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Chris Wilson (Rakes of Mallow) on fall camp:
He's always a good read. Click on that link at the bottom if you're inclined to subscribe.
Overall the reports from camp have been positive, but the banner headline — and the topic we discussed at the top of the podcast with Laken — is that Brandon Wimbush has been up and down. Last Thursday he looked as good as he ever has, on Saturday he was awful in warm ups and okay-to-good in live action depending on who you listen to and then Wednesday he was a mixed bag. While it would have been ideal for him to be in guns blazing mode all August just for the collective mental health of Irish fans, it was still going to be on Wimbush to perform against Michigan before everyone believed he had taken the next step.
Even if Wimbush still struggles with the short stuff, Chip Long has plenty with which to work. On Monday’s episode of Podcast Ain’t Played Nobody, there was a discussion of Joe Moorhead’s offense jumping from Penn State to where he was coordinator to Mississippi State where he is now head coach.* In Happy Valley, he had Trace McSorley, who could drop 40-yarders on a dime. In Starkville, it’ll be Nick Fitzgerald, who’s quite good but ran the option in high school and doesn’t have the bombability of McSorley. This is not exactly a wild concept, but certain quarterbacks have certain skillsets and you can mitigate weaknesses by tailoring your playbook accordingly. Long has had an entire offseason to figure out what works and what maybe doesn't work with his supremely talented but potentially flawed quarterback.
* Moorhead is really appealing as a candidate for next Notre Dame coach if Kelly sticks around a few more seasons. Mississippi State is stacked this year, so Moorhead will get to prove he can deliver with a talented roster and then show he’s capable of rebuilding it. I guess there is a hypothetical world where the Bulldogs are great this year, the Irish are really bad and Moorhead is coaching in South Bend next season, but I’m looking at this as more of a medium-term thing.
A factor that made Wimbush’s struggles last year even worse was that they came as a surprise to all involved. This was a guy who was very accurate in practice settings, so both the offensive staff and Wimbush himself were caught off guard and the scheme that had been installed all camp was now wobbly when his accuracy dipped. Now Long knows that there are potential plays he has to set aside if Wimbush can’t correct all of his mental and mechanical issues but that useful information doesn't have to be a hindrance. (Long also knows that “Let’s run Adams behind McGlinchey and Nelson" is no longer an option so he's got to be more creative overall.) This still leaves plenty of things that Wimbush is good at, mainly running real fast and throwing bombs at a decently accurate clip. What does Notre Dame have in bulk? Giant wide receivers and tight ends, which are good for both a) Blocking in the run game b) Going up and catching passes against shorter defensive backs down the field. Just do that! Replace swing passes with jet sweeps and then on the next play chuck it up.
Chase Claypool, Miles Boykin, Cole Kmet, Alize Mack, Nic Weishar and Brock Wright are all 6’4” or above. Freshman wide receiver Kevin Austin — who’s been drawing Michael Floyd comparisons and has looked the part in camp even if that remains incredibly blasphemous — is a sturdy 6’2”. Just run the dang ball and then keep the opposing safeties honest by chucking it deep every few plays. Wimbush was solid at deep balls last year, and that’s with his receivers having horrible numbers on 50/50 plays. There’s no shame in having a limited playbook if that limited playbook works, as some of Gus Malzahn’s cool Auburn teams spring to mind as potential comparisons.
(This whole “Run it a bunch and chuck it deep” strategy is dependent on Wimbush at least being able to give his receivers a chance. If the balls are going short or aimed at his very tall and equally invisible friend Todd, then it’s going to be tough to keep him in the lineup if he also hasn’t improved his accuracy on the shorter RPO stuff. When he was good last year — think early against Southern Cal and NC State, or the Sparty game — he was connecting downfield, so it's possible.)
And the concern about shattering Wimbush’s confidence if he has to come out of the Michigan game? Perhaps have it understood by the quarterback room in advance that Ian Book might come in to mix it up with some RPOs and assorted stuff he’s good at on a series or two. Wimbush’s confidence is important but it’s not as important as winning the Michigan game by any means necessary. Considering what we know about Brian Kelly’s willingness to swap quarterbacks, the quality of Michigan’s defense, the potential struggles of Wimbush and the success of Book in relief, I would be surprised if we didn’t see Book in the opener. If we don’t, that’s probably a great sign, but playing Book is not necessarily the end of the world.
