Russia Invades Ukraine

[Irish#1]

Putin has to feel like a Jaguar in South America that is starting to munch on a Capybara when an Anaconda starts wrapping itself around him.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

 

[greyhammer90]

If that’s true, that’s fucking bananas

Tweet has been deleted, what was it?

 

[ab2cmiller]

Tweet has been deleted, what was it?

It was a tweet about some anonymous group of hackers that supposedly hacked into the Russian system and disabled their control of all spy satellites.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

Enerhodar has Europe’s largest nuclear plant

 

[Ndaccountant]

Got an update on our business today with how the various sanctions and other private business refusing to work in Russia is impacting us. Our exposure is incredibly limited, comparatively speaking. There is no reasonable way to get stuff into Russia, as cargo and freight companies have blackballed Russia. Even if you could get material transported in, much of the domestic raw materials comes from companies owned by oligarchs on the sanctioned list, which nobody wants anything to do with. If our situation mirrors most, everything is grinding to a halt and things are going to get really bad there.

 

[ab2cmiller]

It seems as if a lot of the financial ramifications will likely remain even if Putin were to immediately leave Ukraine. Putin likely knows that and will just plow ahead.

 

[NorthDakota]

Interesting and short thread

 

[IrishLion]

Interesting and short thread

Russia going for the ol' hammer and anvil approach?

The big convoy straight to Kyiv, but moving slow... everyone thinks because they've got logistical issues, which they do, but probably aren't *actually* affecting their plan yet. They don't mind moving slow or sitting tight, because they've got another force moving east to meet up with more help.

Then the convoy sits there with the city under siege, acting as the anvil once their forces to the east double and back and act like the hammer.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

Russia going for the ol' hammer and anvil approach?

The big convoy straight to Kyiv, but moving slow... everyone thinks because they've got logistical issues, which they do, but probably aren't *actually* affecting their plan yet. They don't mind moving slow or sitting tight, because they've got another force moving east to meet up with more help.

Then the convoy sits there with the city under siege, acting as the anvil once their forces to the east double and back and act like the hammer.

And what keeps a series of drones from destroying these slow-moving convoys? I don't understand the logistics of modern warfare. Seems like these units would be sitting ducks? Does Russia have control of the air space? Or is Ukraine still flying fighters? THey could also do massive damage to these convoys.

 

[HouseofPain]

I dont think Ukraine has any more air bases left. They do have some drones in limited capacity.

 

[Rogue219]

 

[phillyirish]

Interesting and short thread

Disregarding the PR and social media coups that Ukraine is overwhelming winning. I think people don’t realize how big Ukraine is or how long major offensives take. It hasn’t even been a week yet.

I think people are trying to compare this to the first Gulf War, in which the US overran and enveloped the Iraqi guard divisions, destroying 3000 tanks and 150,000 prisoners in 4 days. But that was a 4/5th generational force in terms of technology (tanks and air), not to mention world class logistics, against mainly 3rd generational force.

Russia and Ukraine have relatively the same technology in their armed forces, with the exception of some still prototypical 5th generation tanks and fighters still not in serial production for Russia (they have like a dozen SU-57s).

Better comparison would be the Iraq-Iran War, which was evenly matched major conventional armies fighting to a standstill. Russia is doing much better than either of those performances.

I’m not saying Russia will succeed. Because even if they link up their enveloping forces, I’m not sure what the next move is. Those circled pockets will still put up resistance, and Russia doesn’t seem to have the manpower to pacify them.

It really just shows you how far and away the United States is compared to the rest of the world. Russia struggles mightily to invade its neighbor, when the United Stars had no issue putting almost an equal number of troops (110,000 peak strength) comfortably into a landlocked country on the other side of the world in Afghanistan.

 

[TorontoGold]

Tax code probably allows for this to be counted as a loss. Companies will be ok. Lmao

Not sure about that. It depends on the type of security these PE firms are holding. I don't have any exp in Russian capital markets, so I'm not sure what is the more lucrative security to have. If these companies hold pref shares or debt with retractable options on them then that's the part which would crucify the Russian businesses. I don't see how someone could invest in Russian equities as these businesses have Coen brother type accountants making masterpieces of their financials.

If you own Russian bonds I have serious questions lmao.

 

[IrishLion]

And what keeps a series of drones from destroying these slow-moving convoys? I don't understand the logistics of modern warfare. Seems like these units would be sitting ducks? Does Russia have control of the air space? Or is Ukraine still flying fighters? THey could also do massive damage to these convoys.

I'm no military expert, but I did see a twitter exchange where a military reporter in Ukraine was asked this question, and basically said that Ukraine doesn't want to risk their limited number of drones trying to target a convoy, because it's not worth the risk for the reward.

