Bowl Predictions 2019

[IrishLax]

So right now there is no ACC #2 in the AP Poll, and it seems possible that no second ACC team will be ranked in the CFP poll at the end of the year.

ND is going to need a lot of things to fall in line for them to leapfrog all of these SEC teams and get a NY6 birth as things stand.

Ideally, ND would want to see something like this happen...

Playoff is LSU, Clemson, Ohio State, and Oregon.

Sugar is Bama against Oklahoma
Rose is Utah against Penn State

No second ACC team finishes ranked. Wisconsin picks up a third loss against Ohio State, again in convincing fashion. Michigan loses to Ohio State. Minnesota picks up Ls to Iowa and Wisconsin. Baylor loses to Texas and Oklahoma. Auburn loses to either Bama or Georgia.

This leaves ND with 3 spots they can slot into... one will be spoken for by Georgia, the other would be spoken for by Florida in this scenario. The last goes to ND.

But there are so many chaos scenarios... like Georgia losing to Auburn but then winning the SEC by beating LSU... that it's almost impossible to project right now what will happen. But it's almost assured that the highest ND will finish will be somewhere around ~9th and the lowest will be ~12th if they win the rest of their games.

All in all, this year has illustrated a MAJOR flaw in the playoff process where "bowl tie ins" may be honored to teams that aren't good... specifically because there are half as many "at large" spots as normal. It is quite conceivable that ND could finish somewhere around 9th or 10th in the final CFP poll and not go to a NY6 game. That should not be possible, but it is because this is a strange year.

 

[Armyirish47]

So right now there is no ACC #2 in the AP Poll, and it seems possible that no second ACC team will be ranked in the CFP poll at the end of the year.

ND is going to need a lot of things to fall in line for them to leapfrog all of these SEC teams and get a NY6 birth as things stand.

Ideally, ND would want to see something like this happen...

Playoff is LSU, Clemson, Ohio State, and Oregon.

Sugar is Bama against Oklahoma
Rose is Utah against Penn State

No second ACC team finishes ranked. Wisconsin picks up a third loss against Ohio State, again in convincing fashion. Michigan loses to Ohio State. Minnesota picks up Ls to Iowa and Wisconsin. Baylor loses to Texas and Oklahoma. Auburn loses to either Bama or Georgia.

This leaves ND with 3 spots they can slot into... one will be spoken for by Georgia, the other would be spoken for by Florida in this scenario. The last goes to ND.

But there are so many chaos scenarios... like Georgia losing to Auburn but then winning the SEC by beating LSU... that it's almost impossible to project right now what will happen. But it's almost assured that the highest ND will finish will be somewhere around ~9th and the lowest will be ~12th if they win the rest of their games.

All in all, this year has illustrated a MAJOR flaw in the playoff process where "bowl tie ins" may be honored to teams that aren't good... specifically because there are half as many "at large" spots as normal. It is quite conceivable that ND could finish somewhere around 9th or 10th in the final CFP poll and not go to a NY6 game. That should not be possible, but it is because this is a strange year.

I haven't put the links together yet, but I think that is why a fair number of projections are starting to push us into the Camping World Bowl in Orlando no matter how we finish. Depending on a fans level of pessimism that could be a blessing in disguise?

 

[NDdomer2]

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28048653/college-football-bowl-projections

Camping World Bowl
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida
Dec. 28, noon, ABC
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Texas
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma State

 

[zelezo vlk]

Beating Texas in a bowl game would be sweeeeeeeeet

 

[irishnd31]

Beating Texas in a bowl game would be sweeeeeeeeet

This would be a fun one and a game I think would peak the interest of many college football fans.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

So right now there is no ACC #2 in the AP Poll, and it seems possible that no second ACC team will be ranked in the CFP poll at the end of the year.

ND is going to need a lot of things to fall in line for them to leapfrog all of these SEC teams and get a NY6 birth as things stand.

