COVID-19

[Legacy93]

I made this point early on and was kind of laughed off,... hope it’s not true tho

It very well may be true that the lack of herd immunity would mean the number of cases would continue to increase over time, but extending the length of time over which the same number of people get the disease allows for more effective treatment of cases, less stress on the healthcare system, and more time for healthcare workers to adapt and improve treatment.

An increase in the infection count next week is not the same as an equivalent increase months from now because of preparedness, capacity, etc.

 

[Irish#1]

ND is now reporting a student is infected.

 

[IrishLion]

FWIW, the division of our company in China went back to work this week. They had been out since January. They seem to be a little ahead of where the rest of the world is at since they dealt with it first, but hopefully everyone else can follow a similar pattern. I’d like to think they were comfortable enough with the situation to do this without a vaccine, so maybe that can be replicated.

This is where a conspiracy theorist would mention something like "there's no extended power play of the rich over the poor and no giant payday for big pharma if we handle it as quickly and without a 'necessary' vaccine like China and South Korea, tho"

Couldn't be me, the guy who believes with greater certainty every day that this is actually an ancient strain of virus that was released into the air via global warming, thus its crazy transmission rate and spreading via seemingly unkown means at times.

 

[NDBoiler]

This is where a conspiracy theorist would mention something like "there's no extended power play of the rich over the poor and no giant payday for big pharma if we handle it as quickly and without a 'necessary' vaccine like China and South Korea, tho"

Couldn't be me, the guy who believes with greater certainty every day that this is actually an ancient strain of virus that was released into the air via global warming, thus its crazy transmission rate and spreading via seemingly unkown means at times.

Well, my company is in the pharmaceutical industry and makes an FDA approved test for COVID-19, so there’s that for the conspiracy theory

 

[Irish#1]

I'm good regardless but worry about the thousands of folks that rely on our paycheck every week. No hours = No money

You talking about your girls at the Brass Flamingo? lol

 

[Irish#1]

A surprising amount of office jobs can be worked remote, it's just corporate inertia that's kept them in an office. I'm glad to hear that you'll be able to keep working!

Hoping this opens some eyes in corporate in that regard.

The biggest key here is fear of productivity. Our owner is dead set against staff working from home. Claims there is no way to measure productivity, but his real concern is people goofing off and not putting in their 8 hours. I could supply him with reports that show how many orders a CSR handles per day, or how many invoices get processed by an A/P clerk but he doesn't want to hear it. Inbound and outbound call center staffs can easily work from home and be measured as the calls will be sent to them regularly so there is no time to catch up on Desperate Housewives.

 

[Henges24]

Whew, rough time to join the automotive industry, huh.


(I just took a job in the automotive industry.)

Auto industry worker here, too. Rumors the big 3 will be shutting down. Not sure of length but would assume it will be similar to Honda’s one week shutdown.

We have already canceled all overtime for the next two weeks at my location.

More info coming out tonight.

 

[Irish2155]

You talking about your girls at the Brass Flamingo? lol

For those looking for recommendations. Brad's Brass Flamingo on Indy's on the East Side is golden.

Do yourself a favor.

 

[ThePiombino]

The biggest key here is fear of productivity. Our owner is dead set against staff working from home. Claims there is no way to measure productivity, but his real concern is people goofing off and not putting in their 8 hours. I could supply him with reports that show how many orders a CSR handles per day, or how many invoices get processed by an A/P clerk but he doesn't want to hear it. Inbound and outbound call center staffs can easily work from home and be measured as the calls will be sent to them regularly so there is no time to catch up on Desperate Housewives.

Right on. There is no shortage of reputable studies that support the fact that WFHers are at least as, if not more, productive than office dwellers.

 

[NDdomer2]

FWIW, the division of our company in China went back to work this week. They had been out since January. They seem to be a little ahead of where the rest of the world is at since they dealt with it first, but hopefully everyone else can follow a similar pattern. I’d like to think they were comfortable enough with the situation to do this without a vaccine, so maybe that can be replicated.

south Korea started their basketball league after just 4 weeks of cracking down

 

[GATTACA!]

