2016 Presidential Horse Race

[Bluto]

It's not complicated. The war on poverty and war on crime pushed fathers out of homes in urban neighborhoods, leaving single mothers earning low wages and depending on government.

Jesus, Mary and Joseph. You're right it's not complicated but it takes getting out of the bubble that many on this board seem to be living in according to that survey on how in touch one is with middle America or whatever that was posted in the Politics thread (I scored an 89). The Black and Latino political establishment do not want to bite that feeds. It's that simple. Case in point, I've known Dolores Huerta for 40 plus years and was embarrassed by the crap she pulled in Nevada in terms of shilling for Clinton. It was truly pathetic. From what I have seen on social media younger Lations are overwhelmingly in the Sanders camp and there is a distinct generational divide from what I've seen. Add to that the fact that a large percentage of younger Black males are probably disqualified out the gate due to issues with the law and there you have it. If you are genuinely curious about these issues go out and talk to some Black's or Mexicans or if that's asking too much just watch the Wire because there are a bunch of parallels between that show's story line and what is going on in the Democratic nomination process.

 

[IrishLax]

Jesus, Mary and Joseph. You're right it's not complicated but it takes getting out of the bubble that many on this board seem to be living in according to that survey on how in touch one is with middle America or whatever that was posted in the Politics thread (I scored an 89). The Black and Latino political establishment do not want to bite that feeds. It's that simple. Case in point, I've known Dolores Huerta for 40 plus years and was embarrassed by the crap she pulled in Nevada in terms of shilling for Clinton. It was truly pathetic. From what I have seen on social media younger Lations are overwhelmingly in the Sanders camp and there is a distinct generational divide from what I've seen. Add to that the fact that a large percentage of younger Black males are probably disqualified out the gate due to issues with the law and there you have it. If you are genuinely curious about these issues go out and talk to some Black's or Mexicans or if that's asking too much just watch the Wire because there are a bunch of parallels between that show's story line and what is going on in the Democratic nomination process.

Even older ones are coming around... my uncle and grandparents all switched to supporting Sanders within the past couple months. I don't know a single Latino right now in my family or otherwise that outspokenly supports Clinton, but I know many that are adamantly pro-Sanders.

 

[IrishLax]

So Trump gets all of the delegates from Mississippi despite Cruz getting nearly 37% of the vote. Winner take all states are the only way Trump gets above 50%... right now he needs about 55% of the remaining delegate pool to reach the threshold and that would be impossible if every state was proportional.

 

[BGIF]

MI GOES SANDERS

MI GOES SANDERS

per CNN

50.0 to 48.0


There are 130 pledged delegates and 17 Superdelegates.

Of the 130 Sanders has won 44 to 43 with 47 still at stake.


Sanders won the battle, Clinton fattens her delegate count.

 

[kmoose]

This is funny........

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

Check out @NateSilver538's Tweet: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/707392312700248067?s=09

 

[Buster Bluth]

This is funny........

It's as lame as the Halloween candy jokes conservatives retweet every October.

 

[calvegas04]

Trump takes Hawaii

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Based on the corrupt DNC and their superdelegates.

If Clinton truly has the super delegates on lock how she claims she does, then there is more of a chance of Rubio/Cruz/Kasich beating Trump than there is of Sanders beating Clinton. It's almost mathematically impossible for him to win at this point if she has that built in 20% buffer.

We've been over this though: If Bernie wins the popular vote, the supers will be forced to make a decision - screw over the people and stick with the establishment, or switch their support to Bernie. The GOP will be up against the same thing when Trump gets the popular vote. Shit will absolutely hit the fan if the DNC and RNC screw over their voters. It could get ugly.

I disagree on the superdelegates (and agree about the DNC and well the RNC as well). The superdelegates will go with the candidate who wins the primaries. The reason that Sanders won't be the nominee is that he can't get black people to vote for him. Clinton won't need the DNC or superdelegates if that continues.

Sanders wants to raise minimum wage, reduce incarceration rates, fought for civil rights (during the Civil Rights movement), was arrested for doing so, wants universal health care, and free college education...

Yet, he can't can't get black American votes? I can't figure this out... What's the consensus on this? Is it because he's old, white, and male, and "they're all racist"? Is it because they have loved Obama and think Hillary will keep the torch going (even though Bernie would burn the torch brighter)?

I'm not invested enough to look up reasons for his lack of support, but I don't know how his platform is missing.

The AA community has huge support for the Clintons and it's all name recognition. Bill ran as the friendly candidate back in the 90s and gained massive popularity. What's fucking absurd to me is how ignorant people are to realize that the Clintons were all talk and when you look at what they've actually done in D.C., it's the complete opposite to what they ran on (shocker). Bernie is 100% the better choice over Hillary for the AA community, but HRC has the name recognition and Bernie doesn't. (And the majority of people in this country, not race-related, won't take the time to actually learn about the candidates so that's a problem.)

