2018 Fall Camp Thread

[FightingIrishLover7]

Because raising your completion percentage 10% (or a 20% increase) is not insignificant. It is infrequent that you see that large of a jump in one year especially for someone who played most of the PY. I think that 55% is more realistic number.

You also know that BW is not a "pro-style" QB and to accurately compare "actual production" you have to factor in plays made with his legs.

 

[snoopdog]

Maybe they are only releasing the "bad BW passes" to make shitagain believe he can't hit a bull in the ass with a snow shovel. Maybe not.

You maybe joking, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there was some truth to it. They keep down talking Claypool, but it appears he is unstoppable at times in practice, so who knows what to believe

 

[dad4aa]

Because raising your completion percentage 10% (or a 20% increase) is not insignificant. It is infrequent that you see that large of a jump in one year especially for someone who played most of the PY. I think that 55% is more realistic number.

Don’t believe it unless you have done facts to back it up. Increasing 10% when you’re at 70%+ would be tough. To increase 10% when your starting under 50% seems very doable.

 

[pkt77242]

You also know that BW is not a "pro-style" QB and to accurately compare "actual production" you have to factor in plays made with his legs.

Really? Do tell.

1. Of course His running figures into his total production.
2. We still need him to be a competent. QB. Missing open receivers is a quick way to kill drives and will cost us against good teams.
3. Some teams will be able to limit his running, if he can’t be a competent QB those games will turn into L’s.


I think that BW probably should be starting but I have seen multiple people now talk about him raising his completion % to 60%+ and that is very unlikely.

As I have said it is much more realistic that he finishes around 55% but even that is a pretty large increase. A key to not being disappointed is to start with realistic expectations.

 

[arahop]

Taking either side of the BW debate isn't crazy. There's some really good, and some really bad stats from last year. There's reports that he's improved over the off season, and reports/video that he's still struggling. He doesn't have to be a 60+% passer to be good, but he does have to be better than he was last year. Teams figured us out the second half of last season, and you can safely assume what their D's will do until BW can keep them semi honest with his arm.

For me, there's a lot of practice time left to go. I'm sitting on the fence hoping he can rock and roll. I won't be shocked however if things are rocky and there's multiple QBs playing this year.

QB Rating rank of 98th
Raw QBR of 46th
Adjusted QBR Rank of 18th
Pass EPA of 93rd
Run EPA of 11th
Sack EPA or 65th
Total EPA of 56th
Sacks - 36 most sacked
INTs - 87th most INT'd
Rushing - 90th overall / 11th among QBs
Total TD rank of 26 (57th passing)
First Downs rank of 51st
3rd Down Conversion rank of 31st
Total Offense 28th (haven't had a top 25 in BK's time)
Games with QBR below 60 - UGA, Miami, Stanford, LSU

Good research! And I know you are on the wait and see approach with Wimbush, and that is logical.

Total QBR 18th for Wimbush last year

For comparison
2017 Brandon Wimbush 76.2 (18th in the Country)
Comp% Yards AVG TD INT
2017 Wimbush 76.2 (18th) 49.5 1870 6.8 16 6
2016 Kizer 69.5 (39th) 58.7 2925 8.1 26 9
2015 Kizer 79.1 (12th) 63. 2884 8.6 21 10
2014 Golson 71.4 (26th) 60 3445 8.0 29 14
2013 Rees 76.5 (26th) 54.1 3257 7.9 27 13

I'm astonished ( not saying you Irish YJ.) dismissing his upside. Does anyone honestly think that Ian Book gives this team a better chance at the playoffs? The answer is absolutely not. BW has to workout some accuracy issues I agree. We saw some bad misses in the flats in this recent practice video, how do we know he wasn't trying something new with his release or footwork. I think it's a possibility that he does have the yips. If he does BK will drop the passes to the flats and screens out of the playbook. Simple as that. Even in taking those plays away, BW is the QB that will lead this team. Only way that he is replaced is if his "yips" start popping up with throws down the field. He has one year under his belt and a lot of room for improvement. If he plays free and loose he will make a lot of Irish fans happy. If this defense is as good as I think it can be, and BW improves slightly, we will be in our 1st playoff.

