Democratic Primary Thread (New Poll - January)

[GoIrish41]

I agree with most of your picks, but it's all about the delegates. Bloomberg is a thorn in Biden's side right now, preventing this from becoming a two-man race between him and Sanders. I suspect that Sanders will pick up a ton of delegates tomorrow -- perhaps lapping any other candidate left in the race. If this happens, it will be really difficult for anyone to catch up, leaving a contested convention as the only viable alternative for any moderate candidate. And if that happens, all of this is moot because progressives will again stay home Nov. 3 feeling betrayed (again) by the Democratic Party establishment.

My Super Tuesday predictions...

Alabama - Biden Bloomberg is polling well here and will challenge Biden, and in doing so will either win or cut deeply into Biden's delegate hall. Bernie is likely to finish in third but be over the 15% threshold to get some of the statewide delegates
Arkansas - Biden Bernie is right on Biden's heels. Although Biden is likely to win, the delegates awarded will likely be pretty close.
California - Bern - Bernie is up by 16.7 in the California primary. Only Biden is over the 15% threshold to get any statewide delegates. If Biden doesn't reach 15%, Bernie could roll to 300+ statewide delegates in Cali, plus whatever he picks up in voting districts..
Colorado - Bern Bernie up by 12 over Warren, but she is the only candidate over 15% support. Of course that may change, but a lot of folks have already voted when Bernie was on fire, so this one is going to come down to the wire. I'm with you, though. Bernie squeaks this one out in a state that seems to prefer Progressive candidates.
Maine - Bern Sanders is whipping everyone here. Warren is the only other candidate who is polling over 15%. Bloomberg is also running ahead of Biden as is Warren
Massachusetts - Warren, but Bern a close 2nd Sanders is up by 4, and it looks like Warren will be the only one left to pick up any delegates if things don't shift substantially for another moderate candidate like Biden. Right now Biden is just over 10%.
Minnesota - Bern with Klob a close 2nd Klobuchar is ahead of Bernie by 6 points in her home state, and none of the other candidates have the requisite 15% support needed to get statewide delegates.
North Carolina - Toss up with Biden/Sanders [/B]Agreed. But Biden has to win big to make up for potential catastrophic loss in California.[/B].
Oklahoma - Bern (As of February 24) Biden was up by only 1 point over Bloomberg, who is likely to singlehandedly knock Biden out of contention after Super Tuesday. Sanders holds the fundraising lead here primarily from small donors. We'll have to wait for tomorrow to see how well that translates into votes.
Tennessee - Biden Seems likely based on demographics and history, but I think it'll be closer than it should be. Sanders organizational advantage over Biden will be tested here.
Texas - Toss up, narrow win Sanders - Bernie up by 6 points as of 3/1.
Utah - Bern I agree Bernie up by 11 points over Bloomberg, Buttigieg, and Warren. Biden did not reach the 15% threshold in the latest polling, but it was conducted before Buttigieg dropped out so it'll be interesting to see who gets the lion's share of his support.
Vermont - Bern Of course. Sanders is up by 38 points in a poll from the beginning of the month. There is no reason to believe that this will change. Nobody else has 15% support.
Virginia - Biden Sanders up by 3 over Biden but tied with Bloomberg, whose candidacy is probably going to kneecap Biden at least through Super Tuesday and make it nearly impossible for him to catch Sanders

 

[GoIrish41]

You said they (dem establishment) would be wise to get behind the winner. I'm not so sure they agree. We'll see.

I should have said DNC, but your point is well taken. The establishment on both sides seems most interested in their own bottom lines. Bernie isn't very popular among the donor class, which is precisely why he's more popular among the average voter, IMO.

 

[ulukinatme]

If the majority or a plurality of voters vote Democratic, that doesn't mean that America is becoming Socialist?

