'11 GA S Avery Sebastian (Notre Dame Transferee)

[ndcoltsfan2010]

He is definitely more of a strong safety. Excellent run stuffer, great tackler and hard hitter. I would love him on the field, it's FS I'm worried about. As a SS, no problem here. This young man is a hard hitting, great tackler in open field and delivers devastating hits to anyone with the ball. I'm just concerned with his coverage skills.

 

[ulukinatme]

I firmly believe that no one player, sans QB, can cost you a game. Hell, we could sit in nickel all game and problem solved. It's idiotic of that podcast to think one player at safety could cost us a game.

Someone is forgetting 2011 Gary Gray @ Michigan lol

Close, but Tommy Rees' phantom fumble ruined a situation where we put them away for good.

GTFO. We were up 24 to 7 going into the 4th quarter on the road. The defense gave up 28 damn points in the 4th, THAT'S why we lost that game. Diaco went soft, and Denard tore us apart. When Michigan went ahead with 1 minute to go in the game, Tommy drove down the field and put us up again. We finished with 31 points, on the road in the Big House. That should have been enough to win the game offensively, that loss is not on Tommy. Twenty. Eight. Points.

 

[edgesofsanity]

Having watched that highlight video...

Perhaps he's getting the start because of his run support ability? Texas is supposed to be running this vertical passing attack, but their strength is actually supposed to be their monster running backs. Perhaps the staff wants essentially two SS's out there to counter Texas' power runners? And we'll see Studstill on 3rd down?

I like that thought a lot.

But the real strength will be the power running back duo of D’Onta Foreman and Chris Warren III. Foreman forced 24 missed tackles on just 94 attempts, and averaged 7.2 yards per rush, leading to a +8.7 rushing grade. Warren gained 59 percent of his 470 yards after contact (3.9 yards after contact per attempt, one of the best marks in the country). If those two can get it going again, it’ll make it easier for a Texas passing game that doesn’t figure to be on the same level as the run game.

Link

So stop the run first with the experienced senior, then set up the freshman with pure cover opportunities.

 

[Crazy Balki]

GTFO. We were up 24 to 7 going into the 4th quarter on the road. The defense gave up 28 damn points in the 4th, THAT'S why we lost that game. Diaco went soft, and Denard tore us apart. When Michigan went ahead with 1 minute to go in the game, Tommy drove down the field and put us up again. We finished with 31 points, on the road in the Big House. That should have been enough to win the game offensively, that loss is not on Tommy. Twenty. Eight. Points.

I never said Tommy was solely responsible for the loss, but that ridiculous and head-scratching fumble left points on the board that were a deciding factor. Not to mention that fumble caused a massive momentum shift. He bares some of the blame. The point was that one person was not fully responsible for the loss.

 

[ResLife Hero]

Having watched that highlight video...

Perhaps he's getting the start because of his run support ability? Texas is supposed to be running this vertical passing attack, but their strength is actually supposed to be their monster running backs. Perhaps the staff wants essentially two SS's out there to counter Texas' power runners? And we'll see Studstill on 3rd down?

A buddy of mine breaks down fill for PFF and looked at Avery when he transferred in. This is exactly how Cal used him against Stanford to counter their power game so it's a role he's familiar with. He rotated off whenever an obvious passing down came up but did a good job cleaning things up in the run game on 1st and 2nd.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

A buddy of mine breaks down fill for PFF and looked at Avery when he transferred in. This is exactly how Cal used him against Stanford to counter their power game so it's a role he's familiar with. He rotated off whenever an obvious passing down came up but did a good job cleaning things up in the run game on 1st and 2nd.

This does my heart good, and I believe it's putting both players in positions to succeed. (from my limited knowledge)

 

[Shamrock Theories]

I never said Tommy was solely responsible for the loss, but that ridiculous and head-scratching fumble left points on the board that were a deciding factor. Not to mention that fumble caused a massive momentum shift. He bares some of the blame. The point was that one person was not fully responsible for the loss.

