Superconferences & Realignment

[BobbyMac]

They will do whatever keeps the most donor/ fan/alumni support.

My gut is most willing swallow losing Indy status if the alternate is becoming the Ivy's in football.

We'll see. Usually you can follow the money when it comes to ND but that's not what Swarbrick said would happen if the choice is Pro model vs an academic version.

 

[thekid33]

We'll see. Usually you can follow the money when it comes to ND but that's not what Swarbrick said would happen if the choice is Pro model vs an academic version.

I think Jack's been saying/doing things both publicly and privately to put the pressure on the other power players to not totally nuke college athletics as we know them.

However, it seems like eventually there's going to be a mushroom cloud. Will be interesting to see if what he said has any merit at that point.

Edit: Plus, Jack and Fr. Jenkins will be gone by the time the bomb goes off. So, all new people will be tasked with steering the ship through the post-apocalyptic wasteland.

 

[Irish#1]

I think just the opposite, it's more than earth shattering... it's the apocalypse. The B1G and the SEC are just waiting to pick up the keepers of the disbanded ACC as soon as members figure out how (or commit to & acquire the funds necessary) to unwind the GOR.

If ND ends up in an Academic league it will be a noble gesture and the stadium will be less than 50% full on Saturdays. The trickle down effect will be immense.

 

[BobbyMac]

If ND ends up in an Academic league it will be a noble gesture and the stadium will be less than 50% full on Saturdays. The trickle down effect will be immense.

Half full (and much less) stadiums didn't stop Harvard, Yale, Princeton & Stanford from building endowments that average $40B+

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

wow. Big, if true. I thought Clemson and FSU would be heavily sought after.

EDIT: link isn't showing up, for some reason. B/R reporting that B1G and SEC "Don't have much desire" to add any ACC schools, including the likes of FSU and Clemson

 

[Irish#1]

Half full (and much less) stadiums didn't stop Harvard, Yale, Princeton & Stanford from building endowments that average $40B+

They also don't have the following that ND does.

 

[Irish#1]

wow. Big, if true. I thought Clemson and FSU would be heavily sought after.

EDIT: link isn't showing up, for some reason. B/R reporting that B1G and SEC "Don't have much desire" to add any ACC schools, including the likes of FSU and Clemson

View attachment 3054118

Kind of makes sense. Neither is in a highly populated area and FSU's national draw seems to have pretty much disappeared since the days of Bobby.

 

[NDohio]

Kind of makes sense. Neither is in a highly populated area and FSU's national draw seems to have pretty much disappeared since the days of Bobby.

Right, and they are both in states that already have SEC schools in them. I am sure U of FL and USC don't want the extra competition of other schools in their state being apart of the SEC.

Plus, the geography just doesn't make sense for the B1G.

 

[thekid33]

wow. Big, if true. I thought Clemson and FSU would be heavily sought after.

EDIT: link isn't showing up, for some reason. B/R reporting that B1G and SEC "Don't have much desire" to add any ACC schools, including the likes of FSU and Clemson

View attachment 3054118

I think the media rights issue is what realistically prohibits the SEC from having issues. The Big 10 as well, although they don't strike me as fits for the Big 10. However, maybe the Big 10 truly DGAF about "fit" at this point.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

The B1G wasn't going to take Washington and Oregon because it was a downgrade in the per-school media rights payout. It only happened because Fox stepped in to make up the gap; presumably because they wanted to kill the PAC so it wouldn't take the Apple streaming deal.

It's unclear any of those ACC teams would bring in enough value to meet that goal and I don't believe any third parties are going to bridge the gap for them. ESPN is probably calling the shots on SEC expansion and they're not likely interested in cannibalizing another ESPN conference.

 

[Sea Turtle]

True if big.

 

[TNUtoNotreDame]

Big would take a Florida school and UNC. FSU has a grant of rights problem.

 

[Irish#1]

The B1G wasn't going to take Washington and Oregon because it was a downgrade in the per-school media rights payout. It only happened because Fox stepped in to make up the gap; presumably because they wanted to kill the PAC so it wouldn't take the Apple streaming deal.

It's unclear any of those ACC teams would bring in enough value to meet that goal and I don't believe any third parties are going to bridge the gap for them. ESPN is probably calling the shots on SEC expansion and they're not likely interested in cannibalizing another ESPN conference.

To add to this, ESPN (Disney) are struggling some financially, so there's a good chance Disney wouldn't sign off on throwing extra $$ at the SEC just to expand.

 

[TheProspector]

They also don't have the following that ND does.

ND will be fine as an university without big time college football but the identity of the university would change dramtatically in an Ivy type scenario.

 

[Blazers46]

I had a thought come to me yesterday. It truly came out of nowhere. Yet, when it came to me it came with incredible clarity.

Notre Dame should commit to fully joining the ACC.

Now, before Iprovide my logic, I want to make a few points on my own beliefs up to this point.

1) I have always thought that Notre Dame should remain independent for as long as possible.

2) I still believe that it is possible for Notre Dame to remain an Independent and be successful.

3) If/when the day came that it was no longer possible for Notre Dame to remain Independent I would have preferred (and thought it most likely) that they join the Big 10.

So, why do I now think that Notre Dame should become a full member of the ACC?

It is not because ND needs to join a conference - again, I think that they are well positioned to continue as an Independent and be successful.

It is not because I have any particular love for the ACC. Such a move would almost assuredly stabilize the future of the ACC. You could even say that it would save the ACC. But, I am not really interested in saving the ACC.

No, what I am interested in saving is some shred of college athletics as we've known them to exist. Notre Dame can do that by joining the ACC.

