2016 Presidential Horse Race

[Buster Bluth]

Cruz has a 0% chance of winning the general, not sure why anyone would jump on that ship.

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[irishfan]

Cruz has a 0% chance of winning the general, not sure why anyone would jump on that ship.

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Agreed. I see 0 crossover appeal. At least with Trump, he can get some independents and blue-collar Dems. At the end of the day, I think most of the Republicans who are anti-Trump right now will come out to vote for him, even it's just an anti-Hillary vote.

I only see Trump or Kasich winning the general from the Republican side. And I don't see Kasich happening at this point. Even if he wins Ohio, he will come up short on delegates and Trump will go 3rd party out of spite if the GOP goes against him in a brokered convention.

 

[wizards8507]

Cruz has a 0% chance of winning the general, not sure why anyone would jump on that ship.

If it's Cruz vs. Hillary, I bet you a hundred real dollars you're wrong.

Agreed. I see 0 crossover appeal. At least with Trump, he can get some independents and blue-collar Dems. At the end of the day, I think most of the Republicans who are anti-Trump right now will come out to vote for him, even it's just an anti-Hillary vote.

Democrats hate Trump. Democrats hate Cruz. Republicans hate Clinton.

That would be an everyone-hates-the-other-guy tie. Except that loads of Republicans hate Trump, too.

 

[Wild Bill]

Cruz has a 0% chance of winning the general, not sure why anyone would jump on that ship.

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CNN, Fox, Quinnipiac and USA Today polls suggest the opposite.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I'm fully expecting Rubio to drop out after he loses FL next week. If Trump beats Kasich in OH too, who knows what will happen. What I do know, is that a Trump vs HRC general would be the absolute worst thing for this country. Both are terrible terrible candidates for POTUS.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

CNN, Fox, Quinnipiac and USA Today polls suggest the opposite.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton

Yeah, HRC doesn't do well against the Repubs. She's basically a toss-up vs Trump and loses to all others.

 

[wizards8507]

Yeah, HRC doesn't do well against the Repubs. She's basically a toss-up vs Trump and loses to all others.

That's the thing everyone forgets when they harp on Trump or Cruz' negatives. HRC is just as bad or worse.

 

[Buster Bluth]

If it's Cruz vs. Hillary, I bet you a hundred real dollars you're wrong.

I would be willing to personally deliver you a gold bar.

The Democrats have a commanding advantage in the electoral layout and a guy who is the son of a crackpot pastor doesn't stand a chance to win northern swingstates. It's 2016, you don't win national elections after getting on stage with a guy who screams "god says kill the gays!" during your campaign.

Or to put it simply, if Glenn Beck is so in love with a candidate that he has to turn to his scribbling chalkboard so he can tuck in his boner, you're not the sort of candidate who stands a chance against the Clinton machine.

 

[wizards8507]

I would be willing to personally deliver you a gold bar.

The Democrats have a commanding advantage in the electoral layout and a guy who is the son of a crackpot pastor doesn't stand a chance to win northern swingstates. It's 2016, you don't win national elections after getting on stage with a guy who screams "god says kill the gays!" during your campaign.

Or to put it simply, if Glenn Beck is so in love with a candidate that he has to turn to his scribbling chalkboard so he can tuck in his boner, you're not the sort of candidate who stands a chance against the Clinton machine.

We'll see. Moderate Republicans haven't been successful recently. They don't draw enough of a contrast between themselves and the Democrats.

That pastor guy is nuts for real though. I think I have a good feel for who Ted Cruz is and I hope he denounces him strongly.

 

[IrishLax]

When the rest of the country gets to see how crazy/unlikable Cruz is, he has a zero percent chance of winning the general. The Democrats could nominate a well-manner banana slug and I'd vote for the slug.

 

[IrishLax]

My dream right now is that everyone stays in until the bitter end, and then at a brokered convention everyone unites behind Kasich.

 

[wizards8507]

When the rest of the country gets to see how crazy/unlikable Cruz is, he has a zero percent chance of winning the general. The Democrats could nominate a well-manner banana slug and I'd vote for the slug.

I've seen this theory lots of places, but it's not like Ted Cruz is some unknown quantity. Anyone who will be inclined to hate him already does (and most of them hate Trump even more).

My dream right now is that everyone stays in until the bitter end, and then at a brokered convention everyone unites behind Kasich.

Zero chance, especially because he won't have his Ohio delegates to leverage. The convention nominee would be Rubio, Romney, or Ryan with Cruz or Trump as a VP to keep the dogs at bay.

 

[connor_in]

Trump infomercial captivates networks - POLITICO

 

[BleedBlueGold]

That's the thing everyone forgets when they harp on Trump or Cruz' negatives. HRC is just as bad or worse.

See previous post --> I said HRC is a horrible choice for POTUS. I also feel that Trump and Cruz are horrible too.

Polling has been off for the biggest part of this process. They suggest HRC would lose, but I have to admit, this country is pretty progressive and even though HRC is not a true progressive, it benefits her that most people are fucking ignorant as hell when it comes to politics and they'll vote for her anyways.