I'm just going to assume your memory is faulty. Check the following times on this video:
1:40
4:35
6:35
10:10 (you can see Gray at 10:35 bite on a curl route with 80 yards and 23 seconds to go. It's obviously quarters coverage and he completely blows it.)
10:55

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/RGrfI60HxEs" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[phgreek]

Someone is forgetting 2011 Gary Gray @ Michigan lol

...well I HAD forgotten...just put 2 shots of baileys in my coffee...downed a gallon of tagamet....JFC! I can live without that imagery.

 

[phgreek]

We keep talking about fairness in this thread. I think it's fair to say that he can lay the wood. Here's to hoping he has a few nasty hits like these on Saturday.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/UrIAnmtPnTo" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

...whatever the "experts" say...everyone this kid hit was hurt...I'd let him bring the wood while texas tries to establish a run game early. Very few of these guys left in the world...use 'em while ya got 'em.

 

[woolybug25]

I'm just going to assume your memory is faulty. Check the following times on this video:
1:40
4:35
6:35
10:10 (you can see Gray at 10:35 bite on a curl route with 80 yards and 23 seconds to go. It's obviously quarters coverage and he completely blows it.)
10:55

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/RGrfI60HxEs" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

This is bullshit. If you watch the tape, there were plenty of other players that got burnt, missed assignments, etc. This was a high scoring game where we lost a tight one. Gray wasn't the only guy picked on and we certainly couldn't get pressure on Denard either. Just because you can pick a few plays out of a shootout, doesn't mean that the loss fell directly on Gray. There were plenty of mistakes in a game where one less could have changed the game.

 

[NDdomer2]

the big concern about having a lot of specialty guys (run stoppers on early downs, pure rushers and cover guys on passing downs), is people have always adjusted by going up tempo and not allowing BVG to get his specialty guys in.

So while we have shown to be very dangerous when we do get to rotate our packages, those rotation opportunities will be vastly diminished by the speed texas is supposedly going to play with. That is my concern. Do we have 11 guys on D that you could live with being on the field no matter what down and distance.

 

[Shamrock Theories]

This is bullshit. If you watch the tape, there were plenty of other players that got burnt, missed assignments, etc. This was a high scoring game where we lost a tight one. Gray wasn't the only guy picked on and we certainly couldn't get pressure on Denard either. Just because you can pick a few plays out of a shootout, doesn't mean that the loss fell directly on Gray. There were plenty of mistakes in a game where one less could have changed the game.

It was a "shootout" in which Michigan scored 7 points in the first 3 quarters...Gray absolutely was the only guy they picked on. They tried the arm punt once against Blanton and he promptly picked it.

Dude Gray gave up 220 yards and 3 TD's on those 5 plays alone...lol

The funny thing is that he actually had a pick early in the game when Denard floated a screen pass about 15 yards in the air. Unfortunately that was the last floater he would make a play on

 

[Irish Insanity]

Please let these next few days go by fast. We've resorted to revisiting and hashing out old losses to UofM. This has to be the bottom because I can't think of anything lower.

 

[Domina Nostra]

the big concern about having a lot of specialty guys (run stoppers on early downs, pure rushers and cover guys on passing downs), is people have always adjusted by going up tempo and not allowing BVG to get his specialty guys in.

So while we have shown to be very dangerous when we do get to rotate our packages, those rotation opportunities will be vastly diminished by the speed texas is supposedly going to play with. That is my concern. Do we have 11 guys on D that you could live with being on the field no matter what down and distance.

Exactly this. But I imagine that if it's just a matter of subbing one safety for another, that's probably doable.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

Please let these next few days go by fast. We've resorted to revisiting and hashing out old losses to UofM. This has to be the bottom because I can't think of anything lower.

Wait until after the game Sunday night. Maybe we've deluded ourselves into believing in a team prematurely. Everyone is picking against ND. Not saying majority opinion is always correct but I'm starting to temper my enthusiasm.