The convoys have SAM's that can target the drones, and the drones carry limited munitions. If the convoy is 40 miles long, you're going to take out 7 or 8 vehicles if you're lucky before you run out of munitions, and it's not worth losing the drone to take out 8 vehicles in such a massive convoy.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

I'm no military expert, but I did see a twitter exchange where a military reporter in Ukraine was asked this question, and basically said that Ukraine doesn't want to risk their limited number of drones trying to target a convoy, because it's not worth the risk for the reward.

The convoys have SAM's that can target the drones, and the drones carry limited munitions. If the convoy is 40 miles long, you're going to take out 7 or 8 vehicles if you're lucky before you run out of munitions, and it's not worth losing the drone to take out 8 vehicles in such a massive convoy.

Thanks. It seems if you took out 8ish vehicles near the front, you'd create a debris logjam that would further slow them down/make it difficult to continue.

How in the world have all the various countries not donated an infinite supply of drones by now? And why don't we have "independent contractors" flying drones for them to help push Russia back a bit? It doesn't seem like it would be overly difficult to have free actors joining the Foreign Legion to help Ukraine so it couldn't be pinned as a state operation.

This is how poor my understanding is in current operations.

 

[ShamrockOnHelmet]

Interesting, if not surprising…

 

[notredomer23]

Surely undercounted. Ukraine's totals overcounted.

 

[irishog77]

Disregarding the PR and social media coups that Ukraine is overwhelming winning. I think people don’t realize how big Ukraine is or how long major offensives take. It hasn’t even been a week yet.

I think people are trying to compare this to the first Gulf War, in which the US overran and enveloped the Iraqi guard divisions, destroying 3000 tanks and 150,000 prisoners in 4 days. But that was a 4/5th generational force in terms of technology (tanks and air), not to mention world class logistics, against mainly 3rd generational force.

Russia and Ukraine have relatively the same technology in their armed forces, with the exception of some still prototypical 5th generation tanks and fighters still not in serial production for Russia (they have like a dozen SU-57s).

Better comparison would be the Iraq-Iran War, which was evenly matched major conventional armies fighting to a standstill. Russia is doing much better than either of those performances.

I’m not saying Russia will succeed. Because even if they link up their enveloping forces, I’m not sure what the next move is. Those circled pockets will still put up resistance, and Russia doesn’t seem to have the manpower to pacify them.

It really just shows you how far and away the United States is compared to the rest of the world. Russia struggles mightily to invade its neighbor, when the United Stars had no issue putting almost an equal number of troops (110,000 peak strength) comfortably into a landlocked country on the other side of the world in Afghanistan.

Great post. The fact that iraq and iran border each other makes that comparison even better.

The Gulf War had about a 5 month build up for the U.S. and allies to stage, plan, and amass troops as well.

OIF even took ~2 months for Dubya to declare "Mission Accomplished." While the U.S. and allies weren't able to stage and amass like they did for the Gulf War, they were able to meticulously plan.

Another thing for people to consider is that iraq is roughly the size of California. Ukraine is a little smaller than Texas. While dwarfed in comparison to the entire U.S., or even the contiguous U.S., these are still huge areas ( and Phillyirish correctly pointed this out). Overnight success was never on the table for russia vs. Ukraine. 10-30 days seems like an acceptable timeframe for russia to grab a stranglehold, 30-45 days for a "mission accomplished" type of declaration. Russia is by no means ahead of schedule on their invasion, but I think it's tough to say they are really lagging behind (despite what "sources" say or defense officials say).

 

[irishog77]

Thanks. It seems if you took out 8ish vehicles near the front, you'd create a debris logjam that would further slow them down/make it difficult to continue.

How in the world have all the various countries not donated an infinite supply of drones by now? And why don't we have "independent contractors" flying drones for them to help push Russia back a bit? It doesn't seem like it would be overly difficult to have free actors joining the Foreign Legion to help Ukraine so it couldn't be pinned as a state operation.

This is how poor my understanding is in current operations.

It seems that way, but that's not really how that works. The convoy very likely has equipment and machinery that can be used to easily move earth and debris. Plus, there is a lot of manpower to even move it manually. Taking out a handful of vehicles won't really do anything. Additionally, most, if not all, of the military vehicles should have some decent off-road capability, so they could even just drive around it.

The simplest and most effective way to take out a convoy is basically carpet bombing it (like what we did in early on to afghani airfields). The vehicles are damaged or destroyed, but even more importantly, the road then becomes unusable. One large, crater-type of hole in the ground isn't much of an obstacle for a military convoy.

 

[Bishop2b5]

Is there any realistic scenario where Ukraine, without significant foreign military aid or involvement, wins this and sends Russia packing? I really want to believe so, bur I can't see it happening.

