College Football Playoff Rankings 2015 (ND #8...)

[Blaise]

Interesting thought..does the team perform better if they slide to #5 this week? I wonder how much more motivation that could spark..


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Motivation? They have a 1 game playoff for a chance to go to the playoff. They win and they have a good shot.. Lose and they are out.. I don't know if dropping to 5 makes them play harder.. If it does, we are recruiting the wrong kid

 

[gkIrish]

Yes. If ND is ranked ahead of OU tonight (and they will be) then beat Stanford on the road ZERO chance OU jumps them. SOS really matters in these rankings and ND's is much stronger than OU.

Sagarin has ND ranked 29th and Oklahoma ranked 32nd.

FEI is more favorable to ND: 6th compared to 37

 

[BeauBenken]

Interesting thought..does the team perform better if they slide to #5 this week? I wonder how much more motivation that could spark..


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That would honestly be the whackiest positive spin for dropping out of the 4 playoff spots. With one week to go, there is NOTHING positive about dropping from #4 to #5.

 

[ND NYC]

Remember that people like Danny Kannell are not real people stating real thoughts. He is an ESPN employee making statements to increase "excitement" in the viewing public. Think Mark May in "Lou Years." Fortunately the Committee doesn't have to create public media "hits", and tries to actually evaluate football.

I sometimes believe that even as knowledgeable a board as IE begins to believe that guys like this are saying things which actually matter. Go to the rare straight up commentators like Spielman and, usually, Herbstreit if we want honest personal opinions. Mostly Robert Smith does that too, although he swings from one view to another rather rapidly. I note with curiosity that all three of those guys graduated from OSU --- how the heck did THAT happen?

don't forget the speedy Joey Galloway!

and cris carter for that matter handling nfl duty at the mother ship.

espn/abc is infected with tons of B1G bias its maddening (Tirico, Dana whats her name)

 

[Wild Bill]

The committee is forced to look at four factors when teams are comparable. Only three are relevant when comparing OK and ND as they have not played head to head. ND holds an advantage in both strength of schedule, even if it's by a slim margin, and comparative outcomes of common opponents while OK would hold the advantage in championships won.

Of course none of us know how much weight will be given to each category and what other data the committee will analyze, but given what we know at the moment, we're currently ranked higher and they MUST analyze three points of data where we hold the advantage in two categories, I like our chances.

 

[dang227]

College Football Playoff Rankings 2015 (ND #4!!!)

College Football Playoff Rankings 2015 (ND #4!!!)

I don't see how the Committee can put Oklahoma over ND after they had to barely hang on against a TCU team that is devastated by injuries. TCU should have gone into overtime with OU.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[dwshade]

The committee is forced to look at four factors when teams are comparable. Only three are relevant when comparing OK and ND as they have not played head to head. ND holds an advantage in both strength of schedule, even if it's by a slim margin, and comparative outcomes of common opponents while OK would hold the advantage in championships won.

Of course none of us know how much weight will be given to each category and what other data the committee will analyze, but given what we know at the moment, we're currently ranked higher and they MUST analyze three points of data where we hold the advantage in two categories, I like our chances.

Championships won?

 

[Irish8248]

I don't see how the Committee can put Oklahoma over ND because after they had to barely hang on against a TCU team that is devastated by injuries. TCU should have gone into overtime with OU.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I don't think for a second we get jumped, but we barely held on against a terrible BC team. And it wasn't like BC just played lights our, we looked baaaaaaaaad.

 

[philipm31]

I don't see how the Committee can put Oklahoma over ND after they had to barely hang on against a TCU team that is devastated by injuries. TCU should have gone into overtime with OU.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

We should have gone into OT, or WON at Clemson, flat out.

 

[philipm31]

I agree with the analysis, but not the conclusion. Because you are correct that "Stanford is tough as nails" even a nail biter over Stanford, another signature win vs. a top 20 (include Navy, Temple and maybe USC) ought to be enough to get ND into the final 4.

USC just lost LAST WEEKEND by 20 points, while ranked 23rd. There is NO WAY that they are still ranked.

ND will have wins over Navy and Temple heading into this week. They NEED to crush Stanford to get into the CFP, which is NOT happening at Palo Alto....and unless USC crushes UCLA to win their division, our W over Stanford will mean even less.

 

[wizards8507]

ND will have wins over Navy and Temple heading into this week. They NEED to crush Stanford to get into the CFP, which is NOT happening at Palo Alto....and unless USC crushes UCLA to win their division, our W over Stanford will mean even less.

Where the hell do people get this stuff? If ND beats Stanford by 1 in triple overtime:

1) they're in if Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma
2) they're in if Auburn pulls an upset in the Iron Bowl and the SECW wins the CCG
3) they're in if Penn State beats Sparty and Michigan beats both OSU and Iowa
4) they MIGHT be in even if none of those things happen

No, Notre Dame does not NEED TO CRUSH STANFORD to get into the CFP. It would obviously be nice, but it's far from "must."

