2018 CFP Rankings

[GowerND11]

What's really irritating is how a lot of analysts and fans of other programs bring up that ND doesn't have to play a 13th game and should have to join a conference to make the playoffs. It's mostly fans but I've heard a couple idiot analysts talk about it, too. How about all wins vs FCS opponents not count? Then ND will play just as many games as most other teams, and more in the case of teams who play multiple FCS teams. This year most of our opponents are having down years but we will still have played and beaten one of the ACC CCG teams and possibly both B10 teams. In most years USC and Stanford are vying for a spot in the PAC12 CG. No other team can play that many teams from different conferences so we may not have a CCG, we practically do all season due to the fact every team we play is OOC and many of them end up playing in their CCG.

1st bold: That belief these people spew went out the window the moment OSU was selected to the CFP without winning the B1G (let alone making the CCG). Alabama did the same last year. They want to talk about the 13th game, and then admit teams that don't reach it? I don't think so.

2nd bold: No team, that I'm aware of plays 2 FCS games a year.

 

[greyhammer90]

Its extremely important that if we do make it, we either win or lose extremely closely in the semis. Winning those big moments in prior years is why Clemson is ranked no. 2 without real consideration. If we had won in 12 or if we had gotten a win in the playoffs a prior year, no analyst would be trying to talk us out of the top 3.

 

[gkIrish]

Here's the dream scenario everyone wants:

1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. ND
4. Michigan

Bama beats Michigan

ND beats Clemson

ND beats Bama

ND immediately becomes the '72 Dolphins. ND will have beaten the other 3 teams in the CFP's. No team can ever beat that.

I didn't even think about that. Would be amazing.

 

[wizards8507]

Is this true? I feel like I've heard it before, but I can't find confirmation.

The committee, at its discretion, may set semifinal matchups that are not necessarily 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3. For example, if Alabama and Georgia were both undefeated going into the SEC championship game, and Alabama won, sending Georgia down to the 4 seed, the committee could match Alabama with the 3 seed in order to avoid an immediate rematch.

 

[IrishLion]

Is this true? I feel like I've heard it before, but I can't find confirmation.

The committee, at its discretion, may set semifinal matchups that are not necessarily 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3. For example, if Alabama and Georgia were both undefeated going into the SEC championship game, and Alabama won, sending Georgia down to the 4 seed, the committee could match Alabama with the 3 seed in order to avoid an immediate rematch.

Yeah, they have discretion to decide the semifinal matchups, regardless of "true" rankings, based on geography and to avoid first-round rematches.

Based on who the top four projects to be, though, they won't have any reason to screw with the final rankings. The "true" rankings would put Bama in Texas and Clemson in Miami, which makes sense.

 

[wizards8507]

Yeah, they have discretion to decide the semifinal matchups, regardless of "true" rankings, based on geography and to avoid first-round rematches.

Based on who the top four projects to be, though, they won't have any reason to screw with the final rankings. The "true" rankings would put Bama in Texas and Clemson in Miami, which makes sense.

I thought I had read something about creating "the most compelling matchups," which would be a round one of Bama-Clemson and ND-Michigan, but I think those are for the other (non playoff) bowls.

 

[IrishLion]

I thought I had read something about creating "the most compelling matchups," which would be a round one of Bama-Clemson and ND-Michigan, but I think those are for the other (non playoff) bowls.

I don't know what kind of discretion they have in that regard, because those bowls mostly have contracts with certain conferences. There are at-large spots of course, and that's where they can get creative, but even then I think there's a "draft" system that bowls go through when picking the participants for the at-large spots, so they don't have total autonomy there, either.

 

[wizards8507]

I don't know what kind of discretion they have in that regard, because those bowls mostly have contracts with certain conferences. There are at-large spots of course, and that's where they can get creative, but even then I think there's a "draft" system that bowls go through when picking the participants for the at-large spots, so they don't have total autonomy there, either.

