The Jameis Winston Investigation Thread

The Jameis Winston Investigation Thread

  • Yes

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • No

    Votes: 77 47.8%
  • a:2:{i:2894;a:5:{s:12:"polloptionid";i:2894;s:6:"nodeid";s:7:"2882262";s:5:"title";s:3:"Yes";s:5:"vo

    Votes: 84 52.2%

  • Total voters
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IrishSteelhead

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So where I'm getting at with all this is:

Would you rather:

A) Have a 38% chance to beat FSU without Jameis while there being a very small risk we get blown out OR

B) 20% chance to beat FSU with Jameis while also taking a chance that we get blown out 50% of the time.

I'll take A every time. Again, you may not agree with the odds but I'm using the most objective measure available to me.


It's that all in moment at this point. They are going to field their best team IMO, and for better or worse, we better have a hearty lunch packed. I'm excited to see how close/far this team really is. The Michigan States/Stanfords of the CFB world are always nice to beat, but this is big game hunting at its finest. This is hunting grizzly with a homemade recurve bow and stone arrowheads. I can't wait.
 
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koonja

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Your ESPN worship gets pretty old, too.

I literally don't watch and complain as much as the next post about them, so I have no idea what you're talking about.

I was simply using the most 'objective' win/loss probability that was readily available rather than tossing out guesstimates.

You must have me confused with another poster because I've been the model of consistency in my dislike for ESPN. Just ask Wizards.
 
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gkIrish

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I literally don't watch and complain as much as the next post about them, so I have no idea what you're talking about.

I was simply using the most 'objective' win/loss probability that was readily available rather than tossing out guesstimates.

Where are you getting that I love ESPN from? I've been the model of consistency in my dislike for them.

If I had a dime for every time you mentioned something Colin Cowherd said or tweet you sent to SVP I'd be rich. Investing so much time in something you claim to dislike so much is contradictory.

As far as objectivity goes, ESPN's predictor isn't very trustworthy because their ultimate goal as a company is to drive up ratings. So it wouldn't look very good if their predictor said we have a 15% chance to win because some people might not think tuning into ABC is worth it.

Vegas odds are the ultimate "objective" predictor. The numbers are based entirely off what the public thinks as a whole. There are a few occasions where they shift the spreads in a weird way to risk making more money but usually they go for the most likely scenario. I wasn't guesstimating anything. The numbers calculate out very scientifically. I was just being generous to appease people like you.
 
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koonja

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If I had a dime for every time you mentioned something Colin Cowherd said or tweet you sent to SVP I'd be rich. Investing so much time in something you claim to dislike so much is contradictory.

As far as objectivity goes, ESPN's predictor isn't very trustworthy because their ultimate goal as a company is to drive up ratings.
So it wouldn't look very good if their predictor said we have a 15% chance to win because some people might not think tuning into ABC is worth it.

Vegas odds are the ultimate "objective" predictor. There are a few occasions where they shift the spreads in a weird way to make more money but usually they go for the most likely scenario. I wasn't guesstimating anything. The numbers calculate out very scientifically. I was just being generous to appease people like you.

So following Cowerd on twitter means I've investing tons of time? And I haven't followed SVP on twitter in about a year. You're reaching... Like I said, I don't watch their shows. If I'm traveling (which my daily commute is like 6 minutes one way) it's either gangster rap or Mike and Mike in the mornings.

On average, I'd say I tune into about 12 minutes of ESPN radio per week and I rarely visit their website unless it's to look up box scores. And it's not a love for ESPN. If Mike and Mike moved to Fox, my car radio would be adjusted accordingly.

That's fine if they're not accurate, IDK what goes into them. Like I said, it was the most readily available % and I didn't want to throw guesses out and didn't have time to analyze the vegas odds.

But coloring me as an ESPN lover is dead wrong. Those are fighting words and I don't want to argue with you.
 
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ickythump1225

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So where I'm getting at with all this is:

Would you rather:

A) Have a 38% chance to beat FSU without Jameis while there being a very small risk we get blown out OR

B) 20% chance to beat FSU with Jameis while also taking a chance that we get blown out 50% of the time.

I'll take A every time. Again, you may not agree with the odds but I'm using the most objective measure available to me.
Just 38% without Jameis? Aren't they without their back up QB? That number should be a lot higher.
 

ickythump1225

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Have you Jameis's numbers when teams try to blitz him? He picks them apart. The wiser move would be to stunt our d linemen as much as possible, put Jaylon on that pass-catching machine of a TE they have, and disguise our coverages as much as possible. I would hope we show blitz far more than we actually blitz.
Got this from Warchant, JW's numbers against the blitz the last two years:
When Pressured - Last 2 Seasons

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 2013 ~~~~ 2014
Comp pct ~~~~~ 60.4%* ~~ 26.7%
Yds per att ~~ 9.8* ~~~~ 1.9
TD-Int ~~~~~~~ 8-2 ~~~~~ 0-2
20+ yd comp ~~ 13* ~~~~~ 0

It seems as though he's regressed facing blitzes this season.
 

Irish YJ

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This arrived today!! Can't wait to wear to the office on Friday!!!

catholics-vs-criminoles.png
 

Irish YJ

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Dude...did you bring enough for the whole class here on IE?

LOL. I did however offer to buy a few for SEC fans and a few FSU fans in the office. I have a bet with one of my admins, and FSU fan. She will were if ND wins LOL. Good to be the boss.
 

phgreek

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Have you Jameis's numbers when teams try to blitz him? He picks them apart. The wiser move would be to stunt our d linemen as much as possible, put Jaylon on that pass-catching machine of a TE they have, and disguise our coverages as much as possible. I would hope we show blitz far more than we actually blitz.