 

[ab2cmiller]

You maybe joking, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there was some truth to it. They keep down talking Claypool, but it appears he is unstoppable at times in practice, so who knows what to believe

I'm sure there will be at least a couple of plays put into the game plan by Chip Long which takes advantage of the scouting report that Wimbush stares down his primary option. Hopefully they pick the right spots to use them and can take advantage of a Michigan defense which may come out super aggressive.

 

[ND88]

I’m not a Kelly hater, but his development of quarterbacks and preparing them to handle the moment is still the big question. They tend to perform much like he coaches, highs and lows, generally grading out average to slightly above in the end. They catch steam and gather bandwagoners and believers, but then overheat and faze out in the biggest moments.

Nearly everyone who wasn’t obsessing over QB mechanics or playing negative nancy was on BW’s nuts before the Miami game. Brandon was throwing himself all over the field before that game. He played balls-to-the-wall against Wake F, and earned the respect. But as soon as Kelly put aside his brash, pissy mood in exchange for the sharp-suit slick playoff politics that was the Miami presser, it’s like you could sense impending doom. Brandon was prognosticating victory, and then was quickly and brutally humbled. He wasn’t the same after that. And neither were the fans. Pretty soon, Book was the only QB who wasn’t a headcase.

I’m no football expert. All I know is I like Kelly when he’s got his sleeves rolled up and embraces being an asshole. Leave the pinsuits and the PC attitude in the closet. Leave the prognosticating to the pundits. Play angry like you were 4-8. Play like you’re hated and resented. Then just win. If Kelly and Brandon can reunite under this force, it just might happen.

 

[greyhammer90]

You maybe joking, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there was some truth to it. They keep down talking Claypool, but it appears he is unstoppable at times in practice, so who knows what to believe

I forgot that this year we get to enjoy the non-existent scouting report nonsense the week before the game.

 

[TomHaverford]

Josh Allen completed 56% of his passes last year and went #7 overall.

Josh Allen sucks at football and the Bills front office sucks at drafting.

 

[Irish YJ]

Good research! And I know you are on the wait and see approach with Wimbush, and that is logical.

Total QBR 18th for Wimbush last year

For comparison
2017 Brandon Wimbush 76.2 (18th in the Country)
Comp% Yards AVG TD INT
2017 Wimbush 76.2 (18th) 49.5 1870 6.8 16 6
2016 Kizer 69.5 (39th) 58.7 2925 8.1 26 9
2015 Kizer 79.1 (12th) 63. 2884 8.6 21 10
2014 Golson 71.4 (26th) 60 3445 8.0 29 14
2013 Rees 76.5 (26th) 54.1 3257 7.9 27 13

I'm astonished ( not saying you Irish YJ.) dismissing his upside. Does anyone honestly think that Ian Book gives this team a better chance at the playoffs? The answer is absolutely not. BW has to workout some accuracy issues I agree. We saw some bad misses in the flats in this recent practice video, how do we know he wasn't trying something new with his release or footwork. I think it's a possibility that he does have the yips. If he does BK will drop the passes to the flats and screens out of the playbook. Simple as that. Even in taking those plays away, BW is the QB that will lead this team. Only way that he is replaced is if his "yips" start popping up with throws down the field. He has one year under his belt and a lot of room for improvement. If he plays free and loose he will make a lot of Irish fans happy. If this defense is as good as I think it can be, and BW improves slightly, we will be in our 1st playoff.

