I just want to clear something up. Vegas lines. I'm by no means an expert in anything sports betting or vegas, I mean I think I've bet on a few horses at a racetrack or two. Vegas I'm sure looks into all the advanced analytics for these football games. But at the end of the day their only goal is to get the public to wager 50/50 on either side of the line so they make money regardless of the outcome, right? This is why I put little stock into what vegas says about a game, even though this has become en vogue over the last decade as people throw their money away at alarmingly higher and higher rates. So at the end of the day a vegas line is no more than the court of public opinion, which is heavily, heavily influenced by the media. You know, the media who literally cringes when they bring up ND.
You are mostly correct. True, a line of, say, Clemson -12 over ND doesn't mean Vegas necessarily believes Clemson is 12 points better than ND...but rather at -12 they can maximize profit.
That’s actually not true but it’s a common misconception. Vegas tries to win. There are instances where the money ends up even certainly but that isn’t the goal. They would rather 51% loses than 50%. There are really good articles out there on it, particularly on the role of sharps.
This is somewhat correct too. A sportsbook's goal is obviously to make money, but also to limit exposure. A 50-50 split ensures profit (from juice), and eliminates exposure. Yes though, Vegas tries to win, but they still can't accurately predict when they will win. That inability thus raises exposure, which is bad. The NO-Dallas game made a fortune for Vegas, but had the ability to crush them (all the money was on NO). Briefly, the human element is what enables Vegas to win. And analytics still can't accurately predict the human element. So, statistically, the book knows they will get "wins," but not necessarily when and where.
An yes, you are correct that virtually no contest ever ends up with the money 50-50.
Gotcha. I guess what I'm saying is odds making is as much a science of sociology as it is a science of actual team matchups (at least to my very basic and unknowledgable understanding of it).
I understand what you are saying, but no- it is 100% science (well, math) based. Mainly for the reasons described above. There is zero credence given to something a talking head may say.
they try to set it very close, but will skew it to make losers bet.
one could say they set the ND/Clemson at -11.5 to entice folks to bet on ND as they think Clemson will win by more. One of the shows even kind of implied that (Bear). They don't skew too much, and have formulas that tell them when to adjust. They even know (or think they know) which fans will bet first, which will wait, etc.. They've got it down to a science.
But overall, Vegas is far more accurate than the talking heads.
The initial part of what you described is almost impossible to predict though. Yes, there are prompts for enticement, but that generally boils down to a "hook" (.5 points). And then the hook can disappear once money comes in to move the line.
All in all, these formulas are actually fairly simple. But they are data heavy and thus tough for many people/companies to use. There are actually really only a handful of handicapping companies used to set lines. Line movements stem from automatic qualifiers established in the analytic software. Each book has the ability to change how much they actually move the line once those qualifiers hit (why we sometimes see 1 establishment move it .5 point and another may move it 1 full point and so on). And then individual position within that certain contest (again 1 establishment can be heavy on one side, while another establishment can be heavy on the other, thus they change their line to limit exposure).
All in all, there is probably much less manipulation than people believe, for the simple fact of exposure. Probably, the best formula for any establishment to win is to let the lines and movement happen naturally. The human element will eventually allow for the specific establishment to win.