 

[Old Man Mike]

In case this hasn't been mentioned before:
1. Ukraine buys drones from Turkey. These drones are feared by Russian generals as they had real trouble with them not long ago in Armenia. They cost a few million dollars apiece. "Sending Ukraine thousands of these drones" isn't fodder for casual remarks.
2. Ukraine has about twenty of these and their generals want to make best use of them. They are fairly big targets (20+ feet long) and, though fast, can be detected fairly easily. Russia has gamed their military to try to come up with best defenses for them. Still, they are pretty effective.
3. A time not long ago, Ukraine ordered several more drones from Turkey, which to my knowledge have not yet been delivered to Ukrainian forces. This indicates that these hi-tech devices are not just whipped off the assembly lines like McDonald hamburgers. ... and sure as he!l aren't flippantly cheap.
4. There has been some evidence from the previous eastern Ukrainian breakaway province uprisings (There really are two provinces which want out of Ukraine even though the mass of the country hates Russia --- this is where the Putin stupidity of "they'll welcome us" comes from), that small drones were being made almost in a garage amateur-tech mode for purposes of military intelligence gathering by and for the Ukraine military. To my knowledge these smaller things (about 3-5 foot long) have no firepower offensive abilities.

Drones are very effective versus land invasions, but are NOT easy to multiply like rabbits either technologically nor economically.

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

Is there any realistic scenario where Ukraine, without significant foreign military aid or involvement, wins this and sends Russia packing? I really want to believe so, bur I can't see it happening.

There's already been significant foreign involvement (economically), so your scenario is already not possible.

But if you're asking if Ukraine can beat USSR 1v1...no way in hell. Lol

 

[calvegas04]

Is there any realistic scenario where Ukraine, without significant foreign military aid or involvement, wins this and sends Russia packing? I really want to believe so, bur I can't see it happening.

Best option for Ukraine is for this to go on for over a couple months or longer and the economic impact to russia is so great they overthrow putin.

 

[irishog77]

Is there any realistic scenario where Ukraine, without significant foreign military aid or involvement, wins this and sends Russia packing? I really want to believe so, bur I can't see it happening.

Unfortunately, no. It's just a matter of when.

And it sure looks like significant military aid or involvement isn't coming from anybody. At least anytime soon.

This is a lot of what is so confusing about the sanctions. First, our intelligence team told us the sanctions were, in fact, to deter an invasion. But biden told us they were not intended to do that. But russia did invade. While the sanctions may end up being severe for russia, they will take time. So once the intended result of the sanctions set it, then what? Is putin supposed to just withdraw from Ukraine, hand back the land to the Ukranian people, pay to rebuild the country (with money they don't have, or won't have due to the sanctions), then promise to never do it again?

 

[HouseofPain]

Fact:
Ukraine once possessed the world’s third-largest arsenal of nuclear weapons following the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991.

However, the sovereign nation signed the Budapest Memorandum in 1994 in which Russia, Britain and the U.S. committed to refrain from attacking Ukraine in exchange for the country turning over its nuclear arsenal to Russia to be dismantled.

Way to back up the written agreements Russia, UK and America!!!

 

[phillyirish]

Is there any realistic scenario where Ukraine, without significant foreign military aid or involvement, wins this and sends Russia packing? I really want to believe so, bur I can't see it happening.

This scenario doesn’t exist because Ukraine is already getting significant military aid.

But yes it’s entirely possible. We’re getting differing reports on what’s happening, depending on if they’re coming from Russia, Ukraine or US intelligence. Of the 3, obviously the US reports are the most reliable if they come from trusted sources. Truth is it’s hard to see what is actually happening on the fronts as even video and pictures popping up are proving to be fakes or recycled from previous conflicts.

But the economic reports are much more reliable. Russia’s ruble is nose diving and their stock exchange is on lockdown. Two serious red flags that are not sustainable for the immediate future let alone the long run. While Ukraine basically has a blank check from the international community.

 

[irishog77]

Best option for Ukraine is for this to go on for over a couple months or longer and the economic impact to russia is so great they overthrow putin.

Seems like it.

Unfortunately, that's a pretty shitty lot in life for the Ukrainian people. And the fact that there seems to be no support, right now, of the russian people to overthrow putin. And then there's a lot of chaos to follow from that.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

It really just shows you how far and away the United States is compared to the rest of the world. Russia struggles mightily to invade its neighbor, when the United Stars had no issue putting almost an equal number of troops (110,000 peak strength) comfortably into a landlocked country on the other side of the world in Afghanistan.

While continuing to ramp up our presence in Afghanistan, we also chose to simultaneously invade Iraq, where we: (1) rolled over their entire military in a matter of weeks; (2) occupied the country for 8 years (with troop presence peaking at 170,000 in 2007); and (3) then withdrew in 2011. Despite those campaigns being a massive waste of money, human life, and clout, our economy and way of life were barely affected.

Our ability to wage conventional wars is staggering. America is, by far, the most powerful empire the world has ever seen. People wringing their hands over China, Russia, North Korea and Iran really have no concept of how much weaker our opponents are.

 

[Old Man Mike]

That is why the inside Pentagon analysts refer to the US's Naval carried air and marine strike capabilities as "The Leviathan."