Nov 16 | Navy

[InKellyWeTrust]

I was able to lock it in at Navy +10. There is no earthly reason for ND to be favored in this game, Navy is the better team.

Unless Clark Lea and his boys turn in a masterpiece I did not see ND winning. If ND does win, it’s gonna be a one possession game. Free money.

I dont know. If the Irish jump out to a lead like last night it could be a long day for Navy.

 

[stlnd01]

I was able to lock it in at Navy +10. There is no earthly reason for ND to be favored in this game, Navy is the better team.

Unless Clark Lea and his boys turn in a masterpiece I did not see ND winning. If ND does win, it’s gonna be a one possession game. Free money.

Really? I haven't watched any Navy this year but are they any different than usual? I know they have a good record but do they have a defense or a passing game? Because if they don't, it's the usual playbook. Score early, get ahead, unleash our front seven, make the tackles.
Yes we have to execute, but if we do, how do they beat us?

 

[Ndaccountant]

Really? I haven't watched any Navy this year but are they any different than usual? I know they have a good record but do they have a defense or a passing game? Because if they don't, it's the usual playbook. Score early, get ahead, unleash our front seven, make the tackles.
Yes we have to execute, but if we do, how do they beat us?

Their defense is better than their norm, significantly better.

Overall, their FEI rank is 15th, while ND is 23rd. (For FEI, all drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.)

In 2017, Navy ended at 38th (ND won the game by 7, back and forth game where ND scored late in the third and early in the fourth to get the lead).

In 2016, Navy ended at 33rd and beat ND that year.

On paper this is their best team since 2015, when they went 10-2. That year, ND beat them 41-24, but that game was marred by two Navy fumbles inside their own 25 that ended up being the difference. Without those, that game would have been a dogfight. I fully expect this week to be no different.

 

[dad4aa]

I always hate the injuries we get out of this game and this year we already have too many injuries.

 

[NDdomer2]

Their defense is better than their norm, significantly better.

Overall, their FEI rank is 15th, while ND is 23rd. (For FEI, all drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.)

In 2017, Navy ended at 38th (ND won the game by 7, back and forth game where ND scored late in the third and early in the fourth to get the lead).

In 2016, Navy ended at 33rd and beat ND that year.

On paper this is their best team since 2015, when they went 10-2. That year, ND beat them 41-24, but that game was marred by two Navy fumbles inside their own 25 that ended up being the difference. Without those, that game would have been a dogfight. I fully expect this week to be no different.

How does their opponents having significantly less possessions get captured in the fei rankings?

 

[ulukinatme]

I always hate the injuries we get out of this game and this year we already have too many injuries.

Watch this be the year that no one gets injured against Navy cause we're over the allotted Karma injuries for 2019. That would be nice.

 

[IrishLax]

Their defense is better than their norm, significantly better.

Overall, their FEI rank is 15th, while ND is 23rd. (For FEI, all drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.)

In 2017, Navy ended at 38th (ND won the game by 7, back and forth game where ND scored late in the third and early in the fourth to get the lead).

In 2016, Navy ended at 33rd and beat ND that year.

On paper this is their best team since 2015, when they went 10-2. That year, ND beat them 41-24, but that game was marred by two Navy fumbles inside their own 25 that ended up being the difference. Without those, that game would have been a dogfight. I fully expect this week to be no different.

Basically this. Their offense is typically pretty efficient, and this year they are a little better than normal. Their defense is a LOT better than normal. And that's the scary part.

 

[ACamp1900]

I was able to lock it in at Navy +10. There is no earthly reason for ND to be favored in this game, Navy is the better team.

Unless Clark Lea and his boys turn in a masterpiece I did not see ND winning. If ND does win, it’s gonna be a one possession game. Free money.

So,... did I get drunk, steal your login info and then blackout, losing all memory of the events in question??? Because,.... damn this is bitch.

 

[zelezo vlk]

I actually thought the defense being bad the past couple years was the reason why they were comparatively down. The great Navy teams had mostly solid defenses, tho I could be misremembering.

And on that 2017 Navy game. Most miserable game I've been to in ND Stadium and I was at 2008 Syracuse and the "record cold" 2013 BYU game. 2017 Navy was just the worst.

Sent from my SM-J337U using Tapatalk

 

[Bluto]

If ND does not beat the living crap outta Navy, then it’s fair to assume they ain’t that good. Every good ND team during the Kelly era has done so.

 

[Bluto]

I actually thought the defense being bad the past couple years was the reason why they were comparatively down. The great Navy teams had mostly solid defenses, tho I could be misremembering.

And on that 2017 Navy game. Most miserable game I've been to in ND Stadium and I was at 2008 Syracuse and the "record cold" 2013 BYU game. 2017 Navy was just the worst.

Sent from my SM-J337U using Tapatalk

Dude. That 2017 game was the shits. Total freezing rain. I kept telling my kid “this builds character.” Lol.

 

[zelezo vlk]

Dude. That 2017 game was the shits. Total freezing rain. I kept telling my kid “this builds character.” Lol.

Dude I walked around inside a lot to warmup again. Couldn't stay warm in that soaked stadium.

Sent from my SM-J337U using Tapatalk

 

[Ndaccountant]

How does their opponents having significantly less possessions get captured in the fei rankings?

All of the metrics get boiled down to a per possession basis (adjusted for clock kills, end of half, garbage time, etc), then each team is ranked off of that.

 

[ulukinatme]

Basically this. Their offense is typically pretty efficient, and this year they are a little better than normal. Their defense is a LOT better than normal. And that's the scary part.