Ideally, ND would want to see something like this happen...

Playoff is LSU, Clemson, Ohio State, and Oregon.

Sugar is Bama against Oklahoma
Rose is Utah against Penn State

No second ACC team finishes ranked. Wisconsin picks up a third loss against Ohio State, again in convincing fashion. Michigan loses to Ohio State. Minnesota picks up Ls to Iowa and Wisconsin. Baylor loses to Texas and Oklahoma. Auburn loses to either Bama or Georgia.

This leaves ND with 3 spots they can slot into... one will be spoken for by Georgia, the other would be spoken for by Florida in this scenario. The last goes to ND.

But there are so many chaos scenarios... like Georgia losing to Auburn but then winning the SEC by beating LSU... that it's almost impossible to project right now what will happen. But it's almost assured that the highest ND will finish will be somewhere around ~9th and the lowest will be ~12th if they win the rest of their games.

All in all, this year has illustrated a MAJOR flaw in the playoff process where "bowl tie ins" may be honored to teams that aren't good... specifically because there are half as many "at large" spots as normal. It is quite conceivable that ND could finish somewhere around 9th or 10th in the final CFP poll and not go to a NY6 game. That should not be possible, but it is because this is a strange year.

Are you sure that no ACC team in the CFP rankings (aside from Clemson in the CFP) will cost them their Orange Bowl slot?

 

[Irishize]

The Camping World Bowl would likely feature a brand name opponent whereas the Cotton Bowl would be a face off vs a G5 school.

 

[ACamp1900]

No Texas... honestly almost anyone but Texas.... because acamp reasons.

 

[SouthernIndianaNDFan]

I haven't put the links together yet, but I think that is why a fair number of projections are starting to push us into the Camping World Bowl in Orlando no matter how we finish. Depending on a fans level of pessimism that could be a blessing in disguise?

Yeah, could be a blessing in disguise. How embarrassing would it be to get smashed on the national stage by a G5 opponent?

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28048653/college-football-bowl-projections

ND vs Texas in the "We're Still Not Back Bowl."

 

[Whiskeyjack]

All in all, this year has illustrated a MAJOR flaw in the playoff process where "bowl tie ins" may be honored to teams that aren't good... specifically because there are half as many "at large" spots as normal. It is quite conceivable that ND could finish somewhere around 9th or 10th in the final CFP poll and not go to a NY6 game. That should not be possible, but it is because this is a strange year.

Crazy that's even a possibility, but I'll believe it when I see it. The FBS is driven by money, so it'll likely be a cold day in hell when a bowl committee passes over a top-10 Irish squad in favor of some unranked ACC team.

 

[Rudy89]

This is my take and I know people are gonna think it’s a terrible way of thinking but it’s how I feel....I would rather go to a minor-mid level bowl against a shitty opponent and win than go to the NY6 and be humiliated once again. The perception and state of ND football is totally the same from anyone not in this fanbase under both circumstances.

We go to the NY6 and it ends up being like every other time we have gone to a BCS/NY6 bowl game the rest of the college football world will be saying “getting really tired of this overrated mid-major school with nothing but it’s past getting the nod in the NY6 over *insert other 1-2 loss team that didn’t make it.” every year they make it in these bowls they show why they don’t deserve this special treatment. Hard to argue with them and despite making it to a big game being destroyed sucks the wind out of the sails of getting to go from my perspective.

We go to the Belk or Camping World bowl where we have a bit better of a chance of winning (and let’s say we do win). The rest of college football fans will say “oh you’re proud of winning that irrelevant game please you couldn’t compete if your bowl was against *PSU, OSU, Bama, LSU, UF, OU, etc* but your fanbase and the pollsters will keep overrating your mid-major team by wins in mid level bowl games.

The perception will always be the same so with this team we have now which After the Michigan game I have zero faith in to compete with the top teams in the NY6 I would rather finish the season with a win and a smile than a memory of being overmatched and embarrassed....again.

