marquee programme (i'm British by the way) would be more or less set with the rest flexible.

My thinking was that beating a big name in our last regular season game would allow a one loss ND team to make the BCS playoffs. A NC type team should have a minimum of five cupcakes (FBS week one, Purdue, Navy, two easiest ACC teams).

 

[Buster Bluth]

A NC type team should have a minimum of five cupcakes.

The normally have 7-9.

 

[ep1987]

The normally have 7-9.

'Minimum'.

This year USC and Michigan State would be gimmes whilst Michigan and any ACC team aside from FSU and Clemson would be more or less guaranteed wins. If ASU were the Shamrock game that should be in the bag.

Let's say that we had one of the top ACC teams; if we went 1-1 versus them and Stanford then a win in our final game against a top programme should be enough most years to make the BCS playoffs.

 

[woolybug25]

'Minimum'.

This year USC and Michigan State would be gimmes whilst Michigan and any ACC team aside from FSU and Clemson would be more or less guaranteed wins. If ASU were the Shamrock game that should be in the bag.

Let's say that we had one of the top ACC teams; if we went 1-1 versus them and Stanford then a win in our final game against a top programme should be enough most years to make the BCS playoffs.

I read that three times and still have no idea what you're saying...

 

[Black Irish]

I would argue during the PC era our hardest opponent, USC was better than any team in the SEC during that time span. Also this year I would say that Stanford>>LSU and TAMU (the two marquee opponents for Alabama) and Stanford>>>>>USCe and at least even with Clemson. Also don't discount Oklahoma or ASU. Those teams are good.

We do play some really good teams. And your point is taken with regard to Stanford right now and USC a few years back. But I'm still not convinced that Stanford wouldn't get embarrassed the same way the Irish did if they played 'Bama in the NCG this year.

 

[ulukinatme]

I like Buster's setup. Still, I'm not sure I like having 2-3 tough games in November when late losses hurt more than early ones. That BYE before Stanford/USC helps though. I definitely wouldn't schedule Purdue anymore. They're more trouble than they're worth. I'd keep MSU for the historic ties, if we keep any B1G schools. Heres what my schedule would look like:

1- Navy
2- Any Southern Cupcake for recruiting purposes
3- Michigan State
4- ACC #5
5- Army/Air Force/or open for Shamrock Series
6- ACC #1
7- BYE
8- Southern Cal/Stanford
9- ACC #4
10- ACC #3
11- Kansas
12- ACC #2
13- BYE
14- Stanford/Southern Cal

 

[ickythump1225]

We do play some really good teams. And your point is taken with regard to Stanford right now and USC a few years back. But I'm still not convinced that Stanford wouldn't get embarrassed the same way the Irish did if they played 'Bama in the NCG this year.

Last year's 'Bama team>>this year's 'Bama team. Also even if Alabama is that much better than Stanford they don't play themselves and I would argue that Stanford is better than any team on their schedule.

 

[Buster Bluth]

I read that three times and still have no idea what you're saying...

That makes six reads between the two of us.

 

[ep1987]

I read that three times and still have no idea what you're saying...

I thought the conversation was easy to follow.

Buster: What is your thinking?

Me: Schedule is tough but a NC type team would have five cupcakes, aim is to gain entry into BCS playoffs with a one loss team rather than manufacture an unbeaten season.

Buster: NC teams usually have 7-9 easy wins.

Me: Five would be the minimum, for example USC would be a walk-over this year with a NC calibre team as would MSU; ASU would be seen as pretty much guaranteed and i'd be disappointed to lose to this incarnation of Michigan. That's 9-0 meaning we could survive a loss to either Stanford or one of the ACC big boys and still be among the 'final four' with a win in our last game in most years.

 

[gkIrish]

I thought the conversation was easy to follow.

Buster: What is your thinking?

Me: Schedule is tough but a NC type team would have five cupcakes, aim is to gain entry into BCS playoffs with a one loss team rather than manufacture an unbeaten season.

Buster: NC teams usually have 7-9 easy wins.

Me: Five would be the minimum, for example USC would be a walk-over this year with a NC calibre team as would MSU; ASU would be seen as pretty much guaranteed and i'd be disappointed to lose to this incarnation of Michigan. That's 9-0 meaning we could survive a loss to either Stanford or one of the ACC big boys and still be among the 'final four' with a win in our last game in most years.

