So average teams win by 10 and good teams by 14+. Uh, not so fast ...
Wisconsin ranked 14th (that's better than good) by Sagarin averaged 7.7 yds/carry but LOST by 6 points to NW.
PSU ranked 53rd (kinda of average out of 120 some teams) LOST by 23.
ND is ranked 22nd by Sagarin, a FG less in strength than Wisconsin.
NW has been erratic in their games. They've held Wisconsin to to a 41% pass completion rate, PSU to 48%, and UM to 46%. But Minnesota #40, Nebraska #21, and Iowa #47 averaged 67% completion rate.
NW has 11 picks on the season but only got 1 against Min, Nebraska, and Iowa.
ND should win comfortably but NW has shown they're capable of beating a "good" team.
I know I'm nitpicking here, but even though Wisconsin is a solid team who lost to NW, they have a real problem at QB. They have split time between two QB's this year who have a combined stat line of 10 TD passes to 10 interceptions. McEvoy appears to get more snaps than Stave, but McEvoy also has a QB rating of just 115, which when compared to ND opponents, is worse than Gardner at UM and similar to the QB at Purdue.
For comparison's sake, Golson has 24 passing TDs to 11 interceptions (three of which were added last week), and 2600 passing yards - more than double Wisconsin's passing yards on the season.
My point is that, among the three opponents mentioned above, Wisconsin is the only "good" team on the list, and their passing game is worse than two demonstrably bad teams in UM and PSU. I'm not convinced that NW "held" them to anything.
That said, I've watched enough ND football to know that the Irish can make a game out of any opponent (See C. Weis and his Syracuse debacle). On paper, however, this game shouldn't be a contest.