 

[wizards8507]

We've been over this though: If Bernie wins the popular vote, the supers will be forced to make a decision - screw over the people and stick with the establishment, or switch their support to Bernie.

Except the superdelegates ARE the establishment. They're not regular folks.

 

[kmoose]

It's as lame as the Halloween candy jokes conservatives retweet every October.

Aww....... did your feelers get hurt?

It's a funny picture. And that's not a slam on Sanders.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Except the superdelegates ARE the establishment. They're not regular folks.

Point still stands. They have to make a choice whether or not to completely dick over the voters. See Dem Convention 1968.*

*The reality is is that Washington will do what it wants, when it wants. People will get pissed, but they're so small that eventually they'll realize their role and just continue on with their lives. So, yes, the DNC and RNC both could theoretically screw over the candidate who received the most popular votes, people will get pissed, but life will move on. But I'd bet everything, it won't move on without riots and a massive uprising of angry angry voters...

...In the event that the establishment screws over the voters, they then need to take into account voter turnout for the general election. I mean you literally just told every person who voted that their vote didn't matter, yet "Hey, come back out and vote again!" Uhh, yea right.

That's why I believe this whole Super Del. thing is just an empty threat. If Bernie keeps winning (with the southern states all but wrapped, besides FL), you'll see him gain on her. If he can get to CA, you may even see him take the lead this summer. At that point, you'll see the Supers switch allegiance (ala Obama vs RHC '08).

 

[Cackalacky]

Check out @NateSilver538's Tweet: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/707392312700248067?s=09

Nate Silver, Real Clear Politics and Huff Post had Bernie loosing by 15+ points in Michigan. They really missed that one. Makes me think Ohio may be more in play that is currently being shown.

The 15th is going to be a really important day for the Dems.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Nate Silver, Real Clear Politics and Huff Post had Bernie loosing by 15+ points in Michigan. They really missed that one. Makes me think Ohio may be more in play that is currently being shown.

The 15th is going to be a really important day for the Dems.

 

[wizards8507]

Jesus, Mary and Joseph. You're right it's not complicated but it takes getting out of the bubble that many on this board seem to be living in according to that survey on how in touch one is with middle America or whatever that was posted in the Politics thread (I scored an 89). The Black and Latino political establishment do not want to bite that feeds. It's that simple. Case in point, I've known Dolores Huerta for 40 plus years and was embarrassed by the crap she pulled in Nevada in terms of shilling for Clinton. It was truly pathetic. From what I have seen on social media younger Lations are overwhelmingly in the Sanders camp and there is a distinct generational divide from what I've seen. Add to that the fact that a large percentage of younger Black males are probably disqualified out the gate due to issues with the law and there you have it. If you are genuinely curious about these issues go out and talk to some Black's or Mexicans or if that's asking too much just watch the Wire because there are a bunch of parallels between that show's story line and what is going on in the Democratic nomination process.

What's with the diatribe? We agree. I said "the war on poverty and war on crime pushed fathers out of homes in urban neighborhoods," and you said "black males are probably disqualified out the gate due to issues with the law and there you have it." We're saying the same thing.

Besides, we were answering two separate questions. You're answering why minorities are supporting Hillary so strongly over Bernie. I was answering why minorities automatically support big government Democrats, not why they support specific Democrats over others.

 

[wizards8507]

Point still stands. They have to make a choice whether or not to completely dick over the voters. See Dem Convention 1968.*

*The reality is is that Washington will do what it wants, when it wants. People will get pissed, but they're so small that eventually they realized their role and just continue on with their lives. So, yes, the DNC and RNC both could theoretically screw over the candidate who received the most popular votes, people will get pissed, but life will move on. But I'd bet everything, it won't move on without riots and a massive uprising of angry angry voters...

...In the event that the establishment screws over the voters, they then need to take into account voter turnout for the general election. I mean you literally just told every person who voted that their vote didn't matter, yet "Hey, come back out and vote again!" Uhh, yea right.

That's why I believe this whole Super Del. thing is just an empty threat. If Bernie keeps winning (with the southern states all but wrapped, besides FL), you'll see him gain on her. If he can get to CA, you may even see him take the lead this summer. At that point, you'll see the Supers switch allegiance (ala Obama vs RHC '08).

