2018 CFP Rankings

[IrishLion]

Clemson is undefeated and has been more impressive than we've been. Michigan is ranked behind us. The Pac-12 is likely out of the playoff, as is the Big 12. We have nothing to complain about. None of those teams are being given undue preference over ND.

scUM probably WILL get undue preference when they beat Northwestern for the B1G championship, as it's a thirteenth data point against a decent team..... even though they had already beat them once, and even though ND beat them as well.

 

[wizards8507]

scUM probably WILL get undue preference when they beat Northwestern for the B1G championship, as it's a thirteenth data point against a decent team..... even though they had already beat them once, and even though ND beat them as well.

12-0 is still better than 12-1. I think you're probably right if it was 11-1 versus 12-1, even with our head to head win, and I honestly don't have a problem with it. Michigan has been more impressive than ND.

 

[arrowryan]

Who gets in if Notre Dame wins out, UM loses to either OSU or NW, UGA loses to Bama, and WV/OU cancel each other out due to the Big 12's lazy way over coming up with a Big 12 Championship?

The #4 spot would be down to WSU, UCF, and LSU. WSU, if they win out, would have my vote. Does the committee finally give into UCF or do they stand by the importance of SOS? Does LSU become the first 2 loss team to get into the playoff?

I think the scenario I listed above has a better chance of happening than Alabama losing to UGA. UGA beating Bama would screw everything up because then I don't think Bama should get in.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

12-0 is still better than 12-1. I think you're probably right if it was 11-1 versus 12-1, even with our head to head win, and I honestly don't have a problem with it. Michigan has been more impressive than ND.

I didn't think Michigan had been more impressive but then I looked up S&P+, Sagarin, ESPN, etc.

Here's where I grabbed my info:
Team Rankings

Not sure about their model, I couldn't find a description on how they calculate it. If it's proprietary, it loses value. Maybe someone else can uncover it.

SBNATION for S&P+ rankings

There may be a more official location for S&P+

ESPN Power Rankings

ESPN power rankings

Sagarin model

Sagarin model predicts a 10 pt spread in our favor against Syracuse. I don't think we can take the additional 2 pts for a home game since it's a neutral site. I assume we'll still have a dominant group of fans there but they won't be able to affect the game due to the stadium (or that would be my guess).

If it came down to 11-1 and 12-1, I do think Michigan would jump ND for two reasons. Statistically, they have the better resume and their loss came extremely early, whereas a 1 loss ND would have to be in the last two games of the season.

I don't think we could call that committee bias. Head to head matters but it can't trump all and Michigan would have more in their corner.

But Muck Fichigan, because we ain't losin a game.

 

[stlnd01]

Who gets in if Notre Dame wins out, UM loses to either OSU or NW, UGA loses to Bama, and WV/OU cancel each other out due to the Big 12's lazy way over coming up with a Big 12 Championship?

The #4 spot would be down to WSU, UCF, and LSU. WSU, if they win out, would have my vote. Does the committee finally give into UCF or do they stand by the importance of SOS? Does LSU become the first 2 loss team to get into the playoff?

I think the scenario I listed above has a better chance of happening than Alabama losing to UGA. UGA beating Bama would screw everything up because then I don't think Bama should get in.

In that scenario a one-loss Ohio State that just beat Michigan and won the Big 10 would and probably should get in. If OSU then lost to Northwestern? I dunno. I guess Wazzu, though they’ve beaten nobody and I think Georgia would wipe the floor with them.

 

[arrowryan]

In that scenario a one-loss Ohio State that just beat Michigan and won the Big 10 would and probably should get in. If OSU then lost to Northwestern? I dunno. I guess Wazzu, though they’ve beaten nobody and I think Georgia would wipe the floor with them.

I don't think OSU would get in because of that terrible Purdue loss. The bad Iowa beatdown last year kept them out of the playoff, the Purdue beatdown is the same thing.

