2015 FBS Polls

[JughedJones]

Replace "wearing a spangly outfit" with "recently banned for acting like a madman with a penchant to mix alcohol and prescription drugs to rival Steve Sarkisian."

Yes. I do drugs. You cracked the code.

There's that ESPN Cracker Jack journalism that we've all become accustomed to.

 

[Cackalacky]

With the FPI Ole Miss gets large boosts because they get equal credit for trashing two shitty teams as ND does against power 5 teams. Obviously OM will be vastly more efficient defensively and offensively against two FCS schools as opposed to and who played two much more talented teams but were less efficient obviously because of on the field talent.

 

[stlnd01]

It is all subjective. It is all at this point based on incomplete and incomparable data. And yet it all has a pretty strong track record of working itself out in the end way more often than not. Chill.

Edit: What I mean is: None of this matters for another two and a half months. Just enjoy the games.

 

[wizards8507]

With the FPI Ole Miss gets large boosts because they get equal credit for trashing two shitty teams as ND does against power 5 teams. Obviously OM will be vastly more efficient defensively and offensively against two FCS schools as opposed to and who played two much more talented teams but were less efficient obviously because of on the field talent.

That's not correct. FPI adjusts for quality of opponent, especially if it's an FCS opponent.

Today, each FCS team has an FPI rating based on the final score of games dating back four years. As with FPI for FBS teams, the rating is a measure of team strength and represents the expected scoring margin against an average FBS opponent.

For example, North Dakota State enters the season with an FPI rating of plus-0.9, meaning if the Bison were to play an average (or 64th-ranked) FBS team, they would be favored slightly on a neutral field. In the coming season, there are 32 FCS teams with a higher FPI rating than the weakest FBS team and seven FBS-vs.-FCS games in which the FCS team has at least a 25 percent chance to win.

By capturing the true strength of each FCS team, we are also improving the accuracy of FPI’s FBS ratings and game predictions. With the updated formula, the team FPI favored continued to win 75 percent of FBS-only games since 2005, but predicted scoring-margin errors decreased compared with the previous system.

After accounting for the relative strength of FCS teams, Iowa State entered its home game against North Dakota State with a 66 percent chance to win. After losing to the Bison, the Cyclones fell 15 spots in FPI, and what was once a historically crippling loss was treated no differently than a loss to about the 66th-ranked FBS team.

So yes, Ole Miss' efficiency ratings are inflated, but they're adjusted back down because FPI takes more into account than just efficiency. Perhaps the adjustment isn't enough, but it's incorrect to state "they get equal credit for trashing two shitty teams as ND does against power 5 teams."

 

[RDU Irish]

ND's SOS after UVA was #44. After GT it is #51. Apparently playing a top 15 team hurts SOS according to the the ultra accurate "FPI" rankings.

Us beating them makes them looks worse, thus weakening our strength of schedule. It takes a few more games for those numbers to even out since half the world is knee deep in cream puffs to start the season.

Also love the concept being argued of SEC teams jumping dramatically in the rankings. It is pretty damn hard to jump more than 8 spots in the rankings when your entire conference is ranked in the top 10.

Auburn still ranked? LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Watching Bama/Ole Miss I couldn't help but think the whole time how this is the weakest Bama team I have seen in a long time. Could be a long year for those folks. Ole Miss did not impress me that much.

Tennessee being pumped up pre-season is nothing more than acknowledging the rest of the SEC is not as good and they are due to win a few against the big dogs.

 

[ACamp1900]

Yeah, Ole Miss has a few explosive players, but I didn't buy last year and I'm not this year either...

 

[wizards8507]

ND's SOS after UVA was #44. After GT it is #51. Apparently playing a top 15 team hurts SOS according to the the ultra accurate "FPI" rankings.

1. The 44 and 51 rankings are REMAINING strength of schedule. After playing Georgia Tech, our REMAINING strength of schedule is weaker because that strong opponent is no longer REMAINING.

