2018 College Football Playoff

[greyhammer90]

Gary was a washout. Once Moe Hurst left he was pedestrian.

I'd agree he was a good/great starter, which for his potential was a massive bust. I never saw him take over a game, which is something you would expect from that level of prospect playing at the edge position.

 

[irishog77]

Gary was a washout. Once Moe Hurst left he was pedestrian.

I'd agree he was a good/great starter, which for his potential was a massive bust. I never saw him take over a game, which is something you would expect from that level of prospect playing at the edge position.

I agree that Gary has been a good/great starter. Nothing more, nothing less. In a sense, he reminds me of Jabril Peppers (although I think Peppers was a better college player). Both had loads of potential and definitely contributed to their teams, but were kind of tweeners, position-wise. Gary as a DT/DE, and Peppers as a LB/S/CB/Returner. I think not having a true home maybe sort of hurt them and limited their overall impact. As it was, both just had nice careers, instead of being household names that had the potential to be idolized boyhood heroes for michigan fans.

 

[IrishLion]

I wish someone would do the offensive analysis of the last 8 games, blocking for the promotion of Ian Book to starter.

I think our offensive numbers would look much better. I believe we are easily a top 4 team and very well rounded.

Bill Connelly usually checks that when he does his weekly S&P+ stuff, and if his system accounts for only the games Book has started, ND is the #4 offense, and I think would be the #4 team in the country overall, rather than the #6 team where S&P + ranks them.

ND is very much in the “elite” tier of teams with Book at QB, considering it rounds out the offense to match a top-10 defense. Of course, it hurts that the Bama and Clemson are shattering the ceiling on the “elite” group.

 

[IrishLion]

S&P+ predicts a 30-22 Clemson victory.

The system has been very accurate all season, but it still can’t totally account for the increased efficiency that Book brings to the offense, meaning it would likely predict a much tighter game had Book been installed all year.

If ND avoids beating themselves (which they have all year), and Clemson makes a mistake or two (which Lawrence is prone to do against pressure), ND can asbsolutely win. I feel better after looking at the statistical evidence.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">S&P+ BOWL PICKS! ALREADY!<br>* The CFP underdogs could cover!<br>* Early lines are waaaaay over-optimistic for SEC teams.<br>* Finally, <a href="https://twitter.com/BroncoSportsFB?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@BroncoSportsFB</a> (-2.5) gets a shot at 2005 MPC Computers Bowl revenge. <a href="https://t.co/8XzIlnO3dI">https://t.co/8XzIlnO3dI</a></p>— Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) <a href="https://twitter.com/SBN_BillC/status/1069577384570101760?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 3, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[NorthDakota]

This quote immediately jumped out at me:

Had no idea Sunshine was so highly regarded. The best QB recruit ever?

If you watch Clemson, you can see the dude can spin the rock. He's also a lot bigger than he looks. Dude is 6' 5"(Clemson says he's an inch taller so I feel okay taking one off). He can move well, throws a pretty ball, all around solid. He also played in the ACC this year, which was down. Even when the ACC is up, it's not exactly a physical conference.

If ND can get to him, it'd be something he isn't used to. I hope ND can make him uncomfortable, because if he has time to throw, this shithead will make big throws. He is sophomore Jimmy but bigger and more athletic.

 

[Legacy]

From Connelly's : 130-team S&P+ rankings: Bama was college football’s best regular season team

Good predictive ratings are not résumé ratings, and they don’t give you bonus points for wins and losses. They simply compare expected output to actual output and adjust accordingly. That’s how a given team can win but plummet or lose and move up.

The S&P+ rankings have performed pretty well this year, hitting 53 percent against the spread and 52 percent on the over/under point totals for the year.

- Michigan ranked ahead of Notre Dame and Ohio State

F/+ doesn't do as well against the spread - 51.3%
College Football S&P+ and F/+ picks, 2018 Spreadsheet also has weekly tabs.

Note that the S&P/+ and the F/+ each generate their own Spreads, not Vegas's with their ATS performances measured against those. (Click on weekly tabs)

53% or 51% ATS is considered pretty good.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

I agree that Gary has been a good/great starter. Nothing more, nothing less. In a sense, he reminds me of Jabril Peppers (although I think Peppers was a better college player). Both had loads of potential and definitely contributed to their teams, but were kind of tweeners, position-wise. Gary as a DT/DE, and Peppers as a LB/S/CB/Returner. I think not having a true home maybe sort of hurt them and limited their overall impact. As it was, both just had nice careers, instead of being household names that had the potential to be idolized boyhood heroes for michigan fans.

That title has long been cemented by this guy:

 

[Whiskeyjack]

18 Stripes broke down our various unit match-ups against Clemson, and it's sobering reading. Here's the Tigers offense v. the Irish defense, and here's the Irish offense v. the Tigers defense.

 

[NDShark]

18 Stripes broke down our various unit match-ups against Clemson, and it's sobering reading. Here's the Tigers offense v. the Irish defense, and here's the Irish offense v. the Tigers defense.