This is where a conspiracy theorist would mention something like "there's no extended power play of the rich over the poor and no giant payday for big pharma if we handle it as quickly and without a 'necessary' vaccine like China and South Korea, tho"

Couldn't be me, the guy who believes with greater certainty every day that this is actually an ancient strain of virus that was released into the air via global warming, thus its crazy transmission rate and spreading via seemingly unkown means at times.

They traced back patient zero to a person in Wohan. How did the virus make it all the way from the arctic to the middle of mainland China?

 

[Irish2155]

Auto industry worker here, too. Rumors the big 3 will be shutting down. Not sure of length but would assume it will be similar to Honda’s one week shutdown.

We have already cancelled all overtime for the next two weeks at my location.

More info coming out tonight.

Sorry to hear that, Henges. Please know that everyone is working together to help you folks...I've personally donated $100.

This is my worry zone too!! But I'm sure it'll all be settled soon enough.

 

[RDU Irish]

Read this thread:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">We can now read the Imperial College report on COVID-19 that led to the extreme measures we've seen in the US this week. Read it; it's terrifying. I'll offer a summary in this thread; please correct me if I've gotten it wrong.<a href="https://t.co/AwE2cHIbeJ">https://t.co/AwE2cHIbeJ</a></p>— Jeremy C. Young (@jeremycyoung) <a href="https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239975682643357696?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 17, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Very helpful in explaining why all these seemingly extreme measures have kicked in recently. The part that most surprised me was this:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">But here's the catch: if we EVER relax suppression before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before.</p>— Jeremy C. Young (@jeremycyoung) <a href="https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239979813147820033?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 17, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Makes sense, but if true, that means we won't be getting "back to normal" any time soon.

I'd bet a lot of money on the under. My bet is more die from the flu than C19 this year - flu has a pretty good head start. Half a million worldwide die from the flue annually - 30k to 70k in the US. The minute SARS peaked out (without a complete global shutdown) everyone scrapped their vaccines and are now picking them back up to work on this cousin. Data is not that scary here are people need to get a freaking grip. Isolate if you are old and/or underlying issues.

First thing I think Trump has really screwed up - nothing Obama did with Swine flu was wrong and the CDC et all were calling for the same chaos then.

And wash your hands you filthy animals - but only until this passes.

 

[IrishLion]

They traced back patient zero to a person in Wohan. How did the virus make it all the way from the arctic to the middle of mainland China?

Fish swimming in arctic water tainted by the newly-released virus becomes infected.

Fish eaten by other fish.

So on and so forth until a pattern of migration results in Asian-based wildlife being infected.

Patient zero consumes the wrong organism at the end of the food chain.

And now here we are.

I don't make the rules, I just write the dramatized script.

 

[BobbyMac]

I showed mama the GM deals Monday and she freaked. She wants a C8 Vette in the worst way. She's already built hers on their site.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I'd bet a lot of money on the under. My bet is more die from the flu than C19 this year - flu has a pretty good head start. Half a million worldwide die from the flue annually - 30k to 70k in the US. The minute SARS peaked out (without a complete global shutdown) everyone scrapped their vaccines and are now picking them back up to work on this cousin. Data is not that scary here are people need to get a freaking grip. Isolate if you are old and/or underlying issues.

"Everyone's crazy, except for me." You're a CFP, right? How is it that you're better able to interpret the data than basically every public health official in the world?

And what does that even mean, "I'd bet a lot of money on the under"? The Imperial College report described the outcomes of three simulations:

U.S. does nothing - 4 million dead over a 3 month span, including 11.5% of Americans over 70.
U.S. merely mitigates (which seems to be what you're advocating) - 2 million dead over a 3 month span.
U.S. suppresses (which is the direction we're trending) - Deaths peak at a few thousand 3 weeks from now, but there are significant restrictions on gathering and travel until a reliable vaccine is developed.

If we merely mitigate as you suggest, we're looking at 2 million dead Americans. If we institute a federally-enforced national lockdown, then the numbers look better than the flu (but only because of these extreme measures). Can't have it both ways.

Americans like commerce, and they hate authoritarian interruptions of their freedom. That so many corporations, universities, sports leagues, state governors, etc. voluntarily cancelled events despite the financial losses involved ought to tell you this is a lot more serious than you think.

