Pessimistic Projection Thread!!!

[RuntheBall]

I'm sure [most] of you guys are familiar with things being broken down into quartiles. Sometimes you see computer simulations of the NCAA [or NFL] season which base projections based on 1000+ simulated seasons. So, with all of the Kool-Aid drinking going on I was thinking of getting a more pessimistic view on a "bad" season for us right now, which I will define at the 25th percentile (If we were to play out the season 100 times we would finish with a better record 75 times; or taking the 250th lowest record of the 1000 simulations).


Personally, here is my breakdown:

25th Percentile: 7.33-4.33 (I'm really struggling how we could only win 7 games unless something major happens)
50th Percentile: 9-3 (most likely loses to Michigan, Stanford, Oklahoma/ USC)
75th Percentile: 11-1

 

[Irish Houstonian]

I don't know about quartiles, but I was just thinking the other day that losing Manti, Eifert, Golson, Cave, KLM, Riddick and Wood is a big deal, and we might not be as dominant as we were last year. Basically I don't think going undefeated is in the cards.

 

[RDU Irish]

8-4 but it would require significant bad luck and a rash of injuries. I don't think a single injury can take us below 9-3 and we would have to be unlucky not to pick up at least one win between OU, Michigan and Stanford plus one other lesser team surprising us.

Pitt or BYU are my dark horse candidates to bite us in the rear. Their run defenses give us fits and we are likely to look past them.

If I break it into quartiles I pretty much get to one loss per quartile and undefeated falling into the 1/10 category. I was going to say 1/20 but then thought if we played this season out ten times I think we would win them all once.

 

[RDU Irish]

I don't think our draft losses are much to worry about. Two first day picks and four second day picks (one of which didn't suit up in 2012) is probably subpar for what I would expect of a perennial top 10 type of program (which is where I think we are). I'm more concerned about what we lose next year when it comes to elite talents at high value positions (Nix, Tuitt, Martin).

Wood and Cave went undrafted and Riddick was late 6th round. No need to worry about that unless the cupboard is bare behind them, which it is not.

 

[IrishinTN]

I suck at math. I have no idea what quartiles mean. Man, I can't wait for the season to get here...

 

[Kaneyoufeelit]

Tommy Rees is suspending for accepting money for his autograph. We go 7-6 after a loss to NC State in the Sport Clips Bowl Cut Bowl. Hood leaves for UCLA the day before enrolling at Notre Dame. Bob Diaco takes head coaching job at Iowa. Irishpat explodes

 

[ACamp1900]

Tommy Rees is suspending for accepting money for his autograph. We go 7-6 after a loss to NC State in the Sport Clips Bowl Cut Bowl. Hood leaves for UCLA the day before enrolling at Notre Dame. Bob Diaco takes head coaching job at Iowa. Irishpat explodes

I thought we were talking about bad things???

 

[ACamp1900]

Anyway, I don't think the D will be as shut down... simply because how can they be THAT good on scoring D two years running... I think they'll give up more points but be just as good generally speaking if that makes sense.

The offense COULD be a disaster... who is the running back??? You have to think someone emerges, but what if someone simply wins by default? No TE steps up in the passing game and Turnover Tommy comes back in full force...

And what if the return game continues to be so anemic??

IF all that happens (which I would say it most likely won’t, but it’s certainly not Fantasy Island to say it all could) then this team, facing this schedule, could easily lose five or six games…


That's as pessimistic as I can get...

 

[BGIF]

8-4 but it would require significant bad luck and a rash of injuries. I don't think a single injury can take us below 9-3 and we would have to be unlucky not to pick up at least one win between OU, Michigan and Stanford plus one other lesser team surprising us.

...

Despite all the fan whinning about turnovers, feet, arm, etc, etc, Rees would be the biggest individual loss and impact the W/L record the most. The gap between #1 and #2 is far bigger there than at any other position.

 

[Mr. Larson]

Completely pessimistic breakdown of our upcoming season:

Aug 31st Temple
ND 31 Temple 6

Amir Carlisle goes for 181 yards on 15 carries with 3 TDs, but blows out his larynx singing Notre Dame, Our Mother. Carlisle undergoes season ending vocal cord reconstruction surgery.

