2016 Presidential Horse Race

[Cackalacky]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

Really good look at performance and targets needed to win the nomination.

Does not have yesterdays results though.

 

[kmoose]

Democrats should be ashamed of their party(Republicans should, too, but for other reasons). The Democratic Party always wants to paint itself as the "Party of the People"; the party that cares more about Main Street than Wall Street, the party that looks out for the little guy. If you were able to look up the phrase "bought and paid for politician" in the dictionary, there would likely be a picture of Hillary Clinton there.

 

[Ndaccountant]

If this comes down to Hillary versus Trump, it will be a very sad day for America.

 

[Blaise]

????????

Meant to be Rubio

 

[GoIrish41]

Democrats should be ashamed of their party(Republicans should, too, but for other reasons). The Democratic Party always wants to paint itself as the "Party of the People"; the party that cares more about Main Street than Wall Street, the party that looks out for the little guy. If you were able to look up the phrase "bought and paid for politician" in the dictionary, there would likely be a picture of Hillary Clinton there.

I think there would need to be a yearbook-like spread with pictures of players on both sides of the aisle. Hillary plays the game just like most other politicians in Washington. That's what is screwed up most about our politics. Public financing of elections!

 

[IrishJayhawk]

I think there would need to be a yearbook-like spread with pictures of players on both sides of the aisle. Hillary plays the game just like most other politicians in Washington. That's what is screwed up most about our politics. Public financing of elections!

^This

I still haven't seen anyone effectively articulate how Hillary is worse than anyone else (save for Bernie, I'll admit).

Buster makes some good points about the Clintons. They triangulate and end up weakening the progressive movement a bit because they embrace conservative positions. But that should make conservatives love her.

 

[Blaise]

I have had a chance to work move to Australia for my work... This seems like the best time to leave... Hilary vs Trump... I want to throw up

 

[IrishLax]

FWIW, it makes no sense to proclaim Trump "unstoppable" when he could easily still end up with less than 50% of the delegates.

 

[connor_in]

 

[IrishLax]

Didn't you say you voted for Rubio today? Or were you Kasich?

If it's Rubio/Clinton, I'll freaking volunteer for Rubio.

I don't know if I explicitly said who I voted for, but yeah it was Rubio. I voted for him because he was the most plausible anti-Trump candidate and least likely to do harm to the United States. I think both Rubio and Clinton have weaknesses and strengths (albeit different ones) so I wouldn't really care who wins between those two.

 

[Rack Em]

I don't know if I explicitly said who I voted for, but yeah it was Rubio. I voted for him because he was the most plausible anti-Trump candidate and least likely to do harm to the United States. I think both Rubio and Clinton have weaknesses and strengths (albeit different ones) so I wouldn't really care who wins between those two.

They are much the same on foreign policy - hawkish. One would approve spending cuts passed through Congress, the other wouldn't. But it's not like those spending cuts would be anything more than a CBO rounding error.

#RandyforRand

 

[GoldenDomer]

We have failed... ashamed of both sides today.

 

[wizards8507]

FWIW, it makes no sense to proclaim Trump "unstoppable" when he could easily still end up with less than 50% of the delegates.

Which is so goddamn frustrating because the plausibility of beating Trump in the convention might be what prevents us from beating Trump in the delegate count in the first place. Cruz has the most plausible argument that he can beat Trump in a head-to-head race. That's just a fact, regardless of what you think of the guy. That means he's not going anywhere. Rubio thinks he can stick around until the convention and beat Trump there, assuming Trump goes in with less than 50% of the delegates. So Rubio doesn't actually have any incentive to beat Trump, just keep Trump off of 50%. It's going to bite him, the party, and the country in the ass when we get to winner-take-all states.

 

[irishfan]

FWIW, it makes no sense to proclaim Trump "unstoppable" when he could easily still end up with less than 50% of the delegates.

If he ends up with the most delegates, but still short of 1,237....he'll still be "unstoppable." I think he'd run 3rd Party if there's a brokered convention where he feels he got the raw end of the deal. The only way he drops out before then IMO is if he finally implodes with some sort of controversy he can't talk his way out of, or one of Cruz/Rubio dropping out ASAP. I could see him imploding. I don't see one of those two dropping out soon.

I have a hard time envisioning an election in my head where Trump isn't either the RNC nominee or running a 3rd party campaign.

 

[connor_in]

 

[IrishLax]

If he ends up with the most delegates, but still short of 1,237....he'll still be "unstoppable." I think he'd run 3rd Party if there's a brokered convention where he feels he got the raw end of the deal. The only way he drops out before then IMO is if he finally implodes with some sort of controversy he can't talk his way out of, or one of Cruz/Rubio dropping out ASAP. I could see him imploding. I don't see one of those two dropping out soon.

I have a hard time envisioning an election in my head where Trump isn't either the RNC nominee or running a 3rd party campaign.

He did sign a pledge not to run as a 3rd party candidate, but yeah... I don't put much weight on that.