Agreed...

load the LOS with guys jumping around and then stunt and cover...I figure it'd take him most of the 1st quarter to figure out ND wasn't coming...then hit him with something from his back side with a little delay...and turn his lights OUT!...Rinse and repeat....
 

Circa

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I think ND's chances of beating FSU with Winston are higher than 10%. I would also suggest that his absence makes a wider swing in the odds because the backup is injured. Jameis will be replaced with a third stringer who has seen no game action and (if the suspension came down this week) basically no time with the first team offense. So I expect it would also handicap their play calling significantly.

Put me in the camp that doesn't see 2014 FSU as being on par with the 2013 version. FSU is currently right next to ND in the F/+ rankings (both just outside the top 10) from Football Outsiders.

EDIT: I might as well play the odds game

A) Jameis plays and we get blown out (20%)
B) Jameis plays and we lose close (40%)
C) Jameis plays and we win (30%)


C) Jameis does not play and we get blown out (5%)
D) Jameis does not play and we lose close (35%)
E) Jameis does not play and we win (60%)


The fact that we haven't seen this fact, next to the 9 turnovers EG has committed in the last 3 games, is extremely odd. Whom can we blame this on?
 

BobD

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How far do you think he's sunk in a potential NFL draft?
 

IrishLax

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How far do you think he's sunk in a potential NFL draft?

He's teetering on falling out of the first round, IMO. No sane GM wants to gamble their job on taking him with a top 10 pick and watching him flame out.
 

MNIrishman

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Brennan: Florida State gives way to 'Jameis State'

When does the FSU administration start to feel the pressure to suspend him? We know that Fisher won't do it.

Can't believe how many people are supporting Jameis State in the comments of that article. There are a LOT of fishy things here. It's not one thing. It's one thing after another wrapped in a narrative of police ignorance and failure.
 

T Town Tommy

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Got this from Warchant, JW's numbers against the blitz the last two years:
When Pressured - Last 2 Seasons

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 2013 ~~~~ 2014
Comp pct ~~~~~ 60.4%* ~~ 26.7%
Yds per att ~~ 9.8* ~~~~ 1.9
TD-Int ~~~~~~~ 8-2 ~~~~~ 0-2
20+ yd comp ~~ 13* ~~~~~ 0

It seems as though he's regressed facing blitzes this season.

May want to check those numbers. He is completing around 67% of his passes when blitzed in 2014. The YPC average is down somewhat from his 2013 numbers against the blitz indicating that he is more willing to take the shorter pass than he was last year. Probably due to his OL not being as good as last year and the fact that he is missing a few targets from last year as well.

Bottom line, if the Irish blitz JW, they will lose the game. Greyhammer's analysis a little further back in the thread is probably a better option for BVG's defense.
 

Wild Bill

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May want to check those numbers. He is completing around 67% of his passes when blitzed in 2014. The YPC average is down somewhat from his 2013 numbers against the blitz indicating that he is more willing to take the shorter pass than he was last year. Probably due to his OL not being as good as last year and the fact that he is missing a few targets from last year as well.

Bottom line, if the Irish blitz JW, they will lose the game. Greyhammer's analysis a little further back in the thread is probably a better option for BVG's defense.

I'm not sure we can consistently pressure him with four. I agree, we can't blitz all day but we need to manufacture some pressure with the blitz to rattle him. Bvg is bringing some heat. Hope he disguises it well and dials it up at the right time.
 

NDdomer2

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May want to check those numbers. He is completing around 67% of his passes when blitzed in 2014. The YPC average is down somewhat from his 2013 numbers against the blitz indicating that he is more willing to take the shorter pass than he was last year. Probably due to his OL not being as good as last year and the fact that he is missing a few targets from last year as well.

Bottom line, if the Irish blitz JW, they will lose the game. Greyhammer's analysis a little further back in the thread is probably a better option for BVG's defense.

Bingo. Obviously ND/bvg will have to pick their spots, but I'd rather force long drives by keepings things in front of us and staying out of bad matchups.
 

T Town Tommy

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I'm not sure we can consistently pressure him with four. I agree, we can't blitz all day but we need to manufacture some pressure with the blitz to rattle him. Bvg is bringing some heat. Hope he disguises it well and dials it up at the right time.

Gonna be tough if the front four isn't somewhat effective. I agree that BVG will blitz. The worry for me would be that he he has to blitz. And that's when crab boy gets dangerous.
 

BleedBlueGold

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How far do you think he's sunk in a potential NFL draft?

He's teetering on falling out of the first round, IMO. No sane GM wants to gamble their job on taking him with a top 10 pick and watching him flame out.

Question: After the OSU fiasco, was there not a NFL rule implemented that stated suspended players may not enter the draft? Isn't that why Pryor went undrafted and had to get into the League via the supplemental draft? If so, then it's highly possible that FSU puts off this hearing/verdict until after the season (so they get theirs, of course) and then suspends/expells him. Doing this may make him ineligible for the draft (if my memory serves me correctly) and he'll be forced to make a choice. Perhaps I'm way off here. I didn't take the time to research it. Figured someone would know the ins and outs of this.

Edit: I remember Pryor had to sit the season at OSU so he opted to leave and sit 5 games in the NFL. I just can't recall the specifics as to why he wasn't drafted in the official NFL Draft. Is it because he withdrew from OSU for the year prior to the draft?
 
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koonja

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I'm hoping for a lot of 4 man rushes with twists. Gotta confuse that new center they have. He was OK vs. Syracuse but hardly great. I think Jones and/or a DE stunting inside can have success on him.
 
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