1. Selection committee will rank teams 1-25.

2. Selection committee will place teams in the playoff semifinals bowls.

3. Contract bowls will fill their berths in accordance with their contracts (Orange, Rose, Sugar).

4. Selection committee will assign teams to remainder of the Cotton, Fiesta and Peach Bowl berths.

 

[NDMIA]

What's really irritating is how a lot of analysts and fans of other programs bring up that ND doesn't have to play a 13th game and should have to join a conference to make the playoffs. It's mostly fans but I've heard a couple idiot analysts talk about it, too. How about all wins vs FCS opponents not count? Then ND will play just as many games as most other teams, and more in the case of teams who play multiple FCS teams. This year most of our opponents are having down years but we will still have played and beaten one of the ACC CCG teams and possibly both B10 teams. In most years USC and Stanford are vying for a spot in the PAC12 CG. No other team can play that many teams from different conferences so we may not have a CCG, we practically do all season due to the fact every team we play is OOC and many of them end up playing in their CCG.

Alabama
vs. #5 Georgia (9-1)
@ #7 LSU (8-2)
#21 Mississippi St (6-4)
Auburn (6-4)
Texas A&M (6-4)
Missouri (6-4)
@ Tennessee (5-5)
@ Ole Miss (5-5)
Arkansas State (6-4)
Louisiana (5-5)
@ Arkansas (2-8)
vs. Louisville (2-8)

Notre Dame
#4 Michigan (9-1)
vs. #12 Syracuse (8-2)
@ #22 Northwestern (6-4)
Stanford (6-4)
Pittsburgh (6-4)
@ USC (5-5)
@ Wake Forest (5-5)
@ Virginia Tech (4-5)
Florida State (4-6)
Vanderbilt (4-6)
Ball State (4-7)
Navy (2-8)

This is essentially what the committee should look at. First of all, they both played 12 games. One team had two byes (Citadel is a bye) to play their schedule while the other team had one. If your team can only give out a maximum of 63 scholarships and you are in a different division that is the equivalent of a bye week or exhibition game which is what teams do in college basketball. So essentially it comes down to Alabama plays 12 games and Notre Dame plays 12 games. I also don't understand at all why a conference championship game should have more value??? Clemson beating Pitt has more value than Notre Dame beating Michigan? Or Syracuse? Or Northwestern on the road? Why would you value that game more? I understand Alabama-Georgia being valued more highly than Notre Dame-Syracuse because Alabama is playing a better team than Notre Dame, but the conference championship is a neutral site game between two good teams and they should be judged on their whole schedule. When you look at their whole schedule I don't think they are too different. Alabama has some bottom feeders along with Notre Dame. I think winning at LSU was incredibly impressive and winning against Michigan was an excellent win, but neither one is drastically better than the other. Margin of victory would lead me to rank Bama ahead of Notre Dame because of how dominant they have been, but that 13th data point vs. 12 is a complete moot point and might even work against a team if I was working on the committee and that 13th data point was Furman, The Citadel or other teams of that caliber because that is a bye week.

 

[RDU Irish]

As long as there is an undefeated school out there why would you put a team in the playoffs that has already lost to someone else in the playoffs? Pinch out UM and the SEC runner up for UCF, IMO. If it turns in to an easy first round for the #1 team then so be it - they deserve it for being #1.

 

[anarin]

Yeah so if Georgia beats Alabama, Michigan wins out, Clemson gets stunned in the ACC championship by Pittsburgh, West Virginia or Oklahoma win out and Washington State wins out.

Exactly how could they justify anything they do without being torn apart? You know they'll entertain 2 SEC teams VERY HARD... Total chaos fellas lol

 

[Irish YJ]

PF show on the SEC Network was pretty good today. They are going over weaknesses of the top teams. For ND it was passing in the first half (we rank like 70 something since Book took over), 3rd down conversions (I think they were talking rushing 3rd downs), and STs was mentioned.

The first half passing woes goes back to IMO, Long/BK play calling, which he/they seem to always get back to what's working in the 3rd. Hopefully they've learned. The rushing 3rd down conversions seem to have gotten better, but I'd need to look up the stats. STs.... still scare the shit out of me.

For scUM, they listed the passing game in general, and also RZ defense which had pretty atrocious numbers.

