The Jameis Winston Investigation Thread

[tussin]

Out of curiosity, let's the say the game was played once with Jameis and once without. Would you guys agree that this is a fair allocation of the odds each of these potential outcomes is the result? Let's assume we aren't going to blow out FSU under either scenario.

A) Jameis plays and we get blown out (45%)
B) Jameis plays and we lose close (45%)
C) Jameis plays and we win (10%)


C) Jameis does not play and we get blown out (10%)
D) Jameis does not play and we lose close (60%)
E) Jameis does not play and we win (30%)

I'd say it's a 25% chance of a win with Jameis and a 50+% chance of a win without him. Without Jameis, I'd have it as a pick-em or ND slight favorite.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Out of curiosity, let's the say the game was played once with Jameis and once without. Would you guys agree that this is a fair allocation of the odds each of these potential outcomes is the result? Let's assume we aren't going to blow out FSU under either scenario.

A) Jameis plays and we get blown out (45%)
B) Jameis plays and we lose close (45%)
C) Jameis plays and we win (10%)


C) Jameis does not play and we get blown out (10%)
D) Jameis does not play and we lose close (60%)
E) Jameis does not play and we win (30%)

If Jameis does not play, I think there's a less than 10% chance ND gets blown out. It's rumored that if Vegas re-opened the lines w/o Jamies, FSU would only be a 3-point favorite. I would move 5% of those odds to Jameis not playing and ND winning. I would also probably decrease the Jameis not playing and ND losing close odds by 5-10%. I honestly think if Jameis doesn't play, this game becomes a 50/50 toss up. Both teams are extremely talented on both sides of the ball. Jameis is the x-factor for FSU. Without him, it's hard to say. Just my opinion.

 

[woolybug25]

I'd say it's a 25% chance of a win with Jameis and a 50+% chance of a win without him. Without Jameis, I'd have it as a pick-em or ND slight favorite.

I read that if Winston sat, Vegas would have them as a 3.5 point favorite. Since the home team gets roughly 3 points, that means Vegas would see it as a toss up too.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Out of curiosity, let's the say the game was played once with Jameis and once without. Would you guys agree that this is a fair allocation of the odds each of these potential outcomes is the result? Let's assume we aren't going to blow out FSU under either scenario.

A) Jameis plays and we get blown out (45%)
B) Jameis plays and we lose close (45%)
C) Jameis plays and we win (10%)


C) Jameis does not play and we get blown out (10%)
D) Jameis does not play and we lose close (60%)
E) Jameis does not play and we win (30%)

I think ND's chances of beating FSU with Winston are higher than 10%. I would also suggest that his absence makes a wider swing in the odds because the backup is injured. Jameis will be replaced with a third stringer who has seen no game action and (if the suspension came down this week) basically no time with the first team offense. So I expect it would also handicap their play calling significantly.

Put me in the camp that doesn't see 2014 FSU as being on par with the 2013 version. FSU is currently right next to ND in the F/+ rankings (both just outside the top 10) from Football Outsiders.

EDIT: I might as well play the odds game

A) Jameis plays and we get blown out (20%)
B) Jameis plays and we lose close (40%)
C) Jameis plays and we win (30%)


C) Jameis does not play and we get blown out (5%)
D) Jameis does not play and we lose close (35%)
E) Jameis does not play and we win (60%)

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Out of curiosity, let's the say the game was played once with Jameis and once without. Would you guys agree that this is a fair allocation of the odds each of these potential outcomes is the result? Let's assume we aren't going to blow out FSU under either scenario.

A) Jameis plays and we get blown out (45%)
B) Jameis plays and we lose close (45%)
C) Jameis plays and we win (10%)


C) Jameis does not play and we get blown out (10%)
D) Jameis does not play and we lose close (60%)
E) Jameis does not play and we win (30%)

I'd probably put it at 25/40/35 with Winston, and 5/20/75 without. McGuire is injured (broken hand), so if Winston can't go, FSU will have to field a QB who's never taken a live snap before. Odds of them beating us under those circumstances are very low.

Edit: Pops beat me to it.

 

[woolybug25]

I think ND's chances of beating FSU with Winston are higher than 10%. I would also suggest that his absence makes a wider swing in the odds because the backup is injured. Jameis will be replaced with a third stringer who has seen no game action and (if the suspension came down this week) basically no time with the first team offense. So I expect it would also handicap their play calling significantly.

Put me in the camp that doesn't see 2014 FSU as being on par with the 2013 version. FSU is currently right next to ND in the F/+ rankings (both just outside the top 10) from Football Outsiders.

WOW. I had no idea about that.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Edit: With Jameis, I have my doubts. I think ND's defense may struggle to defend a legitimate offense once again. Only this time, I don't see ND's offense putting up enough points to overcome the deficit. The line prior to Vegas taking the game off the board was FSU at -10.5. I think that's reasonable.