2. Remaining SOS has nothing to do with calculating FPI. Remaining SOS is used in conjuction with FPI to get final projected win-loss record, but it is not a component thereof.

Efficiency metrics and other data is used to calculate FPI. FPI combined with remaining SOS is used to calculate expected win-loss record. In that order.

In other words, "Notre Dame is pretty good, so they're number nine. Notre Dame is number nine and they play the 51st strong schedule over the remainder of the season, so we project they finish 10-2."

 

[Irish Insanity]

Except Brady didn't do anything. That's why the allegations that I'll blindly defend ESPN are so misguided. I've openly criticized them for the way they handled the deflategate situation to the point that I was personally embarrassed by the company's reporting on the issue.

Some of you guys are truly, honestly, pathetic.....

Exactly. We're all entitled to our opinion. Some just think any differing from theirs is wrong.

Hell the Pats fans I personally know will straight up say there's no chance he wasn't involved.

 

[JughedJones]

Except Brady didn't do anything. That's why the allegations that I'll blindly defend ESPN are so misguided. I've openly criticized them for the way they handled the deflategate situation to the point that I was personally embarrassed by the company's reporting on the issue.

After seeing this, I can only assume that you are lost.

This, is our fault. We as a fanbase have failed you.

I'm sorry, Wizard. You poor, lost, silly son of a bitch.

 

[Cackalacky]

That's not correct. FPI adjusts for quality of opponent, especially if it's an FCS opponent.


So yes, Ole Miss' efficiency ratings are inflated, but they're adjusted back down because FPI takes more into account than just efficiency. Perhaps the adjustment isn't enough, but it's incorrect to state "they get equal credit for trashing two shitty teams as ND does against power 5 teams."

Horse shit. Tennessee Martin Does not have an FPI rank. Here is the FPI Movement for OM relative to ND based on their schedule so far:

Week OM FPI OM Opponent OM SOS ND FPI ND Opponent ND SOS
(RANK) (RANK) (RANK) (RANK)
Pre 20.7 (9) - 25 17 (18) - 33
1 25.3 (2) UTM (No Rank) 8 22 (10) TEXAS 41 33
2 27.7 (1) Fresno State (109) 6 21.7 (10) UVA 58 44
3 28.6 (1) 4 Alabama 14 21.3 (9) GT (12) 51

I understand they adjust it but it makes no sense to say that ND's performance against Texas was less than OM's performance against a team WITHOUT and FPI ranking to be adjusted. OM jumped to No. 2 after beating a team without an FPI ranking. THeir remaining SOS jumped from 25 to 8. LOL.

Am I to believe that OM's raping of two teams ranked under 109 per FPI and a road defeat of the #4 team is in any way equivalent or significantly better than ND's defeat's of the 12, 41 and 58 ranked FPI teams.

Horse shit. No way.

 

[IrishLax]

There's only one thing to say about FPI... it's about as predictive as any other poll or metric, and it's "formulas" are completely meritless. That is the consensus of all respected football statisticians, because ESPN is utterly opaque about how it works. ESPN is Enron just asking you to trust them that the numbers "make sense." No one else with respected metrics does that.

I don't hate on FPI, but I also don't respect ESPN for how they intentionally shield the QBR/FPI from scrutiny. FWIW, at least their narrative on QBR makes a lot of sense and I respect them for trying to develop an advanced algorithm that surpasses other methodologies... even if I have to take it on trust.

 

[wizards8507]

Horse shit. Tennessee Martin Does not have an FPI rank. Here is the FPI Movement for OM relative to ND based on their schedule so far:

I understand they adjust it but it makes no sense to say that ND's performance against Texas was less than OM's performance against a team WITHOUT and FPI ranking to be adjusted. OM jumped to No. 2 after beating a team without an FPI ranking. THeir remaining SOS jumped from 25 to 8. LOL.

