Oct 27 | Navy

[Luckylucci]

I think Book is going to have a field day against this secondary. Dex will also break off a couple of big runs. Hopefully we start hot and get them off schedule.

 

[Irishize]

I don’t understand the spread. I guess they don’t factor in number of possessions. I know Navy has been blown out this season but ND would really have to shut down their offense to cover that spread wouldn’t they?

 

[Dizzyphil]

I don’t understand the spread. I guess they don’t factor in number of possessions. I know Navy has been blown out this season but ND would really have to shut down their offense to cover that spread wouldn’t they?

Probably because the 'betting line' history is usually a 5 year cycle in College Football betting. And the last (and only) time the Irish beat the spread within the past 5 years with Navy was in 2015 41-24 on a 14.5 line.



All ND favorites



2013 - 38-34 / -17
2014 - 49-39 / -13.5
2015 - 41-24 / -14.5
2016 - 27-28 / - 4.5 (Odds shark computer picked Navy to win 33 - 31)
2017 - 24-17 / - 18.5

 

[BobbyMac]

Neither did '09, '10 or '16.

<iframe width="600" height="380" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/pX1alEHInvs" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[notredomer23]

Really don't like betting ND-Navy, but my dumb betting brain seems to think we fair better against Navy coming off a bye, or in 2012's case, not having a game the week before playing them. This Navy team also sucks compared to the previous good Navy squads, so I am sure I will bet ND -22 and it'll be a 31-24 game.

 

[IrishLax]

I don’t understand the spread. I guess they don’t factor in number of possessions. I know Navy has been blown out this season but ND would really have to shut down their offense to cover that spread wouldn’t they?

This is the main reason I'm betting ND to cover. Navy's defense is a total garbage fire with no talent. They're 1-5 versus FBS teams this year, and their defense is 117th in the country by S&P+. They have given up 30+ in all but two games against FBS competition.

Realistically, ND should play with tempo and have about 8 total drives in the game. They should score a TD on at least 75% of those drives. It is unlikely that Navy cracks 21 points unless Clark Lea calls a boner of a game or they do a great job of injuring our DL.

 

[Irishize]

This is the main reason I'm betting ND to cover. Navy's defense is a total garbage fire with no talent. They're 1-5 versus FBS teams this year, and their defense is 117th in the country by S&P+. They have given up 30+ in all but two games against FBS competition.

Realistically, ND should play with tempo and have about 8 total drives in the game. They should score a TD on at least 75% of those drives. It is unlikely that Navy cracks 21 points unless Clark Lea calls a boner of a game or they do a great job of injuring our DL.

After BSU, Vandy & especially Pitt, I wouldn’t touch an ND game w/ a 10-ft pole unless it was for the opponent to cover.

You’re right about Navy. Their d is Wake Forest-like. Their offense has lost six fumbles and average around one per game. When their offense is clicking they have one of the best 3rd down conversion rates in the nation. Not this year....BUT...if they get in the red zone, they will score a TD as their 3rd down conversion rate in the RZ is one of the best in the nation.

 

[Dizzyphil]

The best betting man's stat for this weekend is the Irish is 2-0 vs the spread away. At home they are 2-3. Now would be the time to lay the money because if many start betting on the Irish, the number will rise.

 

[BGIF]

-23.5

 

[Irishize]

Listening to BGI podcast today it sounds like Navy has abandoned using Perry as their QB so he will return to slot back while Garrett Lewis plays QB. Driskell wondered why they don’t insert Zach Abbey back at QB. Kid ran for 1400 yds last year and averaged more per carry than Lewis.

 

[Dizzyphil]

Listening to BGI podcast today it sounds like Navy has abandoned using Perry as their QB so he will return to slot back while Garrett Lewis plays QB. Driskell wondered why they don’t insert Zach Abbey back at QB. Kid ran for 1400 yds last year and averaged more per carry than Lewis.

Found that odd as well. Navy (again) is high on the rushing offense (#3) this year. Guess they are going to try and confuse the Irish D ???

 

[T-Boone]

Question for triple option understanders.
If the QB passes could this be a sign the triple option isn't working well? So if you went back and saw that Navy are passing 15 times a game this season whereas they were passing 8 times a game last season then the machine isn't rolling all that well?