 

[IrishLax]

I've seen this theory lots of places, but it's not like Ted Cruz is some unknown quantity. Anyone who will be inclined to hate him already does (and most of them hate Trump even more).

Zero chance, especially because he won't have his Ohio delegates to leverage. The convention nominee would be Rubio, Romney, or Ryan with Cruz or Trump as a VP to keep the dogs at bay.

He's known, but not to the correct depth yet. What Buster said is correct, because once people start vetting him and he's all over the airwaves 24/7 he has a zero percent chance of winning in places like Ohio that are necessary for a Republican to have a chance. He religious stances do not fit with the populous north of the Mason-Dixon line or west of Texas.

 

[connor_in]

https://medium.com/america-rising-pac/the-undemocratic-democratic-primary-6f0a4e3d0976#.52du58ltk

U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) promises he’s in the Democratic primary to stay, but that pledge may soon fall victim to simple arithmetic and an arcane Democratic Party process known as “superdelegates.”

A casual observer of politics may wonder: how is that possible? After all, heading into yesterday’s contests, Senator Sanders has won nearly half of the primaries and caucuses held to date: of the 20 contests held so far, Sanders has won eight, while former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY) has 12.

Yet, Senator Sanders trails by a more than two-to-one margin in the delegate count: of the 2,383 delegates needed to clinch the nomination, Secretary Clinton has amassed 1,130 delegates, while Sanders stands at 499.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

https://medium.com/america-rising-pac/the-undemocratic-democratic-primary-6f0a4e3d0976#.52du58ltk

As long as Bernie is getting enough money to stay on, he will. He's not just trying to get the presidency, but he's trying to start a movement. Hell, he's already pushed HRC further left than she every would've been (the problem is that she's a typical D.C. panderer and will say whatever is needed to get votes so her words don't mean much). Bottom line, Bernie's on a mission and as long as he has the means, he's going to stay in the race.

 

[wizards8507]

He religious stances do not fit with the populous north of the Mason-Dixon line or west of Texas.

You talk about vetting him but he's not anything close to what you're portraying him as. For example, he's not in the crowd of wanting to ban gay marriage. He views it as a constitutional issue that should be left to the states. He's a constitutionalist. Compare to Huckabee and Santorum.

 

[connor_in]

As long as Bernie is getting enough money to stay on, he will. He's not just trying to get the presidency, but he's trying to start a movement. Hell, he's already pushed HRC further left than she every would've been (the problem is that she's a typical D.C. panderer and will say whatever is needed to get votes so her words don't mean much). Bottom line, Bernie's on a mission and as long as he has the means, he's going to stay in the race.

From what i have heard, she "ain't no wayz tarhd"

 

[ACamp1900]

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/eE6ica0t95Q" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/eE6ica0t95Q" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

biter...

 

[wizards8507]

biter...

Wow I missed it by a week, huh?

 

[Wild Bill]

You talk about vetting him but he's not anything close to what you're portraying him as. For example, he's not in the crowd of wanting to ban gay marriage. He views it as a constitutional issue that should be left to the states. He's a constitutionalist. Compare to Huckabee and Santorum.

That's the same thing to the media. He's going to be portrayed as a racist, homophobic, sexist. Defending himself by claiming he's a "constitutionalist" will not work to gain enough independent voters.

I definitely think he can beat Clinton in a general but he has to knock it off with all the constitution talk and figure out better ways to connect his constitutional principles to the lives of ordinary voters who don't carry the constitution in their back pocket.

 

[wizards8507]

That's the same thing to the media. He's going to be portrayed as a racist, homophobic, sexist. Defending himself by claiming he's a "constitutionalist" will not work to gain enough independent voters.

I definitely think he can beat Clinton in a general but he has to knock it off with all the constitution talk and figure out better ways to connect his constitutional principles to the lives of ordinary voters who don't carry the constitution in their back pocket.

Squishy moderate Mitt Romney was portrayed as a right-wing extremist. They're going to do it to the Republican no matter who the nominee is.

 

[NDohio]

You talk about vetting him but he's not anything close to what you're portraying him as. For example, he's not in the crowd of wanting to ban gay marriage. He views it as a constitutional issue that should be left to the states. He's a constitutionalist. Compare to Huckabee and Santorum.

I fall into the category of being an Evangelical(I don't necessarily agree - but that's a different topic), and I find Cruz to be more despicable than Trump. With Trump we know who we are and what we are getting(I will NEVER vote for him). Cruz is a different animal. He is a wolf in sheep's clothing. I found the way he promotes his religion to be offensive as his actions/attitude do not match his words. Discussing this election with our fellow church goers and they, for the most part(70%), agree that Cruz is a dangerous option.

 

[Buster Bluth]

Squishy moderate Mitt Romney was portrayed as a right-wing extremist. They're going to do it to the Republican no matter who the nominee is.

Respectfully, I think your perspective is way off here. Romney was portrayed as a right-wing extremist because he played one to win the primaries.