(It's also good that Book has been playing well enough to make this a conversation, as it means they can fully utilize Wimbush's legs without the concern that one hit on him could derail the entire season. You can win a bunch of games with Book, it's just that the upside is higher with Wimbush.)
Bonus reading: Brendan Reilly at 18 Stripes crunches the numbers on Wimbush vs. Book. The TD and turnover numbers are rather stark, although usual caveat on small sample sizes.
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Almost all the camp news about the defense is good. Some of that news:
* Nick Coleman has appeared to take a mini-leap or potentially full-on leap at safety and will likely start next to Alohi Gilman. A few of us were discussing the idea that Coleman might be able to slide into a Matthias Farley super-sub/nickel role but he’s earned rave reviews from both Kelly and the media who have seen practice and moved beyond that. Houston Griffith got banged up but is apparently working his way back, which gives the Irish some fun stuff at the back of the defense.
* The corners are maybe elite? Julian Love and Troy Pride have the potential to dominate, then you have Shaun Crawford looking healthy again in the nickel, Donte Vaughn bouncing back from a sophomore slump/apparent back injury as a fourth option and then some interesting freshmen. More on these gentlemen below.
* Asmar Bilal and Shayne Simon have both done good stuff at rover, per observers. The best case was the more experienced Bilal being ready to go against Michigan’s power run on opening night and reports are positive from camp that he’s around the ball and making plays. Te’Von Coney and Drue Tranquill are still playing like the guys who combined for just over 200 tackles last year. Still some questions about linebacker depth so let us hope the seniors stay vertical all year.
* Good reviews for most everyone on the defensive line except kind of Daelin Hayes, who was dealing with some tendinitis and is working in a reserve role behind Julian Okwara. Hayes should be fine in the long run and with guys like redshirt sophomore Ade Ogundeji and some freshmen earning some love I truly don’t know if the Irish have had defensive line depth like this in the Kelly era. Will that translate to a consistent pass rush? We’ll see!
Bonus reading: Rookie site Notre Dame, Our Blogger gives a rundown of what you can maybe expect from Shea Patterson on opening night. Please frequent this site so they keep writing because I need more Notre Dame content in my life this fall. And then Irish Sports Daily’s Jamie Uyeyama attempts to get a read on Michigan’s camp despite Ann Arbor being on lock down. Clark Lea needs to be ready for everything from Jim Harbaugh’s usual power to the spread RPO stuff Patterson ran in Oxford. Last night I had a moment of peace that lasted about four minutes where I thought "You know, I'm okay with whatever result occurs the night of September 1." That moment then passed.
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A few other assorted notes:
* Justin Yoon is looking good and Kelly said he's increased his range to 50+. Barring injury or really weird circumstances, he will be the all-time leading scorer in school history.
* Projected starting right tackle Robert Hainsey missed some practice time with a calf injury but is expected to return early next week. Considering Hainsey's starting experience last year and what his injury meant for shuffling players around in his absence, his health is rather important to this operation so hopefully he's back to 100 percent by next week.
* Kelly compared Jafar Armstrong to Theo Riddick, which is...well folks, that is high praise. It seems like Tony Jones is set to be the starter but Armstrong — who converted from wide receiver — could be a big factor in the offense. Avery Davis is doing some cool things as well, but I'm still concerned about having enough carries on the depth chart if the freshmen aren't used (which they might be as the season rolls on).
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If you’re searching for reason to feel good about the defense beyond nice words from camp and statistical prognostications, might I direct you to January 1st and the final drive of the Citrus Bowl for some visual examples? Mike Elko is gone but Notre Dame is running a similar system with very similar talent. Let’s fire it up on the ol’ YouTube. (That link should take you to the correct time stamp but if not you want 2:12:49 to follow along. I also recommend maybe scrolling back a few minutes to see the goal line stand and Boykin heroics if you have the time because it still rules very much.)
Your scenario: Notre Dame is up 21-17 following the Boykin touchdown. There are 80 seconds left and LSU is at its own 23 with two timeouts, so more than enough time in college football. Game log time:
1st and 10: Danny Etling tries to squeeze in a short pass to the left sideline between a dropping Daelin Hayes and a hard-charging Julian Love. Waved incomplete.
