COVID-19

[tussin]

Been away for more than a year. Glad to see nothing's changed; some of you are still idiots. COVID-19 has been, literally, the only thing we've been working on for the last two weeks. Some of you are completely missing the point, the real danger, because you watch too much Fox News. Some of you are probably going to die; it's been nice "knowing" you. Most of you will be fine.

Great way to start a post and build consensus.

 

[Wild Bill]

Great way to start a post and build consensus.

He redeemed himself at the end.

Also, if you decide to shove something up your ass, wash your hands both before and after.

 

[ulukinatme]

Been away for more than a year. Glad to see nothing's changed; some of you are still idiots. COVID-19 has been, literally, the only thing we've been working on for the last two weeks. Some of you are completely missing the point, the real danger, because you watch too much Fox News. Some of you are probably going to die; it's been nice "knowing" you. Most of you will be fine.

Here's my advice besides washing your hands: stop trimming your nose hairs. You need to prevent the virus from getting to your mucous membranes, nose hairs are there for that reason. This whole "don't touch your face" thing is unrealistic. Stop scratching your eyes, don't dig your nose, and stop putting fingers in your mouth. Also, if you decide to shove something up your ass, wash your hands both before and after.

You make a lot of assumptions in your post. I have news for you though, people that watch Fox News and people that shove things up their ass are mutually exclusive. The later is definitely CNN territory.

 

[ACamp1900]

Been away for more than a year. Glad to see nothing's changed; some of you are still idiots. COVID-19 has been, literally, the only thing we've been working on for the last two weeks. Some of you are completely missing the point, the real danger, because you watch too much Fox News. Some of you are probably going to die; it's been nice "knowing" you. .

Welcome back,........

 

[Ndaccountant]

He redeemed himself at the end.

Brick posting in 3,2,1...

 

[irishnd31]

Also, if you decide to shove something up your ass, wash your hands both before and after.

Well, there go my Saturday night plans...

 

[ab2cmiller]

Well, there go my Saturday night plans...

Why? Cause your out of soap?

 

[irishnd31]

Why? Cause your out of soap?

Yes.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Yes.

I think in your case you wash up to your elbow just to be safe.

 

[zelezo vlk]

Looks like Austin might have its first case. It was good knowing you guys

 

[NDdomer2]

Flawed math is flawed

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

For sure Russia owns some of this, but how about Saudi for dropping it's prices a ton?

One country that for sure is getting pummeled by this whole situation (virus + oil) is Iran.
It's a recipe for all kinds of "bad".

As far as trying to drive US shale producers out of business, I saw a piece not long ago that suggest it would be very hard to do that due to a mix of reasons. Do you have any good articles you'd suggest on the topic?

Saudi Arabia wanted production cuts and called the emergency meeting. So their decision to flood the market (which works because they can produce at a cost of around $15 per barrel from their major field) is a reaction to Russia's decision to cease cooperating with OPEC. "Everyone" seems to agree that SA's response is a reaction to Russian policy that will revert if/when Russian policy changes.

So the question, from a futures standpoint, is whether Russia will come back to the table and agree to cuts or whether they understood the consequences and decided they wanted to trigger a price war.

 

[irishnd31]

I think in your case you wash up to your elbow just to be safe.

Of course. LOL

 

[GoldenToTheGrave]

Reports from Italy... https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1237142891077697538.html

This is what people need to know. It doesn't matter if your pneumonia is treatable if you can't get a respirator. China and Italy haven't shut down their economies for a month over a "bad cold", this is going to kill a lot of people and we aren't prepared.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Oahu could've left out the jabs and just posted the numbers. But what he's describing is happening in Italy and other countries. If he's even half correct, it's still a bad situation for the health care system.

He doesn't even describe the potential economic crisis that could come of this. Not everyone can afford a 14-day sickness/quarantine, not to mention the closings that are forcing people to stay home (many without pay).

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Some more perspective.

COVID-19 has been active in China for 3 months now. China, a densely populated home to 1.4 billion people, admitted to handling containment poorly for the initial month of the outbreak. China currently has around 3100 deaths from the virus with number of new cases per day drastically falling over the last several days.

