Sep 27 | Syracuse

[gkIrish]

38-17 ND

 

[Black Irish]

A line moving in one direction or another is all about enticing betting, not actually where Vegas thinks the game will end. With it shifting down, they were getting too much action on Cuse, so they bought the line down to pump up the ND bets. I've discussed it in the past but I know Lax has a great explanation of it as well. That's why it drives me nuts when people talk about Vegas lines like they are actually what the expected outcome is supposed to be. All they are is to promote even betting so the books don't lose money.

Translation: I have a gambling problem, please help.

 

[tko]

21-20 Irish on a 48 yd fg with 30 seconds left. Golson exits game in 2nd quarter.

 

[MNIrishman]

I'm pretty sure we still use the away team's refs when we're at home. B1G refs when we played Michigan and all that.

The fact that refs aren't neutral in out-of-conference games has always been a much bigger deal to me than the BCS.

 

[PANDFAN]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Syracuse backup CB RT <a href="https://twitter.com/MinkNate">@MinkNate</a>: CB Wayne Morgan will not play vs. ND. has a knee issue that doctor will examine today</p>— Andrew Owens (@BGI_AndrewOwens) <a href="https://twitter.com/BGI_AndrewOwens/status/515140439062892544">September 25, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[wizards8507]

A line moving in one direction or another is all about enticing betting, not actually where Vegas thinks the game will end. With it shifting down, they were getting too much action on Cuse, so they bought the line down to pump up the ND bets. I've discussed it in the past but I know Lax has a great explanation of it as well. That's why it drives me nuts when people talk about Vegas lines like they are actually what the expected outcome is supposed to be. All they are is to promote even betting so the books don't lose money.

Truth. You speak it.

 

[Black Irish]

The fact that refs aren't neutral in out-of-conference games has always been a much bigger deal to me than the BCS.

I never got why CFB refs are employed by the conference and not the NCAA directly. It seems like an easy fix to a persistent problem.

 

[wizards8507]

I never got why CFB refs are employed by the conference and not the NCAA directly. It seems like an easy fix to a persistent problem.

The NCAA, like the federal government, should have as little power as possible.

 

[greyhammer90]

I maybe equating 'playing better on the road' with looking better. I think the NBC broadcast would make any team look less enthusiastic/athletic. Something about ESPN/ABC broadcasting that seems to make teams look faster and louder IMO.

Maybe they don't play better on the road, but it's a trick on the eyes.

I've experienced the similar perception trick. I've heard some say that it's largely due to the angle/zoom of the camera that NBC uses versus the ESPN/ABC method. Basically some say that NBC gives a wider zoom and higher vertical angle which makes our players look slower, and ESPN is closer in zoom and closer to horizontal in angle which makes their broadcast look faster. I'm not sure if this is actually true but that's what I've been told previously. Our team has looked faster on NBC this year which I credit to the turf (sorry Wiz).

 

[PANDFAN]

in all honesty i do think it has to do w/ the angle the camera shows the game...nbc seems to be further away in the point of view/camera angle higher up and shows more field where as ABC has it more close up and lower which would appear to be moving faster

I've experienced the similar perception trick. I've heard some say that it's largely due to the angle/zoom of the camera that NBC uses versus the ESPN/ABC method. Basically some say that NBC gives a wider zoom and higher vertical angle which makes our players look slower, and ESPN is closer in zoom and closer to horizontal in angle which makes their broadcast look faster. I'm not sure if this is actually true but that's what I've been told previously. Our team has looked faster on NBC this year which I credit to the turf (sorry Wiz).

sounds like a smart person

 

[greyhammer90]

sounds like a smart person

I can't read every person I have on ignore.
























jk.

 

[PANDFAN]

I can't read every person I have on ignore.
























jk.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Personally, I think Syracuse may present more problems than we estimate right now. They have a hybrid option offense that could present some problems for our young defense. Our front four have to be stalwarts during this game. I don't know if they'll be asked to 2-gap at all or just win their assignment but I'm nervous.