Agreed. However, we saw what can happen when a team (e.g. Michigan) finally plays top 5-10 opponents (e.g. ND, OSU). In the words of Kevin Garnett...anything is possible. I'm not sure what Clemson looks like on the injury front, but as was mentioned elsewhere, Book + Tranquil + MTA + Jafar + I'm sure others all benefit greatly from the time off and should help make this one competitive.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

18 Stripes broke down our various unit match-ups against Clemson, and it's sobering reading. Here's the Tigers offense v. the Irish defense, and here's the Irish offense v. the Tigers defense.

The best way to neutralize a great DL is a quick passing game and nobody is better at that than ND. ND should expect to lose that matchup and just plan around it. Don’t run the ball 30 times for 70 yards.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Agreed. However, we saw what can happen when a team (e.g. Michigan) finally plays top 5-10 opponents (e.g. ND, OSU). In the words of Kevin Garnett...anything is possible. I'm not sure what Clemson looks like on the injury front, but as was mentioned elsewhere, Book + Tranquil + MTA + Jafar + I'm sure others all benefit greatly from the time off and should help make this one competitive.

I mostly agree. It's definitely an advantage for us that the ACC has been so weak, meaning we'll be the first real test they'll have faced all year. And I'm pretty optimistic about all of our match-ups except for our OL v their DL--the weakest unit on our team v. the best unit in the country (perhaps the best DL of the last few years also). That's such a massive obstacle to overcome.

Maintaining some balance on attack, keeping the offense on schedule, and picking up yards on the ground are all going to be crucial if we're going to beat the Tigers... but what we've seen thus far from Quinn's unit is not going to accomplish that. Who knows? Maybe he's got a Christmas miracle up his sleeve, and they'll finally morph into an Irish vOLtron. Seems unlikely, but I'm trying to keep the faith.

 

[Irish8248]

Would love to see our 1st play to be a RB screen to Dex.. those DL are going to pin their ears back and get after it immediately to set a tone.

 

[IrishLion]

I mostly agree. It's definitely an advantage for us that the ACC has been so weak, meaning we'll be the first real test they'll have faced all year. And I'm pretty optimistic about all of our match-ups except for our OL v their DL--the weakest unit on our team v. the best unit in the country (perhaps the best DL of the last few years also). That's such a massive obstacle to overcome.

Maintaining some balance on attack, keeping the offense on schedule, and picking up yards on the ground are all going to be crucial if we're going to beat the Tigers... but what we've seen thus far from Quinn's unit is not going to accomplish that. Who knows? Maybe he's got a Christmas miracle up his sleeve, and they'll finally morph into an Irish vOLtron. Seems unlikely, but I'm trying to keep the faith.

Every single play should be an RPO, except never actually use the "R." Basically, just use the run fake in the RPO as play action, and let Book read a slant or a screen. Eliminate Clemson's DL completely and always pass.

Mix in some 3-step/back-shoulder throws to Boykin, with the occasional crosser to Claypool. Wait for Clemson's DL to get frustrated, then run a draw to Book when they're all flooding upfield in the pass rush....




And then just try to figure something else out for the remaining three quarters of the game.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Every single play should be an RPO, except never actually use the "R." Basically, just use the run fake in the RPO as play action, and let Book read a slant or a screen. Eliminate Clemson's DL completely and always pass.

Mix in some 3-step/back-shoulder throws to Boykin, with the occasional crosser to Claypool. Wait for Clemson's DL to get frustrated, then run a draw to Book when they're all flooding upfield in the pass rush....

Who needs a base offense? We'll run 100% constraint plays and hope they never wise up.

 

[ACamp1900]

FB traps all game....

 

[Circa]

Every single play should be an RPO, except never actually use the "R." Basically, just use the run fake in the RPO as play action, and let Book read a slant or a screen. Eliminate Clemson's DL completely and always pass.

Mix in some 3-step/back-shoulder throws to Boykin, with the occasional crosser to Claypool. Wait for Clemson's DL to get frustrated, then run a draw to Book when they're all flooding upfield in the pass rush....




And then just try to figure something else out for the remaining three quarters of the game.

<iframe src="https://giphy.com/embed/7AF8ZtdMGlBvO" width="480" height="338" frameBorder="0" class="giphy-embed" allowFullScreen></iframe><p><a href="https://giphy.com/gifs/television-politics-7AF8ZtdMGlBvO">via GIPHY</a></p>

 

[Legacy]

18 Stripes broke down our various unit match-ups against Clemson, and it's sobering reading. Here's the Tigers offense v. the Irish defense, and here's the Irish offense v. the Tigers defense.

We have no chance.... statistically.
We don't compare ... in NFL prospects.
We've already lost ... according to Vegas and most bettors.
We were lucky ... to be undefeated.
We've played nobody ... scheduling weak teams.
We are limited and will never recover our historical competitiveness ... witness the 2012 championship.
We'll have no rushing attack ... their DL will crush our OL.
We should join a conference ... for an easier path to the Playoffs.

Pencil Clemson in for the NC game ... if we show up to get embarrassed.

So we are told.

 

[ickythump1225]

You forgot that an AAC team beat Pitt by 31 so we're definitely going to lose this game.

 

[Bluto]

You forgot that an AAC team beat Pitt by 31 so we're definitely going to lose this game.

Do you think having Ed Oliver would have allowed Houston to hold Army under 70? Kidding. Merry Christmas!