2017 Record Prediction Thread

[NDdomer2]

This is the most significant post about the offense in this thread. And with the linked article may be the best this spring.

I cannot impress anyone with how much less predictable this offense is from linemen not giving away the play with the first two steps of their footwork, to the different personnel groups, etc. This is going to be worth three to four wins, this year over last year.

(In other words, three or four games we lost to teams with mediocre defenses and lower levels of talent were because our offense was so predictable. Defenses could play faster than our offense did. And that really affected DK's performance, too!)

Linemen had to be giving something away, I don't think I saw one significant bite from the LB's in the PA cut-ups.

Much better action on the traditional RPO's. We also appear to need some work on the pin pull concepts based on those cut-ups. Very boom or bust.

 

[Downinthebend]

Linemen had to be giving something away, I don't think I saw one significant bite from the LB's in the PA cut-ups.

Much better action on the traditional RPO's. We also appear to need some work on the pin pull concepts based on those cut-ups. Very boom or bust.

I think most of those standard playaction cutups were supposed to affect the safties rather than the linebackers (most of the concepts are not in the short middle, and the line isn't showing a run block at all). My hunch is that those standard playaction are just 7 step drop routes that they put run action on as "something to do" before the routes develop.

https://youtu.be/bZpfU6sf12w?t=3m32s Is the first that I really consider the linebackers affected

Also https://youtu.be/bZpfU6sf12w?t=3m56s

The naked game seems much more intended to attack the linebackers.

 

[Armyirish47]

Alright, most of you seem to be hung up on old school metrics likes "wins" and "losses". That is ridiculous.

According to S&P+ we were #26 in the country last year.

College Football’s three biggest under- and over-performers of 2016 | CollegeFootballTalk

And when you run that through a google box this was a team that SHOULD have won at least 7 games, making Notre Dame the biggest underperformer of the year.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/2/11/14577366/ncaa-win-totals-projections-2016

BLUF, this is not your grandma's 4 win team, and if they won 8 games and a bowl last year like they should have nobody would blink at 10 + win predictions. Instead we get the benefits of the talent of a #26 type team AND hooked up the juvenation machine (Long, Elko, Polian, Balis, Big Screen TV, NDGradstudent finishing his 8 year program, etc.)

Game by game break down

Temple: New coach, still Temple = W 1 - 0
Georgia: Eason wets the bed if an extra blanket applies too much pressure = W 2 - 0
@ Boston College: They still play football? = W 3 - 0
@ Michigan State: Still bad as last year, only more sexually assaulty = W 4 - 0
Miami (OH): W 5 - 0
@ North Carolina: Graduated everybody, Elko has seen it before = W 6 - 0
Bye Week: NOBODY DOES BYE WEEK BETTER THAN US = R&R 6 - 0
USC: Darnold has a dumb last name = W 7 - 0
NC State: Mother Nature sits this one out = W 8 - 0
Wake Forest: Elko distributes their playbook but in a classy way, not like Louisville = W 9 - 0
@ Miami: Beat them last year and they are accepting applications for quarterback = W 10 - 0
Navy: PAIN = W 11 - 0
@ Stanford: Dream crushers = L 11 - 1

Bowl game = who knows. Big year, and Wimbush gets buzz for Heisman because as always....just wait till next year!

TAKE THAT FOR DATA

 

[NDdomer2]

Alright, most of you seem to be hung up on old school metrics likes "wins" and "losses". That is ridiculous.

According to S&P+ we were #26 in the country last year.

College Football’s three biggest under- and over-performers of 2016 | CollegeFootballTalk

And when you run that through a google box this was a team that SHOULD have won at least 7 games, making Notre Dame the biggest underperformer of the year.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/2/11/14577366/ncaa-win-totals-projections-2016

BLUF, this is not your grandma's 4 win team, and if they won 8 games and a bowl last year like they should have nobody would blink at 10 + win predictions. Instead we get the benefits of the talent of a #26 type team AND hooked up the juvenation machine (Long, Elko, Polian, Balis, Big Screen TV, NDGradstudent finishing his 8 year program, etc.)