IF everyone on ND brings an A+ game, I think this game is winnable w/ Winston playing. It's just highly unlikely given the product on the field the last few weeks in terms of turnovers and missed tackles.

 

[tussin]

I read that if Winston sat, Vegas would have them as a 3.5 point favorite. Since the home team gets roughly 3 points, that means Vegas would see it as a toss up too.

The other data point I'd point to is that ND has been pretty strong against the spread this year (I believe 4-2), which suggests Vegas and the public are underselling ND.

All of this is to say, without Winston, I see this game as a toss-up at worst.

 

[IRISH in MT]

After we win, I want Kelly to go to mid-field and sucker punch Jimbo in the mouth.

Fisher reminds me of a greasy, sleezy, used car salesman for some reason. On par with Urban.

 

[irishog77]

After we win, I want Kelly to go to mid-field and sucker punch Jimbo in the mouth.

Probably the only time I've ever agreed with you :smilewink:

 

[BleedBlueGold]

WOW. I had no idea about that.

I'm not sure the details, but they talked about it during the FSU/Syracuse game. I think it's a major story that is being kept on the back burner until they know what's going to happen with Jameis. If he sits, expect the media to run w/ this FSU playing a third string QB story. Hell, they were ready to crown Winston's backup w/ his comeback win against Clemson...

 

[gkIrish]

I'll address some posts when I get back from gym. Keep in mind the current spread is double digits so any percentage of us winning with JW over 15% is contrary to what professionals think.

 

[woolybug25]

I'll address some posts when I get back from gym. Keep in mind the current spread is double digits so any percentage of us winning with JW over 15% is contrary to what professionals think.

I'll be interested in how the math works on this. I cant wrap my head around a 10.5 pt hedge is worth an 85% win ratio.

Pump it up, GK.

 

[GoIrish41]

Probably the only time I've ever agreed with you :smilewink:

How does it feel to finally be right about something?

 

[koonja]

Out of curiosity, let's the say the game was played once with Jameis and once without. Would you guys agree that this is a fair allocation of the odds each of these potential outcomes is the result? Let's assume we aren't going to blow out FSU under either scenario.

A) Jameis plays and we get blown out (45%)
B) Jameis plays and we lose close (45%)
C) Jameis plays and we win (10%)

C) Jameis does not play and we get blown out (10%)
D) Jameis does not play and we lose close (60%)
E) Jameis does not play and we win (30%)

The pessimism gets old, lol. Hell, even ESPN's FFI (or whatever it is) gives us a 27% chance of winning the game, almost 3 times as likely as your guess.

 

[HoosierMP33]

The more this week moves along, the more I think one thing will hold true..... BVG's boys are going to blitz the crap out of Jameis....They are going to hit him on every friggin' play....they are going to make him kiss the grass more times then he's been paid for an autograph....I think by halftime, BVG's boys will have JW crying out an admission to getting paid for male prostitution, being a Colombian drug lord, as well as being human test subject for further research on genital herpes....If FSU wants to lack the stones in disciplining him, then our guys have will no problem kickin' his @$$ and beating some discipline into him....

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

The first converter I found via google search had a 10 point spread as equivalent to a moneyline of -450/+325. I don't know how to back the vig out on that but my post-it note math tells me the break-even point is around 20% (the favorite has to win just over 80% of the time for that bet to work out and the dog has to win just over 20% of the time for that bet to work out).

 

[woolybug25]

The more this week moves along, the more I think one thing will hold true..... BVG's boys are going to blitz the crap out of Jameis....They are going to hit him on every friggin' play....they are going to make him kiss the grass more times then he's been paid for an autograph....I think by halftime, BVG's boys will have JW crying out an admission to getting paid for male prostitution, being a Colombian drug lord, as well as being human test subject for further research on genital herpes....If FSU wants to lack the stones in disciplining him, then our guys have will no problem kickin' his @$$ and beating some discipline into him....

Key to the game, imo. Especially now that I know his backup is a third stringer. We need to hit him hard and often. Hell, I don't even care if we get some late hits on him early. Screw the penalty, punch this kid in the mouth and see how his entitled @ss responds.

 

[CHIDomer9]

Key to the game, imo. Especially now that I know his backup is a third stringer. We need to hit him hard and often. Hell, I don't even care if we get some late hits on him early. Screw the penalty, punch this kid in the mouth and see how his entitled @ss responds.

First down plays inside the ND 10 yard line this would be fine with me.