Yeah I think the problem is that all of that is wrong

 

[ep1987]

Yeah I think the problem is that all of that is wrong

Stanford mauled Arizona State* (who in turn blew out USC), they would kill MSU and would handily beat Michigan.

* Lead 39-7 before giving up points in the fourth

Very few teams are top 15-20 every year and a NC type team shouldn't lose to good but not great teams like ASU.

 

[Black Irish]

Last year's 'Bama team>>this year's 'Bama team. Also even if Alabama is that much better than Stanford they don't play themselves and I would argue that Stanford is better than any team on their schedule.

Could be. But I need to believe that Stanford is overrated and the Irish still have a shot to beat them at year's end (the kool-aid is strong with this one). Since the Irish are almost certainly out of the NCG, Stanford vs Alabama is a close second to 'Bama vs Oregon as far as the NCG match-up I'd like to see. As long as Stanford is 11-1 with a loss to the Irish, naturally.

 

[peoriairish]

This website wouldn't let me post a response with quote from post #47 for some reason, but here it is... You guys can look up and see the original....

I see your point, but it almost supports what I am saying. The top 7 here are all from the SEC. And of those, the only one with a winning record is Bama. The the SEC just beats up on each other and they are called good wins or good losses because they are unwarranted high rankings. Does that make sense? Sorry, the SEC and the blind homerism it harbors bothers me.
____

And on another note, my frustration is compounded by todays new top 25. Mizzou jumped to 14!!!! And Ugga the 15!!! Missouri beat a very weakened Georgia team that was just above average to start. No way they should jump 11 spots on that alone. And if they jump that much, why did Ugga only fall to 15?! Ugh

 

[ickythump1225]

This website wouldn't let me post a response with quote from post #47 for some reason, but here it is... You guys can look up and see the original....

I see your point, but it almost supports what I am saying. The top 7 here are all from the SEC. And of those, the only one with a winning record is Bama. The the SEC just beats up on each other and they are called good wins or good losses because they are unwarranted high rankings. Does that make sense? Sorry, the SEC and the blind homerism it harbors bothers me.
____

And on another note, my frustration is compounded by todays new top 25. Mizzou jumped to 14!!!! And Ugga the 15!!! Missouri beat a very weakened Georgia team that was just above average to start. No way they should jump 11 spots on that alone. And if they jump that much, why did Ugga only fall to 15?! Ugh

I have less of a problem with Mizzou jumping so high than I do with UGA only falling to 15. I mean going into Sanford Stadium and beating the Dawgs by 15 points just doesn't happen. But come on, UGA's defense has sucked all year and at this point they're playing with 3rd and 4th stringers on offense...they're not the 15th best team in the nation.

 

[Buster Bluth]

Kind of a revealing moment in the post-game interview during which Kelly was asked about how nice it was to play his younger guys early. Kelly even laughs and looks right at Swarbrick too. Question is at 6:49.

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[Patulski]

Duke
Purdue
Michigan State
Bye
Michigan/Texas/Oklahoma Tier 1 team
Wake Forest
Maryland
Miami/Clemson/Florida Sate Tier 1 ACC
BYE
USC
Navy
Maryland
BYU/Arizona State/ Tier 2 western team
Stanford

 

[ShamrockOnHelmet]

Duke
Purdue
Michigan State
Bye
Michigan/Texas/Oklahoma Tier 1 team
Wake Forest
Maryland
Miami/Clemson/Florida Sate Tier 1 ACC
BYE
USC
Navy
Maryland
BYU/Arizona State/ Tier 2 western team
Stanford

Well, lets see. You have Maryland twice, which in principle I have no problem with. But, they'll be a B1G team next year, so you should probably take another swing at it...

 

[irishroo]

So next year our schedule includes games at Arizona State, USC, and Florida State, as well as home vs. Stanford, Louisville, Northwestern, and Michigan? Christ...

 

[Black Irish]

So next year our schedule includes games at Arizona State, USC, and Florida State, as well as home vs. Stanford, Louisville, Northwestern, and Michigan? Christ...

Yeah, but we'll have Golson back, so it's cool.