Am I to believe that OM's raping of two teams ranked under 109 per FPI and a road defeat of the #4 team is in any way equivalent or significantly better than ND's defeat's of the 12, 41 and 58 ranked FPI teams.

Horse shit. No way.

There's a separate FPI ranking for FCS teams that factors in prior four years' performance. It's not exaclty the same as FBS FPI because there's just too much data for the States & Info group to process.

There's only one thing to say about FPI... it's about as predictive as any other poll or metric, and it's "formulas" are completely meritless. That is the consensus of all respected football statisticians, because ESPN is utterly opaque about how it works. ESPN is Enron just asking you to trust them that the numbers "make sense." No one else with respected metrics does that.

I don't hate on FPI, but I also don't respect ESPN for how they intentionally shield the QBR/FPI from scrutiny. FWIW, at least their narrative on QBR makes a lot of sense and I respect them for trying to develop an advanced algorithm that surpasses other methodologies... even if I have to take it on trust.

It's the exact same people, ESPN Stats & Information, that produce both metrics. Why do you trust one but distrust the other? Not trying to be argumentative, I'm honestly curious what you perceive to be the difference.

But yeah, FPI is stupid this early in the season. So is the Colley Matrix, the AP poll, and whatever the hell Jughed is talking about.

 

[IrishLax]

It's the exact same people, ESPN Stats & Information, that produce both metrics. Why do you trust one but distrust the other? Not trying to be argumentative, I'm honestly curious what you perceive to be the difference.

But yeah, FPI is stupid this early in the season. So is the Colley Matrix, the AP poll, and whatever the hell Jughed is talking about.

I tried to hit on that in the post:
1. The narrative on QBR makes a lot more sense. It has a clear mission that, to me, seems very logical.
2. There isn't a QBR alternative. Nobody else is charting QBs independent of "stats" and "results" to evaluate what they did with the football on every single drop back versus what they "could've" done.
3. Given the above, I'm more comfortable taking it on "trust" knowing that their mission statement and procedures seem legitimate (ESPN did multiple broadcasts explaining how it worked when they first unveiled it for the NFL QBs years ago) AND there is nothing else like it. There is no "QBR+" run by Football Outsiders or whoever that has a similar mission statement and is more transparent (i.e. showing the grade given for various plays, etc. and how all the formulas integrate).

 

[NDPhilly]

Yeah, Ole Miss has a few explosive players, but I didn't buy last year and I'm not this year either...

Yup Alabama had 5 turnovers and Ole Miss had that one lucky TD and Bama still had a chance at the end. It was pretty clear Alabama is the better team and wins that game like 4/5 times

 

[RDU Irish]

So if we adjust the SEC SOS for the fact the entire conference is grossly overrated, how does that affect the stats?

 

[phgreek]

Yup Alabama had 5 turnovers and Ole Miss had that one lucky TD and Bama still had a chance at the end. It was pretty clear Alabama is the better team and wins that game like 4/5 times

...probably true. Bama was at home, and if you are at home, and lose, you need to be penalized some for that. When you look at having 5 turnovers...I don't think the game should have been close...so whats that tell us about how good Ole Miss is. I think LSU would throttle them, UGA would throttle them, and so would a Bama team who played clean(er). Could live with Ole Miss moving up to 8 and Bama at 9. Its like some whacked out logic to make sure an SEC team stayed in the top 4, and so Alabama had to pay with the inflation of Ole Miss by being deflated...its nuts. I can't see Ole Mis at #3 and Bama at #12 based on that game and what we've seen of them prior...

 

[Booslum31]

I think the only way we get into the playoffs is going 12-0. 11-1 and we'll be begging. I'm just going to enjoy the ride.