 

[Irish Insanity]

Wait until after the game Sunday night. Maybe we've deluded ourselves into believing in a team prematurely. Everyone is picking against ND. Not saying majority opinion is always correct but I'm starting to temper my enthusiasm.

I look at it this way, at this point you're basing your expectations on 1 of 3 things. Hope, fear, or reality. You either expect great things from this team hoping our QB situation doesn't hurt the team, hoping our saftey play is at least decent, hoping our young WR group can continue the success of last year's, hoping our TE's aren't invisible in the offense, and hoping we get pressure on the QB. Or you have low expectations fearing any, or all, of those 5 things hurt our season. Or you live in reality and know this is a wait and see process. There's to many factors with little, or no, sample size to make a determination until you see the product on the field.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

I look at it this way, at this point you're basing your expectations on 1 of 3 things. Hope, fear, or reality. You either expect great things from this team hoping our QB situation doesn't hurt the team, hoping our saftey play is at least decent, hoping our young WR group can continue the success of last year's, hoping our TE's aren't invisible in the offense, and hoping we get pressure on the QB. Or you have low expectations fearing any, or all, of those 5 things hurt our season. Or you live in reality and know this is a wait and see process. There's to many factors with little, or no, sample size to make a determination until you see the product on the field.

Couldn't agree more. I do think 9-3 should be our floor but stranger things have happened. I thought 2011 was going to be a really good year and we shit the bed.

 

[IrishLax]

I'm not sure we have a "floor" because no one knows how bad this defense might be.

 

[ACamp1900]

I'm not sure we have a "floor" because no one knows how bad this defense might be.

This.

I've been sayin,.. I don't exactly expect disaster, as much as I have no idea what to expect at all... They could be good, and it wouldn't shock me... they could be 2007 bad, and it wouldn't shock me.

 

[ND Fan Vancouver]

I'm really surprised at how negative this thread is?? I have concerns too but we have A LOT of good players. I bet a lot of guys will make big advancements this year (Tillery, Tranquill, Bars, Sanders, Hunter). Let's just wait and see. We'll know what we have on Sunday.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

I'm not sure we have a "floor" because no one knows how bad this defense might be.

Understood. I think our OL and QBs coupled with running back depth should provide us the ability to churn out yards, put points on the board and eat up clock.

Even if our defense has to go into a vanilla shell with cover 2 safeties, I still think we can win 9 games.

What I'm most concerned about is the inability of our D coordinator to call a vanilla defense when it's warranted.

Thusly, I think the floor should be set at 9. We could lose three games and it'd be an alright season. Anymore and I think we underperformed since we have a top 5 or top 10 team according to recruited talent. We also have 2 playmakers at the most important position on the field and we believe they'll be protected.

I'd be interested in hearing why you think that's incorrect? Do you think we'll be in the bottom quartile of defenses? Do you think we'll be unable to stop the run or pass? (I'm hopeful that our run defense will be a strong point for us).

I'm legitimately interested in someone poking holes in this argument.

 

[NDdomer2]

Dline should be stout against run. But can they maintain the pocket? Rush the qb without allowing jailbreaks?

Linebackers are athletic, quite a bit of inexperience, but excited to watch this group.

CB as long as we stay healthy we'll get good enough play here. Least of my worries currently

S - should get solid play vs run teams, will find out how they cover. Pray for health here.

Overall D should be about as deep as ever (excluding S). Just alot of minimal experience in key spots, leading to the big unknowns.

I think this group is athletic and can hit. I'm excited to watch them.

If they are as good as last years D we are going to have a shot at playoff spot. If they are better, watch out.

 

[ND Fan Vancouver]

Dline should be stout against run. But can they maintain the pocket? Rush the qb without allowing jailbreaks?

Linebackers are athletic, quite a bit of inexperience, but excited to watch this group.

CB as long as we stay healthy we'll get good enough play here. Least of my worries currently

S - should get solid play vs run teams, will find out how they cover. Pray for health here.