Doubtful. Even in the Democratic party socialism has a very small edge in support compared to capitalism, but among Conservatives there's almost no support. When it comes down to it, most people will vote for whoever the candidate is that occupies the nomination for the party they most closely identify with. For a variety of reasons, some of which include a poor field of candidates and missteps that have hurt their chances, the current crop of Democrat candidates have opened the way for Bernie to likely win the nomination. He does have a strong base of youthful voters, but statistics have recently shown that just as many Democrats support socialism as they do capitalism while only 7% of Republicans support socialism. Looking at numbers from 2009 it looks like capitalism was more favorable to socialism, but it was a close margin much as it is today in that party. So, I don't know if the country as a whole is becoming more Socialist, but the Democrat party has shifted a bit that way in the last decade. When it comes down to it, Bernie is probably the most charismatic of the candidates the Democrats are currently fielding. Even if many in the party don't support his stance, they'll eventually unify and most will vote for him come election time if he's their only option against Trump.

 

[Irish YJ]

I agree with most of your picks, but it's all about the delegates. Bloomberg is a thorn in Biden's side right now, preventing this from becoming a two-man race between him and Sanders. I suspect that Sanders will pick up a ton of delegates tomorrow -- perhaps lapping any other candidate left in the race. If this happens, it will be really difficult for anyone to catch up, leaving a contested convention as the only viable alternative for any moderate candidate. And if that happens, all of this is moot because progressives will again stay home Nov. 3 feeling betrayed (again) by the Democratic Party establishment.

Don't forget the impact of Buttigieg and Steyer leaving. Buttigieg's votes likely split between Biden and Warren, and Steyer's between Biden and Bloomberg. In other words, none of the current polls taken into account the redistribution of those votes, so could be closer than expected in places.

On Bloomberg, I think he's topped out. He'll get the bought votes, but has the personality of a doorknob, and isn't going to rally many folks outside of NY.

I'm rooting for Bernie. It'll be the best debate entertainment ever if he and Trump are on the same stage. And I think Biden would be a complete gaffe disaster vs Trump. Bernie will be the easier win for Trump though as far as the election is concerned.

 

[koonja]

Who does Trump fare better against?

Bernie?
Biden?
Bloomington?

 

[GoIrish41]

Don't forget the impact of Buttigieg and Steyer leaving. Buttigieg's votes likely split between Biden and Warren, and Steyer's between Biden and Bloomberg. In other words, none of the current polls taken into account the redistribution of those votes, so could be closer than expected in places.

On Bloomberg, I think he's topped out. He'll get the bought votes, but has the personality of a doorknob, and isn't going to rally many folks outside of NY.

I'm rooting for Bernie. It'll be the best debate entertainment ever if he and Trump are on the same stage. And I think Biden would be a complete gaffe disaster vs Trump. Bernie will be the easier win for Trump though as far as the election is concerned.

We agree to a point. If you add up Buttigieg's and Stayer's support in California and assume they will all go to Biden it would make California, for example, closer and probably reduce the delegate damage done there by Bernie (which could make a big difference). Biden did well in SC, but he did terrible in every other state so far. I'm not sure that's going to translate into a swell of support for Biden in the super Tuesday states. Buttigieg wasn't polling well in most of the super Tuesday states -- same with Steyer, except a couple that he has poured buckets of money into. There's no guarantee that other states are going to mimic the results in SC. Support from Buttigieg and Steyer are going to be spread out over several candidate (including Sanders) and likely won't make a big difference tomorrow. Those polls definitely mean there is going to be movement in who people support, but to my eye, it isn't even close to a sure thing that that support will flow to Biden in any major way. I could be wrong, but SC hasn't convinced me that Biden is any more viable with folks in states in which he was consistently running in the back of the pack. We'll know tomorrow, I suppose.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Doubtful. Even in the Democratic party socialism has a very small edge in support compared to capitalism, but among Conservatives there's almost no support.

Not so sure about that.

Since most European countries can be described as "socialist" to varying degrees, the term lacks the scare value it held during the Cold War. And you could easily label a policy package that included robust welfare programs, a jobs guarantee, embargos against countries seeking to undercut our markets, etc. as "socialist", and still pick up a ton of disaffected Trump voters.

 

[GoIrish41]

Not so sure about that.