Kubiak (who I think is a ND fan) who is one of the talking head producers, is pretty decent.

 

[Irish YJ]

CFP Exec Dir Bill Hancock was asked by PF about the head to head win ND has over scUM. He said it's definitely important, but also seem to caveat with "we look at the entire body of work". Seemed like a PC answer to say not minimize H2H but also give them a way out.

Also a lot of discussion about what if Bama loses to UGA. Again Hancock goes back to "body of work"........

Some of the analytics mentioned earlier said scUM would have a good chance of getting in over a late one loss Bama, but pOSU would not.

 

[IrishLax]

CFP Exec Dir Bill Hancock was asked by PF about the head to head win ND has over scUM. He said it's definitely important, but also seem to caveat with "we look at the entire body of work". Seemed like a PC answer to say not minimize H2H but also give them a way out.

Also a lot of discussion about what if Bama loses to UGA. Again Hancock goes back to "body of work"........

Some of the analytics mentioned earlier said scUM would have a good chance of getting in over a late one loss Bama, but pOSU would not.

I think if Michigan wins out and Bama loses to Georgia you're looking at:
1. Clemson
2. Notre Dame
3. Georgia
4. Michigan

I truly believe that. I think there will be a lot of pressure not to put two SEC in again especially over a Power 5 champ. If anyone gets bumped, it's likely to be Michigan... they'd have very similar profiles, with Bama passing the "eye test" better.

It's almost unthinkable that Bama wouldn't be in, but it's really the only logical team that can get left out and not have there be rage murders. None of this matters though, because Bama is not losing to Georgia. I'm more concerned with some hijinx where they try to put Michigan ahead of ND after they beat OSU and we get stuck playing Bama in the first round.

 

[greyhammer90]

I think if Michigan wins out and Bama loses to Georgia you're looking at:
1. Clemson
2. Notre Dame
3. Georgia
4. Michigan

I truly believe that. I think there will be a lot of pressure not to put two SEC in again especially over a Power 5 champ. If anyone gets bumped, it's likely to be Michigan... they'd have very similar profiles, with Bama passing the "eye test" better.

It's almost unthinkable that Bama wouldn't be in, but it's really the only logical team that can get left out and not have there be rage murders. None of this matters though, because Bama is not losing to Georgia. I'm more concerned with some hijinx where they try to put Michigan ahead of ND after they beat OSU and we get stuck playing Bama in the first round.

I have the same worry, but I think it'll happen after the conference championship. Until the eight team playoff happens, they'll do everything they can do soft punish ND for not having that stupid 13th data point.

 

[T Town Tommy]

I think if Michigan wins out and Bama loses to Georgia you're looking at:
1. Clemson
2. Notre Dame
3. Georgia
4. Michigan

I truly believe that. I think there will be a lot of pressure not to put two SEC in again especially over a Power 5 champ. If anyone gets bumped, it's likely to be Michigan... they'd have very similar profiles, with Bama passing the "eye test" better.

It's almost unthinkable that Bama wouldn't be in, but it's really the only logical team that can get left out and not have there be rage murders. None of this matters though, because Bama is not losing to Georgia. I'm more concerned with some hijinx where they try to put Michigan ahead of ND after they beat OSU and we get stuck playing Bama in the first round.

I truly believe that is what the committee is going to do. ND helped their chances to stay at #3 last weekend and have a great chance to add to it this weekend. If the Irish scrape by the last two games and Michigan wins out convincingly, I think there will be the push to put Michigan at #3. Will be total BS if the committee does that but I would not be shocked.

 

[Irish YJ]

I think if Michigan wins out and Bama loses to Georgia you're looking at:
1. Clemson
2. Notre Dame
3. Georgia
4. Michigan

I truly believe that. I think there will be a lot of pressure not to put two SEC in again especially over a Power 5 champ. If anyone gets bumped, it's likely to be Michigan... they'd have very similar profiles, with Bama passing the "eye test" better.

It's almost unthinkable that Bama wouldn't be in, but it's really the only logical team that can get left out and not have there be rage murders. None of this matters though, because Bama is not losing to Georgia. I'm more concerned with some hijinx where they try to put Michigan ahead of ND after they beat OSU and we get stuck playing Bama in the first round.