September 7th Michigan
scUM 35 ND 31

2011 all over again. Too painful to think about.

September 14th Purdue
ND 21 Purdue 14

Notre Dame fails to cover the spread leading to a six “vBroke and Need a Handout” threads.

September 21st
ND 28 Sparty 14

Michigan State scores to twice in the fourth to make it respectable. Tommy throws for 3 TDs, but each pass was a tad behind the receiver and had a bit too much loft. This leads to the Great Gameday Thread debacle of 2013. mbecka returns and posts a 4 page thesis on how a bigger bench press would allow Tommy to drive the ball into the receivers chest. Dozens are banned in the fallout.

September 28th
OU 22 ND 21

Belldozer scores on a two point conversion with 5 seconds left in the 4th. Visiting OU fans turn out to be d*ckheads on IE and won’t stop posting pictures of bulldozers.

October 5th
ND 31 ASU 10

I’m heading to Louisville for my cousin’s wedding and don’t get to watch this one. F*ck. Upon my arrival in Louisville I realize that I forgot to get a haircut. The only place I can get in last minute is Supercuts. Supercuts turns out to be something of a misnomer.

October 19th
ND 24 USC 7

Pat Haden schedules a press conference immediately following the game to announce the firing of Lane Kiffin. USC returns to powerhouse status by 2015.

Air Force through BYU

…what the eff could go wrong? Who am I kidding? One of these games will absolutely be closer than it should be and half of the board ends up on high blood pressure meds. ND wins three comfortably and has one close call.

College football fans notice that we play Air Force and Navy in consecutive weeks and go back to claiming "ND Only Plays Service Academies"

November 30th
Stanford 28 ND 21 (OT)
About 14,000 kinda-enthused Tree fans fill stick around to watch Stanford’s epic goal line stand to close out the game and solidify Stanford's undefeated season. If Atkinson hadn't been so upright he probably scores to tie the game.

Pessimistic: 9-3
Worst case...lose to USC and go 8-4

 

[BGIF]

Reps Mr. Larson the mbeckha was priceless.

 

[greyhammer90]

I think we lose to Arizona State. Seriously.

 

[IrishLion]

Completely pessimistic breakdown of our upcoming season:

Aug 31st Temple
ND 31 Temple 6

Amir Carlisle goes for 181 yards on 15 carries with 3 TDs, but blows out his larynx singing Notre Dame, Our Mother. Carlisle undergoes season ending vocal cord reconstruction surgery.

September 7th Michigan
scUM 35 ND 31

2011 all over again. Too painful to think about.

September 14th Purdue
ND 21 Purdue 14

Notre Dame fails to cover the spread leading to a six “vBroke and Need a Handout” threads.

September 21st
ND 28 Sparty 14

Michigan State scores to twice in the fourth to make it respectable. Tommy throws for 3 TDs, but each pass was a tad behind the receiver and had a bit too much loft. This leads to the Great Gameday Thread debacle of 2013. mbecka returns and posts a 4 page thesis on how a bigger bench press would allow Tommy to drive the ball into the receivers chest. Dozens are banned in the fallout.

September 28th
OU 22 ND 21

Belldozer scores on a two point conversion with 5 seconds left in the 4th. Visiting OU fans turn out to be d*ckheads on IE and won’t stop posting pictures of bulldozers.

October 5th
ND 31 ASU 10

I’m heading to Louisville for my cousin’s wedding and don’t get to watch this one. F*ck. Upon my arrival in Louisville I realize that I forgot to get a haircut. The only place I can get in last minute is Supercuts. Supercuts turns out to be something of a misnomer.

October 19th
ND 24 USC 7

Pat Haden schedules a press conference immediately following the game to announce the firing of Lane Kiffin. USC returns to powerhouse status by 2015.
Air Force through BYU

…what the eff could go wrong? Who am I kidding? One of these games will absolutely be closer than it should be and half of the board ends up on high blood pressure meds. ND wins three comfortably and has one close call.

College football fans notice that we play Air Force and Navy in consecutive weeks and go back to claiming "ND Only Plays Service Academies"

November 30th
Stanford 28 ND 21 (OT)
About 14,000 kinda-enthused Tree fans fill stick around to watch Stanford’s epic goal line stand to close out the game and solidify Stanford's undefeated season. If Atkinson hadn't been so upright he probably scores to tie the game.