Since most European countries can be described as "socialist" to varying degrees, the term lacks the scare value it held during the Cold War. And you could easily label a policy package that included robust welfare programs, a jobs guarantee, embargos against countries seeking to undercut our markets, etc. as "socialist", and still pick up a ton of disaffected Trump voters.

Yep.

https://www.newsweek.com/76-percent...te-socialist-president-new-poll-shows-1486732

 

[Irish YJ]

Who does Trump fare better against?

Bernie?
Biden?
Bloomington?

I doubt he's afraid of any, but would you rather go up against a

1. An angry old Castro loving socialist/communist
2. An angry old man who thinks he's John Wayne, makes stuff up, a gaffe machine, with a complete lightning rod for a son...
or
3. A tiny elitist billionaire pretend to be democrat, who has racist and misogynist gaffes.

 

[koonja]

I doubt he's afraid of any, but would you rather go up against a

1. An angry old Castro loving socialist/communist
2. An angry old man who thinks he's John Wayne, makes stuff up, a gaffe machine, with a complete lightning rod for a son...
or
3. A tiny elitist billionaire pretend to be democrat, who has racist and misogynist gaffes.

I honestly don't know.

 

[ACamp1900]

I doubt he's afraid of any, but would you rather go up against a

1. An angry old Castro loving socialist/communist
2. An angry old man who thinks he's John Wayne, makes stuff up, a gaffe machine, with a complete lightning rod for a son...
or
3. A tiny elitist billionaire pretend to be democrat, who has racist and misogynist gaffes.

My gut tells me the Sanders would be Trump's pick but I also laughed at Trump all the way to the White House so what do I know....

 

[gkIrish]

FWIW, my parents are immigrants from Europe and the thought of Bernie Sanders being President scares them way more than another four years of Donald Trump. I can tell the vast majority of their friends feel the same way.

 

[stlnd01]

Who does Trump fare better against?

Bernie?
Biden?
Bloomington?

Of those three I think Biden is the one who would ultimately have the broadest support in a general election. But he’s so old - not even in age so much as political style - and is easy to paint as “corrupt.” I think Trump would love to run against him.

The Dems have really painted themselves into a corner here.

 

[koonja]

From what very little I know (virtually nothing), it seems like there's a lot of people who don't fully understand anything beyond the surface that think "free healthcare, free tuition, student debt relief" sounds like heaven.

And ignorant people's vote counts just as much... There are a lot more people who think that sounds awesome than there are people who understand how crippling that will be for American people overall and long term.

So my gut tells me Bernie has a chance and I pray to God I'm wrong.

 

[BGIF]

Klobuchar To Suspend Campaign, Endorse Biden

Klobuchar To Suspend Campaign, Endorse Biden

CNN Breaking News


Amy Klobuchar will end 2020 presidential campaign and endorse Joe Biden
By Dan Merica, Kyung Lah and Jasmine Wright, CNN

Updated 1:32 PM ET, Mon March 2, 2020

(CNN)Sen. Amy Klobuchar will end her presidential bid on Monday and endorse Joe Biden, a campaign aide tells CNN.

The Klobuchar campaign confirmed that the senator is flying to Dallas to join the former vice president at his rally, where she will suspend her campaign and give her endorsement on the eve of Super Tuesday.

This story is breaking and will be updated.

 

[BGIF]

Pete, Amy ...


The DNC is working overtime.


Dana Bash CNN reporting there may be another motive to Amy withdrawing before SuperTuesday. Klobuchar is proud of her record of NOT losing an election that string of victories is in jeopardy in Minnesota tomorrow. Brianna Keilar added that Klobuchar also gets some TEAM points for pulling out at this time to influence the hopeful winner.

 

[IrishLax]

Pete, Amy ...


The DNC is working overtime.

Making it sound like the people that comprise this party aren't organically rallying around anyone-but-Sanders.

 

[Irish YJ]

I honestly don't know.

I'd prefer Bernie if I were the Don.

My gut tells me the Sanders would be Trump's pick but I also laughed at Trump all the way to the White House so what do I know....

Same here. 2016 is still surreal to me. But now, while I still hate a lot about Trump, I love many of the things he's doing, and absolutely love the ways the Dems freak out.