I think the issue is, as with all dual threat QBs, if they are aren't much of a threat to pass, it's pretty easy to shut the running down. If your QB Rating (121) is 98th like BWs was last season, teams will single cover and load the box / crowd the LOS all day. He's got to improve in that area. If he can get to top 50 (~140), people will have to respect his arm, which in turn will make his legs more of a threat. Just for comparison, top 25 guys are 150-199. So not saying he needs to be the best passer, just not one of the worst in the bottom third.

 

[Wild Bill]

Really? Do tell.

1. Of course His running figures into his total production.
2. We still need him to be a competent. QB. Missing open receivers is a quick way to kill drives and will cost us against good teams.
3. Some teams will be able to limit his running, if he can’t be a competent QB those games will turn into L’s.


I think that BW probably should be starting but I have seen multiple people now talk about him raising his completion % to 60%+ and that is very unlikely.

As I have said it is much more realistic that he finishes around 55% but even that is a pretty large increase. A key to not being disappointed is to start with realistic expectations.

Quinn and Clausen improved their completion percentage by 10% plus during their career. Quinn did it year over year once - he went from 47% to 54% to 64% from frosh to soph to jr year. Golson was close to a 10% increase from his first year to his last at FSU. Tommy went backwards. But I'll be damned if he wasn't the best audible caller in the nation by his senior year.

Not saying you're wrong. It's a hard jump but it's possible.

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

Waiting on Koon's source's practice report from today.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Stats for each starting QB Kelly has coached at ND:

Crist
Rees
Golson
Kizer
Wimbush

Crist played so few snaps in 2011 before getting benched that we can't say much about his year-over-year improvement, but it wasn't headed in a good direction. Rees' TD/ INT ratio and YPA improved, but his completion % dropped, keeping his QBR pretty constant. Golson improved a bit between 2012 and 2014, but not dramatically. And while Kizer improved his TD/ INT ratio, he otherwise regressed in every other metric as a 2nd year starter.

Point being, I don't see any basis for expecting the sort of improvement many of you are apparently expecting from Wimbush this year. His legs might keep him at starter if the OL gels quickly and he has an explosive RB to help carry the load. But I fully expect to see a lot of Book at some point this season; which will mean a much less explosive offense, and that our defense will have to shoulder a lot more of the burden.

 

[Irish YJ]

Stats for each starting QB Kelly has coached at ND:

Crist
Rees
Golson
Kizer
Wimbush

Crist played so few snaps in 2011 before getting benched that we can't say much about his year-over-year improvement, but it wasn't headed in a good direction. Rees' TD/ INT ratio and YPA improved, but his completion % dropped, keeping his QBR pretty constant. Golson improved a bit between 2012 and 2014, but not dramatically. And while Kizer improved his TD/ INT ratio, he otherwise regressed in every other metric as a 2nd year starter.

Point being, I don't see any basis for expecting the sort of improvement many of you are apparently expecting from Wimbush this year. His legs might keep him at starter if the OL gels quickly and he has an explosive RB to help carry the load. But I fully expect to see a lot of Book at some point this season; which will mean a much less explosive offense, and that our defense will have to shoulder a lot more of the burden.

Not sure I agree that Book equates to a dud offense. He was 14/19 for 164 in a half vs a top 25 D. Small sample I know, but by most reports, he's able to move the O pretty well. The only thing explosive about us last year for the most part was the rushing for the first 2/3 of the season. We were dud-like the last 3.5 games.

I think Book is a better version of Rees. Better passer, better runner. Not BW-like good at running, but he did run for almost 800 yards and 12 TDs (while throwing 30 TDs / 5 INTs) his senior year. I know it's HS, it does show he can/will/did run a decent amount.

I'd prefer BW get up to at least the mid 50s in completion %. I think that's enough to keep Ds honest and compete every game vs the top 25.

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

Per Kelly's twitter:
Today's MVPs

Offense: Weishar
Defense: Crawford
ST: Nicco

 

[NDdomer2]

Not sure I agree that Book equates to a dud offense. He was 14/19 for 164 in a half vs a top 25 D. Small sample I know, but by most reports, he's able to move the O pretty well. The only thing explosive about us last year for the most part was the rushing for the first 2/3 of the season. We were dud-like the last 3.5 games.