 

[ab2cmiller]

Some more perspective.

COVID-19 has been active in China for 3 months now. China, a densely populated home to 1.4 billion people, admitted to handling containment poorly for the initial month of the outbreak. China currently has around 3100 deaths from the virus with number of new cases per day drastically falling over the last several days.

The problem with China is that they were not truthful at the start in regards to cases. I take any information from China with a grain of salt.

 

[ResLife Hero]

Some more perspective.

COVID-19 has been active in China for 3 months now. China, a densely populated home to 1.4 billion people, admitted to handling containment poorly for the initial month of the outbreak. China currently has around 3100 deaths from the virus with number of new cases per day drastically falling over the last several days.

Counterpoint: China is not a densely populated country across its geography (although the fact it didn't overwhelm Shanghai is an accomplishment) and has much lower rates of domestic travel. It also has a history of providing inaccurate information as it pertains to their health and labor practices, and they absolutely locked down the center of their outbreak using measures unimaginable and illegal in the US. Because they are an authoritarian regime, they were also able to swarm and rapidly scale up their healthcare infrastructure without having to go through the regulatory and approval processes that the US would need to follow.

Until the US bends the curve of new cases, we're at risk of overwhelming our healthcare system, and we don't have many options to increase this capacity in the short term. To me, that's the scariest potential outcome.

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171481/coronavirus-us-cases-quarantine-cancellation

 

[IrishLax]

I'm fairly they're about to start wholesale canceling spring sports at all levels.

 

[gkIrish]

For me once something becomes politicized, as COVID-19 has been, you have to immediately become extremely skeptical of any news on the subject. You have to really look at who is publishing a story, what the underlying information is, and stop just reading headlines. Applies to either "side".

I personally am not that worried, and have used this as an opportunity to buy up more shares in the market. That being said I have asked my 75 year old dad with respiratory issues to stay home and I bring him everything he needs. Don't be surprised if some sort of vaccine is produced in the near future. Researchers across the world are devoting their full attention to this...

 

[arrowryan]

I'm fairly they're about to start wholesale canceling spring sports at all levels.

Which would be quite foolish and dumb

 

[ACamp1900]

Which would be quite foolish and dumb

Dumb or not:

My wife works for a national university and all of the Deans constantly travel for this and that. We were actually going to tag along with her to San Antonio in April for her quarterly meeting,.. that was just cancelled. I think I'm going to be working from home a bunch fairly soon (meeting tomorrow to address this) and yes, I'm fully prepared for my daughter's baseball season to get wiped out if cases spring up in El Paso which I'm sure they will soon enough.

 

[zelezo vlk]

Don't cancel baseball! Well, maybe cancel the Cubs' season

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Don't cancel baseball! Well, maybe cancel the Cubs' season

They're way ahead of you.

 

[ab2cmiller]

Maybe explains why Mike Brey is only recruiting locally.

 

[ACamp1900]

They're way ahead of you.

We're all doing our part...

 

[NDPhilly]

I work in Midtown Manhattan and commute in from Jersey via Bus and Subway. Feel like a sitting duck. Over the last few days I know that Morgan Stanley, EY, BlackRock, and Brookfield all have had cases in Manhattan. I work at a national CRE brokerage but our management doesn't seem to have any plans currently to have us work from home. Feels irresponsible.

 

[ResLife Hero]

I work in Midtown Manhattan and commute in from Jersey via Bus and Subway. Feel like a sitting duck. Over the last few days I know that Morgan Stanley, EY, BlackRock, and Brookfield all have had cases in Manhattan. I work at a national CRE brokerage but our management doesn't seem to have any plans currently to have us work from home. Feels irresponsible.

A buddy of mine at Goldman said they're in a pinch because they legally can't conduct certain business off grounds. They're apparently planning an extensive system of remote centers and isolated groupings in the building for the event they have to make most of the workforce remote. Sounds like a logistical nightmare.