Pete, Amy ...


The DNC is working overtime.

I'm sure the DNC is also begging Warren to stay in as long as possible too.

 

[Wild Bill]

From what very little I know (virtually nothing), it seems like there's a lot of people who don't fully understand anything beyond the surface that think "free healthcare, free tuition, student debt relief" sounds like heaven.

And ignorant people's vote counts just as much... There are a lot more people who think that sounds awesome than there are people who understand how crippling that will be for American people overall and long term.

So my gut tells me Bernie has a chance and I pray to God I'm wrong.

The ignorance cuts both ways. We can argue the numbers but I think it's clear that "socialism" is a trend gaining support, and very few people on either the left or the right are willing to consider the reasons. Instead, they seem content to call it crazy or list off the reasons why it's going to cripple the economy.

The problem with this strategy is that the people willing to embrace socialism really don't give a shit about the net affect b/c the current system is leaving them behind - student loan debt exceeds a trillion dollars, home ownership is declining, healthcare is outrageous, family formation is increasingly difficult for the middle class, etc.

Somehow I doubt explaining the crippling affects of socialism to a guy with $100k of student loan debt who has no realistic opportunity of ever owning a piece of land or having enough disposable income to secure a woman and have children will be receptive to the message.

I'm not a proponent of socialism. I just see it as inevitable unless the ruling class, both on the left and the right, begin to honestly consider the cause and address the issue.

 

[Irishize]

From what very little I know (virtually nothing), it seems like there's a lot of people who don't fully understand anything beyond the surface that think "free healthcare, free tuition, student debt relief" sounds like heaven.

And ignorant people's vote counts just as much... There are a lot more people who think that sounds awesome than there are people who understand how crippling that will be for American people overall and long term.

So my gut tells me Bernie has a chance and I pray to God I'm wrong.

Think of all the eligible voters who weren’t alive when Communism was being practiced by a super power All they know is the romanticism of Che Guevara, the Sandinista “freedom fighters” & Castro. Then you have the homogeneous Nordic countries who they see as Utopia which belies their progressive insistence on cultural melting pots. They’ll likely outgrow it at some point...or become lifelong bureaucrats working for govt in a job created by the New Green Deal.

 

[GoIrish41]

The ignorance cuts both ways. We can argue the numbers but I think it's clear that "socialism" is a trend gaining support, and very few people on either the left or the right are willing to consider the reasons. Instead, they seem content to call it crazy or list off the reasons why it's going to cripple the economy.

The problem with this strategy is that the people willing to embrace socialism really don't give a shit about the net affect b/c the current system is leaving them behind - student loan debt exceeds a trillion dollars, home ownership is declining, healthcare is outrageous, family formation is increasingly difficult for the middle class, etc.

Somehow I doubt explaining the crippling affects of socialism to a guy with $100k of student loan debt who has no realistic opportunity of ever owning a piece of land or having enough disposable income to secure a woman and have children will be receptive to the message.

I'm not a proponent of socialism. I just see it as inevitable unless the ruling class, both on the left and the right, begin to honestly consider the cause and address the issue.

This.

Everyone saying Sanders will cripple the economy is guessing. People know what the status quo has done for them, and a lot of folks want to try something else. My kids are Gen Z -- there is no stigma to socialism for them. The priorities of the young are to focus on the environment and access to health care. Unless someone comes up with a better plan that doesn't make them an afterthought, they are not at all freaked out by socialism. Moreover, they understand the difference between pure socialism (which nobody is advocating for) and FDR-type New Deal proposals that consider their needs.

 

[stlnd01]

.

I'm not a proponent of socialism. I just see it as inevitable unless the ruling class, both on the left and the right, begin to honestly consider the cause and address the issue.

This.

Sanders and Trump are just different people’s’ response to the same problem. A system that isn’t working for people, enough that they’re willing to vote for someone who says he’ll blow it up, long-term consequences be damned. Biden, essentially, represents the system, asking for another chance and a return to “normal.”.

Will be fascinating to see if more people - in the Dem primary or the general election - want to vote for the system, or against it.

