1 Prediction
As I discussed with Larz in this past week's podcast I don't feel very good about Notre Dame's chances in this game. There hasn't been much to the Irish season so far that leads me to believe they are going to be able to beat a good team with the offensive weapons that Oklahoma possesses.
That said, there are a few ways for the Irish to win this game.
1.) Oklahoma's inexperienced defense really isn't that good
2.) The Sooner running backs have terrible production
3.) Bell's passing ability is skittish and leads to turnovers
The first and third ways seem like the best way for Notre Dame to win. It would be nice to make Oklahoma one-dimensional on offense but their passing game (with Bell's athletic ability sprinkled in) may still be enough to get the job done.
The Sooners are really inexperienced on defense and this might be something the Irish can exploit. If you don't count defensive linemen Chuka Ndulue who is not starting this season Oklahoma only has 3 returning starters from last year: Linebacker Corey Nelson, corner Aaron Colvin, and safety Gabe Lynn.
Now, the defense has looked better than last year through 3 games (20th nationally in total defense right now) but it's been a very small sample size against three below average teams.
Bell looked pretty impressive against Tulsa a couple weeks ago (27 for 37, 413 yards, 4 TD) but I wonder how he'll react in his first road start against a much more formidable opponent? If I had to bet I think Bell will likely play pretty well but for someone with so few pass attempts in a career there may be hope that he lays an egg this Saturday.
At any rate, if Notre Dame is going to win some combination of these three things is going to have to occur.
I want to believe that the Irish are tougher and will smack Oklahoma in the mouth which will lead to a win. I want to believe that Oklahoma's 3-3-5 defense won't match up well with Notre Dame's ability to go with two tight-end sets and play more physical even without Everett Golson. I want to believe this will be the game that the Irish turn the corner, put a shaky start to the season behind them, and defeat a ranked team on the big stage.
I just don't believe it.
Notre Dame is coming off a tough, physical battle with a rival while Oklahoma has been resting comfortably for 2 weeks with nothing to do but prepare for their South Bend invasion. Last year, the Irish had the mobile quarterback able to make plays with his feet and it was Oklahoma with the statue signal-caller. This year, the situations are reversed and that's not a good sign in the college game.
Last week I was confident in a Notre Dame win over Michigan State but I'll be very surprised if the Irish come out on top this weekend. The difference this year will be that Oklahoma's running game will be much more potent than it was last year and Notre Dame's is going to take a step back. I doubt we see such a huge discrepancy in rushing like last year's game but with Bell, a nice stable of backs, and a veteran offensive line I think OU wins the rushing battle by 50 yards or so and it makes a big difference.
Notre Dame 20
Oklahoma 30