Torn here. I know what I'd like to believe the CFP would do, but I "think" they would:

Clemson
ND
UGA
Bama

I just heard way to much talk about body of work. A close loss to UGA would be seen in the same light as scUM's close loss to ND. That said, I think most talking heads (as well as voters) will privately value a loss to UGA in a CC more. Now if UGA beats them by a couple scores, I think scUM would be in. Regardless, I'd love to see Bama get left out (and send a message about SoS and CCs), but I just have little faith lol.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Torn here. I know what I'd like to believe the CFP would do, but I "think" they would:

Clemson
ND
UGA
Bama

I just heard way to much talk about body of work. A close loss to UGA would be seen in the same light as scUM's close loss to ND. That said, I think most talking heads (as well as voters) will privately value a loss to UGA in a CC more. Now if UGA beats them by a couple scores, I think scUM would be in. Regardless, I'd love to see Bama get left out (and send a message about SoS and CCs), but I just have little faith lol.

What??? Our SOS is comparable to most any of the other teams in contention. Full disclosure - I don't care as much for the SOS arguments as there are too many flaws with it in determining teams and their competition. With that said, if SOS is going to be a factor then Bama will be fine.

 

[Irish YJ]

What??? Our SOS is comparable to most any of the other teams in contention. Full disclosure - I don't care as much for the SOS arguments as there are too many flaws with it in determining teams and their competition. With that said, if SOS is going to be a factor then Bama will be fine.

I get a chuckle looking at Bama's schedule, and then seeing them have a 37 SoS. Goes back to the narrative that the SEC's high SoS is based 99% on playing each other. Self fulfilling prophecy. SEC W's best OoC wins.... Miami, Wash, KSU... Surprised UT didn't jump into the top 20 after beating Auburn, the team that beat an overrated Wash...

Just funnin' with you 3T. Sorta

 

[T Town Tommy]

I get a chuckle looking at Bama's schedule, and then seeing them have a 37 SoS. Goes back to the narrative that the SEC's high SoS is based 99% on playing each other. Self fulfilling prophecy. SEC W's best OoC wins.... Miami, Wash, KSU... Surprised UT didn't jump into the top 20 after beating Auburn, the team that beat an overrated Wash...

Just funnin' with you 3T. Sorta

I hear ya. You know you and I are good. The main issue I have with SOS is pretty simple. It starts with the premise that all conferences are equal. That's simply not the case and thus becomes the biggest flaw with the SOS argument. Furthur, when you are in a conference and you beat a team it has both a positive and negative affect on your SOS. You get credit for winning the game but you lose credit because your opponent lost a game. I could go on and on about the flaws in SOS but it appears to be the one matrix everyone discusses. We will be fine if that is the argument as we fare well in both Sagarin and FEI as they appear to be the main two people reference.

 

[wizards8507]

I have the same worry, but I think it'll happen after the conference championship. Until the eight team playoff happens, they'll do everything they can do soft punish ND for not having that stupid 13th data point.

13 data points have absolutely nothing to do with it. The issue is that the conference championship games are data points against very good opponents. Depending on our schedule in a given year, we might not have a win of that caliber on our schedule.

Alabama doesn't get credit for 13 data points when one of them is Citadel. But they do get credit for playing a very good Georgia team.

 

[Irish YJ]

I hear ya. You know you and I are good. The main issue I have with SOS is pretty simple. It starts with the premise that all conferences are equal. That's simply not the case and thus becomes the biggest flaw with the SOS argument. Furthur, when you are in a conference and you beat a team it has both a positive and negative affect on your SOS. You get credit for winning the game but you lose credit because your opponent lost a game. I could go on and on about the flaws in SOS but it appears to be the one matrix everyone discusses. We will be fine if that is the argument as we fare well in both Sagarin and FEI as they appear to be the main two people reference.

I think some teams get a little too much credit at times when they beat a team. I mentioned LSU zooming up the rankings from 25 to 6 after it's first three games. Problem is, SoS might even out a little as the team you beat takes a loss or losses, but when you move up 14 spots after one win, they don't take back spots when that team turns into trash lol...

