2018 College Football Playoff

[IrishLion]

Has anyone purchased RSVPs (rights to buy tickets at face) to the semifinals or title game via the CFP website? I bought 2 for the semifinals after we beat Stanford but shortly after realized I had a wedding that day... Assuming all goes according to plan, and ND is in, I’m trying to figure out the best way to unload the tix. Buy the tickets then sell them in secondary market vs. selling the RSVPs via the CFP marketplace (albeit with a 20% transaction)? I’m also curious how much tickets, to at least the semifinal, would go for, given that face value is $175.

Go Irish ������������������������-0

You could just sell them to me for slightly above face value, and I will recoup your RSVP cost ;-)

 

[RDU Irish]

Has anyone purchased RSVPs (rights to buy tickets at face) to the semifinals or title game via the CFP website? I bought 2 for the semifinals after we beat Stanford but shortly after realized I had a wedding that day... Assuming all goes according to plan, and ND is in, I’m trying to figure out the best way to unload the tix. Buy the tickets then sell them in secondary market vs. selling the RSVPs via the CFP marketplace (albeit with a 20% transaction)? I’m also curious how much tickets, to at least the semifinal, would go for, given that face value is $175.

Go Irish ������������������������-0

The ND ticket will be hot - right now that RSVP is probably skyrocketing in value b/c it is a capped market. Scalping after you get the ticket will hit you for 15%-25% depending on the site used which would apply to your base ticket price. Then you have logistics of the whole thing. I would wager selling the RSVP now is not only your safe move but might be most profitable.

Just looked it up and strangely the Orange Bowl tickets are about double the Cotton Bowl tickets (minimum price to get in). I thought consensus had Bama in the Orange if Oklahoma is #4? Shoots my theory in the foot (Bama game much lower demand than ND game). Then again - Hard Rock holds 65k versus 92k at Jerry World so maybe raw supply is enough of an equalizer.

 

[Black Irish]

John Feinstein said on the radio this morning, if GA beats Bama the committee won't have them play again based on voting. They would put Bama vs Clemson and GA. vs ND. The sportscasters then said in that scenario, GA would be a 10+ favorite over ND on neutral field. I'm waiting on the podcast to be posted so I can link it.

Another problem with the Committee rankings. They will tinker around with the final rankings just to avoid a re-match of the SECCG. They will be implicitly saying "These aren't the actual final rankings of these teams, we just want to aim for good TV."

 

[hungryhippo]

John Feinstein said on the radio this morning, if GA beats Bama the committee won't have them play again based on voting. They would put Bama vs Clemson and GA. vs ND. The sportscasters then said in that scenario, GA would be a 10+ favorite over ND on neutral field. I'm waiting on the podcast to be posted so I can link it.

I know the conventional wisdom about not betting your team, but if that scenario played out and we open +10 or more against UGA, I'm betting the Irish.

 

[Bishop2b5]

Another problem with the Committee rankings. They will tinker around with the final rankings just to avoid a re-match of the SECCG. They will be implicitly saying "These aren't the actual final rankings of these teams, we just want to aim for good TV."

The final CFP rankings aren't always what the committee or anyone else actually thinks sometimes. Last year with Clemson at $1 and Bama at #4, most people, including Vegas, still thought Bama was the better team and had us as about a 7 point favorite. They shuffle teams around in the final top 4 CFP rankings to accommodate matchups and in response to resume, not necessarily in order of how strong they believe those 4 teams are to each other.

 

[Irish#1]

Another problem with the Committee rankings. They will tinker around with the final rankings just to avoid a re-match of the SECCG. They will be implicitly saying "These aren't the actual final rankings of these teams, we just want to aim for good TV."

Can't remember who it was on the radio, but the guy said he thinks they would match up Bama & UGA in the first round, to avoid an SEC rematch in the title game where it would hurt ratings and make selling tickets tougher. I thought that was an excellent point.

 

[stlnd01]

Just looked it up and strangely the Orange Bowl tickets are about double the Cotton Bowl tickets (minimum price to get in). I thought consensus had Bama in the Orange if Oklahoma is #4? Shoots my theory in the foot (Bama game much lower demand than ND game). Then again - Hard Rock holds 65k versus 92k at Jerry World so maybe raw supply is enough of an equalizer.