 

[Legacy]

The 538 link I posted earlier, highlighting Texas polling for current candidates is also searchable for other states.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/texas/

As with Texas, candidates must get 15% of the vote to get delegates. Warren at 15%, Bloomberg at 12%. If either do not get delegates from Texas or California, they would drop out.

 

[Irish YJ]

The ignorance cuts both ways. We can argue the numbers but I think it's clear that "socialism" is a trend gaining support, and very few people on either the left or the right are willing to consider the reasons. Instead, they seem content to call it crazy or list off the reasons why it's going to cripple the economy.

The problem with this strategy is that the people willing to embrace socialism really don't give a shit about the net affect b/c the current system is leaving them behind - student loan debt exceeds a trillion dollars, home ownership is declining, healthcare is outrageous, family formation is increasingly difficult for the middle class, etc.

Somehow I doubt explaining the crippling affects of socialism to a guy with $100k of student loan debt who has no realistic opportunity of ever owning a piece of land or having enough disposable income to secure a woman and have children will be receptive to the message.

I'm not a proponent of socialism. I just see it as inevitable unless the ruling class, both on the left and the right, begin to honestly consider the cause and address the issue.

I understand, and agree to an extent with what you are implying, but I also think it's other things too. Like simply the rise of "free shit" and "victim" culture. And I've seen several rich kids who have conservative parents (my friends) come back indoctrinated from NE schools... They don't have loans at all, will have careers lined up for them, and were born with silver spoons glued to their hands.

Every student applying for a loan should be required to do the math (what the degree is worth, and ROA). I worked my way through school, and simply have zero sympathy for these entitled shits.

 

[Irish YJ]

This.

Sanders and Trump are just different people’s’ response to the same problem. A system that isn’t working for people, enough that they’re willing to vote for someone who says he’ll blow it up, long-term consequences be damned. Biden, essentially, represents the system, asking for another chance and a return to “normal.”.

Will be fascinating to see if more people - in the Dem primary or the general election - want to vote for the system, or against it.

I know we've had this conversation before, but I disagree it's the "same problem". Trump voters had a problem with big gov, politics in general, immigration, abortion, and the drift to the left. Trump wasn't trying to take the country farther right from traditional GOP values. Bernie voters are begging for bigger gov and war on the rich, want to go far left, and are totally transforming democratic values. In short, one wants a return to traditional values of the party, the other wants entirely new values for the party. The only thing similar is unhappiness. Both sides see the problems as something very different.

 

[ulukinatme]

Not so sure about that.

Since most European countries can be described as "socialist" to varying degrees, the term lacks the scare value it held during the Cold War. And you could easily label a policy package that included robust welfare programs, a jobs guarantee, embargos against countries seeking to undercut our markets, etc. as "socialist", and still pick up a ton of disaffected Trump voters.

Yep.

https://www.newsweek.com/76-percent...te-socialist-president-new-poll-shows-1486732

This was about a week ago from CNN, I posted it in this thread:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/20/politics/sanders-bloomberg-socialist-president/index.html

It is true the Sanders was leading in the poll, conducted by the Wall Street Journal and NBC -- but only among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents when asked who they supported for the Democratic nomination. He had 27% support compared to Mike Bloomberg, Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, each with 14% support. And in a hypothetical matchup, he was narrowly ahead of President Donald Trump.

But two-thirds of all voters -- Democrats plus everyone else -- said they would be uncomfortable with a socialist President.

Take a look at the party breakdown regarding socialism. Fifty percent of Democrats have a favorable view of socialism compared to 46% who have a favorable view of capitalism.
But again, socialism is far less favorable than capitalism in the country as a whole. In the NPR poll, among Americans overall, just 28% had a favorable view of socialism compared to 57% who had a favorable view of capitalism.
Among Republicans, 76% held a favorable view of capitalism compared to 7% who felt favorably about socialism.
And, among independents -- who may or may not decide the next presidential election -- it was 23% who had a favorable view of socialism compared to 59% who had a favorable view of capitalism.
And while views of socialism are slightly favorable among Democrats, they're below 35% for whites (25%), minorities (33%), Gen Xers (28%), Baby Boomers (20%), and the Silent Generation (20%).
Favorable views of socialism are greatest among younger adults (38% favorable), who just happen to also be Sanders' base of support.

