2015 NFL Draft

[greyhammer90]

Speaking of being intellectually dishonest. Um, from where are you getting that number?

I'd say that given all the evidence I've seen combined, a 50/50 chance is actually quite victim-friendly. Obviously the number itself is made up by me, but I chose it to illustrate that victim's best possible argument amounts to a good healthy amount of skepticism. Really any number would've done, all the way up to 90%. Sorry if I gave you any impression that it was based on probabilities I cooked up in the lab. I'll remove it if you want.

 

[woolybug25]

The final PFT mock draft | ProFootballTalk

An interesting mock draft. I have no idea why Perriman is going so high in so many mock drafts. He is not a good route runner and he drops way too many passes.

It's a weird draft year for the Bears. Literally every mock has them picking someone different. I honestly have no clue who they will target.

 

[RDU Irish]

I really hope that my Vikings trade down and get a few more picks.

Though it looks like the Vikings won't trade Peterson, part of me wants him to be traded as long as a good pick can had for him (2nd round pick). It is never a good thing to have a player in the locker room who doesn't want to be there, especially one of your star players as it creates a huge distraction.

How marketable is he? I would take him in a heartbeat but is he damaged goods in the eyes of half the teams? How much time is left in his contract? The RB position has also lost a ton of value in recent years.

Vikes may also be expressing desire to retain him to get full value in a deal. I would think both parties would benefit from, say an early 2nd round pick for AP. Given the situation, would AP do a sign and trade deal - extend his contract to facilitate more value in a trade? Possibilities are endless but I would put the odds of him moving on draft day at slightly better than a coin flip.

 

[RDU Irish]

Idk, a guy like Petty might have a better chance than Winston or Mariotta of playing right away, simply because it's likely that he falls into a much better situation a bit later in the draft.

It makes me think of Andy Dalton and the Bengals. Dalton started as a rookie, and has been a serviceable QB, because he was a second-round pick for a team that had a solid foundation and system already in place. The same could happen with Petty, but idk if there are any QB-needy teams drafting in the late first round, or any non-trainwrecks drafting in the early second round.

Look good in a Bears uniform in the early second round.

 

[dublinirish]

I saw Perriman play vs PSU this year. Kid is a big unit kinda like Anquan Boldin. Not sure if he worth a high first rounder though. Had 3 catches mostly on deep routes

 

[pkt77242]

I'd say that given all the evidence I've seen combined, a 50/50 chance is actually quite victim-friendly. Obviously the number itself is made up by me, but I chose it to illustrate that victim's best possible argument amounts to a good healthy amount of skepticism. Really any number would've done, all the way up to 90%. Sorry if I gave you any impression that it was based on probabilities I cooked up in the lab. I'll remove it if you want.

You don't have to remove it. From what I have seen, I would personally put the number higher as I think he more likely then not did it, but it is by no means a open and shut case. The sad thing is that because of the police botching the case we will never know the truth which is a disservice to both Winston and the accuser.

 

[pkt77242]

I saw Perriman play vs PSU this year. Kid is a big unit kinda like Anquan Boldin. Not sure if he worth a high first rounder though. Had 3 catches mostly on deep routes

I have seen that a few places have referenced that upon watching his film he had a drop rate of about 14%. That is damn high for a first round WR.

NFL Draft Truth or Hype: WR Breshad Perriman | Access Vikings | Blog covering the Minnesota Vikings | Star Tribune | StarTribune.com

 

[irishfan]

LOL @ you guys.

What QB in the league has been successful with a history like his? With a personality like his? Zero... that's how many. But please, keep believing in him.

I'll try to remember your fanboy posts when he crash and burns.

Don't you guys think that "made some mistakes" might be a bit of an understatement?

Winston turned 21 in January. I'm not going to hold it against him for being an idiot in college, especially when he appeared to be a good leader on the field and a guy who his teammates gravitated towards. He's not Manziel where there are pictures of him out every weekend partying and you have to worry if he will continue this pattern. Literally everything Winston did was typical college kid stuff. He took free food (every team down South is getting free shit), he screamed something stupid in the cafeteria (no cafeterias in the pros), he shot BB guns, and he filled out water cups with soda at a Burger King. He sounds like a 18-20 year old. He's not a 5th year senior ready to play. I wouldn't play him his rookie yer personally, but the kid has all the tools to be a stud. Winston is cocky and says he's the best player in the draft and has been wanting to go to Tampa since he declared. The biggest criticism of Mariota is that he's quiet. He's said he doesn't care where he gets drafted. I'll take the cocky QB over the quiet QB every day.

And don't even get me started on the rape allegations. She had 2 different types of semen on her underwear from that night, and neither one matched her boyfriend at the time which is why her criminal case fell apart in the first place. She asked for $7,000,000 before going to the press and said Winston would never hear from her again if he paid. He got extorted.