Game by game break down

Temple: New coach, still Temple = W 1 - 0
Georgia: Eason wets the bed if an extra blanket applies too much pressure = W 2 - 0
@ Boston College: They still play football? = W 3 - 0
@ Michigan State: Still bad as last year, only more sexually assaulty = W 4 - 0
Miami (OH): W 5 - 0
@ North Carolina: Graduated everybody, Elko has seen it before = W 6 - 0
Bye Week: NOBODY DOES BYE WEEK BETTER THAN US = R&R 6 - 0
USC: Darnold has a dumb last name = W 7 - 0
NC State: Mother Nature sits this one out = W 8 - 0
Wake Forest: Elko distributes their playbook but in a classy way, not like Louisville = W 9 - 0
@ Miami: Beat them last year and they are accepting applications for quarterback = W 10 - 0
Navy: PAIN = W 11 - 0
@ Stanford: Dream crushers = L 11 - 1

Bowl game = who knows. Big year, and Wimbush gets buzz for Heisman because as always....just wait till next year!

TAKE THAT FOR DATA

lulz

 

[NDgradstudent]

I don't know how many of you saw the Observer's April Fools edition...but if you want to know why I'm not optimistic about the upcoming season, here is the reason.

8-4 is the ceiling, imo.

 

[IrishLion]

Temple: New coach, still Temple = W 1 - 0
Georgia: Eason wets the bed if an extra blanket applies too much pressure = W 2 - 0
@ Boston College: They still play football? = W 3 - 0
@ Michigan State: Still bad as last year, only more sexually assaulty = W 4 - 0
Miami (OH): W 5 - 0
@ North Carolina: Graduated everybody, Elko has seen it before = W 6 - 0
Bye Week: NOBODY DOES BYE WEEK BETTER THAN US = R&R 6 - 0
USC: Darnold has a dumb last name = W 7 - 0
NC State: Mother Nature sits this one out = W 8 - 0
Wake Forest: Elko distributes their playbook but in a classy way, not like Louisville = W 9 - 0
@ Miami: Beat them last year and they are accepting applications for quarterback = W 10 - 0
Navy: PAIN = W 11 - 0
@ Stanford: Dream crushers = L 11 - 1

This is amazing. POTY candidate.

The first two bolded were my favorite. I also like the "n/a" on the Miami (OH) game. That is subtle artwork.

The third bolded is my counterpoint: Darnold's grandpa was named Dick Hammer. That makes up for his dumb last name. Trojans win that one.

 

[woolybug25]

This is amazing. POTY candidate.

The first two bolded were my favorite. I also like the "n/a" on the Miami (OH) game. That is subtle artwork.

The third bolded is my counterpoint: Darnold's grandpa was named Dick Hammer. That makes up for his dumb last name. Trojans win that one.

My favorite part was "take that for data" mic drop at the end. Lolz.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Unless I missed some, ND has only three true road wins in the last three years (hail mary, late comeback, solid win). Color me skeptical.

@BC
@MSU
@UNC
@The U
@Stanford

And they still have to play UGA and USC.

I think ND can (and should) be much improved, but that's a tough schedule for a team that recently hasn't played well on the road. Maybe the new staff turnover can change this. Balis will have a toughness effect on these guys too that will help.

I think ND can win 9 but we'll see.

 

[ACamp1900]

Unless I missed some, ND has only three true road wins in the last three years (hail mary, late comeback, solid win). Color me skeptical.

@BC
@MSU
@UNC
@The U
@Stanford

And they still have to play UGA and USC.

Well damn it all.... I may have been a tad optimistic with my prediction.

 

[Black Irish]

I'm saying 8 wins from the cold reality, if I had to bet the rent money aspect. I don't think the schedule is as tough as advertised. But a lot of our positives cut both ways: new coaches & scheme, young team, etc. Youth and new energy can be great and create positive momentum or the lack of experience can be a stumbling block. I think going from 4-8 to double digits wins the next season is a lot to ask. I'm hoping for the best and it wouldn't surprise me if the Irish go 10 wins or better if a few things break their way. But there are a lot of unproven factors with this team that keep me from blindly chugging the Kool-Aid at this point.

 

[BobbyMac]

Blow the dust off this thread.

9-3 season.

Bowl game? Who knows.

 

[dwshade]

10-2. In Elko we trust.

 

[POTUS2017]

I'm saying 9-4, including a bowl win. Losses to Georgia, MSU, USC, and Stanford.

 

[Riddickulous]

IMO we revert to the mean and go 7-5/8-4.