From a recent NRO article:

Trump isn’t alone, of course. In fact, he is repeating claims from mainstream outlets that were au courant about a month ago. Back then, media outlets were claiming that popular fear of coronavirus was worse than the disease itself, and possibly driving anti-Asian animus. They repeated over and over that the seasonal flu kills more people each year, without mentioning that coronavirus may be 20 times as lethal and twice as transmissible, requiring heroic exertions to contain. Nor did they mention that the virus results in a greater rate of hospitalization.

 

[Irish2155]

I'd bet a lot of money on the under. My bet is more die from the flu than C19 this year - flu has a pretty good head start. Half a million worldwide die from the flue annually - 30k to 70k in the US. The minute SARS peaked out (without a complete global shutdown) everyone scrapped their vaccines and are now picking them back up to work on this cousin. Data is not that scary here are people need to get a freaking grip. Isolate if you are old and/or underlying issues.

First thing I think Trump has really screwed up - nothing Obama did with Swine flu was wrong and the CDC et all were calling for the same chaos then.

And wash your hands you filthy animals - but only until this passes.

Is this apples to apples? Because what I've learned about the Swine flu is nothing more than a bunch of people lost their life.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Here's another COVID-19 analysis, showing it's exponential spread.

 

[Bluto]

They traced back patient zero to a person in Wohan. How did the virus make it all the way from the arctic to the middle of mainland China?

It looks like North West China is at the same latitude as South East Alaska. Not saying it’s true but not a complete stretch.

 

[Irish#1]

They traced back patient zero to a person in Wohan. How did the virus make it all the way from the arctic to the middle of mainland China?

They were on an expedition in the arctic and found this neanderthal frozen in about 6ft of ice. Decided to chip him out and bring him back to study.

 

[Irish#1]

Here's another COVID-19 analysis, showing it's exponential spread.

You getting kicks out of sharing all of this doom and gloom?

 

[Irish#1]

Right on. There is no shortage of reputable studies that support the fact that WFHers are at least as, if not more, productive than office dwellers.

I guess the owner is having second thoughts. He just issued a memo that says if an employee has a need to work from home their manager needs to approve, then it has to be approved by the President of the company (son). I'm guessing our attorney has been in his ear.

 

[IrishLax]

Here's another COVID-19 analysis, showing it's exponential spread.

A little issue with showing raw cases is that Italy has 60 million people. The United States is 300+. So while the bars are following the same general trajectory, they're also day-to-day tracking at 20% of the infection rate Italy has... which is why Italy was a total meltdown but the US isn't yet.

 

[gkIrish]

A little issue with showing raw cases is that Italy has 60 million people. The United States is 300+. So while the bars are following the same general trajectory, they're also day-to-day tracking at 20% of the infection rate Italy has... which is why Italy was a total meltdown but the US isn't yet.

Italy's population density is 6 times higher than ours. Feel like no one talks about that.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

You getting kicks out of sharing all of this doom and gloom?

Not at all. Just amazed that there are still posters here arguing this is NBD, and wanting to ensure that everyone takes this seriously.

 

[MNIrishman]

Italy's population density is 6 times higher than ours. Feel like no one talks about that.

A lot of states have higher density. When you're talking about something like this, that matters. China doesn't benefit from Tibet and Inner Mongolia when talking about transmission between Beijing and Tianjin. The mountain west being empty doesn't help the east coast metroplex.

 

[greyhammer90]

Italy's population density is 6 times higher than ours. Feel like no one talks about that.

Yep. Not to suggest that this shouldn't be taken very seriously, but as a country our immense size is definitely a positive in this situation.

 

[Sea Turtle]

Not at all. Just amazed that there are still posters here arguing this is NBD, and wanting to ensure that everyone takes this seriously.

There is no doubt that a lot of people are going to get this. 86% will get it and not even know it. Kevin Durant feels fine.

 

[gkIrish]

A lot of states have higher density. When you're talking about something like this, that matters. China doesn't benefit from Tibet and Inner Mongolia when talking about transmission between Beijing and Tianjin. The mountain west being empty doesn't help the east coast metroplex.

I didn't say that to argue that the impact on the U.S. will be minimal. But there's reason to believe that outside of major cities it may not spread so easily, which will keep our percentages down.

 

[notredomer23]

Italy's population density is 6 times higher than ours. Feel like no one talks about that.

Not just that, but they all live on top of each other even in the more remote areas.