Peyton way back in the day had some sort of weird story with a female trainer. But it was before social media. I would guess there are a lot of guys in the league who are happy social media wasn't around or wasn't as popular now as when they were in college.

Peyton Manning is Lucky Social Media Wasn’t Around in 1996 When He Allegedly Sat on a Female Trainer’s Face | The Big Lead

 

[NDPhilly]

The final PFT mock draft | ProFootballTalk

An interesting mock draft. I have no idea why Perriman is going so high in so many mock drafts. He is not a good route runner and he drops way too many passes.

Mariota or bust baby

 

[pkt77242]

How marketable is he? I would take him in a heartbeat but is he damaged goods in the eyes of half the teams? How much time is left in his contract? The RB position has also lost a ton of value in recent years.

Vikes may also be expressing desire to retain him to get full value in a deal. I would think both parties would benefit from, say an early 2nd round pick for AP. Given the situation, would AP do a sign and trade deal - extend his contract to facilitate more value in a trade? Possibilities are endless but I would put the odds of him moving on draft day at slightly better than a coin flip.

He is signed through the 2017 season (so 15,16 and 17) but at a huge cap charge of
15.4M, 15M, and 17M, but there is no guaranteed money in the last 2 years so no charge to cut. I think he would take a pay cut if he was traded to a team like the Cardinals or Dallas.
Adrian Peterson Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money | Over The Cap
I agree with your general assessment that there is about a 50/50 chance that they trade him.

 

[RDU Irish]

It's a weird draft year for the Bears. Literally every mock has them picking someone different. I honestly have no clue who they will target.

Best available approach isn't all that bad here. Someone quite attractive surely drops to them and they have sooooo many needs they can find room. Best case though, someone wants to trade up half a dozen spots in return for their first and second round picks.

 

[RDU Irish]

He is signed through the 2017 season (so 15,16 and 17) but at a huge cap charge of
15.4M, 15M, and 17M, but there is no guaranteed money in the last 2 years so no charge to cut. I think he would take a pay cut if he was traded to a team like the Cardinals or Dallas.
Adrian Peterson Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money | Over The Cap
I agree with your general assessment that there is about a 50/50 chance that they trade him.

Think a late second round pick is enough to get him? I would be all over that if I were either of those teams. If the salary were cut in half I would say their first round picks would be in play. Three years of AP for a team already playoff caliber is kind of scary. On that note, I hope Dallas doesn't deal for him then.

 

[irishfan]

It's such a pain that the Patriots have to pick late every year...

No idea what I want them to get. I wouldn't mind a trade up to ~20 if someone like Gurley or Waynes magically falls. Otherwise I guess DT or Guard or someone like Byron Jones at CB. There's such value at #32 with the 5th year option for a rookie....I'd be pretty happy if they could get a good trade down to a desperate team.

 

[pkt77242]

2015 NFL Mock Draft: Projecting Round 1 - NFL - SI.com

 

[ACamp1900]

I'd be happy with any of those run downs above for the Browns, but I would def expect Petty to be taken by Cleveland in round two....

 

[ACamp1900]

I like Mariota and hope the kid does well, but I don't think there is enough difference in pro ability to separate Petty and Mariota by a full round and two other draft picks... Just me

 

[pkt77242]

It's such a pain that the Patriots have to pick late every year...

No idea what I want them to get. I wouldn't mind a trade up to ~20 if someone like Gurley or Waynes magically falls. Otherwise I guess DT or Guard or someone like Byron Jones at CB. There's such value at #32 with the 5th year option for a rookie....I'd be pretty happy if they could get a good trade down to a desperate team.

Speaking of the Patriots

NFL draft: Analyzing success of recent round 1 trades - NFL - SI.com

This is an interesting article on teams that have benefited the most and least from making first round trades.

 

[pkt77242]

Think a late second round pick is enough to get him? I would be all over that if I were either of those teams. If the salary were cut in half I would say their first round picks would be in play. Three years of AP for a team already playoff caliber is kind of scary. On that note, I hope Dallas doesn't deal for him then.

The Vikings would say no, I might be tempted to say yes. I think the ideal situation for the Vikings is a 2nd Round pick this year with an additional conditional pick for next year depending on a few things. For example it starts as a 4th round pick and if Peterson hits 1200 yards and the team makes the playoffs it becomes a 3rd round pick. If the team makes it to the Super Bowl it becomes a 2nd round pick (maybe even escalating to a 1st round pick if the team wins the Super Bowl).

 

[NDWorld247]

It's such a pain that the Patriots have to pick late every year...