 

[NDgradstudent]

The BC game was our Waterloo. Had we won that by 30 points, as we should have, then we are not even having this discussion.

This is absurd. Whether we had defeated BC by 3 or 30, it would not have done much for our resume. Why would we get credit for beating a lousy team?

Beating BC and Stanford are necessary conditions for getting into the playoff, that's all. Nothing else is in our control.

 

[gkIrish]

This is absurd. Whether we had defeated BC by 3 or 30, it would not have done much for our resume. Why would we get credit for beating a lousy team?

Beating BC and Stanford are necessary conditions for getting into the playoff, that's all. Nothing else is in our control.

That's not entirely accurate. Looking good while beating those teams is within our control. Perception may be just as important as resume.

 

[wizards8507]

That's not entirely accurate. Looking good while beating those teams is within our control. Perception may be just as important as resume.

I think his point is that winning out might be enough. Whether we win out and look amazing or win out and look terrible, we may or may not be in. Neither condition creates a 0% or 100% scenario.

 

[NDohio]

USC just lost LAST WEEKEND by 20 points, while ranked 23rd. There is NO WAY that they are still ranked.

ND will have wins over Navy and Temple heading into this week. They NEED to crush Stanford to get into the CFP, which is NOT happening at Palo Alto....and unless USC crushes UCLA to win their division, our W over Stanford will mean even less.

The thing that makes me feel good about getting in with a win is that each week the committee has said that the top four are solid. That no discussion was made about dropping one of the four out. The major points of discussion were about 5-8. So, even if we slipped a little bit because of our unimpressive win, I still feel like ND is in the top four this week. And that gives me the confidence of win and we are in.

 

[johnnycando]

That's not entirely accurate. Looking good while beating those teams is within our control. Perception may be just as important as resume.

gkIrish: will you relax for me. Stick around and please keep posting. But relax with the feeling of impending doom, and the strongly slanted case, with analysts reporting ND will be jumped or completely left out, if tonight we're ranked #3?

Because that's exactly what is gonna happen. (Me thinks.)

If we get bumped out at any time, I'll start our New Year's bowl thread. And I'll be the first to say, gkIrish was absolutely right!

 

[beryirish]

I see that it was mentioned that the committee looks at the teams SOS and record then looks at their opponent's opponents records.

One thing that may be little but I think gets overlooked is prep time.

I think it was stated somewhere that Notre Dame only trails Alabama to teams that have had more than a week to prep for the game.

In some cases that is huge! Perhaps that has played a role in Notre Dames close wins. Yet ND still gets the win.

 

[johnnycando]

This is absurd. Whether we had defeated BC by 3 or 30, it would not have done much for our resume. Why would we get credit for beating a lousy team?

Beating BC and Stanford are necessary conditions for getting into the playoff, that's all. Nothing else is in our control.

I agree completely.

The talking heads will always make cases for other teams.

We are conference independent.

There are no ESPN deals with ND Football coverage.

These are true reasons behind talking heads hoping someone else moves in. And yes, I am naturally a conspiracy theorist.

I do not think BC was as bad a win as our ad nauseum posters say: we had our worse game of the season, fought through adversity, and won with 5 turnovers.

Good teams fight through adversity. <-- that's why we'll be #3 tonight.

 

[pkt77242]

The Spartans Shift Up: Updated College Football Playoff Predictions (Week 12) | FiveThirtyEight

Probabilities before the new rankings. They will update them again tonight after the CFP announces their rankings.

 

[ab2cmiller]

I see that it was mentioned that the committee looks at the teams SOS and record then looks at their opponent's opponents records.

One thing that may be little but I think gets overlooked is prep time.

I think it was stated somewhere that Notre Dame only trails Alabama to teams that have had more than a week to prep for the game.

In some cases that is huge! Perhaps that has played a role in Notre Dames close wins. Yet ND still gets the win.

Good point.

Below are the teams that had more than one week to prepare for us

Clemson - 16 Days
USC - 9 Days
Temple - 9 Days (Although ND had 14 Days to prep for Temple)
Pitt - 9 Days
Wake Forest - 15 Days
Boston College - 14 Days

 

[T Town Tommy]

The thing that makes me feel good about getting in with a win is that each week the committee has said that the top four are solid. That no discussion was made about dropping one of the four out. The major points of discussion were about 5-8. So, even if we slipped a little bit because of our unimpressive win, I still feel like ND is in the top four this week. And that gives me the confidence of win and we are in.

But the committee has said they don't look forward either. ND was solidly in at that particular week mainly due to the Big 12 and B1G not playing their marquee match up games yet. As those games get played, the teams that win can rise... hence the Oklahoma and Mich St jumps. That "solid" margin is decreasing week to week. If OU wins out, they will be a challenge for a slot no doubt. will they be able to get in? Don't know.