FWIW, the face value of tickets - at least the ones available through the ND alumni lottery - are about $50 higher for the Orange than the Cotton. $180 vs $130, IIRC. That and the stadium size may explain some of the difference.

 

[irishog77]

Can't remember who it was on the radio, but the guy said he thinks they would match up Bama & UGA in the first round, to avoid an SEC rematch in the title game where it would hurt ratings and make selling tickets tougher. I thought that was an excellent point.

But wouldn't it just make selling tickets tougher and hurt ratings to match them in the semifinal?

There are no guarantees they'd even meet in the finals, as one or both could lose.

 

[Irishize]

Interesting viewpoint...

http://www.statecollege.com/news/co...ome-surprising-data-may-hold-the-key,1478586/

 

[dad4aa]

Can't remember who it was on the radio, but the guy said he thinks they would match up Bama & UGA in the first round, to avoid an SEC rematch in the title game where it would hurt ratings and make selling tickets tougher. I thought that was an excellent point.

While it guarantees there will not be an all SEC final, it also guarantees there will be an SEC team in the final

 

[IrishLax]

Interesting viewpoint...

http://www.statecollege.com/news/co...ome-surprising-data-may-hold-the-key,1478586/

It really is, crazy how soft some other teams look once you adjust for FCS teams and non-Power 5 opponents.

 

[gkIrish]

Interesting viewpoint...

http://www.statecollege.com/news/co...ome-surprising-data-may-hold-the-key,1478586/

Jay Paterno is a journalist?

 

[irishog77]

Interesting viewpoint...

http://www.statecollege.com/news/co...ome-surprising-data-may-hold-the-key,1478586/

I wonder if the committee actually looks at numbers like these? I know they say they "look at data," but I wonder if they actually analyze it? The "eye test" is entirely subjective. I prefer objectiveness, especially when it is readily available (such as the case here).

I've maintained since the dawn of the CFP that it is basically like having SID's doing voting for coaches. Almost all the members of the committee are busy people that have other responsibilities, and not actually dedicating the required time to form much objectivism. Committee members have others feed them some type of data, then they make a subjective determination based on group dynamics.

 

[Irishize]

It really is, crazy how soft some other teams look once you adjust for FCS teams and non-Power 5 opponents.

It also shows how SEC teams’ rankings are inflated w/ FCS opponents. For example, UF is 7-3 in FBS play. Imagine if the ranked SEC teams not named Bama or UGA had to play a 9th conference opponent instead of an FCS school. Or imagine a middling team from the B1G playing an FCS opponent instead of a cross-divisional conference game.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

I wonder if the committee actually looks at numbers like these? I know they say they "look at data," but I wonder if they actually analyze it? The "eye test" is entirely subjective. I prefer objectiveness, especially when it is readily available (such as the case here).

I've maintained since the dawn of the CFP that it is basically like having SID's doing voting for coaches. Almost all the members of the committee are busy people that have other responsibilities, and not actually dedicating the required time to form much objectivism. Committee members have others feed them some type of data, then they make a subjective determination based on group dynamics.

This doesn't answer your question but your post reminds me that it has been reported that they're not allowed to use proprietary metrics which do not disclose their formulae.

 

[irishog77]

This doesn't answer your question but your post reminds me that it has been reported that they're not allowed to use proprietary metrics which do not disclose their formulae.

Does anybody produce numbers and not disclose how they came up with them?

 

[Black Irish]

Does anybody produce numbers and not disclose how they came up with them?

The Bildeburg Group

 

[irishog77]

The Bildeburg Group

So they're excluded from being allowed by use of the committee.

Anybody else?

 

[ACamp1900]

So they're excluded from being allowed by use of the committee.

Anybody else?

Bama’s title count committee...

 

[stlnd01]

Jay Paterno is a journalist?

If by that you mean he writes a column once every two weeks for a local website in State College, Pa.
Sounds like he has a little time on his hands.

"State College native and Penn State graduate Jay Paterno is a father, husband and political volunteer."

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Does anybody produce numbers and not disclose how they came up with them?

Basically every cumulative rating system. FEI, Sagarin, etc.