I think our offense will put up points but I'm afraid this could be a bit closer than we think.

ND 41 - Syracuse 24

I think they will have to two gap given the style of offense Syracuse runs. The Orange running attack has been decent so I would expect them to try and establish the run to make up for a subpar passing attack... not to mention their best WR is out for the game. I would expect BVG's defense to rise up in this one.

ND 41
SU 17

 

[Bogtrotter07]

I'm pretty sure we still use the away team's refs when we're at home. B1G refs when we played Michigan and all that.

Got your point, I meant when playing an ACC opponent. In other words, we would have the same refs no matter where we play Orange, UNC, etc.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

I think they will have to two gap given the style of offense Syracuse runs. The Orange running attack has been decent so I would expect them to try and establish the run to make up for a subpar passing attack... not to mention their best WR is out for the game. I would expect BVG's defense to rise up in this one.

ND 41
SU 17

You think ND's defense two-gaps tomorrow? A tribute to Bob Diaco?

Yes the Orange will run, because there is no guarantee that anything they put in the air won't be picked off. So it will be a good day to see our run defense against a team with a heretofore established ground reputation. And I am not feeling the Orange fear.

I think our offense against their defense will be really interesting. There should be no way we aren't able to throw at will against them. Will Kelly come out and put effort into establishing a successful evening of running the ball? Because if he does, he will give something else to future opponents to plan for, and be able to score at will against the Orange defense.

Just my opinion.

 

[ulukinatme]

I think we stick with our 4-3 one gap. It did a pretty good job of shutting down Gardner and he's fairly mobile...not that it seems hard to shut down Michigan these days.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

I think we stick with our 4-3 one gap. It did a pretty good job of shutting down Gardner and he's fairly mobile...not that it seems hard to shut down Michigan these days.

Jones or Cage two gap some on our under. I believe that is more the norm for a 1 tech, dt. Our three tech rarely ever does. Every one else usually angles, but from or to where? Only they and BVG knows!

 

[T Town Tommy]

You think ND's defense two-gaps tomorrow? A tribute to Bob Diaco?

Yes the Orange will run, because there is no guarantee that anything they put in the air won't be picked off. So it will be a good day to see our run defense against a team with a heretofore established ground reputation. And I am not feeling the Orange fear.

I think our offense against their defense will be really interesting. There should be no way we aren't able to throw at will against them. Will Kelly come out and put effort into establishing a successful evening of running the ball? Because if he does, he will give something else to future opponents to plan for, and be able to score at will against the Orange defense.

Just my opinion.

I would rather see the one gap and mix in some aggreesive blitz packages with some man to man on one side and zone on the other. Then watch Jaylon contain the corner and stuff inside to the lbs... alah the Jets of old.

On offense, the Irish need to get the run game going.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

I would rather see the one gap and mix in some aggreesive blitz packages with some man to man on one side and zone on the other. Then watch Jaylon contain the corner and stuff inside to the lbs... alah the Jets of old.

On offense, the Irish need to get the run game going.

Sláinte! Agus Síochána!

 

[T Town Tommy]

Sláinte! Agus Síochána!

To our peace and health???

Help me out a little Bogs.

 

[Rudy89]

How good is Syracuse? I know we should win but in the last few years peinetme on abc is just a go ahead to put us on upset alert. I wish I wasn't watching criminals tomorrow so I could be at home with beer to calm myself like I did against UM and Purdue.

 

[bobbyok1]

42-7 Irish. They start to show they are a championship caliber team with this game.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

I think we stick with our 4-3 one gap. It did a pretty good job of shutting down Gardner and he's fairly mobile...not that it seems hard to shut down Michigan these days.

These aren't similar offenses. That's like saying "When we play Stanford, I'm sure we'll stay 60-70% in nickle/dime sets because it worked against Michigan". Michigan ran a very different offensive scheme compared to what we'll see against the Orange.