 

[greyhammer90]

The more this week moves along, the more I think one thing will hold true..... BVG's boys are going to blitz the crap out of Jameis....They are going to hit him on every friggin' play....they are going to make him kiss the grass more times then he's been paid for an autograph....I think by halftime, BVG's boys will have JW crying out an admission to getting paid for male prostitution, being a Colombian drug lord, as well as being human test subject for further research on genital herpes....If FSU wants to lack the stones in disciplining him, then our guys have will no problem kickin' his @$$ and beating some discipline into him....

Have you Jameis's numbers when teams try to blitz him? He picks them apart. The wiser move would be to stunt our d linemen as much as possible, put Jaylon on that pass-catching machine of a TE they have, and disguise our coverages as much as possible. I would hope we show blitz far more than we actually blitz.

 

[Te'o4Heisman]

Have you Jameis's numbers when teams try to blitz him? He picks them apart. The wiser move would be to stunt our d linemen as much as possible, put Jaylon on that pass-catching machine of a TE they have, and disguise our coverages as much as possible. I would hope we show blitz far more than we actually blitz.

I agree with your point about stunting linemen and using Jaylon to shut down O'Leary, but with all due respect most of the defenses JW has faced this season have not orchestrated the blitz packages that ND shows. BVG is better than most at mixing up looks, disguising blitzes, showing blitz and backing out, and picking his spots to bring the blitz. Our packages are designed to cause confusion and they do just that, I would suspect at a higher clip than nearly all of the defenses that JW has matched up against.

Another thing our defense is extremely good at is timing their blitzes perfectly...they rarely show their hand pre-snap and by design our D lineman slant and stunt very effectively to expose confusion along the OL...we often show blitz to one side, back off, and overload or bring a DB to the side opposite of where the protection rolls. BVG does an excellent job of bringing DBs to create pressure and using different fronts and looks that are difficult for NFL QBs to read, let alone JW. Hogan is definitely no Jameis, but we had Stanford's elite OL completely confused and out of sorts all game long. If we can continue to lock down the run game, we have the ability to force mistakes and create TOs with the blitz package. FSU does not want Winston tucking it and running 15 times this game, I can assure you of that.

Oh and ND also has better athletes on defense than most of the teams FSU has played over the past 2 seasons...

 

[Irish#1]

Just win.

 

[IrishLax]

SIAP: Florida State's Conspiracy of Jameis Winston Silence Has a Lot in Common With Penn State | FOX Sports

Clay Travis at his.... best?

 

[GoldenBoy3]

Sorry guys ive been working crazy around the clock. Shift work sucks! So does it look like JW is going to play this weekend? To be honest I'd rather beat him than chance losing to some scrub QB.

 

[gkIrish]

I'll be interested in how the math works on this. I cant wrap my head around a 10.5 pt hedge is worth an 85% win ratio.

Pump it up, GK.

So Vegas has FSU as -400 or -425 depending where you look.The spread is anywhere between 12 and 13.5. If we use that as an objective measure of our odds, it breaks down as follows:

Vegas gives us an 18-20% chance to win.

Since the spread is ~13, Vegas thinks there's a 50% chance we lose by more than 13 and 50% chance we cover. Since we have 20% to win, it works out to 30% chance to lose by less than 13.

Doing the math GENEROUSLY, that means Vegas believes we have:

20% chance to win
45% chance to lose by >13
35% chance to lose by <13

If you assume Winston is out and the spread goes to 3.5 (which generously equates to -160 on the moneyline), that means the odds change as follows:

Notre Dame Wins: 38%
FSU wins > 3.5: 50%
FSU wins <3.5: 12%

 

[gkIrish]

So where I'm getting at with all this is:

Would you rather:

A) Have a 38% chance to beat FSU without Jameis while there being a very small risk we get blown out OR

B) 20% chance to beat FSU with Jameis while also taking a chance that we get blown out 50% of the time.

I'll take A every time. Again, you may not agree with the odds but I'm using the most objective measure available to me.

 

[GATTACA!]

So where I'm getting at with all this is:

Would you rather:

A) Have a 38% chance to beat FSU without Jameis while there being a very small risk we get blown out OR

B) 20% chance to beat FSU with Jameis while also taking a chance that we get blown out 50% of the time.

I'll take A every time. Again, you may not agree with the odds but I'm using the most objective measure available to me.

The number should be wayyyyyy higher than 38% FSU would be down to a true frosh

 

[gkIrish]

The number should be wayyyyyy higher than 38% FSU would be down to a true frosh

Ok so if it's way higher it makes the decision even easier, right?

 

[GATTACA!]

Ok so if it's way higher it makes the decision even easier, right?

Yes. I wouldn't want Winston to play if the difference was even 1%. ND needs to win this game, if we lose IMO the fashion in which it happens doesn't really matter.

 

[gkIrish]

The pessimism gets old, lol. Hell, even ESPN's FFI (or whatever it is) gives us a 27% chance of winning the game, almost 3 times as likely as your guess.

Your ESPN worship gets pretty old, too.