Yeah, I didn't really list Utah as a likely candidate to jump us, but when you consider tOSU had a nasty loss to VT last year, and then had an impressive win against Wisconsin in the championship game, that prompted the committee to move them into the playoff picture. Utah has a winnable schedule remaining in the regular season, but I don't really see them bouncing ahead of us.
Florida is a different matter. They may be without their QB now, but if they continue to win out and somehow win the SEC, they will without a doubt jump us. Those are big if's, but if they find a way to win they're certainly ahead of us cause SEC. There's something about new coaches coming into the SEC and succeeding early, then struggling as opposition adjusts: first Sumlin, then Malzahn, now McElwain.
As far as the Big 12, I think TCU has the best shot to still run the table, even though they haven't always looked great (Not all good teams do). I sincerely hope they drop 1 or more though, same for Baylor. As far as Baylor, they're breaking in a new QB with his first four games going like this: K State, Oklahoma, OK State, and TCU. That's a pretty rough stretch there, and I think they'll drop one at least. Knocking the Big 12 out of the playoff picture would make it easy for the committee to bring the 11-1 Irish in over a messy 2015 PAC-12 and a 1 loss 2015 Big 12 champ.
tOSU may not have looked great either all season, but they're effectively the 2015 version of the 2014 Florida State team. They haven't been as hungry, they sleep walk through the first few quarters of games, and then they get tough and show their talent as they finish out games. It probably helps that they've gone back to JT Barrett who seems to be more consistent. tOSU is still probably the most likely team to get away unscathed from the B1G, even as Michigan and Michigan State have played well this year. If I'm tOSU I'm definitely more worried about Michigan than MSU this year, but both will be challenging games.
LSU winning out is probably better for us, but they still have Ole Miss and Alabama to get through, although they should handle Ole Miss. If Alabama stuffs the run, LSU is done. We know Fournette is a beast, he'll get yards, but 'Bama still has a tough defense. Should be a good game. In the end, I expect 'Bama to handle the rest of the season, including a championship against Georgia or Florida where the Tide should come out on top again.
We absolutely do not want Clemson to lose, the best scenario is where they win out or they find a way to keep the ACC completely out of the championship. We need that 2 point loss in Death Valley to look as good as possible, and an undefeated Clemson team would do that. If we win out, the likely PAC-12 champ is effectively eliminated from the playoff conversation. SEC champ will likely be in no matter what. Clemson will certainly be in if they run the table, and I think they can unless they struggle with FSU. That leaves 2 spots between us, the B1G champ, and the Big 12. Hopefully everyone in the Big 12 winds up with at least 1 loss, because the schedules suck. I think the whoever wins the B1G will wind up in the playoff though, 1 loss or not (Even though their schedules aren't much better).
