Sep 4 | Texas

[RDU Irish]

11 wins = playoffs - no way a conference non-champ jumps us and we advance over 2 loss champs (unless it is SEC). Odds are at least two of the champs have two or more losses opening that door for 11-1 good guys.

Give me some examples of Power 5 producing four teams with 1 or 0 loss in the same year and I will consider your chicken little, all or nothing rhetoric. I think you greatly overestimate the probability.

 

[BobbyMac]

True. We didn't have the benefit of playing a B1G team last year that would have been a possible player in the conference championship talk, this year we do. Still, I don't expect MSU to have a phenomenal year this year. I would chuckle if Urban fails to beat Dantonio again and Kelly beats him in the same year.

On a neutral field, I'd say MSU is 3rd going into the B1G-E season. The other two are a toss up. OSU has the QB and a LOT of new faces albeit high 4 and 5 star new faces. Michigan has QB questions and but a team with momentum, expectations, solid D and a roster that's getting an influx of OSU like talent. Gut says UM is better now, OSU will be better when it counts later in the season. Their prob is they're @ OU early and actually have a stiff conf schedule ending @ MSU and at home against Michigan. They gotta lose 3 this year, right? Anyways, Dantonio has them both coming to E Lansing and this might be his last chance to win the East for a while.

 

[pumpdog20]

Condolezza would have gotten us in with 11 wins last year.

 

[ulukinatme]

11 wins = playoffs - no way a conference non-champ jumps us and we advance over 2 loss champs (unless it is SEC). Odds are at least two of the champs have two or more losses opening that door for 11-1 good guys.

Give me some examples of Power 5 producing four teams with 1 or 0 loss in the same year and I will consider your chicken little, all or nothing rhetoric. I think you greatly overestimate the probability.

Certainly there's little to no chance a conference non-champ jumps us with the same record, unless their schedule was far and away tougher than ours. I also agree that it's equally unlikely that a 2 loss champ gets in, although in the case of a 2 loss Stanford beating us and winning their conference it might be close and come down to schedules again.

However, your odds that at least two of the champs have two or more losses is completely bogus. Just as an example, last year all 4 of the playoff entrants were conference champions with only 1 loss or less. Same thing for 2014. So, you're batting 0.000 already in the short history of the playoff. That doesn't even factor in the fact that there could be yet another 1 loss conference champion factoring into the mix. Look at 2014. The Big 12 had not 1, but 2 conference champions (As stupid as that was, and the fact they didn't have a championship game at the time) that were left out of the playoff with a 1 loss record. Would a 1 loss Irish have beaten out a Big 12 champ in 2014 for a spot? There's a good chance, but it's moot because we weren't getting in over a 1 loss 'Bama, 1 loss tOSU, 1 loss Oregon, and undefeated FSU. It'll be harder to take that spot with the Big 12 allowed to have a championship game now, it'll force us to go 12-0 or hope for multiple 11-2 conference champion chaos.

 

[RDU Irish]

Without looking up their non conference schedule -

ACC - 2011, 2008, 2006, 2005 or 40% of the last decade champ had two or more conference losses.

B1G - 20% - 2012, 2011 had two or more conference losses and only three times in last decade was winner undefeated in conference

Pac12 - 30% in last decade

SEC 20% in last decade

B12 20% in last decade

Those are conference records only and mostly before many of those conferences had a championship game. I don't have time to dig deeper but I wouldn't be surprised if the actual %s are 50% higher if you add in non-conference records.

While favorites have won those CCGs mostly - the losing team would have been big spoilers had they upset. Over time - adding an extra game should lead to a higher percentage of team with 2 or more losses winning championships.

So go ahead and keep wringing your hands over your two season sample. I'll continue to have high confidence that a one loss ND is in the playoffs.

 

[koonja]

https://twitter.com/TheIrishTP/status/765607279563386880

 

[RDU Irish]

https://twitter.com/TheIrishTP/status/765607279563386880

closed the window and the next tweet was "be apart of something special..."

I would ask Dshans to correct that but it looks pretty accurate to me as it is.

 

[ulukinatme]

Without looking up their non conference schedule -

ACC - 2011, 2008, 2006, 2005 or 40% of the last decade champ had two or more conference losses.

B1G - 20% - 2012, 2011 had two or more conference losses and only three times in last decade was winner undefeated in conference

Pac12 - 30% in last decade

SEC 20% in last decade

B12 20% in last decade

Those are conference records only and mostly before many of those conferences had a championship game. I don't have time to dig deeper but I wouldn't be surprised if the actual %s are 50% higher if you add in non-conference records.

While favorites have won those CCGs mostly - the losing team would have been big spoilers had they upset. Over time - adding an extra game should lead to a higher percentage of team with 2 or more losses winning championships.