 

[IrishLax]

Awesome catch by Calcaterra, but that was definitely OPI. Looks like Oklahoma just punched their ticket. Texas lost the game on that last drive at the end of the first half.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

Awesome catch by Calcaterra, but that was definitely OPI. Looks like Oklahoma just punched their ticket. Texas lost the game on that last drive at the end of the first half.

Looks like Notre Dame is probably out of the playoffs now if OSU wins big. Oklahoma handled the #14 ranked team and actually showed they can play some defense. CFP committee will forgot Oklahoma has a historically bad defense because their defense stepped up today. Notre Dame didn’t play this week and loses a point for by playing a 13th game, Notre Dame is out of site and out of mind. If OSU crushes Northwestern OSU you will be in off the past two weeks. Oklahoma will be in getting their 12th win and showing they have a defense. Not to mention UGA could beat Bama which means two SEC teams will make the CFP. Notre Dame not playing will cost them a spot in the CFP, especially since most think their schedule is to weak and no conference championship game. Also factor in most think Oklahoma, OSU, UGA would beat ND; the committee will pass over the Irish. Oklahoma’s defense pushes them into CFP over ND.

Obviously I’m being fasciitis, but sadly many will think this way.


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[Irish YJ]

Looks like Notre Dame is probably out of the playoffs now if OSU wins big. Oklahoma handled the #14 ranked team and actually showed they can play some defense. CFP committee will forgot Oklahoma has a historically bad defense because their defense stepped up today. Notre Dame didn’t play this week and loses a point for by playing a 13th game, Notre Dame is out of site and out of mind. If OSU crushes Northwestern OSU you will be in off the past two weeks. Oklahoma will be in getting their 12th win and showing they have a defense. Not to mention UGA could beat Bama which means two SEC teams will make the CFP. Notre Dame not playing will cost them a spot in the CFP, especially since most think their schedule is to weak and no conference championship game. Also factor in most think Oklahoma, OSU, UGA would beat ND; the committee will pass over the Irish. Oklahoma’s defense pushes them into CFP over ND.

Obviously I’m being fasciitis, but sadly many will think this way.

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Only way to stop that thinking is to win our first round. If we get crushed by Clemson, UGA, or OK, it's our own fault that the thinking continues. All I want for Christmas is a first round win.

 

[NorthDakota]

Looks like Notre Dame is probably out of the playoffs now if OSU wins big. Oklahoma handled the #14 ranked team and actually showed they can play some defense. CFP committee will forgot Oklahoma has a historically bad defense because their defense stepped up today. Notre Dame didn’t play this week and loses a point for by playing a 13th game, Notre Dame is out of site and out of mind. If OSU crushes Northwestern OSU you will be in off the past two weeks. Oklahoma will be in getting their 12th win and showing they have a defense. Not to mention UGA could beat Bama which means two SEC teams will make the CFP. Notre Dame not playing will cost them a spot in the CFP, especially since most think their schedule is to weak and no conference championship game. Also factor in most think Oklahoma, OSU, UGA would beat ND; the committee will pass over the Irish. Oklahoma’s defense pushes them into CFP over ND.

Obviously I’m being fasciitis, but sadly many will think this way.


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Notre Dame is in.

 

[BabyIrish]

Is Georgia going to do it

 

[BobbyMac]

Looks like Notre Dame is probably out of the playoffs

Obviously I'm being fasciitis, but sadly many will think this way.

You are correct, being out of the playoffs would be a real pain in the foot.

Now if you meant Facetious, and your last name is Jackson... I think I dated your sister in high school.

 

[Circa]

You are correct, being out of the playoffs would be a real pain in the foot.

Now if you meant Facetious, and your last name is Jackson... I think I dated your sister in high school.

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[ND88]

Is Georgia going to do it

Do what? Complain about being excluded and demand inclusion for coming the closest to beating Bama? Wouldn’t surprise me.

 

[stlnd01]

Do what? Complain about being excluded and demand inclusion for coming the closest to beating Bama? Wouldn’t surprise me.

The fact that Georgia had the game won and pissed it away will make their argument a lot less compelling. Hard to see the fourth spot not going to Oklahoma at this point.