 

[irishff1014]

Top 5 of Ohio state,Michigan state,Ole Miss, Ucla,ND

 

[BabyIrish]

Top 5 of Ohio state,Michigan state,Ole Miss, Ucla,ND

Not so fast. Ole Miss is in a dog fight with Vandy at home

 

[Cackalacky]

UCLA looks good. I hate Mora but they have all the parts in place right now.
Vanderbilt is giving Miss. A game right now. Hopefully they loose.

 

[ACamp1900]

Ole miss isn't a top five team, they were the definition of lucky last week

 

[irishfanjho15]

UCLA looks good. I hate Mora but they have all the parts in place right now.
Vanderbilt is giving Miss. A game right now. Hopefully they loose.

Shatter the facade. Mwahahahahaha.

 

[BGIF]

9/20 Poll with 9/26 Games

9/20 Poll with 9/26 Games

9/20 AP TOP 25
1. OSU Won WMU 38-12
2. MSU Won CMU 30-10
3. Miss Won VU 27-16
3. TCU Won TT 55-52 on Tip Drill
5. BU Won Rice 70-17
6. ND Won MASS 62-27
7. UGA Won Div 1 AA Southern 24-6
8. LSU Won SYR 34-24
9. UCLA WON AZ 56-20
10. FSU BYE
11. Clemson BYE
12. Alabama Won ULM 34-0
13. Oregon LOST Utah 62-20
14. A&M Won ARK in OT 29-21
15. OU BYE
16. Arizona LOST UCLA 56-20
17. Northwestern Won Ball St 24-19
18. Utah WON ORE 62-20
19. USC Winning AZ 35-0 H
20. GT LOST Duke 34-20
21. Stanford Beat Ore St 42-24
22. Wisconsin Beat Hawaii 28-0
22. Brigham Young LOST Michigan 31-0
24. Oklahoma State Won Texas 30-27
25. Missouri LOST

Dropping Out AZ, GT, BYU, MU and maybe ORE

Moving Up MSST, WV, UF (SEC RULE), Michigan (BIG10 Rule) ... (Michigan received NO votes last week) and maybe CAL

LAST WEEK OTR: (with 6/26 Records)
Miss St (3-1) 52; West Virginia Won (3-0) 48; Tennessee LOST (2-2) 45; CAL Won (4-0) 38; Won Toledo (3-0) 36; ASU Lost (2-2) 25; Houston Won(3-0) 22; Temple BYE (3-0) 20; Auburn LOST (2-2) 20; Texas Tech LOST (3-1) 20; Boise St WON (3-1) 17; Miami (Fla.) BYE (3-0) 13; Iowa WON (4-0) 10; KSU BYE (3-0) 8; Florida Won (4-0) 7; NC State Won (4-0) 5; Virginia Tech LOST (2-2) 4; Minnesota Won (3-1) 4; Memphis WON (4-0) 1

 

[NDPhilly]

UCLA should be in the top 4


can't believe I just said that

 

[calvegas04]

this is why a 8 team playoff would be magical

 

[Black Irish]

Any chance TCU drops for almost losing a Tecmo Bowl shoot out to an unranked Texas Tech?

 

[BGIF]

Any chance TCU drops for almost losing a Tecmo Bowl shoot out to an unranked Texas Tech?

Last week they were tied at 3 with MISS who struggled with unranked Vandy. BUT Vandy is an SEC team and TT isn't. TCU drops to 4th.

 

[ThePiombino]

Last week they were tied at 3 with MISS who struggled with unranked Vandy. BUT Vandy is an SEC team and TT isn't. TCU drops to 4th.

Yep - self-fulfilling prophecy.

 

[wizards8507]

this is why a 8 team playoff would be magical

Argument isn't a bug with college football, it's a feature. Rendering argument obsolete would be a huge step backwards.

 

[Irish#1]

Any chance TCU drops for almost losing a Tecmo Bowl shoot out to an unranked Texas Tech?

Maybe one spot at the most. Being it was a road game they will get something of a pass. I don't see any major shifts coming up, except Oregon will drop to 23-25.