I think Book is a better version of Rees. Better passer, better runner. Not BW-like good at running, but he did run for almost 800 yards and 12 TDs (while throwing 30 TDs / 5 INTs) his senior year. I know it's HS, it does show he can/will/did run a decent amount.

I'd prefer BW get up to at least the mid 50s in completion %. I think that's enough to keep Ds honest and compete every game vs the top 25.

He was also 17/31 for 146, 1 td and 2 int vs. the 98th ranked total D

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Not sure I agree that Book equates to a dud offense.

I didn't say we'd field a "dud offense" with Book under center. And I agree that he could be better than Rees. But he's still the same sort of QB-- a distributor. He's not going to be able to put the team on his back and win many games on his own; nor would his skillset force opposing D Coordinators out of their comfort zones.

And given all the uncertainty we're facing on offense--rebuilding the OL, very little experience at RB and WR, etc.-- we'd likely have the same offensive profile as those teams Rees led. Good enough to win 8-9 games, but rarely good enough to beat an elite defense.

 

[Irish YJ]

He was also 17/31 for 146, 1 td and 2 int vs. the 98th ranked total D

I remember that game well. Road game and first start. Also IIRC BW was a day to day call and it was a last minute decision to start Book. Only one of the INTs was bad. On the first, I believe he threw to the TE, who did not jump at all, and it went over his head straight to the S. The other, he threw deep down the sideline. The receiver got tied up with the CB and the S came over the top. Wasn't pretty, but also not horrible given the situation.

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Execute at the highest level. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GoIrish?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#GoIrish</a> ☘️ <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/IrishWearGreen?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#IrishWearGreen</a> <a href="https://t.co/PnnYplJbEA">pic.twitter.com/PnnYplJbEA</a></p>— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) <a href="https://twitter.com/NDFootball/status/1029524823746043904?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 15, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Ugh oh. Wobbly Brandon pass.

 

[Irish YJ]

I didn't say we'd field a "dude offense" with Book under center. And I agree that he could be better than Rees. But he's still the same sort of QB-- a distributor. He's not going to be able to put the team on his back and win many games on his own; nor would his skillset force opposing D Coordinators out of their comfort zones.

And given all the uncertainty we're facing on offense--rebuilding the OL, very little experience at RB and WR, etc.-- we'd likely have the same offensive profile as those teams Rees led. Good enough to win 8-9 games, but rarely good enough to beat an elite defense.

I don't think Rees had anything close to the rushing numbers Book had in HS.
Agree that DCs won't quake in their boots because of Book, but not sure anyone will quake over BW until he can prove he can pass. While I think you are likely correct that Book can't put a team on his back, he could surprise. He certainly did vs LSU.

 

[GrangerIrish24]

Does anything else go on at fall camp or is it just Wimbush and Book chucking footballs?

 

[T-Boone]

Does anything else go on at fall camp or is it just Wimbush and Book chucking footballs?

Haha, I think the obsession is if Wimbush throws okay we probably make the playoffs.

 

[dad4aa]

Does anything else go on at fall camp or is it just Wimbush and Book chucking footballs?

Great question. Reps.

 

[ND88]

Does anything else go on at fall camp or is it just Wimbush and Book chucking footballs?

Not really.

Question though:

Couldn’t you strategically plan a season around two QBs that could actually work for everyone’s benefit?

I realize these are young atheletes we are talking about, but football is football. The physicality of it at the collegiate level has to fatigue the mental game.

In order to keep the legs fresh and the mind sharp, couldn’t you reserve Wimbush for games that would be more advantageous for a dual quarterback whose primary strength is running.

For the games that require more of the pass and are less daunting competitively, play Book.