And I'm not terribly well-versed in all of the ins and outs but BVG will have to have some wrinkles thrown in to have more bodies at the line of scrimmage to account for the option attack.

 

[irish#underground]

What time does the game start? Sorry if it were mentioned already.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

What time does the game start? Sorry if it were mentioned already.

8 pm Eastern

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Lots of predictions for a lopsided Irish victory. We're only favored by 10, which most of the advanced models tend to confirm. From the Sporting News:

LAS VEGAS – The unbeaten Notre Dame Fighting Irish return to action off a bye week by visiting MetLife Stadium on Saturday for a matchup with the Syracuse Orange (8 p.m. ET, ABC). New York’s College Classic marks these schools' first meeting since 2008, when Syracuse stunned Notre Dame 24-23 as a 19.5-point road underdog. The Orange are 3-0 against the spread in the last three meetings.

The Line: Notre Dame -10, Total: 51

Line movement: The consensus line around Las Vegas midweek had Notre Dame as a 12-point favorite, but the number dropped late Wednesday.

“(The sharps) ran us up on Notre Dame Monday from -11 to -12.5, and we got as high as -13 on Tuesday, but then others came stronger on the other side with Syracuse Wednesday afternoon,” South Point sports book director Bert Osborne told The Linemakers on Sporting News. “We moved fast with the number and kept up with the market, but when it was over within a period of hour, we were down to -9. The worst part about it all is that I had just turned in my parlay cards to the printer for the week with Notre Dame set at -12.5.”

The total opened 48 but was adjusted upward. For updated spreads and totals from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page.

Trends that matter: Notre Dame is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games after a bye week. Syracuse is 3-1 ATS in its last four games as an underdog.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Notre Dame’s last five games after a bye week. The UNDER is 6-0 in Notre Dame’s last six games against ACC opponents.

‘Cuse covers in New York: While MetLife Stadium is technically in New Jersey, New York’s College Classic is played at the home of the NFL’s Giants and Jets, which has also become a home away from home for Syracuse. Much like Madison Square Garden used to do when the Orange were members of the old Big East in college basketball, MetLife has provided thousands of Syracuse alumni the opportunity to watch them play and given the team a bit of a home-field advantage.

Despite losing the previous two games played there, the Orange have covered the spread both times and kept their fans engaged throughout. Last year, Syracuse lost its season opener to Penn State, 23-17, at MetLife as an 8-point underdog. In 2012, USC beat the Orange, 42-29, as a 24.5-point favorite, falling short of covering the spread. The Trojans led just 21-16 late in the third quarter before erupting for three touchdowns in the fourth.

Syracuse has also gone 2-0 SU and ATS in two appearances in the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium. Notre Dame lost its only previous appearance at MetLife, 35-17 as a 6.5-point favorite to Navy in 2010, and beat Rutgers 29-16 in last year’s Pinstripe Bowl, failing to cover as 14.5-point chalk.

Golson resumes Heisman campaign: Notre Dame quarterback Everett Golson will get his chance to win over east coast voters for the Heisman Trophy in this nationally-televised game and hopes to pick up where he left off before the bye. Golson has led the Fighting Irish to a 15-1 SU record and 9-7 ATS mark in last 16 games, with the lone loss coming in the 2013 BCS Championship Game to Alabama.

Heisman odds: Golson 14-to-1 on our board

The senior from Myrtle Beach, who missed last season due to academic suspension, is well ahead of his pace from 2012, when he passed for 12 touchdowns and ran for six more. This year, Golson has seven passing touchdowns and four rushing scores in just three games.

“Everett's a great football player,” Syracuse head coach Scott Shafer said. “We knew that he had a year off last year and now all of a sudden, he's back. He accounts for over 62 percent of their offense when you look at both pass and run, so he's the guy. He's the guy that we have to do a great job defending (against).”

Meanwhile, the Orange are led by senior quarterback Terrel Hunt, who had a career-high 156 rushing yards last week in a 34-20 home loss to Maryland, becoming the first Syracuse signal caller since Donovan McNabb to eclipse the century mark on the ground. Hunt is averaging 91 rushing yards per game, ranking fifth among quarterbacks nationally.

