I don't think it's that simple. I think they have a good idea on who will or won't be transfer candidates. They also know which 5th years are vital to the success of the program. As of now, I'd be shocked if they sign over 22 guys. The only disclaimer is that we may hit on some very big prospects on signing days, which the coaches would likely accept and make room for (but that'd be the exception, not the rule).
Tell me which of these players you push out for a highly rated prospect:
- Dex
- Bilal
- Wimbush
- Dew-Treadway
- Crawford
- Ruhland
- Boykin
- Finke
- Coleman
I'd say, as of now, in order:
Dew-Treadway, Finke, Coleman, Ruhland, Bilal (if actually starter this year), Crawford, Boykin, Dex, Wimbush
But the ordering is very fluid, some of these players could rack up big minutes this year.
Now even with expected average attrition, there might be 5ish transfers and 3-5 5th years who are 'let go'. That still only puts you at 21.
Throw in a medical and you are at 22.
Right now you are absolutely right in the fact that ND doesn't have a lot of room, but the room always has a way of figuring itself out.
QB - one of the QB's will leave if Mertz come in. I'd guess they ask Avery Davis for permanent position change and maybe Book is tired or sitting or Wimbush does a 5th year somewhere else because he has a bad season. Some way some how, ND won't have 5 QB's on scholarship in 2019.
RB -
someone will get in trouble, just playing the odds
TE - Alize Mack is either in the NFL (had a great season), gets in trouble (he has a record), or has a bad season in which maybe the staff wants to move Kmet ahead and he leaves. Also, maybe Brock Wright's transition from H-Back to TE full time doesn't go as planned. There are 6 TE's in the room this year and maybe that is too much for everyone to be happy
WR - probablty a make or break year for Javon McKinley, Chris Finke I think could get passed up by some freshman who the staff like more (I love Finke but his upside is limited).
OL - If Ruhland doesn't get his starting spot I think he can start for a bunch of FBS teams so he maybe takes a 5th somewhere else. Also, between Ruhland, Kraemer, Eichenberg, Hainsey, Banks, Gibbons, and Lugg, that's a lot of guys who've been in the program for 3 years or more and not all of them can play...
DL - If Dew-Treadway gets passed up he's out. Darnell Ewell will hopefully have made his move by 2019 but if not, he could look for greener pastures. Between Hayes, Okwara, Kareem, Jamir Jones, and Ogundeji that's a lot of 4th year dudes for two spots with a ton of talent coming in behind them. Somebody could get upset with playing time.
LB - David Adams & Drew White hopefully will develop and figure out their injuries to become players. I'd put them as transfer candidates if the vaunted freshman class overtakes them. If Bilal is good then he'll stay, if he loses his spot then he could do a 5th year somewhere else.
DB - Donte Vaughn, Devin Studstill, Jalen Elliott (if he gets passed up), and Nick Coleman (if he gets passed up) could all be departures with how their positions are shaping up. ND will probably follow up a 7 man DB class with a 4 man DB class and that's going to inevitably lead to some attrition.
Obviously, this is not a projection of what I want to happen. I hope a guy like David Adams recovers and becomes the 4 star LBer that we'd love to see at ND, but I'm also pointing out with these position groups that ND has put a lot of pressure on these kids to perform and if they don't then they'll be looking for a new school.