Overall D should be about as deep as ever (excluding S). Just alot of minimal experience in key spots, leading to the big unknowns.

I think this group is athletic and can hit. I'm excited to watch them.

If they are as good as last years D we are going to have a shot at playoff spot. If they are better, watch out.

Great post. Honest. I'd like to hear your thoughts on O.

 

[DONTH8]

Dline should be stout against run. But can they maintain the pocket? Rush the qb without allowing jailbreaks?

Linebackers are athletic, quite a bit of inexperience, but excited to watch this group.

CB as long as we stay healthy we'll get good enough play here. Least of my worries currently

S - should get solid play vs run teams, will find out how they cover. Pray for health here.

Overall D should be about as deep as ever (excluding S). Just alot of minimal experience in key spots, leading to the big unknowns.

I think this group is athletic and can hit. I'm excited to watch them.

If they are as good as last years D we are going to have a shot at playoff spot. If they are better, watch out.

One of my favorite interviews was Nyles Morgan when asked by a reporter what he thinks of this defense vs last years, and he responded “we’re just nastier.” I’ll take that everyday of the week. Flying around being athletes and trusting each other could help this team out a lot.

 

[Irish Insanity]

I'm really surprised at how negative this thread is?? I have concerns too but we have A LOT of good players. I bet a lot of guys will make big advancements this year (Tillery, Tranquill, Bars, Sanders, Hunter). Let's just wait and see. We'll know what we have on Sunday.

USC has a lot of good players. That hasn't always worked out in recent years.....I understand what you're saying tho. I put myself in the wait and see category. There are just to many unproven variables to know exactly what we can be.

 

[stlnd01]

Obvs we don't really know that much about our team or - just as importantly - the teams we're playing.
But, on paper anyway, only three or four teams on our schedule have comparable talent, and Kelly's done a pretty good job in recent years of not losing to inferior opponent, the injury-ravaged end of 2014 aside.
That, to me, is why 9-3 seems like a reasonable floor (though, as Insanity said, it's also why USC is often ranked in the top 10 preseason).
But we've got to stay healthy, develop some new leaders on D and keep it simple out there to hide our weak spots (outside backer, safety). None of those things are guaranteed.
OTOH, I'm not worried about the offense at all. Two top-notch QBs. Best stable of RBs I can remember. A very good line. And, while we may not have a Will Fuller or Tyler Eifert-level talent at WR/TE, we've got plenty of guys who can catch the ball. Some of them will emerge.

 

[dad4aa]

Dline should be stout against run. But can they maintain the pocket? Rush the qb without allowing jailbreaks?

Linebackers are athletic, quite a bit of inexperience, but excited to watch this group.

CB as long as we stay healthy we'll get good enough play here. Least of my worries currently

S - should get solid play vs run teams, will find out how they cover. Pray for health here.

Overall D should be about as deep as ever (excluding S). Just alot of minimal experience in key spots, leading to the big unknowns.

I think this group is athletic and can hit. I'm excited to watch them.

If they are as good as last years D we are going to have a shot at playoff spot. If they are better, watch out.

Favorite post out of the past page and half. All excellent points. Excited to see what the guys will do when given a chance to be in the spotlight.

 

[Crazy Balki]

I think everyone here would (should) be very surprised if this defense is 2007 bad. BVG isn't perfect, but he certainly has more experience and talent to work with than that team, and he's certainly a much better defensive coach than Corwin Brown.

If BVG manages to coach that team down to 2007 levels, somebody needs to revoke his coaching license and send him packing.

 

[OCIrish]

I'm somewhat impressed.....all this negativity in this thread, and I've not contributed one iota....color me damned impressed!!!

 

[tko]

I'm somewhat impressed.....all this negativity in this thread, and I've not contributed one iota....color me damned impressed!!!

The night is young, OC!!!! BVG makes me negative because you just feel like the opposition is going to hang 35+ on us. I have no faith in his scheme or whatever you want to call it. Can someone on campus like some candles for a healthy defense the entire season?