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Question for triple option understanders.
If the QB passes could this be a sign the triple option isn't working well? So if you went back and saw that Navy are passing 15 times a game this season whereas they were passing 8 times a game last season then the machine isn't rolling all that well?

An increase in passing rate is almost always a terrible sign for a triple option team. When they're rolling, opponents start selling out against the run, so they'll pass occasionally as a constraint play for huge gains. If they're passing a lot, it means they're behind and can't afford to burn the clock with their usual game plan.

 

[ulukinatme]

Question for triple option understanders.
If the QB passes could this be a sign the triple option isn't working well? So if you went back and saw that Navy are passing 15 times a game this season whereas they were passing 8 times a game last season then the machine isn't rolling all that well?

Quite possibly, but it could be they want to be more balanced to avoid stacking the box against the run.

 

[Irish YJ]

Whatever ratio they have....
Navy is still top 5 rushing y/g. They are still a bottom 5 passing y/g.

I think the reason you are seeing more passing is simply because they are playing from behind more than they are used to. Their D is easily the worst D they've had in the last 5 years.

 

[Huntr]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Wrote about a potential shift along the offensive line today. Here’s Trevor Ruhland working at right guard, which means Aaron Banks would/should be at left guard. <a href="https://t.co/xGuRm0g40L">https://t.co/xGuRm0g40L</a></p>— Pete Sampson (@PeteSampson_) <a href="https://twitter.com/PeteSampson_/status/1054542321193230337?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 23, 2018</a></blockquote>

 

[BGIF]

Listening to BGI podcast today it sounds like Navy has abandoned using Perry as their QB so he will return to slot back while Garrett Lewis plays QB. Driskell wondered why they don’t insert Zach Abbey back at QB. Kid ran for 1400 yds last year and averaged more per carry than Lewis.

Question for triple option understanders.
If the QB passes could this be a sign the triple option isn't working well? So if you went back and saw that Navy are passing 15 times a game this season whereas they were passing 8 times a game last season then the machine isn't rolling all that well?

The increase in passing is supposed to be by design. Last Spring Niumatalolo moved Abey from QB reportedly to create more of a passing attack with Perry within the option attack. They tried Abey at FB but Niumatalolo said it takes more than a year to learn that position and they were deep there. So he ended up at WR. But he's the Go To QB in short yardage and goal line situations. He's Navy's scoring leader with 7 TDs ... all from under center. Something like 20 carries for 7 scores while not 1 catch at WR. Navy receivers are still blockers first.

Last year Abey missed some games with a shoulder injury and I believe he's missed 2 games this year with a similar injury. Perry is a better passer but I'm thinking the pounding Abey took for those 1400 yards last season may have physically forced the move from QB. Perry hasn't had the desired effect passing. Lewis has about twice as many yards passing as Perry. Perry is also listed as "injured ? for ND" in the NCAA Injury Report. So Lewis is the logical choice.

That said, Abey will now run for a Navy record and Perry will toss a couple of TD passes from a gurney.

 

[T-Boone]

Thanks for all the info on triple option.
I am starting to feel like I understand it enough to be able to yell at the television when one of our guys screws up.

 

[ulukinatme]

Thanks for all the info on triple option.
I am starting to feel like I understand it enough to be able to yell at the television when one of our guys screws up.

A big part is setting the edge. If the DE/OLB can force everything inside it bodes well for keeping the play to a short gain. If the Navy offense gets the edge it's bad news. Obviously if they hand off to the FB and we don't clog up the middle that causes a problem, but if Tillery is there I feel good. Even as a Freshman Tillery did an excellent job shutting down the FB when he was in, but there were times BVG switched him out and we got gashed through the A gap.

 

[T-Boone]

A big part is setting the edge. If the DE/OLB can force everything inside it bodes well for keeping the play to a short gain. If the Navy offense gets the edge it's bad news. Obviously if they hand off to the FB and we don't clog up the middle that causes a problem, but if Tillery is there I feel good. Even as a Freshman Tillery did an excellent job shutting down the FB when he was in, but there were times BVG switched him out and we got gashed through the A gap.

Yeah I watch a youtube coach give a breakdown on how to defend it which makes me think Bilal, Simon, Okwara will be important. Obviously Gilman is going to be a pretty awesome resource as well.