So, if America is becoming more socialist it's mostly the younger generation taking up that cause. People generally are more progressive in their younger years and gravitate more toward the middle (Or even on occasion to the right) with age. It'll be interesting to see what the younger generation does in the years to come, but according to this capitalism is still more favorable overall. Don't misunderstand, Democrats will vote for Sanders according to the Gallup poll in that Newsweek article, but it doesn't mean they're going to like it. They'll bite the bullet if it means ousting Trump.

 

[Wild Bill]

I understand, and agree to an extent with what you are implying, but I also think it's other things too. Like simply the rise of "free shit" and "victim" culture. And I've seen several rich kids who have conservative parents (my friends) come back indoctrinated from NE schools... They don't have loans at all, will have careers lined up for them, and were born with silver spoons glued to their hands.

Every student applying for a loan should be required to do the math (what the degree is worth, and ROA). I worked my way through school, and simply have zero sympathy for these entitled shits.

What about the creditors and the schools? Placing the burden solely on 18 year olds and allowing institutions to escape the consequences of bad financial decisions (lending hundreds of thousands to someone that has never worked or demonstrated the ability to repay the loan) or offering substandard products (shit degrees) is how we got here in the first place.

I worked my way through school and have repaid in excess of $100k to creditors servicing my student loans since I graduated so I have a hard time sympathizing with people who make bad decisions too. I'm not interested in sympathy or releasing people from individual responsiblity, nor am I a leftist hell bent on fairness. I look at this from the right and I see no benefit in giving cover to leftist dominated institutions like our universities and banks, while turning our backs to young people who we need to push both our ideas and nation forward.

 

[Legacy]

Up until now, Eugene Debs was our most prominent Socialist, who early in the twentieth century, ran for President five times, supported strikes against the ruling class in an era when there were few or any unions, spoke against the draft and American participation in WW1. Wilson and Congress were angered and passed the Sedition Act of 1918, prohibiting any free speech rights that spoke against the war. He was imprisoned based on that, convicted of treason. To see Sanders ascension in the primaries over other candidates and his significant support is remarkable in comparison. He may not be attracting new voters into the party and have some support - but not widespread - among the "working class" who have watched their unions busted, lost benefits and must rely on federal safety net programs.

Is much of this because many people no longer see the opportunity that used to be integral to the American Dream?

 

[stlnd01]

I know we've had this conversation before, but I disagree it's the "same problem". Trump voters had a problem with big gov, politics in general, immigration, abortion, and the drift to the left. Trump wasn't trying to take the country farther right from traditional GOP values. Bernie voters are begging for bigger gov and war on the rich, want to go far left, and are totally transforming democratic values. In short, one wants a return to traditional values of the party, the other wants entirely new values for the party. The only thing similar is unhappiness. Both sides see the problems as something very different.

If Trump voters were animated by “traditional GOP values” in 2016, they would’ve voted for Ted Cruz or Rubio or someone like that. Instead they nominated a non-politician, who was barely even a Republican for most of his life, who said all the outrageous things typical politicians never say and promised to blow up the system, drain the swamp, take on the elites, blah blah blah.

Trump ran as a populist. Just like Bernie. They may have different diagnoses of the problems facing our country and how to fix them. But fundamentally they and many (not all) of their voters see the root of the problem as a “corrupt” and disconnected establishment that doesn’t do enough to help everyday Americans. There’s a reason they both went at Hillary Clinton so hard.

It’ll be very interesting to see if Biden can overcome that.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I can’t stop watching this <a href="https://t.co/GIDFU3Xa98">pic.twitter.com/GIDFU3Xa98</a></p>— LB (@beyondreasdoubt) <a href="https://twitter.com/beyondreasdoubt/status/1234585963478888450?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 2, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Someone just needs to take poor Uncle Joe home and let him rest. It's cruel to push this on someone with early onset dementia.