Pessimistic: 9-3
Worst case...lose to USC and go 8-4

I think this might be the most genius post I've seen on this board in my time here. So much "inside" humor used so well. Especially the GAIII criticism. Reps.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I think we lose to Arizona State. Seriously.

I really hope not. Todd Graham is insufferable.

 

[greyhammer90]

I really hope not. Todd Graham is insufferable.

Todd Graham also has a history of playing/scheming against BK really effectively. I'm nervous for BK against Todd Graham like I'm not nervous for BK against Dantonio.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

Completely pessimistic breakdown of our upcoming season:

Aug 31st Temple
ND 31 Temple 6

Amir Carlisle goes for 181 yards on 15 carries with 3 TDs, but blows out his larynx singing Notre Dame, Our Mother. Carlisle undergoes season ending vocal cord reconstruction surgery.

September 7th Michigan
scUM 35 ND 31

2011 all over again. Too painful to think about.

September 14th Purdue
ND 21 Purdue 14

Notre Dame fails to cover the spread leading to a six “vBroke and Need a Handout” threads.

September 21st
ND 28 Sparty 14

Michigan State scores to twice in the fourth to make it respectable. Tommy throws for 3 TDs, but each pass was a tad behind the receiver and had a bit too much loft. This leads to the Great Gameday Thread debacle of 2013. mbecka returns and posts a 4 page thesis on how a bigger bench press would allow Tommy to drive the ball into the receivers chest. Dozens are banned in the fallout.

September 28th
OU 22 ND 21

Belldozer scores on a two point conversion with 5 seconds left in the 4th. Visiting OU fans turn out to be d*ckheads on IE and won’t stop posting pictures of bulldozers.

October 5th
ND 31 ASU 10

I’m heading to Louisville for my cousin’s wedding and don’t get to watch this one. F*ck. Upon my arrival in Louisville I realize that I forgot to get a haircut. The only place I can get in last minute is Supercuts. Supercuts turns out to be something of a misnomer.

October 19th
ND 24 USC 7

Pat Haden schedules a press conference immediately following the game to announce the firing of Lane Kiffin. USC returns to powerhouse status by 2015.

Air Force through BYU

…what the eff could go wrong? Who am I kidding? One of these games will absolutely be closer than it should be and half of the board ends up on high blood pressure meds. ND wins three comfortably and has one close call.

College football fans notice that we play Air Force and Navy in consecutive weeks and go back to claiming "ND Only Plays Service Academies"

November 30th
Stanford 28 ND 21 (OT)
About 14,000 kinda-enthused Tree fans fill stick around to watch Stanford’s epic goal line stand to close out the game and solidify Stanford's undefeated season. If Atkinson hadn't been so upright he probably scores to tie the game.

Pessimistic: 9-3
Worst case...lose to USC and go 8-4

This thread is so good everybody can have their favorite part, but I just love it, boldly!

 

[ulukinatme]

Todd Graham also has a history of playing/scheming against BK really effectively. I'm nervous for BK against Todd Graham like I'm not nervous for BK against Dantonio.

Word. Graham has shown he can hang with us, even if our team was younger and not as deep. I think he has more talent in ASU than he ever had in his previous stops.

 

[returnofthemack]

I feel like we had too much good luck last year for that not to roll the other way this time. I think Rees will do for michigan what He-Who-Cannot-Tie-His-Shoes did for us last year (2INTs, 2fumbles). Oklahoma will probably beat us - that game was extremely close until the Manti INT and the long bomb to Brown (say goodbye to passes over 30 yards). ASU will most likely beat us - they have good athleticism on defense, which Rees is really awesome against, and they have a good QB. USC is a tossup, I think we squeak by. We'll lose to one of AF, Navy, Pitt, BYU. And Rees will get injured against Stanford, Hendrix will lead a valiant but ultimately futile effort resulting in a 14-point loss. So 7-5. And who knows, maybe we won't drop a game to one of the inferior teams - so 8-4.