So go ahead and keep wringing your hands over your two season sample. I'll continue to have high confidence that a one loss ND is in the playoffs.

That's fine, but a major point is the fact that all the P5 conferences DO have a conference championship game now, something we don't have the benefit of. Unless SOS is very heavily in our favor, 12-1 conference champ will trump our 11-1 every time. You say 11-1 is a lock, yet just last season we got jumped by Oklahoma (Another 1 loss team) just before the Stanford game. Had we won the Stanford game maaaaybe we take our spot back, but I seriously doubt it. Stanford was a 2 loss team at the time, and Oklahoma was facing a then 1 loss Okie State whom they convincingly crushed. Is the Big 12 overrated? Yeah, but that still didn't stop the committee from jumping Oklahoma before that last week. All this proves is 11-1 is no guarantee what-so-ever, we would need help in the form of at least 2 P5 champs with 2 or more losses. 12-0 is about the only guarantee we can bank on.

I'll give you that there's a probability that we do have multiple 2 loss conference champions. In fact, this could be the very year it happens. I certainly wouldn't bank on it though, as the last two seasons have already proven a 1 loss conference champion isn't even a lock.

 

[Irish YJ]

11 wins = playoffs - no way a conference non-champ jumps us and we advance over 2 loss champs (unless it is SEC). Odds are at least two of the champs have two or more losses opening that door for 11-1 good guys.

Give me some examples of Power 5 producing four teams with 1 or 0 loss in the same year and I will consider your chicken little, all or nothing rhetoric. I think you greatly overestimate the probability.

A one loss non-SEC champ, especially coming out of the West (like LSU champ, Bama one loss, or vice versa) would get in over a one loss ND, or same scenario with FSU and Clemson. You could also say if Meatchicken and Bucknuts go into the last regular season undefeated, and OSU comes out on top in a very close one at home, UM could get in. It will be more about where folks sit in the rankings as we approach end of the season. 11 wins IMO in no way equates to assumed playoffs. Our best shot would be either losing a close one @ TX game one, or very close loss @USC to an undefeated or one loss (that coming vs Bama) Trojan team. Any other loss would just be plain bad (unless someone like NC State makes a LOT of noice)

 

[Sherm Sticky]

A one loss non-SEC champ, especially coming out of the West (like LSU champ, Bama one loss, or vice versa) would get in over a one loss ND, or same scenario with FSU and Clemson. You could also say if Meatchicken and Bucknuts go into the last regular season undefeated, and OSU comes out on top in a very close one at home, UM could get in. It will be more about where folks sit in the rankings as we approach end of the season. 11 wins IMO in no way equates to assumed playoffs. Our best shot would be either losing a close one @ TX game one, or very close loss @USC to an undefeated or one loss (that coming vs Bama) Trojan team. Any other loss would just be plain bad (unless someone like NC State makes a LOT of noice)

Agree. 12-0 obviously lock for playoffs. 11-1 and there is a good chance we are left out.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[arndtjc]

Sep 4 | Texas

Is there anyone making the trek to Austin, or know of someone who is, that might have an extra ticket available to sell for the game? I just locked down the time off work, and my mind has now kind of locked into making the trip. PM me if you'd have any leads on a ticket to get me in the door! I'm flying solo, so just looking for one ticket. Thanks in advance

 

[Bogtrotter07]

Had to post it, way too cool, no?

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

If BVG doesn't adjust his schemes to his personnel (with Redfield out), this defense is going to look a lot like 2014.

 

[Circa]

Todd McShay on Championship Drive picking Texas to beat us..

 

[BobbyMac]

Todd McShay on Championship Drive picking Texas to beat us..

Dear Todd McShat,

Regardless of what happens on D for the Irish, Texas still has to outscore the ND's offense.

Good luck with that.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

This game just became a tossup because we know almost nothing about our defense and we know very little about our offense.

Let's hope all of the guys rally around each other and rise to the occasion. Make no mistakes, this should be a game.

 

[Ultimate Penn St. Hater]

Our guys are going to focus like never before and we're going to beat their asses in primetime down in Austin! Go Irish!

 

[IrishSteelhead]

This game just became a tossup because we know almost nothing about our defense and we know very little about our offense.

Let's hope all of the guys rally around each other and rise to the occasion. Make no mistakes, this should be a game.

I felt like it was a toss up all along. VERY winnable, but not a smash and grab win.

 

[BobbyMac]

This game just became a tossup because we know almost nothing about our defense and we know very little about our offense.

Let's hope all of the guys rally around each other and rise to the occasion. Make no mistakes, this should be a game.

Line hasn't moved.