Weather: The forecast calls for cool temperatures, around 70 degrees, with clear skies and light winds. Visit Weather Underground for the latest forecast.

Handicapping help: Notre Dame-Syracuse matchup analysis | Power Ratings | ND team page | SYR team page

The Linemakers' lean: Kenny White and Micah Roberts both believe this will be a low-scoring game with two decent defenses matching up. Micah also likes Syracuse in this spot, because the line looks like the game is at South Bend rather than New Jersey. Our ratings indicate Notre Dame should be favored by only 5 points at a neutral-site against the Orange. Look for Terrel Hunt to give Notre Dame some trouble and keep this a close. The plays are Syracuse and the UNDER.*

* The play on Syracuse was recommended when the line was +12; it's obviously lost some value at +10.

I obviously think the Irish win, but the margin of victory will depend on how well BvG's 4-3 Under performs against it's first option attack. It shouldn't struggle nearly as much as Diaco's 3-4 often did, but that's not saying much.

 

[IrishLax]

The sports talk radio guy out here does something called the "smell test" every Friday where he simply highlights games where there is a "fishy" line or the public is heavily one-sided with the "wise guys" on the other side.

One of the games was Syracuse vs. Notre Dame. He said that the line opened around -13 and has moved all the way down to -9.5 or -9 on some books. He said that you'd assume that this is from the public heavily playing Syracuse, but it's actually TONS of "wise guy" money flowing in on the Orange with the public almost entirely on ND.

Long story short? Pre-season ND was a -5 over Syracuse and basically the sharks think that ND is who they thought they were (on account of Michigan/Rice/Purdue all being bad) and Syracuse is better than they've shown (bad luck against Maryland and QB out versus Villanova)... and they think the line is really high. Almost reminiscent of the Oklahoma/Texas line movement of last year if I remember correctly when Texas was coming off that embarrassing loss and people thought Oklahoma would roll them.

Soooo... if you're expecting a blowout, probably smart to measure your expectations.

 

[gkIrish]

The sports talk radio guy out here does something called the "smell test" every Friday where he simply highlights games where there is a "fishy" line or the public is heavily one-sided with the "wise guys" on the other side.

One of the games was Syracuse vs. Notre Dame. He said that the line opened around -13 and has moved all the way down to -9.5 or -9 on some books. He said that you'd assume that this is from the public heavily playing Syracuse, but it's actually TONS of "wise guy" money flowing in on the Orange with the public almost entirely on ND.

Long story short? Pre-season ND was a -5 over Syracuse and basically the sharks think that ND is who they thought they were (on account of Michigan/Rice/Purdue all being bad) and Syracuse is better than they've shown (bad luck against Maryland and QB out versus Villanova)... and they think the line is really high. Almost reminiscent of the Oklahoma/Texas line movement of last year if I remember correctly when Texas was coming off that embarrassing loss and people thought Oklahoma would roll them.

Soooo... if you're expecting a blowout, probably smart to measure your expectations.

Totally believe that's what's happening but I don't buy that this will be a close game. I've watched about 6 quarters of Syracuse games this year and they look awful. Has nothing to do with the excuses you mentioned. For this to be a "close" game Syracuse would have to hold us to less than 28 points. I don't see it, especially since we are coming off a bye.

 

[Buster Bluth]

Yeah I don't understand the blowout predictions at all. This game terrifies me. A solid team that shot itself in the foot with angry motivation to execute better...if Syracuse is on their game and Notre Dame isnt it's a toss up.

If ND put up 600 yards of offense and beat itself in a game, and then played a team with rushing struggles and a complete OL swap...we'd all be confident that the Irish will out it together and get a W.

 

[Buster Bluth]

Syracuse is the best team on the schedule so far, true or false? That alone, considering how mediocre the Irish have looked for stretches of games, should stop all blowout predictions.