 

[ND NYC]

were a couple of you guys offering that its better for us if OKLA wins Saturday night?

thought conventional wisdom was we wanted OK to lose vs OKST....because OKST SOS was way worse than OKLA and also ours.

"good news" is that we play same time, so that game wont have any bearing on our guys psyche (just take care of your own business sat night)

 

[johnnycando]

were a couple of you guys offering that its better for us if OKLA wins Saturday night?

thought conventional wisdom was we wanted OK to lose vs OKST....because OKST SOS was way worse than OKLA and also ours.

"good news" is that we play same time, so that game wont have any bearing on our guys psyche (just take care of your own business sat night)

No way do we want Okie to win.

Lol. That being said: Texas. that is all.

 

[IrishLax]

The Spartans Shift Up: Updated College Football Playoff Predictions (Week 12) | FiveThirtyEight

Probabilities before the new rankings. They will update them again tonight after the CFP announces their rankings.

The problem with 538 for these projections continues to be their win probabilities. They tie everything into garbage FPI... which is exactly that. Garbage. So it puts Ohio Stat as nearly a 3-to-2 favorite over Michigan despite everyone knowing Michigan is the favorite for this game.

 

[ulukinatme]

Hope they're wrong, coming from CBS.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Analyst predicts a drop to No. 6 for <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NotreDame?src=hash">#NotreDame</a> tonight. <a href="https://t.co/DVPAQsKZxO">https://t.co/DVPAQsKZxO</a></p>— Eric Hansen (@EHansenNDI) <a href="https://twitter.com/EHansenNDI/status/669236082785980416">November 24, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Personally I think we stay ahead of Iowa, at least until CCG week. We have one common opponent in Pitt, and our win was more impressive there. We've played arguably tougher teams than Iowa. Obviously if Iowa wins out I'd say they're ahead of us. Not sure what will happen with Michigan State, but they'll definitely be close to us. Hopefully we stay ahead of Oklahoma as well, but it'll be close and it would be great if they were upset against the Cowboys.

 

[connor_in]

The Spartans Shift Up: Updated College Football Playoff Predictions (Week 12) | FiveThirtyEight

Probabilities before the new rankings. They will update them again tonight after the CFP announces their rankings.

Ohio State is not out yet, however. The Buckeyes’ path is just much less clear. They first need to beat Michigan at The Big House next week — no easy task, as the Buckeyes are only 58 percent favorites. Then they need the Spartans to lose. In a scenario in which Michigan State does slip up and a one-loss Ohio State team wins out — including over Iowa — the Buckeyes make the playoff in 96 percent of those simulations.

But that is not the Buckeyes’ only way to the playoff. Should they win out and be excluded from the Big Ten championship game, they still make the playoff 54 percent of the time. As I explained last week, Ohio State as a one-loss defending national champion presents an impressive résumé for the committee to consider, even if the Buckeyes are prevented from vying for their conference title. It’s possible that two Big Ten teams make the playoff.

What the proverbial hell? Their worthwhile wins being what UM (3 losses, 2 in conference) and PSU (4 losses, 3 in conference)? I get that they only would have 1 loss and to conference champ by 3...but it was at home, the other team was lower ranked, and was using back up QBs. There was no part of that game that is a resume builder and pretty much everyone agrees they did't play squat before MSU

 

[beryirish]

No way 2 teams from the same conference get in this year.

 

[ulukinatme]

If you ask me, it's still looking like SEC champ, B1G champ (Now down to Iowa/MSU probably, unless there's more chaos), Clemson, and either us or Oklahoma. First thing's first though, beat Stanford!

 

[wizards8507]

Hope they're wrong, coming from CBS.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Analyst predicts a drop to No. 6 for <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NotreDame?src=hash">#NotreDame</a> tonight. <a href="https://t.co/DVPAQsKZxO">https://t.co/DVPAQsKZxO</a></p>— Eric Hansen (@EHansenNDI) <a href="https://twitter.com/EHansenNDI/status/669236082785980416">November 24, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Personally I think we stay ahead of Iowa, at least until CCG week. We have one common opponent in Pitt, and our win was more impressive there. We've played arguably tougher teams than Iowa. Obviously if Iowa wins out I'd say they're ahead of us. Not sure what will happen with Michigan State, but they'll definitely be close to us. Hopefully we stay ahead of Oklahoma as well, but it'll be close and it would be great if they were upset against the Cowboys.

It doesn't really matter. Iowa and Sparty eliminate one another so we're left battling for the final spot with Oklahoma, which is where we thought we were anyway.

 

[dwshade]

The problem with 538 for these projections continues to be their win probabilities. They tie everything into garbage FPI... which is exactly that. Garbage. So it puts Ohio Stat as nearly a 3-to-2 favorite over Michigan despite everyone knowing Michigan is the favorite for this game.

Does anyone seriously think Ohio ST. will be 5th and that ND and Iowa both drop 2 spots? It is garbage.