There’s a reason why I look back more fondly at the 2013 and 2017 seasons compared to the 2006 and 2015 seasons. Perception from the outside was the same after both years but at least we ended the season in a nice way.

 

[SouthernIndianaNDFan]

This is my take and I know people are gonna think it’s a terrible way of thinking but it’s how I feel....I would rather go to a minor-mid level bowl against a shitty opponent and win than go to the NY6 and be humiliated once again. The perception and state of ND football is totally the same from anyone not in this fanbase under both circumstances.

We go to the NY6 and it ends up being like every other time we have gone to a BCS/NY6 bowl game the rest of the college football world will be saying “getting really tired of this overrated mid-major school with nothing but it’s past getting the nod in the NY6 over *insert other 1-2 loss team that didn’t make it.” every year they make it in these bowls they show why they don’t deserve this special treatment. Hard to argue with them and despite making it to a big game being destroyed sucks the wind out of the sails of getting to go from my perspective.

We go to the Belk or Camping World bowl where we have a bit better of a chance of winning (and let’s say we do win). The rest of college football fans will say “oh you’re proud of winning that irrelevant game please you couldn’t compete if your bowl was against *PSU, OSU, Bama, LSU, UF, OU, etc* but your fanbase and the pollsters will keep overrating your mid-major team by wins in mid level bowl games.

The perception will always be the same so with this team we have now which After the Michigan game I have zero faith in to compete with the top teams in the NY6 I would rather finish the season with a win and a smile than a memory of being overmatched and embarrassed....again.

There’s a reason why I look back more fondly at the 2013 and 2017 seasons compared to the 2006 and 2015 seasons. Perception from the outside was the same after both years but at least we ended the season in a nice way.

The sad part is they're right. We haven't done shit in almost 30 years.

 

[stlnd01]

Crazy that's even a possibility, but I'll believe it when I see it. The FBS is driven by money, so it'll likely be a cold day in hell when a bowl committee passes over a top-10 Irish squad in favor of some unranked ACC team.

Especially when, as is quite possible, that top ten Notre Dame team will have already defeated the unranked ACC team in question.

 

[stlnd01]

This is my take and I know people are gonna think it’s a terrible way of thinking but it’s how I feel....I would rather go to a minor-mid level bowl against a shitty opponent and win than go to the NY6 and be humiliated once again. The perception and state of ND football is totally the same from anyone not in this fanbase under both circumstances.

I like to win the bowl game too, and bowl games can be hard to predict, for motivation reasons, but are we more likely to beat Texas in the Camping World Bowl than Cincy or Memphis in the Cotton Bowl?

 

[Rudy89]

I like to win the bowl game too, and bowl games can be hard to predict, for motivation reasons, but are we more likely to beat Texas in the Camping World Bowl than Cincy or Memphis in the Cotton Bowl?

The thing is we never get matched up with Cincy or a Memphis we get a team that was one win away from the national title game or one that we just don’t match up with very well. 2005 we got matched up with Ohio State who was just head and shoulders better than us. We didn’t get matched up with Florida State who we maybe could’ve competed with. 2006 we got matched up with LSU who was arguably a win away from taking UF’s spot in the title game. We didn’t get matched up with Wake Forest who we could’ve beaten. Could we possibly beta a team like that in the NY6....ehhh maybe after being humiliated on national tv by a team that isn’t even as good as them I have my doubts but I doubt we would get matched up with them. We would get matched up with Bama, Florida, Penn State, Ohio State, or any team that arguably is the best team not to make the playoffs and (excuse me for being a bad fan but a realist) with the team we have now our chances would be slim to none of beating one of them.

 

[Valpodoc85]

IMO you go to the best bowl you can get into, play your best game and let the chips fall where they may. You evaluate the program at the end of the year and decide the best path forward. Except for DB recruiting things are looking up.