It's not gong to happen. The entire point of the superdelegates is to dick over the voters in an establishment "worst case scenario." They're not impartial observers who casually support Clinton, willing to flip if the tide of the vote turns against them. They're hardcore party people. The only reason they exist is to prevent the rise of an insurgent candidate. They'd obviously prefer if Clinton won outright, but they won't hesitate to stop Bernie as a last resort. Think about it. Every Democrat primary is proportional, meaning Bernie doesn't have the chance to "catch up" with winner-take-all states like he would on the Republican side. This is intentional. Bernie would have to win "regular" delegates something like 59-41 to overcome the superdelegate advantage. The type of people who would change from the "party" choice based on popular vote don't get named to be superdelegates in the first place.

tl;dr... If superdelegates were going to acquiesce to the voters, the DNC just wouldn't have superdelegates.

 

[connor_in]

Daily Caller editor says Trump thugs assaulted Michelle Fields twitchy.com

 

[IrishLax]

Here's the electoral snapshot from an anti-Trump, pro-Sanders point of view:

Trump: has 458 out of the required 1,237. He needs 54% of the remaining delegates to get to the magic number. So far, he has pulled only 44% through about 40% of the race. So is he magically going to turn UP his production by an effective 20%? Are there enough winner take all states? Probably not. It seems very unlikely unless Kasich/Rubio drop out. As long as it remains a 4 horse race it seems impossible for him to get over 50%.

Sanders: Including pledged supers, Sanders sits at 571 right now. He needs about 61% of the remaining delegates to hit the magic number. If you exclude supers, he only needs to run at ~55% depending on how much of a "lead" in delegate count you think he needs to have the supers flip to him. 55% is doable, 61% is virtually impossible. There are three states next Tuesday - Florida, Illinois, and Ohio - which are the end of the road for Sanders unless he pulls a Michigan-esque upset. Clinton has a 30 point lead in Florida and Illinois, and about a 10 point lead in Ohio. If she wins these states and a big chunk of the 500+ delegates they have between them then Sanders can't catch Clinton.

 

[wizards8507]

Are there enough winner take all states? Probably not. It seems very unlikely unless Kasich/Rubio drop out. As long as it remains a 4 horse race it seems impossible for him to get over 50%.

I disagree. It looks like Trump will win both Ohio and Florida, even with Rubio and Kasich still in the race. That'll take Rubio and Kasich out, but it'll be very hard from Cruz to catch up at that point.

 

[Buster Bluth]

Yeah Sanders is pretty much toast after next Tuesday unless he wins Ohio and basically ties Florida and Illinois.

I think it's pretty interesting that of the nine "blue states," Sanders is beating Clinton 5-4, and of the nine "red states," Clinton crushes Sanders 7-2. There goes that damn south again, ruining everything.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

It's not gong to happen. The entire point of the superdelegates is to dick over the voters in an establishment "worst case scenario." They're not impartial observers who casually support Clinton, willing to flip if the tide of the vote turns against them. They're hardcore party people. The only reason they exist is to prevent the rise of an insurgent candidate. They'd obviously prefer if Clinton won outright, but they won't hesitate to stop Bernie as a last resort. Think about it. Every Democrat primary is proportional, meaning Bernie doesn't have the chance to "catch up" with winner-take-all states like he would on the Republican side. This is intentional. Bernie would have to win "regular" delegates something like 59-41 to overcome the superdelegate advantage. The type of people who would change from the "party" choice based on popular vote don't get named to be superdelegates in the first place.

tl;dr... If superdelegates were going to acquiesce to the voters, the DNC just wouldn't have superdelegates.

I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm just looking at the hypothetical if/when scenario.

Bernie is pretty far behind, but most of HRC's lead came from the South. With all but FL out of the way, Bernie can start chipping in to her lead. He's not killing her head-to-head in most states, but small wins will begin to add up. If the race is close come June, CA could very well swing Sanders in the lead. It's a huge IF, but it's not impossible (yet).

My point is that IF Bernie takes the popular vote and the DNC decides to back HRC, what happens next? Maybe nothing. Or maybe everything. You can ask the same thing about Trump and the RNC. There's no denying he has a massive following at this point. What if the RNC says thanks but no thanks? You think people are just going to roll over and let that happen? At this point you have two NON-Establishment candidates with massive amounts of support. My tin foil hat my be on full power mode, but that's the type of shit that starts revolutions. This is supposed to be a democracy and if the government tells all of us peasants to piss off, that's probably not going to go over well.

 

[wizards8507]

You can ask the same thing about Trump and the RNC.

Absolutely. The RNC has their own "this-shit-stinks" process like the superdelegates. Ironically, Rule 40 was designed to prevent someone like Ron or Rand Paul from challenging an incumbent Mitt Romney in the 2016 primary if Romney had won in 2012. Now, that very rule might be what forces the party to nominate Trump at the convention even if he doesn't get a majority of delegates.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Here's the electoral snapshot from an anti-Trump, pro-Sanders point of view:

Trump: has 458 out of the required 1,237. He needs 54% of the remaining delegates to get to the magic number. So far, he has pulled only 44% through about 40% of the race. So is he magically going to turn UP his production by an effective 20%? Are there enough winner take all states? Probably not. It seems very unlikely unless Kasich/Rubio drop out. As long as it remains a 4 horse race it seems impossible for him to get over 50%.