You see moderates lose and think "we need more contrast," and that's because you're a super conservative guy relative to the average American. I think the moderates lose because they had to play hardliner GOP for six months and then completely change their tune and reinvent themselves in the fall. The problem is that they have to reinvent themselves, it's the hardline stances they have to take in the primaries that kill them. If the GOP primaries weren't usually the loudest gay-bashing, abortion-fearing, no-tax-cut-is-big-enough proclaiming competition in the world, they would be able to run on better issues.

And if my theory is correct, a guy who embodies everything that is wrong about the GOP is not going to win because he draws contrast to the Democrats. He'd get slaughtered because he is everything the GOP south wants, which the rest of the country has rejected again and again.

Democrats could play this over and over and over and everyone with their head screwed on would reject the Cruz family immediately, he can't disown his own father like he could other evangelical pastors:

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/L_kehg8F3kU" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[Wild Bill]

Squishy moderate Mitt Romney was portrayed as a right-wing extremist. They're going to do it to the Republican no matter who the nominee is.

Completely agree. That's my point - he can't overcome the barrage with his current approach.

Cruz is a principled man and he's impossible to debate assuming the audience is filled with like minded people. And that's the issue, his audience will not be like minded. He has to do more than talk about the constitution like he wrote the damn thing.

He should study milton friedman. The guy was a master of simplifying complex issues and explaining them concisely to any audience. And he did it in likable, pleasant manner. Cruz has yet to demonstrate the same talent. Maybe it's within him, maybe it's not.

 

[wizards8507]

Respectfully, I think your perspective is way off here. Romney was portrayed as a right-wing extremist because he played one to win the primaries.

You see moderates lose and think "we need more contrast," and that's because you're a super conservative guy relative to the average American. I think the moderates lose because they had to play hardliner GOP for six months and then completely change their tune and reinvent themselves in the fall. The problem is that they have to reinvent themselves, it's the hardline stances they have to take in the primaries that kill them. If the GOP primaries weren't usually the loudest gay-bashing, abortion-fearing, no-tax-cut-is-big-enough proclaiming competition in the world, they would be able to run on better issues.

And if my theory is correct, a guy who embodies everything that is wrong about the GOP is not going to win because he draws contrast to the Democrats. He'd get slaughtered because he is everything the GOP south wants, which the rest of the country reject again and again.

We'll see. We've had two "real" conservatives in modern presidential politics. One lost in a landslide, the other won in two landslides.

Democrats could play this over and over and over and everyone would their head screwed on would reject the Cruz family immediately, he can't disown his own father like he could other evangelical pastors:

If Cruz' father is fair game, then so is William Jefferson "BJ" Clinton.

 

[GoIrish41]

Squishy moderate Mitt Romney was portrayed as a right-wing extremist. They're going to do it to the Republican no matter who the nominee is.

That's how he portrayed himself! He called himself "severely conservative" as if it was an adverse medical condition. He went on a national campaign of blaming the "takers" in the society as self serving, uninformed dolts who wanted to keep getting free stuff from those who really made this country great -- guys like him and his elite billionaire buddies. He took a harsh and insulting stance on immigration, one of dozens of things he said that slowly pushed him further and further right. It wasn't the media or the liberals who portrayed him as a right wing extremist, it was his shameless pandering to right wing extremists that earned him that monicker.

Guys like Rubio or Kasich might be able to get some traction against Clinton because they are reasonably intelligent and have not sold their souls to the party faithful (largely because they have been relevant in the election and not been called upon to do so). But Rubio and Kasich are clearly not who the republicans want as their standard bearer. Cruz started out more disliked than Romney became through campaigning. He has absolutely no chance of winning a general election.

 

[wizards8507]

That's how he portrayed himself! He called himself "severely conservative" as if it was an adverse medical condition. He went on a national campaign of blaming the "takers" in the society as self serving, uninformed dolts who wanted to keep getting free stuff from those who really made this country great -- guys like him and his elite billionaire buddies. He took a harsh and insulting stance on immigration, one of dozens of things he said that slowly pushed him further and further right. It wasn't the media or the liberals who portrayed him as a right wing extremist, it was his shameless pandering to right wing extremists that earned him that monicker.

Guys like Rubio or Kasich might be able to get some traction against Clinton because they are reasonably intelligent and have not sold their souls to the party faithful (largely because they have been relevant in the election and not been called upon to do so). But Rubio and Kasich are clearly not who the republicans want as their standard bearer. Cruz started out more disliked than Romney became through campaigning. He has absolutely no chance of winning a general election.

I'm not talking about candidate messaging, I'm talking about the way the Republican nominee will be treated by the media. Even Kasich would be skewered as some kind of 1950s throwback.

 

[Buster Bluth]

I'm not talking about candidate messaging, I'm talking about the way the Republican nominee will be treated by the media. Even Kasich would be skewered as some kind of 1950s throwback.

Socially, not really. He'd have to run away from his recent Planned Parenthood funding issues.

Mostly he'd struggle to get northern swing states because of his attempt to destroy the public unions in Ohio, which backfired tremendously. He is lucky it happened early in his tenure (although that shows his priorities..) or he would have lost his reelection. Ironically the media would skewer him for not being like a 1950s throwback:

"Only a fool would try to deprive working men and women of the right to join the union of their choice." —Dwight D. Eisenhower