First options are first options almost 100% of the time because kids develop or blow up earlier than others. Tyler Luatua was the #1 TE in the nation as a sophomore, and was basically everyone's first choice. Then other kids blow up, he struggles with some injuries, and he falls, and everyone forgets he was everyone's first choice.
Now does that mean he is the best TE in the nation now, or that other schools aren't now happy with some kids over him? Of course not. Recruiting is fluid, which is what I think a lot of you guys are missing.
Guys like Hill, Williams, Mokwuah, etc are some of the guys that blow up after or during their senior year every year. They will never sky rocket up the rankings enough to satisfy star chasers, and will never have the name value of an Andrew Williams type kid who has been on everyone's radar for over a year.
If you want a kid, you want a kid. Period. Who cares if he blew up as a sophomore or if he blew up as a senior? Justin Brent is still going to be the same college player, whether or not you offered when he had ZERO offers as a sophomore or when he skyrocketed up all the rankings after attending camps.
People can't have their cake and eat it too. You want the #1 early target in a guy like Luatua, Bars, Trumbetti, Hayes, etc and then brush kids like that off seemingly because he falls on the rankings and isn't hyped up towards the end of the cycle. Then the same people brush off the Hill's, Williams', Mokwuah's etc as plan B options that aren't as good simply because they were went after late. There is a reason so many teams went hard after those types of kids late. THEY ARE GOOD PROSPECTS.
There are very few 'sure fire' elite 5 star guys. The rest of it are guys you recruit because they can project to be very good in the system you run based on their physical and intangible traits. Mokwuah and the others have those. Notre Dame saw that, as did Bama, Florida, etc.