Sanders: Including pledged supers, Sanders sits at 571 right now. He needs about 61% of the remaining delegates to hit the magic number. If you exclude supers, he only needs to run at ~55% depending on how much of a "lead" in delegate count you think he needs to have the supers flip to him. 55% is doable, 61% is virtually impossible. There are three states next Tuesday - Florida, Illinois, and Ohio - which are the end of the road for Sanders unless he pulls a Michigan-esque upset. Clinton has a 30 point lead in Florida and Illinois, and about a 10 point lead in Ohio. If she wins these states and a big chunk of the 500+ delegates they have between them then Sanders can't catch Clinton.

She was up 20 points in the recent poll prior to yesterday's MI primary and he won. She'll probably win FL (old people and black people). But he could easily beat her in IL and OH just as he did in MI. It'll be very interesting to see what happens. If he loses all of them, then yeah, I don't really see how it can be accomplished.

 

[RDU Irish]

Frontloading HQ: 2016 Republican Delegate Allocation Rules by State

Nice graphic of how delegates are allocated for Republicans. Confusing as balls but seems to go without saying that Trump runs away if he wins Ohio and Florida.

 

[wizards8507]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Close up of the "Trump Steaks." Does that say Bush Brothers? There's a Bush Brothers in WPB <a href="https://t.co/hhdMzBTBrJ">https://t.co/hhdMzBTBrJ</a> <a href="https://t.co/Ro3BiwwXkC">pic.twitter.com/Ro3BiwwXkC</a></p>— Greg Pollowitz (@GPollowitz) <a href="https://twitter.com/GPollowitz/status/707370531293634560">March 9, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

This fucking guy. Makes a big dog-and-pony show about how "Trump Steaks" is alive and well and HE DOESN'T EVEN REMOVE THE LABEL THAT SHOWS THE ACTUAL BUTCHER WHO MADE THE STEAKS. He's incapable of telling the truth about even the most ridiculous, absurd little detail.

 

[connor_in]

Absolutely. The RNC has their own "this-shit-stinks" process like the superdelegates. Ironically, Rule 40 was designed to prevent someone like Ron or Rand Paul from challenging an incumbent Mitt Romney in the 2016 primary if Romney had won in 2012. Now, that very rule might be what forces the party to nominate Trump at the convention even if he doesn't get a majority of delegates.

Did I hear correctly that Rule 40 can be changed anytime right up to the start date of the convention

 

[wizards8507]

Did I hear correctly that Rule 40 can be changed anytime right up to the start date of the convention

You did. They can manipulate the rules all they want.

 

[connor_in]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="und" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Boom?src=hash">#Boom</a>! <a href="https://t.co/tCvxdfqcJf">pic.twitter.com/tCvxdfqcJf</a></p>— Adam Baldwin (@AdamBaldwin) <a href="https://twitter.com/AdamBaldwin/status/707454335991599104">March 9, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[wizards8507]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="und" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Boom?src=hash">#Boom</a>! <a href="https://t.co/tCvxdfqcJf">pic.twitter.com/tCvxdfqcJf</a></p>— Adam Baldwin (@AdamBaldwin) <a href="https://twitter.com/AdamBaldwin/status/707454335991599104">March 9, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

And Rand Paul for Treasury Secretary.

In all seriousness, That would be awesome but I think there might be too much bad blood between Cruz and Rubio.

 

[irishfan]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="und" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Boom?src=hash">#Boom</a>! <a href="https://t.co/tCvxdfqcJf">pic.twitter.com/tCvxdfqcJf</a></p>— Adam Baldwin (@AdamBaldwin) <a href="https://twitter.com/AdamBaldwin/status/707454335991599104">March 9, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I would see this playing poorly if anything. Trump does better when it seems like it's him (and his supporters) vs. the world. I think the push for the broken convention plan is only sitting well with ardent Cruz/Rubio/Kasich supporters and not so well with people who don't have their minds made up 100%. The Romney speech last week did not go well. This sort of pre-determined mic-drop collusion at a debate would backfire IMO....they'd be way better off just having Rubio drop out and endorsing Cruz.

Either way, the map is going to favor Trump over Cruz going forward even if it gets to 1-on-1. Cruz can attack him on the issues all day, but Trump will up the personal attacks. He might not get the 1,237 delegates, but I can't see Trump not finishing with the most delegates by the end. I don't think the GOP will go for Cruz in a brokered convention.