No idea what I want them to get. I wouldn't mind a trade up to ~20 if someone like Gurley or Waynes magically falls. Otherwise I guess DT or Guard or someone like Byron Jones at CB. There's such value at #32 with the 5th year option for a rookie....I'd be pretty happy if they could get a good trade down to a desperate team.

The end of the 1st round, especially #32, is the sweet spot for teams trying to get back into the 1st round. The 5th yr option as you mentioned is a huge reason for it, as well as teams trying to secure the top 2nd tier QB. I fully expect the Pats to trade out of this pick. Everything is on the table but I'd be surprised with a move up. We have 15 roster spots open and 9 draft picks so it does makes sense to package some and move up a bit, I just don't expect it to happen.

I stopped trying to predict what the Pats would do after they took Logan Mankins in the 1st round. Did not see that coming at the time and was pissed. In fact, I usually walk away from the draft being really upset with what the Patriots do (e.g. passing on Dez Bryant twice). WTF do I know though. In Bill I Trust.

 

[Huntr]

Nvm.

 

[Wild Bill]

Best available approach isn't all that bad here. Someone quite attractive surely drops to them and they have sooooo many needs they can find room. Best case though, someone wants to trade up half a dozen spots in return for their first and second round picks.

I agree, take the trade. I just don't know if they'll have many trade partners if Winston, Mariotta, Cooper, Williams and Fowler are off the board.

It seems like they'll stay at #7 and take best available receiver, safety or defensive linemen. I like Collins as a player but he's a reach at #7. I think Beasley and Dupree are also reaches at that pick. Given the depth at receiver, I think it would be a mistake to take any of them, except maybe Cooper, when you could likely land a really talented kid in the second round.

I'm hoping for a couple surprises in the first six picks and either Fowler or Williams falling into their laps.

 

[woolybug25]

I agree, take the trade. I just don't know if they'll have many trade partners if Winston, Mariotta, Cooper, Williams and Fowler are off the board.

It seems like they'll stay at #7 and take best available receiver, safety or defensive linemen. I like Collins as a player but he's a reach at #7. I think Beasley and Dupree are also reaches at that pick. Given the depth at receiver, I think it would be a mistake to take any of them, except maybe Cooper, when you could likely land a really talented kid in the second round.

I'm hoping for a couple surprises in the first six picks and either Fowler or Williams falling into their laps.

That's the scenario I would like to see. If neither happens, I want them to trade down. Unfortunately, it seems like a catch 22. If neither of those players are available, will anyone want to trade up?

 

[Wild Bill]

That's the scenario I would like to see. If neither happens, I want them to trade down. Unfortunately, it seems like a catch 22. If neither of those players are available, will anyone want to trade up?

Exactly. I think they're going to reach for someone. Maybe another GM falls in love with Beasley's athleticism or White's speed and is eager to make the trade. I think both of them are reaches at 7.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

That's the scenario I would like to see. If neither happens, I want them to trade down. Unfortunately, it seems like a catch 22. If neither of those players are available, will anyone want to trade up?

There seems to be some competition shaping up for Kevin White and Gurley. It wouldn't shock me if the Bears had some nice options to trade down regardless.

 

[pkt77242]

Marcus Mariota Is Projected To Be Better Than Jameis Winston | FiveThirtyEight

 

[RDU Irish]

Is Cooper a lock for Oakland? I could see him fall with as much WR talent as there is in this draft.

Cooper, Fowler, Williams, Scherff, White - These are all names I think would serve the Bears well with a #7 pick. I think you can trade to mid teens and pick up White or Scherff though.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Here's an excellent article from Grantland's Chris Brown comparing the top four QBs in this draft class.

Bill Parcells used to say that pro football “is not for the well adjusted.” It takes an exceptionally driven person to succeed as an NFL quarterback, and even for those sorts, there are many pitfalls along the way to glory. Leveling a final judgment on the characters of a few 21-year-olds is fraught with risk, though I’ve spoken to enough coaches and players about Winston and Mariota to get a sense of what both of them would be like as pros. And while Winston’s score just edges Mariota’s, I’d prefer to pick the passer whom I trust most to spend countless hours mastering his craft and to avoid doing anything on or off the field to jeopardize his future. I’d pick the quarterback with the most grit. I’d pick Marcus Mariota.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

... and here's another great article from the author on the top WRs.

 

[NDdomer2]

espn just put a tweet out that said of the 6 qbs taken at #2 overall, none have won the super bowl (rg3, donovan mcnabb, ryan leaf, rick mirer, bert jones, archie manning). Qbs taken #1 have won 14.

 

[zelezo vlk]

The Collins O Lineman from LSU is trying to pull his name from the draft and make himself available for the supplemental draft. Can't embed the tweet from mobile, but Jay Glazer is reporting it. Dude is plummeting down draft boards.