 

[Irishize]

The increase in passing is supposed to be by design. Last Spring Niumatalolo moved Abey from QB reportedly to create more of a passing attack with Perry within the option attack. They tried Abey at FB but Niumatalolo said it takes more than a year to learn that position and they were deep there. So he ended up at WR. But he's the Go To QB in short yardage and goal line situations. He's Navy's scoring leader with 7 TDs ... all from under center. Something like 20 carries for 7 scores while not 1 catch at WR. Navy receivers are still blockers first.

Last year Abey missed some games with a shoulder injury and I believe he's missed 2 games this year with a similar injury. Perry is a better passer but I'm thinking the pounding Abey took for those 1400 yards last season may have physically forced the move from QB. Perry hasn't had the desired effect passing. Lewis has about twice as many yards passing as Perry. Perry is also listed as "injured ? for ND" in the NCAA Injury Report. So Lewis is the logical choice.

That said, Abey will now run for a Navy record and Perry will toss a couple of TD passes from a gurney.

Ha ha! So true. Thanks for the update

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Does anyone else have the feeling that Gilman is going to go off in this game? Thinking like 12 tackles, 1 FF.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

I poked around a little bit and couldn't find anything, so I apologize if this was covered elsewhere.

Is Jafar Armstrong available for Saturday? Or is he still doubtful until further notice? Thanks in advance, gents.

 

[fightingirish26]

I poked around a little bit and couldn't find anything, so I apologize if this was covered elsewhere.

Is Jafar Armstrong available for Saturday? Or is he still doubtful until further notice? Thanks in advance, gents.

Depth chart lists Tony Jones OR Dexter Williams OR Jafar Armstrong OR Avery Davis

 

[calvegas04]

No press conference today?

 

[Rudy89]

I know prime time means more eyes on the game but I really wish this was an 11:30 game like years past. I’m gonna be day drinking anyway night as well get one of the most stressful games of the year over and done with early!

 

[EvilleIrish]

No press conference today?

Always starts at noon ET

 

[arrowryan]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Brian Kelly says Jafar Armstrong will play on Saturday against Navy - back from knee infection injury that sidelined him Stanford week.</p>— Olivia Ray (@OliviaRayWSBT) <a href="https://twitter.com/OliviaRayWSBT/status/1054769125388632065?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 23, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BK on injuries- “Jafar Armstrong practiced yesterday and will play Saturday. Biggest issue will be how much he will play. Troy Pride was full go. “</p>— Adam Derengowski (@AdamDerWSBT) <a href="https://twitter.com/AdamDerWSBT/status/1054768519370412039?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 23, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Brian Kelly says that Jafar Armstrong practiced on Monday and will play on Saturday. Unclear how many carries he’ll get in the first game back.<br><br>Troy Pride also back, got all the first-team reps on Monday.</p>— Pete Sampson (@PeteSampson_) <a href="https://twitter.com/PeteSampson_/status/1054768522067410944?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 23, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[arrowryan]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">"He's been emerging." BK on Aaron Banks taking over the starting spot at LG.</p>— Irish Sports Daily (@ISDUpdate) <a href="https://twitter.com/ISDUpdate/status/1054766164038115328?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 23, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Aaron Banks will start at left guard against Navy. Kelly says the sophomore has been “emerging” at the position. “Still have a lot of confidence in Ruhland and Kraemer."</p>— Pete Sampson (@PeteSampson_) <a href="https://twitter.com/PeteSampson_/status/1054766240848404481?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 23, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">"They'll both play." - BK on Trevor Ruhland/Tommy Kraemer at RG</p>— Irish Sports Daily (@ISDUpdate) <a href="https://twitter.com/ISDUpdate/status/1054766461527486464?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 23, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[arrowryan]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Asked about kickoff duties, “it’s really Jonathan’s job … we need him to get through some of these technical areas.” No switch to Justin Yoon over Doerer.</p>— Pete Sampson (@PeteSampson_) <a href="https://twitter.com/PeteSampson_/status/1054766736657039361?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 23, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Brian Kelly says the bye week came at a good time.</p>— Pete Sampson (@PeteSampson_) <a href="https://twitter.com/PeteSampson_/status/1054770810131566592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 23, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>