 

[stlnd01]

I think some teams get a little too much credit at times when they beat a team. I mentioned LSU zooming up the rankings from 25 to 6 after it's first three games. Problem is, SoS might even out a little as the team you beat takes a loss or losses, but when you move up 14 spots after one win, they don't take back spots when that team turns into trash lol...

Early season wins are often way overvalued (like, say, when Va. Tech stomped FSU), because you don't know if the team that lost is actually any good. That's one advantage of the committee not starting its work until the season is 2/3 over. You have a better sense of who's who.

 

[Irish YJ]

Early season wins are often way overvalued (like, say, when Va. Tech stomped FSU), because you don't know if the team that lost is actually any good. That's one advantage of the committee not starting its work until the season is 2/3 over. You have a better sense of who's who.

IDK.... LSU started the CFP rankings in the #3 spot ahead of ND...

 

[Irish YJ]

liked this

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">✔️ <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BeatMichigan?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BeatMichigan</a><br>✔️ Protect Our House<br>◻️ Win in November<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GoIrish?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#GoIrish</a> ☘️ <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/uNDefeated?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#uNDefeated</a> <a href="https://t.co/vvMx8hUKOJ">pic.twitter.com/vvMx8hUKOJ</a></p>— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) <a href="https://twitter.com/NDFootball/status/1061691699129475077?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 11, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Henges24]

liked this

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">✔️ <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BeatMichigan?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BeatMichigan</a><br>✔️ Protect Our House<br>◻️ Win in November<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GoIrish?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#GoIrish</a> ☘️ <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/uNDefeated?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#uNDefeated</a> <a href="https://t.co/vvMx8hUKOJ">pic.twitter.com/vvMx8hUKOJ</a></p>— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) <a href="https://twitter.com/NDFootball/status/1061691699129475077?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 11, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

"One. Fvck Michigan. Two..."

 

[Black Irish]

13 data points have absolutely nothing to do with it. The issue is that the conference championship games are data points against very good opponents. Depending on our schedule in a given year, we might not have a win of that caliber on our schedule.

Alabama doesn't get credit for 13 data points when one of them is Citadel. But they do get credit for playing a very good Georgia team.

I agree and this is why 'Bama's SOS doesn't get held against them as to the extent it should be. Even if the LSU at #3 scenario never happened, 'Bama could still cruise by on being the defending National Champions & winning the SECCG to stay at #1 going into the playoffs.

 

[stlnd01]

13 data points have absolutely nothing to do with it. The issue is that the conference championship games are data points against very good opponents. Depending on our schedule in a given year, we might not have a win of that caliber on our schedule.

Alabama doesn't get credit for 13 data points when one of them is Citadel. But they do get credit for playing a very good Georgia team.

Except this year, those "very good teams" will include Pitt, Northwestern and some mediocre Pac-12 South team. Last I checked two of those three were on our schedule. We'll get no credit for beating them, but Clemson, Michigan and Wazzu will because it's The Conference Championship!

For every Alabama-Georgia heavyweight title fight, there's usually at least a couple of dogs among the title games. Conference championships are overrated.

 

[stlnd01]

I agree and this is why 'Bama's SOS doesn't get held against them as to the extent it should be. Even if the LSU at #3 scenario never happened, 'Bama could still cruise by on being the defending National Champions & winning the SECCG to stay at #1 going into the playoffs.

SOS mostly matters if you have something to prove. If you're 'Bama (or Clemson these days), last year, margin of victory, and "the eye test" matter more.

 

[wizards8507]

Except this year, those "very good teams" will include Pitt, Northwestern and some mediocre Pac-12 South team. Last I checked two of those three were on our schedule. We'll get no credit for beating them, but Clemson, Michigan and Wazzu will because it's The Conference Championship!

Clemson is undefeated and has been more impressive than we've been. Michigan is ranked behind us. The Pac-12 is likely out of the playoff, as is the Big 12. We have nothing to complain about. None of those teams are being given undue preference over ND.