 

[stlnd01]

The thing is we never get matched up with Cincy or a Memphis we get a team that was one win away from the national title game or one that we just don’t match up with very well. 2005 we got matched up with Ohio State who was just head and shoulders better than us. We didn’t get matched up with Florida State who we maybe could’ve competed with. 2006 we got matched up with LSU who was arguably a win away from taking UF’s spot in the title game. We didn’t get matched up with Wake Forest who we could’ve beaten. Could we possibly beta a team like that in the NY6....ehhh maybe after being humiliated on national tv by a team that isn’t even as good as them I have my doubts but I doubt we would get matched up with them. We would get matched up with Bama, Florida, Penn State, Ohio State, or any team that arguably is the best team not to make the playoffs and (excuse me for being a bad fan but a realist) with the team we have now our chances would be slim to none of beating one of them.

Fine. And historically you’re right. But the way the bowl arrangements fall this year the most likely NY6 bowl we’d land in would be an at-large bid to the Cotton Bowl, against the best G5 team (which is apparently likely either Cincy or Memphis).
Another potential (though now less likely) outcome would be Orange vs ACC’s No. 2. That’s going to be Virginia, Va. Tech or Wake.
A third possibility, which Lax raises, is that we displace ACC No. 2 in the Orange and play someone like Georgia. In which case I may agree with you that Texas would be preferable.

 

[calvegas04]

No Texas... honestly almost anyone but Texas.... because acamp reasons.

Is UT your back up school?

 

[ulukinatme]

Is UT your back up school?

When you move to Texas, they force you to choose a team and you're branded right at the border. ACamp chose UT.

 

[ThePiombino]

Fine. And historically you’re right. But the way the bowl arrangements fall this year the most likely NY6 bowl we’d land in would be an at-large bid to the Cotton Bowl, against the best G5 team (which is apparently likely either Cincy or Memphis).

Another potential (though now less likely) outcome would be Orange vs ACC’s No. 2. That’s going to be Virginia, Va. Tech or Wake.

A third possibility, which Lax raises, is that we displace ACC No. 2 in the Orange and play someone like Georgia. In which case I may agree with you that Texas would be preferable.

How would we supplant ACC #2? I thought we were contractually written out of that possibility.

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[bcole2]

I sat down and made a chart to break it down because I have nothing better to do. I posted this in another thread last week. This is updated after this week's games. 15 teams were ahead of us in the CFP rankings. Bold and underline currently means they are spoken for in either the CFP, Rose or Sugar (bowls we can't get into). The rest will be eligible for 2 spots: Orange (Big 10/SEC/ND) or Cotton (at large) spots. The number next to a conference means the number of teams that need to be bold/underline in order for us to make it. One of the SEC or Big 10 must have all 5 teams taken care of. A team can become bold/underline by moving behind us in the rankings. Some of these are just my projections of course.

SEC (4 or 5)
LSU, Georgia, Alabama, Florida, Auburn

Big Ten (4 or 5)
Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State

Pac 12 (2)
Oregon, Utah

Big 12 (2)
Oklahoma, Baylor

ACC (1)
Clemson

This is using my projection of LSU, Ohio State, Clemson and Oregon for the CFP. Rose would be Utah vs. Penn State. Sugar would be Georgia vs. Oklahoma. Predicting Minnesota, Baylor, and Auburn will drop behind us. I can see all 5 Big Ten teams being taken care of, but I don't see a way that we pass Alabama and Florida in the rankings. Meaning Alabama and Florida would take the Cotton and Orange Bowl spots.

 

[317Irish]

I sat down and made a chart to break it down because I have nothing better to do. I posted this in another thread last week. This is updated after this week's games. 15 teams were ahead of us in the CFP rankings. Bold and underline currently means they are spoken for in either the CFP, Rose or Sugar (bowls we can't get into). The rest will be eligible for 2 spots: Orange (Big 10/SEC/ND) or Cotton (at large) spots. The number next to a conference means the number of teams that need to be bold/underline in order for us to make it. One of the SEC or Big 10 must have all 5 teams taken care of. A team can become bold/underline by moving behind us in the rankings. Some of these are just my projections of course.