 

[IrishLion]

I feel like we had too much good luck last year for that not to roll the other way this time. I think Rees will do for michigan what He-Who-Cannot-Tie-His-Shoes did for us last year (2INTs, 2fumbles). Oklahoma will probably beat us - that game was extremely close until the Manti INT and the long bomb to Brown (say goodbye to passes over 30 yards). ASU will most likely beat us - they have good athleticism on defense, which Rees is really awesome against, and they have a good QB. USC is a tossup, I think we squeak by. We'll lose to one of AF, Navy, Pitt, BYU. And Rees will get injured against Stanford, Hendrix will lead a valiant but ultimately futile effort resulting in a 14-point loss. So 7-5. And who knows, maybe we won't drop a game to one of the inferior teams - so 8-4.

Jesus this guy's a bummer.

 

[returnofthemack]

Jesus this guy's a bummer.

Better to be wrong and pleasantly surprised than to believe we're underrated at #11 in preseason polls and that Tommy Rees can take us to a BCS bowl only to be horribly disappointed.

 

[IrishLion]

Better to be wrong and pleasantly surprised than to believe we're underrated at #11 in preseason polls and that Tommy Rees can take us to a BCS bowl only to be horribly disappointed.

I think #11 sounds about right; finish the regular season with a couple of losses, ranked right around 11, with a chance to finish ranked higher higher or lower. Finishing higher than 11 depends on (1) when the losses occur (2) who the loss occurred to and (3) the bowl game outcome (obviously).

However, this is the "pessimistic" prediction thread, so I'll get out of here with my "indifference" garbage.

 

[IrishFaninTX]

Jesus this guy's a bummer.

Did you not see 2011? I am pretty sure last year was the Universe's way of making up for 2011. We had more bad luck than anyone can imagine in 2011. We lost many players to injury, including Jonas Gray towards the end of the year. I think losing Gray was one of the main reasons we lost to Stanford and FSU. Once he was gone, Cierre couldn't do it alone and Theo wasn't quite back to his RB self. I don't think we go undefeated but 10-2 is not unreasonable. Barring any really bad luck again.

 

[NDWorld247]

Jesus this guy's a bummer.

This whole thread is a bummer. It probably won't win "Worst Thread of the Year", but it should definitely be a nominee. Lock this crap up.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

I am out.

 

[Rudy89]

We will go 6-6 at best. I love Tommy but I'm afraid we don't have the weapons to make up for his shortcomings. We win one major rivalry game (UM, MSU, Purdue, USC, Stanford) maybe and lose at least one game to a team that shouldn't even compete with us. We go to a crap bowl game and win a nail biter against a mid major school.

 

[Junkhead]

I will be amazed if we win even one game in the next 5 years.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

8-4 sounds about right. Fine with me, at least we'll actually have a chance to win the bowl game.

*was that pessimistic enough?

 

[IrishLax]

With a couple injuries, we have a 6-6 team against the schedule we are playing. My nightmare scenario is that Zach Martin and Chris Watt go down... and then our entire offense which is predicated on running the ball goes to hell. Then let's say we lose Nix and Tuitt injures. All of a sudden we have an average team with an average DL and below average QB/OL trying to win games against a schedule that includes front runners from 3 different power conferences.

Let's say all the guys I mention go down in fall camp... I think we go W, L, W, Toss Up, L, L, L, W, W, W, Toss Up, L. That's 6-6.

Alternatively, even if nothing goes wrong with our team, the other nightmare scenario is that with a defense that is not designed particularly well to stop a mobile QB who is either accurate, efficient, or good with the long ball... if Gardner, Bell, and Hogan all play similar to what they showed last year we will be OK, but if they all take big leaps we should be heavy underdogs in those games as they all have very solid supporting casts. And what if USC can stay healthy and gets a big bump on defense from Pendergast? It's possible that we end up playing 4 top 10 teams this year and despite being a very good team just get outplayed. That's 8-4 base without any hiccups against potential top 25 ASU, BYU, and MSU. I think there is a good reason Vegas, the odds, Football Outsiders, etc. are all predicting about 8 wins.

 

[ClausentoTate]

We lose to South Florida, then lose a 21 point lead in the 4th against UM to start 0-2