 

[ThePiombino]

So next year our schedule includes games at Arizona State, USC, and Florida State, as well as home vs. Stanford, Louisville, Northwestern, and Michigan? Christ...

FSU is the only game that scares the shits outta me. Maybe Stanford, but they lose some defensive depth at least.

 

[IrishLax]

So next year our schedule includes games at Arizona State, USC, and Florida State, as well as home vs. Stanford, Louisville, Northwestern, and Michigan? Christ...

Yeah, it's pure insanity. If Taylor Kelly returns to ASU (which eh should because QB is loaded in this year's draft), they're a top 10 team. I can't believe we weren't able to get out of that game... really the biggest blunder Swarbick has made not having an easily exercisable out clause in the contract. FSU with Winston is a L and potentially a blowout. Just accept it now unless Golson is somehow a gamebreaker after his year off.

Stanford should be worse. Their offense is pretty crappy again this year and doesn't really look to get better unless their touted OL recruits play MUCH better as juniors... which very well may happen. Their defense should get a lot worse, depending on who all goes pro. The difference between them being a contender again or an also-ran is who elects to go pro.

Louisville should suck without Bridgewater. Northwestern is... I don't know. Probably pretty good. Michigan could be great with Gardner getting his BS extra year on a fabricated back injury that was never noted anywhere when it "happened" and never caused him to miss a single practice. USC is the biggest wildcard with a new coach and everything else there is no way to project them.

All in all, even with a very good to great team in 2014 it's hard to see more than 8-9 wins against that type of schedule. I was hopeful we'd drop Michigan but from what I've heard it seems like Rice is going to get cut... so that's just even more awesome...

 

[chubler]

then again, with that kinda schedule if we get 10 wins we're making life VERY interesting for the selection committee, because you know no one else will have anything even on the same planet in terms of SOS. Just food for thoughts (or maybe dreams)

 

[irishfan]

Yeah, it's pure insanity. If Taylor Kelly returns to ASU (which eh should because QB is loaded in this year's draft), they're a top 10 team. I can't believe we weren't able to get out of that game... really the biggest blunder Swarbick has made not having an easily exercisable out clause in the contract. FSU with Winston is a L and potentially a blowout. Just accept it now unless Golson is somehow a gamebreaker after his year off.

Stanford should be worse. Their offense is pretty crappy again this year and doesn't really look to get better unless their touted OL recruits play MUCH better as juniors... which very well may happen. Their defense should get a lot worse, depending on who all goes pro. The difference between them being a contender again or an also-ran is who elects to go pro.

Louisville should suck without Bridgewater. Northwestern is... I don't know. Probably pretty good. Michigan could be great with Gardner getting his BS extra year on a fabricated back injury that was never noted anywhere when it "happened" and never caused him to miss a single practice. USC is the biggest wildcard with a new coach and everything else there is no way to project them.

All in all, even with a very good to great team in 2014 it's hard to see more than 8-9 wins against that type of schedule. I was hopeful we'd drop Michigan but from what I've heard it seems like Rice is going to get cut... so that's just even more awesome...

Rice is getting cut?! God damn thats the one team we needed to keep on this schedule for next year. We've got 11 AQ teams and Navy if that is true. Not good. Going to be a bunch of Purdue-esque games on there where we bring the C game due to fatigue.

I think the ASU games were scheduled by White btw I thought I remembered reading that he scheduled them with ND having no out-clause.

FSU seems to be the only team who will clearly be favored to beat us in 2014. Looks like potential coin flips with ASU, Michigan, Stanford, and USC. Northwestern loses Colter and Mark, and they have looked terrible without them this year.

At least the schedule is home-heavy. Only 3 true road games.

 

[Cackalacky]

I think we definitely win 10 next year. Just confident. I have been listening to Kellys game speeches so I know what I am talking about.

 

[ACamp1900]

It would take a near miracle to win ten with that schedule... just my first thoughts...

 

[Cackalacky]

It would take a near miracle to win ten with that schedule... just my first thoughts...

Don't mind me. I am like the "slow-clap" guy when it comes to being a homer.

 

[ACamp1900]

I’m more of the fetal position fan…

 

[Buster Bluth]

I’m more of the fetal position fan…

This. I hate making predictions, but I do make a mental list of strengths and weaknesses in a match up...and then dread the weaknesses and am almost convinced of a loss.