SEC (4 or 5)
LSU, Georgia, Alabama, Florida, Auburn

Big Ten (4 or 5)
Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State

Pac 12 (2)
Oregon, Utah

Big 12 (2)
Oklahoma, Baylor

ACC (1)
Clemson

This is using my projection of LSU, Ohio State, Clemson and Oregon for the CFP. Rose would be Utah vs. Penn State. Sugar would be Georgia vs. Oklahoma. Predicting Minnesota, Baylor, and Auburn will drop behind us. I can see all 5 Big Ten teams being taken care of, but I don't see a way that we pass Alabama and Florida in the rankings. Meaning Alabama and Florida would take the Cotton and Orange Bowl spots.

Does this take into account projected losses coming up (Ohio state likely beating penn state)?

 

[bcole2]

Does this take into account projected losses coming up (Ohio state likely beating penn state)?

Not so much. I only highlighted teams that are in current position for specific bowls (except for Georgia I guess, I'm predicting a loss to LSU and they fall out of the top 4) You could very well swap in Wisconsin or Minnesota as the Rose Bowl team. And with likely upcoming losses for Penn State and Michigan, they will probably all become highlighted in the Big 10.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

I sat down and made a chart to break it down because I have nothing better to do. I posted this in another thread last week. This is updated after this week's games. 15 teams were ahead of us in the CFP rankings. Bold and underline currently means they are spoken for in either the CFP, Rose or Sugar (bowls we can't get into). The rest will be eligible for 2 spots: Orange (Big 10/SEC/ND) or Cotton (at large) spots. The number next to a conference means the number of teams that need to be bold/underline in order for us to make it. One of the SEC or Big 10 must have all 5 teams taken care of. A team can become bold/underline by moving behind us in the rankings. Some of these are just my projections of course.

SEC (4 or 5)
LSU, Georgia, Alabama, Florida, Auburn

Big Ten (4 or 5)
Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State

Pac 12 (2)
Oregon, Utah

Big 12 (2)
Oklahoma, Baylor

ACC (1)
Clemson

This is using my projection of LSU, Ohio State, Clemson and Oregon for the CFP. Rose would be Utah vs. Penn State. Sugar would be Georgia vs. Oklahoma. Predicting Minnesota, Baylor, and Auburn will drop behind us. I can see all 5 Big Ten teams being taken care of, but I don't see a way that we pass Alabama and Florida in the rankings. Meaning Alabama and Florida would take the Cotton and Orange Bowl spots.

If Florida State could some how pull an upset over Florida...Highly unlikely, but it is possible.


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[stpeteirish]

Florida will have the inside track for the Orange Bowl at large bid. Cotton is wide open, we have a shot there. Would they take Baylor (with 2 losses to Okla) over us? Or a 2 loss Pac12 team?

ND's TV power will help and for once it wouldn't push us into a match up vs a clearly superior team as these Group of 5 contenders all look less than powerful.

Have to hope the SEC gets two in the playoffs.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

The orange 100% takes 10-2 Penn State or 9-3 Michigan over 10-2 ND right? I dont see how you could justify the opposite


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[ThePiombino]

The orange 100% takes 10-2 Penn State or 9-3 Michigan over 10-2 ND right? I dont see how you could justify the opposite


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I think that they are contractually obligated to do so, no?

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[dad4aa]

I think that they are contractually obligated to do so, no?

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I don’t think this is right as some projections have Notre Dame going to the orange against Florida but not sure

 

[ThePiombino]

I don’t think this is right as some projections have Notre Dame going to the orange against Florida but not sure

I think we need to be the highest ranked of teams among the SEC and B10 non-CFP teams.

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