 

[RDU Irish]

I've decided I wouldn't trust Cruz alone with my children - creep show. Hillary I would not trust alone with my wallet. In electing a president, they aren't alone with my children so better to hire the creep you might be able to trust with money than the guaranteed crook.

Trump - I thought looked more reasonable at his rally, what little bit I caught of it. Took questions well and wasn't a complete monkey banging on the cage.

 

[wizards8507]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">"Oh no, I've made a YUGE mistake..." <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/supertuesday?src=hash">#supertuesday</a> <a href="https://t.co/8MTuvHyuWY">https://t.co/8MTuvHyuWY</a></p>— Zadi Diaz (@Zadi) <a href="https://twitter.com/Zadi/status/704863080879153152">March 2, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Wild Bill]

If he ends up with the most delegates, but still short of 1,237....he'll still be "unstoppable." I think he'd run 3rd Party if there's a brokered convention where he feels he got the raw end of the deal. The only way he drops out before then IMO is if he finally implodes with some sort of controversy he can't talk his way out of, or one of Cruz/Rubio dropping out ASAP. I could see him imploding. I don't see one of those two dropping out soon.

I have a hard time envisioning an election in my head where Trump isn't either the RNC nominee or running a 3rd party campaign.

He can talk his way out of anything b/c his supporters don't really give a fuck about the answer.

The only way he drops out is if he has an oh shit, I don't want this job moment. I doubt it happens but if it does, I can see him dropping out for "medical reasons" and backing Cruz (or any other candidate that has a shot...except rubio...he's just too nasty.

 

[irishfan]

He did sign a pledge not to run as a 3rd party candidate, but yeah... I don't put much weight on that.

Neither do I. He keeps complaining about not being treated "fairly." He'll screw over the RNC and not think twice about it if they nominate someone with less delegates. They're in a pretty crappy spot if there's a brokered convention....I don't see why anyone would want to be the nominee if Trump will go 3rd party and steal votes. Cruz might run for fun, but I don't see why Rubio or Kasich would run if Trump could nab 20-30% of the Republican base.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Why do people think the USA needs "radical change"? Who here doesn't have a good job and the ability to take care of the family? Who here is hurting for something?

I'd take Hillary all day, every day over Trump who potentially put us into WWIII or wreck social/economic policy because he's an inexperienced wild card.

The status quo does not suck, as much as activists and cherry picked stats tell you it does.

This is like a Roman aedificator complaining in 300 AD that he doesn't understand why the plebeians in the outer provinces are getting nervous about security because everything seems fine in the capitol. Of course it seems like that to you, because you've got a high-paying job in the recession-proof DC area. But the Americans supporting Trump have actually seen their life prospects decline within the last few decades. That's unprecedented in the modern US.

As Deneen argues in an article I shared here yesterday, economic growth is the bribe that Stratification offers to Equality. Once large segments of our citizenry stop feeling upwardly mobile, everything falls apart.

 

[wizards8507]

Ballgame. 300 was Trumps magic number heading into tonight.

300 was not Trump's magic number for total inception-to-date. Trump was supposed to get 300 just last night.

 

[Wild Bill]

^This

I still haven't seen anyone effectively articulate how Hillary is worse than anyone else (save for Bernie, I'll admit).

Buster makes some good points about the Clintons. They triangulate and end up weakening the progressive movement a bit because they embrace conservative positions. But that should make conservatives love her.

The right hates her and she can't be trusted. All politicians lie. We commonly accept lies that are used to attack opponents and gain support for ideas but we're not as inclined to accept lies that are purely for someone's own self interest (email scandal specifically).

The right is irrelevant, though, b/c she was never getting their vote.

From the perspective of the left, I think it's more to do with her policy flips (as other posters have commented) and her lack of charisma.

Personally, I don't find all policy flips troubling. I think it's normal to consider and re-consider social issues over time and come to a different conclusion. Life experiences tend to change opinions over time. The problem she faces is that she had a lot of positions that are now frowned upon by progressives. IMO, she doesn't do a great job of explaining her position changes and lefties, for the same reason as the people on the right, do not trust her answers.

Not relevant to your question but I think lack of charisma is her biggest issue. It would go a long way in swaying her opposition on the left and gaining the independent vote. Voters look past flaws if you're likable. Obama is a good example of this. Initially he didn't have the support of older democrats and blue dog democrats but he used his charisma to sway them. He has "it", whatever "it" is, and she doesn't. Unfortunately for her, you can't buy charisma.

 

[IrishLax]

This is like a Roman aedificator complaining in 300 AD that he doesn't understand why the plebeians in the outer provinces are getting nervous about security because everything seems fine in the capitol. Of course it seems like that to you, because you've got a high-paying job in the recession-proof DC area. But the Americans supporting Trump have actually seen their life prospects decline within the last few decades. That's unprecedented in the modern US.

As Deneen argues in an article I shared here yesterday, economic growth is the bribe that Stratification offers to Equality. Once large segments of our citizenry stop feeling upwardly mobile, everything falls apart.