 

[OhioIrishFan]

Want to say 9-3, but leaning 8-4.

Belk Bowl in Charlotte against a middle of the pack SEC team. Something similar to Music City vs. LSU a few years ago.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

10-3 with a nice bowl win that satiates 70% of the fan base.

Oh, and thank God ndgradstudent is no longer posting. I just feel better when i see a line through his name.

 

[wizards8507]

Where on Earth are you guys seeing 9 wins on that schedule?

7-6 at best, 6-7 most likely, 5-7 wouldn't shock me.

 

[Henges24]

Where on Earth are you guys seeing 9 wins on that schedule?

7-6 at best, 6-7 most likely, 5-7 wouldn't shock me.

Cool story, bro.

 

[greyhammer90]

8 wins. BK is not retained.


Buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut we could go 11-1, and I would not be shocked. But at some point you bet on what's been average for a guy. For BK 8 wins has been average.

 

[NorthDakota]

Where on Earth are you guys seeing 9 wins on that schedule?

7-6 at best, 6-7 most likely, 5-7 wouldn't shock me.

You trollin' fam?

 

[wizards8507]

You trollin' fam?

No. I think Georgia, USC, Stanford, and Miami are losses. Then our two annual "wtf" games.

 

[greyhammer90]

What has made Miami a good team suddenly? Didn't we beat them last year?

 

[koonja]

What has made Miami a good team suddenly? Didn't we beat them last year?

I think they return like 16 starters, and they were a better team than us last year even though we snuck out with a 3 point victory.

 

[Ndaccountant]

sticking to my 7-5, right around the BK mean.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Where on Earth are you guys seeing 9 wins on that schedule?

7-6 at best, 6-7 most likely, 5-7 wouldn't shock me.

No. I think Georgia, USC, Stanford, and Miami are losses. Then our two annual "wtf" games.

Easy to feel that way given ND's history, but I think this is a different year. BK has better coaches in place, a better S&C coach, and a first-year QB (which he usually has good fortune with). I think ND wins the games they're supposed to this year and then takes at least one of UG, USC, Stanford, Miami. They HAVE to get better on the road though for that to happen. That's where my skepticism comes in.

You say 7-6 at best. I say 7-6 at worst. I think 9 is perfectly reasonable expectation for this ND team.

 

[irishff1014]

The only games i believe that we should be worried about are Georgia, UNC due to the next week of playing USC, USC and Stanford because until we beat them i'll be worried.

 

[NorthDakota]

I think they return like 16 starters, and they were a better team than us last year even though we snuck out with a 3 point victory.

Anyone who lost to ND last year doesn't get to call themselves "a better team."

 

[Ndaccountant]

The only games i believe that we should be worried about are Georgia, UNC due to the next week of playing USC, USC and Stanford because until we beat them i'll be worried.

I am more worried about NC State than UNC. The Pack are going to win 8/9 this year.

 

[IrishLion]

Strike it all from the record, ND is going 12-0

Barstool Sports

Brian VanGorder was fired during last season after giving up about a billion points per game and everyone on the field looking lost all the time. Honestly, this one is on Brian Kelly. Probably shouldn’t be looking to pluck guys from the New York Jets. Lesson learned

Enter: Mike Elko from Wake Forest as D-Coordinator

Somehow he took a bunch of nobodies at Wake Forest and turned them into a pretty good defense(ranked as high as 28th by stats nerds). And that’s with an active spy selling secrets plays and signals to Louisville and others.

You know what I love even more than the Law of Averages though…ghosts. RIP Ara Parseghian. Ara Parseghian LOVED Notre Dame. So now in addition to God and Jesus, Notre Dame has angel football coach on their side up in heaven. HUGE advantage

9/9 vs Georgia: This is week 2 for Georgia so I would expect most of their guys to be hurt and or suspended. If they aren’t well just remember that Jacob Eason has a fat face and it’s tough for fat faces to be great QBs even if Stafford did just get paid. Win

 

[Meacon Irish]

I'm thinking 9-4/10-3. I'm hoping that any way.

I don't think people should be giving those predicting 7-5/6-6 a hard time. We had a (now) starting NFL QB on the team last year and went 4-8. Things can go just as terribly this year, so let's not kid ourselves. I get being optimistic, but acting like we're above a 7-5 season is a bit homer-iffic.