 

[Legacy]

The two Medical Centers on the eastside of Lake Washington are Evergreen and Overlake with bed capacity of 318 and 349 respectively. Overlake has 32 ICU beds and, since I have not found numbers for Evergreen's, it's reasonable to assume Evergreen's is the same - a total of 64 ICU beds for the eastside of the Seattle metro area. Not all are medical units. Their counts may include Trauma, Cardiac, possibly Burn or Neuro units.

Medical ICU bed with isolation rooms equipped with negative pressure usually make up 10% of ICU bed capacity. So let's say the two Medical Centers may have 6 or 7 isolation rooms with rooms with negative pressure HVAC systems to contain respiratory droplet infection spread.

Staff - these type of isolation rooms in ICUs have increased labor-intensive work, entering a room, putting on protective gear, transferring any new equipment/supplies/meds with a RN dedicated to that patient with perhaps another much less severe, but critical. The hospital has gone into emergency mode, transferring patients to lower level of care or to other hospitals. These critical care nursing positions require specialized training and certifications. Hospitals may contract with agencies for critical care nurses if they cannot fill the positions locally. Prior to the epidemic Evergreen was advertising for more critical care nurses.

To complicate things, hospital staff may have been sent home to self-quarantine for two weeks due to exposure without appropriate protective equipment to coronavirus patients previously, increasing shortages. Reports are that hospitals do not have enough of the n95 respirator masks that protect against the small particles of viruses. In past outbreaks like SARS or in other areas with COVID-19, many HC professionals from EMTs to physicians have sickened and some have died.

As Oahu noted, this has been a bad flu season, filling beds in a hospital already. Existing patients in both hospitals may have been transferred to other Seattle area hospitals to open up beds and undoubtedly Evergreen and Overlake diverting ambulances from their ERs to other hospitals.

With the eastside hospitals transferring patients to other area hospitals, those too may be having significant increases in occupied beds and undergoing staffing shortages. HC workers with pre-existing pulmonary conditions like asthma would have to take extra precautions to reduce their exposure - or stay at home.

It probably goes without saying that as ICUs fill up as well as hospitals reaching their bed capacity, patients who are admitted remain in the ER.

The cities that the two medical centers - Overlake in Bellevue and Evergreen in Kirkland - have a total population of 220,000. That does not include any of the other cities on that side.

 

[BeauBenken]

I work as a teacher in rural East Central Indiana. We are having to start planning for "what if?" scenarios.

Local nursing homes are no longer accepting visitations from clubs and other organizations.

My fiance works in the ICU at a hospital between Indianapolis and here. Should she begin to get patients with COVID-19, I will not go to work. I see that as a responsibility. I am lucky enough though where I feel like I am in a position as a teacher to make the demand to not lose my sick days though.

Others throughout the country may have to use all their sick days. Others may not have sick days to use. What then?

I did speak with my fiance this morning though about any kind of preparation they have in place should they get a patient with COVID-19. They would be quarantined to a special room with its own filtration. In a city with over 50,000 people and only one other hospital, they only have two of these rooms. I cannot imagine other hospitals in the area being much different. Her floor is also severely understaffed at the moment. She is already working 60+ hour weeks.

Oahu may be crude in his post, but he is likely right in that hospitals will not be properly equipped to handle this. The CDC specifically describes this potential:

More cases of COVID-19 are likely to be identified in the United States in the coming days, including more instances of community spread. It’s likely that at some point, widespread transmission of COVID-19 in the United States will occur. Widespread transmission of COVID-19 would translate into large numbers of people needing medical care at the same time. Schools, childcare centers, and workplaces, may experience more absenteeism. Mass gatherings may be sparsely attended or postponed. Public health and healthcare systems may become overloaded, with elevated rates of hospitalizations and deaths. Other critical infrastructure, such as law enforcement, emergency medical services, and sectors of the transportation industry may also be affected. Healthcare providers and hospitals may be overwhelmed. At this time, there is no vaccine to protect against COVID-19 and no medications approved to treat it. Nonpharmaceutical interventions would be the most important response strategy.