So,... did I get drunk, steal your login info and then blackout, losing all memory of the events in question??? Because,.... damn this is bitch.

Yeah, I think if they come out like they did last weekend, I think we will win. Navy is better this year, but their record is a bit of a sham since they've lost to the only decent team they've played.

 

[vuirish]

Anyone else find this game excruciating to watch every year? Knowing there are only 10 or so offensive possessions each game, no lead is ever safe.

 

[Wingman Ray]

Anyone else find this game excruciating to watch every year? Knowing there are only 10 or so offensive possessions each game, no lead is ever safe.

This is a no win game. Lose and you suck. Win and odds are 2-4 players see injured reserve the following few weeks. ND rarely gets through a Navy game without injured DLmen.

 

[vuirish]

This is a no win game. Lose and you suck. Win and odds are 2-4 players see injured reserve the following few weeks. ND rarely gets through a Navy game without injured DLmen.

Next two years, both Navy and GTech are on the schedule. Build that DL depth please.

 

[Rocket 94]

Next two years, both Navy and GTech are on the schedule. Build that DL depth please.

Thankfully Georgia Tech doesn't run the option any longer with Paul Johnson retired.

 

[T-Boone]

Anyone else find this game excruciating to watch every year? Knowing there are only 10 or so offensive possessions each game, no lead is ever safe.

Without much running game it is a worry. I am guessing the offense goes for it on 4th more against Navy.

 

[irishtrooper]

I was able to lock it in at Navy +10. There is no earthly reason for ND to be favored in this game, Navy is the better team.

Unless Clark Lea and his boys turn in a masterpiece I did not see ND winning. If ND does win, it’s gonna be a one possession game. Free money.

Are you high? Just kidding, but that’s a bit silly in my view. ND is better. I get that we crapped the bed against Michigan, but we are trending up and have been much better lately against Navy. Their record is somewhat a product of their schedule this year. Fool’s gold. I’m very confident we win. Maybe closer than I’d like, but we definitely win

 

[SouthernIndianaNDFan]

I have a good feeling about this one, which is strange cuz I'n generally a realist (pessimist lol) and they will legit have their hands full. They struggle with bad Navy teams, and this one is probably the best in the BK era. Prediction: ND 27-16

 

[irishtrain]

Man I hate this game-trying to get the ball back trying to catch up with the clock running-I hope these guys know what they are in for and get off to a fast start

 

[rtrn2glory]

Gotta feeling this is going to be very frustrating to watch

 

[stlnd01]

This all boils down to our offense. If we can score 28+ points, we'll win.

Michigan and the first half of Louisville excepted, our front seven has bottled up running games and mobile QBs just fine. Our DBs have all seen Navy before. I'm not worried about the defense one bit.

On offense, hopefully we get Good Ian and can just out-athlete them with Claypool, Kmet and Armstrong on the perimeter. A running game would be gravy. Get ahead early and don't blow possessions being overly cautious or making dumb mistakes.

No reason we should lose this game.

 

[tko]

Gotta feeling this is going to be very frustrating to watch

It always is. Hopefully Clark has them dialed in and we can get a few extra stops and turn them into scores. I'm wondering how those in the top 5 of the rankings would fare vs Navy? Perhaps they all have just that much more talent and speed to neutralize the Middies? I don't think any of those opponents would get the Navy effort like Navy brings against us. It's second to only the Army rivalry.

 

[Irish2155]

Having Gilman makes me feel better than I have in past years about playing option offenses.

 

[IRISHMAN]

Without much running game it is a worry. I am guessing the offense goes for it on 4th more against Navy.

agreed. if ND had a dominate running game i'd feel more confident about this game, NDs offense this year is the biggest liability going into this game (way to many sloppy performances this year). ND will only get so many possessions so they can not afford to waste them and they defiantly can not go 3 and out on their opening possession. this game will come down to NDs underperforming OL, they need to get the running game going and protect book with their pass protection.

 

[Wingman Ray]

There should be no way Navy should be able to stop NDs pass offense. No offense to Navy players but they dont have a single guy that should be able to play with Claypool and Kmet. If they do, then you really, really have to put that on BK and the OC playcalling. There is not a single player on Navys team that would even be offered a ND scholarship much less start. Just a HUGE disparity in talent.

People can counter with saying OSU nearly loss to Navy and there is merit there. However, ND plays Navy every single year and has tons of info and strategy on them. OSU played them once. Even BK says they recruit an option experienced player simply to run the Navy offense in practice. So ND really has no excuse.

This game should be air raid city. If ND turns this into a pound the ground they will lose. ND has to score when they have the ball and that means giving it to the best players on offense and that does not include the run game!

 

[SouthernIndianaNDFan]

Weird, I just looked at the TOP stats, and Navy is fairly high but they're behind 3 other teams we play(ed) this year, Virginia, Georgia, and eventually Stanford. So, we play 4 of the top TOP teams in the country.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

SP+ predicts a 4 point Irish victory:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">&#55357;&#57000;&#55357;&#56485; WEEK 12 SP+ PICKS &#55357;&#56485;&#55357;&#57000;<br><br>* Oh hey, another tight UNC game<br>* PSU 34, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/9WINDIANA?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#9WINDIANA</a> 22<br>* Mich 28, Mich State 15<br>* ND 30, Navy 26<br>* Georgia 25, Auburn 21<br>* Minnesota 27, Iowa 24<br>* OU 34, Baylor 27<br>* Utah 40, UCLA 16<br><br>And the most important game of the week...<br>* NW'ern 40, UMass 10 <a href="https://t.co/XgFBObATAF">pic.twitter.com/XgFBObATAF</a></p>— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1194615172180185090?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 13, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>