Surprised those who look for reasons to lose haven't backed up their fears with their wallets.

 

[arrowryan]

This game just became a tossup because we know almost nothing about our defense and we know very little about our offense.

Let's hope all of the guys rally around each other and rise to the occasion. Make no mistakes, this should be a game.

So it became a tossup because we might lose our 3rd string running back and that makes our offense and unknown?

 

[Bogtrotter07]

I love the situation ND is in right now.

I hope everybody in the world thinks Texas will cruise.

If the Irish ever had a wakeup call, it is now.

 

[NDShark]

I love the situation ND is in right now.

I hope everybody in the world thinks Texas will cruise.

If the Irish ever had a wakeup call, it is now.

Cruise may be strong, but I totally agree. I'd love to see the young bucks gain some confidence while QBa/QBb + RBa/RBb and some capable WRs behind a promising OL put up some big #s!

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

So it became a tossup because we might lose our 3rd string running back and that makes our offense and unknown?

Sure, if you want to discount the massive change in our secondary. I suppose if I were trying to be smug, I'd say something similar. Kelly was praising Redfield as recently as last week and while he wasn't a dominant player, he was still our best and most experienced option.

I'm sure the true frosh can play but we've seen in the past, players must be assignment sound in BVGs system or it crumbles quickly.

But keep acting like our 3rd RB was the only loss (even though he looked damn good this offseason. If he avoids the doghouse and injuries, I bet he gets 30-40% of the carries this year)

It's interesting to think that Redfield could've put the nail in BVGs coffin, if we don't find a way to fill that vacated spot.

I hope Studstill has a movie breakthrough where the lighbulb goes off above his head and he starts smiling and nodding his head to some old school beats.

We'll see....

 

[arrowryan]

Sure, if you want to discount the massive change in our secondary. I suppose if I were trying to be smug, I'd say something similar. Kelly was praising Redfield as recently as last week and while he wasn't a dominant player, he was still our best and most experienced option.

I'm sure the true frosh can play but we've seen in the past, players must be assignment sound in BVGs system or it crumbles quickly.

But keep acting like our 3rd RB was the only loss (even though he looked damn good this offseason. If he avoids the doghouse and injuries, I bet he gets 30-40% of the carries this year)

It's interesting to think that Redfield could've put the nail in BVGs coffin, if we don't find a way to fill that vacated spot.

I hope Studstill has a movie breakthrough where the lighbulb goes off above his head and he starts smiling and nodding his head to some old school beats.

We'll see....

I just don't think a potential one or two game suspension of Dex is going to do much to this offense; especially when they have Folston, Adams, and Jones who has been impressive early on.

For the defense, I agree with you that it is an unknown. It has been a little bit of an unknown all summer though. I still really like the secondary though and think they can be a strength for BVG.

 

[Irish#1]

This game just became a tossup because we know almost nothing about our defense and we know very little about our offense.

Let's hope all of the guys rally around each other and rise to the occasion. Make no mistakes, this should be a game.

IMO, the only real impact will/might be Redfield. He was having a good camp, but he's yet to show anything near what his potential is supposed to be. We'll have to stay within the assignments, but given Texas is a little green at QB, they may not be able to go deep to much.

 

[gkIrish]

I love the situation ND is in right now.

I hope everybody in the world thinks Texas will cruise.

If the Irish ever had a wakeup call, it is now.

I am partially with you Bogs. I think we still beat Texas by at least 10.

I am worried about the rest of the season, though.

 

[arrowryan]

I am not sure if anyone would have an answer for this but I'll ask anyway. Since camp ended this weekend, do they start prepping for Texas now? Or do they pretty much just continue what they have been doing all month and start prepping for Texas next week?

 

[dublinirish]

I am not sure if anyone would have an answer for this but I'll ask anyway. Since camp ended this weekend, do they start prepping for Texas now? Or do they pretty much just continue what they have been doing all month and start prepping for Texas next week?

it's all about prepping for UT now camp has concluded with maybe a short session per week on prepping for Navy and Army's option attacks.

 

[arrowryan]

it's all about prepping for UT now camp has concluded with maybe a short session per week on prepping for Navy and Army's option attacks.

Thanks. I know that classes start tomorrow so the coaching staff won't have the players for a good chunk of the day. It would make sense to use their time wisely and just start prepping now.

 

[NDdomer2]

Thanks. I know that classes start tomorrow so the coaching staff won't have the players for a good chunk of the day. It would make sense to use their time wisely and just start prepping now.

I cant speak specifically for this coaching staff but I know we always started integrating some game plan for week 1 before camp was even over.

Any "regular weeks" (aka non camp weeks) that weren't specifically game weeks, it was split 50/50 getting reps within own playbook and game prep for that next game.