2nd and 10: Notre Dame sends Jalen Elliott on a safety blitz and almost murders Etling, who lobs one up the right sideline. Shaun Crawford is running stride for stride with LSU receiver Derrick Dillon, a four-star freshman who was ranked 166th in the 247 Composite. The pass falls incomplete.
3rd and 10: The Irish get solid pressure with their defensive line while bailing both linebackers away from the line. Etling makes a nice play, escaping Julian Okwara and running for 13 yards up the middle before being tackled by a bunch of Irish people including Drue Tranquill and Elliott.
1st and 10: Etling tries a quick out to the right and it’s nearly pick sixed by Love. Daelin Hayes gets a nice pressure and a hand up on the throw, but I can’t tell if it affects the play or it was just a bad throw. The pass was to DJ Chark, who was a second-round pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.
2nd and 10: Nick Coleman comes on a delayed safety blitz and Etling throws it deep down the left side where Troy Pride is running stride for stride with Chark, who was selected with the 61st pick of the draft four months later. Incomplete.
3rd and 10: Notre Dame rushes just three and Etling has plenty of time thanks to a comically blatant hold on Okwara. He throws to the deep right sideline and Love almost makes another pick, breaking up the pass to Dee Anderson, a 6’6” sophomore who was the 185th ranked player in his class per the 247 Composite.
4th and 10: The Irish send Crawford on a corner blitz and he destroys Etling but the play is blown dead due to a false start. There are now 34 seconds left.
4th and 15: Daelin Hayes gets decent pressure but Etling still has time, which makes it odd that he throws about five yards short of the sticks to the tight end. Drue Tranquill is in coverage and it’s incomplete. If it were caught and Tranquill didn’t make the tackle, Coleman and Love are between the receiver and the line to gain.
The LSU passing offense was actually pretty solid in 2017, finishing 16th in the passing S&P+ and getting Etling selected in the draft’s final round by the Patriots. In addition to Chark going in the second round, receiver Russell Gage was a sixth rounder and center Will Clapp went in the 7th. (Derrius Guice was a second rounder, but he didn’t feature prominently in the final drive.) Notre Dame completely locked down that offense on a final drive, allowing zero completions and giving up a dozen yards on a quarterback scramble.
The other important thing? Every single name I singled out in that list above is back. As we discussed, it’s possible the drop-off from Elko to Lea is significant, but if it’s not this unit could be really special. And if they are special, that takes so much pressure off the offense to score every time, which should help the Run The Ball/Chuck It Deep find its sea legs. I really wish the Week One and Week Two opponents were switched, you guys.
Bonus reading: The Athletic’s Pete Sampson lets Love break down six plays from the 2017 season. As someone who doesn’t understand anything beyond the very basics of football, it’s always fun to see just how much these guys are processing on every single play. It’s the written equivalent of the coaches’ broadcast that ESPN has started doing for the playoff, where you realize how much is being processed instantaneously by those who really understand the game.
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Upcoming: A section I was going to do today but ran out of time was looking back at the success rate of in-season QB changes (and non-changes) Kelly has had at Notre Dame, so look for that at some point next week. (Hopefully it serves as a jinx and we have a nice steady season of Wimbush playing buuuuuut yeah we’ll see.)
Next week we’re also going to have Jamie Uyeyama on the pod for his now traditional rundown of every freshman on the roster, so if you want to know about the rookies get ready to speed up your podcast playback for a couple hours of quality audio content. We’re also maybe working on some merchandise, but I make no promises.
Is there any other preseason stuff you want looked at between now and game week? Drop me a line. I’ll plan on doing a brief preview for Michigan the Friday before the game, but honestly it’s going to be the newsletter equivalent of me gently rocking back and forth mumbling to myself.
If you enjoyed this, please consider sharing with the Irish fans in your life. There was a nice boost in subscribers after the opening of camp edition so thanks very much for your evangelism. Until we speak again, be kind to yourself and each other.
Rakes (of Mallow) Report: An Irish Newsletter by Chris Wilson
He's always a good read. Click on that link at the bottom if you're inclined to subscribe.