How unorthodox of a strategy would this be? I know this is much like QB by committee, which goes against the general consensus for one guy at the helm. I don’t mean flip flopping throughout the game, plugging in QBs here and there. This would be more of a game by game rotation with BW seeing the majority of the games on the schedule with a few should-wins where Book can provide some reprieve.

Just wondering... I know this would never happen.

 

[Henges24]

Not really.

Question though:

Couldn’t you strategically plan a season around two QBs that could actually work for everyone’s benefit?

I realize these are young atheletes we are talking about, but football is football. The physicality of it at the collegiate level has to fatigue the mental game.

In order to keep the legs fresh and the mind sharp, couldn’t you reserve Wimbush for games that would be more advantageous for a dual quarterback whose primary strength is running.

For the games that require more of the pass and are less daunting competitively, play Book.

How unorthodox of a strategy would this be? I know this is much like QB by committee, which goes against the general consensus for one guy at the helm. I don’t mean flip flopping throughout the game, plugging in QBs here and there. This would be more of a game by game rotation with BW seeing the majority of the games on the schedule with a few should-wins where Book can provide some reprieve.

Just wondering... I know this would never happen.

Football is about repetition not trial and error. It's much easier for the other players to groove around 1 QB than it is 2. The OL, for instance, adapts to the QB cadence to get off the ball quicker. There are 100 other reasons why a QB by committee does not work - Tebow and Leak say hello.

 

[NorthDakota]

Haha, I think the obsession is if Wimbush throws okay we probably make the playoffs.

Pretty much. Literally enough to keep teams honest is all i'm asking for.

 

[TheSunIsRising]

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Wimbush's first throw at 0:24..yikes!

The video was from Saturday practice though, and that throw has already been beaten to death

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

folks on II think Jones looked better in Spring 2017 than he does now. They also said he's lost weight possibly 10-12 lb's or so but his 40 time is still pretty pedestrian.

This is what I've been gathering from reports, both the media and coaches. Sounds like TJ Jr. is locked in but maybe lacking some things that Armstrong and Davis can provide.

I don't think Rees had anything close to the rushing numbers Book had in HS.
Agree that DCs won't quake in their boots because of Book, but not sure anyone will quake over BW until he can prove he can pass. While I think you are likely correct that Book can't put a team on his back, he could surprise. He certainly did vs LSU.

We're comparing two incomplete QBs, that's why it's difficult. Wimbush really needs a 7-10% increase in completion pcg and we're off to the races. Book just needs to be able to hit the deep ball and we're poised to win games with the talent we have.

I don't know if we can expect either of those things so I trust the coaches to make the most of the situation. Hopefully Brandon says, "fvck all the haters" and just starts playing with passionate intensity. Same with Book.

I hope they don't give two shits about what they hear from the fanbase. We're clueless assholes who project a ton on these kids. I just want them to take all of the teaching, try to stay focused and have fun.

 

[Wild Bill]

This is what I've been gathering from reports, both the media and coaches. Sounds like TJ Jr. is locked in but maybe lacking some things that Armstrong and Davis can provide.



We're comparing two incomplete QBs, that's why it's difficult. Wimbush really needs a 7-10% increase in completion pcg and we're off to the races. Book just needs to be able to hit the deep ball and we're poised to win games with the talent we have.

I don't know if we can expect either of those things so I trust the coaches to make the most of the situation. Hopefully Brandon says, "fvck all the haters" and just starts playing with passionate intensity. Same with Book.

I hope they don't give two shits about what they hear from the fanbase. We're clueless assholes who project a ton on these kids. I just want them to take all of the teaching, try to stay focused and have fun.

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[RDU Irish]

Has anyone looked at RB production with the respective QBs under center? Seems to me BW takes carries away from the RBs so wouldn't it also be fair to look at total rushing production to see if Book is opening up the run game? All this credit is given to BW for adjusting his QBR for his rushing stats but what if total rushing production is just as good under Book?