 

[IrishFanJMercy]

I honestly think if we were to slip up a close loss to USC would get us in because we would have wins against 3 top 25 teams. Maybe 4 if Pitt can sneek in sometime soon.

 

[IrishFanJMercy]

I don't see anyway we lose to USC thought their players are throwing in the towel, how in the hell do you lose 15-14 to CAL of all teams? They barely could move the ball in the second half against CAL.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

12-0 is still better than 12-1. I think you're probably right if it was 11-1 versus 12-1, even with our head to head win, and I honestly don't have a problem with it. Michigan has been more impressive than ND.

Sed contra...

Elite Win Margin ratings are based on FEI ratings, but instead of measuring efficiency against schedule, Elite Win Margin measures achievement against schedule, a distinction closely aligned with the priorities of the College Football Playoff selection committee (at least as far as the Power 5 teams are concerned). Teams are ranked according to wins (EWM) greater than or less than an elite team (two standard deviations better than average) would be expected to achieve against the given team's schedule to date (EL). The current College Football Playoff selection committee ranking (CFP) for each team is provided for reference.

Rk Team Rec EWM
1 UA 10-0 .76
2 ND 10-0 .69
3 CU 9-0 .48
4 UCF 8-0 .21
5 UGA 8-1 .19
6 UM 9-1 .15

 

[wizards8507]

Sed contra...

I thought you were a big F/+ guy.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I thought you were a big F/+ guy.

I like all of FO's stuff, but Fremeau's models are my favorite (he's an ND grad/ current employee).

 

[drayer54]

Bama can totally dump a game and still be in. Not sure how anyone would think otherwise. They've manhandled everyone they have played.

We all know that Tua's knee is the exhaust port in the death star, but they still have a 5 star QB behind him and a defense that nobody is running on.So....

 

[condoms SUCk]

Here is what I would like to see happen.
Bama- close L to UGA
Clemson- win out
ND- win out
UM win out

My rankings would be
1) Clemson
2) ND
3) UGA
4) Bama
5 UM -

1) Clemson vs 4) Bama in Miami
2) ND vs 3) UGA in Dallas (I just moved here)

So Clemson and Bama get to beat each other up in the semi's while we battle with UGA

I would like our chances in a Clemson/ND NCG

and Michigan would be so close to a playoff birth...yet so far away hahahaha, fvck those motherfvckers

 

[Dizzyphil]

Here is what I would like to see happen.
Bama- close L to UGA
Clemson- win out
ND- win out
UM win out

My rankings would be
1) Clemson
2) ND
3) UGA
4) Bama
5 UM -

1) Clemson vs 4) Bama in Miami
2) ND vs 3) UGA in Dallas (I just moved here)

So Clemson and Bama get to beat each other up in the semi's while we battle with UGA

I would like our chances in a Clemson/ND NCG

and Michigan would be so close to a playoff birth...yet so far away hahahaha, fvck those motherfvckers

With your scenario - wouldn't put it past the committee to do this


1. Clemson
2. GA
3. Bama
4. ND

 

[Whiskeyjack]

With your scenario - wouldn't put it past the committee to do this

1. Clemson
2. GA
3. Bama
4. ND

As long as we're in the playoff and dodging 'Bama in the 1st round, I don't really care where we're ranked.

 

[ickythump1225]

As long as we're in the playoff and dodging 'Bama in the 1st round, I don't really care where we're ranked.

Exactly.

 

[stlnd01]

I don't think OSU would get in because of that terrible Purdue loss. The bad Iowa beatdown last year kept them out of the playoff, the Purdue beatdown is the same thing.

I think losing to Oklahoma AND Iowa is what kept them out of the playoffs last year.
If it’s a one-loss Big Ten champ OSU up against a one-loss PAC-12 champ Washington State, I tend to think the committee will ultimately go with the prestige program with the bigger wins (Michigan, Penn State).