But I asked the question honestly... who on here (as in people in this thread) looks around at their life right now and thinks "This is shit! And it's all the Government's fault!"

Warren Buffet wrote something the other day on this very topic basically saying that the doom and gloom is nothing but BS. It's a mirage put forth by people who have a vested interest in people being dissatisfied/mad and believing that only they can fix the problem. And he made a lot of sense.

 

[wizards8507]

But I asked the question honestly... who on here (as in people in this thread) looks around at their life right now and thinks "This is shit! And it's all the Government's fault!"

Warren Buffet wrote something the other day on this very topic basically saying that the doom and gloom is nothing but BS. It's a mirage put forth by people who have a vested interest in people being dissatisfied/mad and believing that only they can fix the problem. And he made a lot of sense.

Yup. Whether it's blaming Bush or blaming Obama, I'm sick and tired of people blaming the government for all of their ills. Nut up and do something about it. The more you blame other people, the less you're inclined to go out and kill it for yourself.

 

[pkt77242]

300 was not Trump's magic number for total inception-to-date. Trump was supposed to get 300 just last night.

Not according to 538, he was suppose to be at 297 by the end of last night (total and he is over that).

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/

 

[wizards8507]

Glenn Beck throwing out the conservative dream team to stop Trump:

Cruz / Rubio ticket
Mike Lee for SCOTUS
Rand Paul for Secretary of the Treasury
Ben Carson for Marco Rubio's Florida Senate seat

Not according to 538, he was suppose to be at 297 by the end of last night (total and he is over that).

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/

Fair enough. The delegate math is all over the place. I haven't seen a consistent number from two outlets.

 

[gkIrish]

But I asked the question honestly... who on here (as in people in this thread) looks around at their life right now and thinks "This is shit! And it's all the Government's fault!"

Warren Buffet wrote something the other day on this very topic basically saying that the doom and gloom is nothing but BS. It's a mirage put forth by people who have a vested interest in people being dissatisfied/mad and believing that only they can fix the problem. And he made a lot of sense.

We aren't the people voting for Trump.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

But I asked the question honestly... who on here (as in people in this thread) looks around at their life right now and thinks "This is shit! And it's all the Government's fault!"

IE isn't a representative slice of America. A large % of our posters graduated from an elite university, and have accordingly reaped the benefits of that privilege.

Warren Buffet wrote something the other day on this very topic basically saying that the doom and gloom is nothing but BS. It's a mirage put forth by people who have a vested interest in people being dissatisfied/mad and believing that only they can fix the problem. And he made a lot of sense.

It's all relative. Again, getting back to that Deneen article, democracies prioritize equality and capitalism produces economic stratification; so our political economy since the Industrial Revolution has been inherently unstable. Broadly shared economic growth is the only thing that has allowed us to put off reckoning for that contradiction; but there are no more easy ways to goose the economy that will make Trump supporters feel like it's worth their while to keep supporting the status quo.

Lots of these people grew up in homes led by a father who held a solid manufacturing job. But elites from both parties shipped those jobs overseas, and now they can't get anything in their home towns except maybe a dead-end retail job making minimum wage. They feel like they've been ignored (if not betrayed) by both Democrats and Republicans for decades, so there's no reason not to blow the system up. No one's offering them anything better.

Yup. Whether it's blaming Bush or blaming Obama, I'm sick and tired of people blaming the government for all of their ills. Nut up and do something about it. The more you blame other people, the less you're inclined to go out and kill it for yourself.

That's easy to say with the advantages you had growing up, wizards.

 

[NDRock]

But I asked the question honestly... who on here (as in people in this thread) looks around at their life right now and thinks "This is shit! And it's all the Government's fault!"

Warren Buffet wrote something the other day on this very topic basically saying that the doom and gloom is nothing but BS. It's a mirage put forth by people who have a vested interest in people being dissatisfied/mad and believing that only they can fix the problem. And he made a lot of sense.

I think the partisan media/internet causes some of this. I see it at work all the time. Guys watch FOX news all the time and read right wing blogs/websites describing how Obama is destroying the county. It affects their mood and view point. The same thing happened during Bush's terms with the liberal parts of the medial playing the same role. I think it gets worse and worse all the time though.

It seemed like before the internet, people watched the evening news and read newspapers/magazines to get their political information. Now, it's in your face at all times.

I've noticed the same thing with sports. Growing up I was obviously a ND fan. I would root hard for ND whenever they played teams like Michigan and Penn State but I also respected those teams. They were also midwest teams with tradition and cool uniforms. I would root for those teams often when they played other opponents. Now with the internet and being on ND sites a lot, I feel like I'm supposed to hate teams like Michigan. I'm supposed to be pissed off that Fielding Yost blackballed ND 80 years ago or because of something Bo said in the 80s. I've even talked shit about Yost to my Michigan fans. I guess I just miss not knowing every damn thing and just watching the games on Saturday. Shit, now I'm reminissing about the old days, guess I'll vote Trump and try to make this place great again.