 

[wizards8507]

As long as we're in the playoff and dodging 'Bama in the 1st round, I don't really care where we're ranked.

Right. I have a theory that Clemson is secretly mediocre.

 

[condoms SUCk]

With your scenario - wouldn't put it past the committee to do this


1. Clemson
2. GA
3. Bama
4. ND

It was more what I wish/would like to have happen, no so much what the committee would do.

I just want ND to play in Dallas and against someone other than Bama.

 

[condoms SUCk]

Right. I have a theory that Clemson is secretly mediocre.

yup, #metoo.

 

[Ndaccountant]

After seeing this, I am all in for WSU to win it all if ND does not.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The new piece of art work in <a href="https://twitter.com/Coach_Leach?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Coach_Leach</a> office has made it nearly impossible to have a serious meeting &#55357;&#56384;&#55357;&#56834;. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GoCougs?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#GoCougs</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/JoinTheHunt?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#JoinTheHunt</a> <a href="https://t.co/Fvyx2YeIjK">pic.twitter.com/Fvyx2YeIjK</a></p>— Pat Chun (@pat_chun) <a href="https://twitter.com/pat_chun/status/1062496050089345024?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 14, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Henges24]

Right. I have a theory that Clemson is secretly mediocre.

Agreed Wiz. Especially with a freshman QB who are always vulnerable in some way.

 

[greyhammer90]

Right. I have a theory that Clemson is secretly mediocre.

Yuuuuuuuuuuuuuup.

 

[BobbyMac]

Here's my silly scenario request.

Michigan loses to Indiana & OSU
OSU loses to Northwestern
Bama loses to <strike>The Citadel</strike> Auburn and UGA
Clemson loses to SCaro and Pitt
Oklahoma loses to WVU twice

CFP is:

1. ND
2. UGA
3. WVU
4. Wazzu

ND beats Wazzu 44-28

WVU beats UGA 54-53 in 4OT

ND beats WVU 34-21... again.

 

[drayer54]

Am I the only one praying we finish top 4, but not aligned with Bama in the first game?

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

Am I the only one praying we finish top 4, but not aligned with Bama in the first game?

No, you are joined by everyone in that prayer/hope.

 

[ACamp1900]

Am I the only one praying we finish top 4, but not aligned with Bama in the first game?

I'm just enjoying the ride assuming any playoff berth won't end well and just in case lightning strikes I got a playlist with nothing but Katrina and the Waves on it ready to go...

 

[Irish YJ]

After seeing this, I am all in for WSU to win it all if ND does not.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The new piece of art work in <a href="https://twitter.com/Coach_Leach?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Coach_Leach</a> office has made it nearly impossible to have a serious meeting ����. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GoCougs?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#GoCougs</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/JoinTheHunt?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#JoinTheHunt</a> <a href="https://t.co/Fvyx2YeIjK">pic.twitter.com/Fvyx2YeIjK</a></p>— Pat Chun (@pat_chun) <a href="https://twitter.com/pat_chun/status/1062496050089345024?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 14, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

that's glorious.
how can you not be a fan of the guy lol

 

[ThePiombino]

Literally all anyone has been talking about since 1st week of CFP rankings...

Am I the only one praying we finish top 4, but not aligned with Bama in the first game?

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

 

[ND88]

Syracuse. Big game. We need to be focused. We need to win against them. Playoff hopes depend on it. We must crush. Period.

But as fans, we can engage in the hypothetical scenarios.

I am so sick of this Michigan sh*t.

Such disrespect...

I would LOVE to play them again.

I'm really hoping for the opportunity.

It's so bad that the heads would still be talking about how Michigan is a better team than us even if we beat Clemson and they lose to Alabama.

They'd just make excuses about how Clemson wasn't actually that good.

I want Joel Klatt's prediction model that he's been selling all year to suck it.

Klatt's wisdom apparently didn't start until AFTER Michigan was beat by us.