We've just witnessed the real-time disintegration of the Pac-12, one of the most stories conferences in college athletics. The national situation remains unstable. Stanford and Cal are currently homeless. Two prestigious academic institutions that also produce the most Olympic athletes have been told to get lost by the major conferences. Nebraska's AD is talking about future realignment and destabilization. FSU (and probably at least Clemson) would leave the ACC today if they could. Sure, the SEC says they are happy as is. But, don't think for a second they wouldn't take FSU, Clemson and possibly other schools if they were a legitimate option. They just know that they can play the long game and let the ACC implode when their current media deal expires. When that day comes the Big 10 will also poach some ACC schools. The ACC will go the way of the Pac-12 and we will be left with two super conferences (no offense, Big 12). I'm my opinion, that development would be bad for every stakeholder in college athletics, except TV executives.

Again, ND can remain Independent. ND benefits greatly from being Independent. ND will continue to benefit greatly from being Independent.

However, what's best for Notre Dame may not be what's best for college football, or even broader, what's best for college athletics at large. ND has no obligation to save college athletics. No matter what happens in the future with conference realignment, ND is powerful enough that we are going to be fine.

However, imagine a world in which Notre Dame, long scorned and reviled by so many, does exactly what so many have criticized them for not doing and does so at a critical moment in the college sports landscape. And, in the process of doing so, ND has to be recognized as the de facto savior of college athletics. It would be delicious irony.

ND joining the ACC immediately stabilizes the conference's future. Do you think FSU would leave a conference that ND was a full member of? Me either.

Therefore, four power conferences would continue to exist, a much better scenario than the otherwise seemingly inevitable day when the Big 10 and SEC have divided and conquered the college athletics world.

Since ND is in a position of power they can make some demands as part of their otherwise selfless and magnanimous decision.

1) Stanford and Cal are coming too. The ACC would instantly become a national conference, thus allowing ND to continue to play a national schedule.

2) ESPN must immediately renegotiate the conference's media deal to reflect added value of the ND brand.

3) As part of the new deal, all ND games (home and away) will be nationally broadcast.

No

 

[Blazers46]

If ND ends up in an Academic league it will be a noble gesture and the stadium will be less than 50% full on Saturdays. The trickle down effect will be immense.

Standing in the stadium would inevitably be officially against the rules. I have never been yelled at to sit down at any stadium besides ND stadium and it seems to happen at about 50% of the games I attend.

 

[NDRock]

Standing in the stadium would inevitably be officially against the rules. I have never been yelled at to sit down at any stadium besides ND stadium and it seems to happen at about 50% of the games I attend.

Try wearing pants

 

[Irish#1]

ND will be fine as an university without big time college football but the identity of the university would change dramatically in an Ivy type scenario.

No doubt and the nationwide fanbase would pretty much dry up in a short period of time. Those kids and grandkids who were raised ND fans won't be there.

 

[Irish#1]

Ouch!

Pac-12 Commissioner George Kliavkoff brought the schools an ESPN offer of $30 million per school annually for all of their rights. An analysis by the league found that it would be in the mid-$30-million range, and after some negotiations, the 2 sides would settle around $35 million.
However, when the Pac-12 CEO group met to discuss the offer, one of the league presidents had other ideas. The president worked with a professor on his campus to come up with their own estimate of what the 10 schools should get based on their market value: $50 million.
“George and our media consultant were pretty clear there was some risk, but they said, ‘Nope, our numbers show we’re worth this, go ask for it,’” a source with direct knowledge of the negotiations not authorized to speak publicly about them told The Times. “… ESPN did not react very well to it.”

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[NDdomer2]

worth is what someone is willing to pay

 

[ab2cmiller]

My assumption is that the PAC-12 would've never held together even if the the Commissioner pushed back harder in an effort to get the deal approved.

Those that thought that they were worth 50 million annually in the PAC-12 would've bolted for the Big Ten anyhow because they would've felt their voices weren't being heard and the Big Ten could give them 80 million annually.

Interesting story about the behind the scenes negotiations, but I think mostly irrelevant as it relates to the PAC-12 falling apart.

 

[Huntr]

My assumption is that the PAC-12 would've never held together even if the the Commissioner pushed back harder in an effort to get the deal approved.

Those that thought that they were worth 50 million annually in the PAC-12 would've bolted for the Big Ten anyhow because they would've felt their voices weren't being heard and the Big Ten could give them 80 million annually.

Interesting story about the behind the scenes negotiations, but I think mostly irrelevant as it relates to the PAC-12 falling apart.

Sure, it's all going to be blown up in 5 years or so anyway, but they could have stuck together a little longer, which they have repeatedly said they wanted to do. They had multiple opportunities to bury the Big12 and just blew it.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Ouch!

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So....university professor has model that does not apply to the real world.

 

[IrishLax]

Sure, it's all going to be blown up in 5 years or so anyway, but they could have stuck together a little longer, which they have repeatedly said they wanted to do. They had multiple opportunities to bury the Big12 and just blew it.

This is the actual crazy part. The Big 12 is currently comprised of either Tier 3, Tier 4, or former G5 schools. There are zero Tier 1 or Tier 2 football schools. Yet they are "stable" because they have a mediocre TV deal.

If the PAC12 had simply added Texas and Oklahoma when they had the chance they would've been positioned to be at 14 teams and then likely could've added two other high quality teams to get to 16. Then all of this becomes moot because their deal would've been south of the SEC/Big Ten but still competitive to the point where a GOR and conference network would've made them quite stable. Certainly more stable than the ACC. There's no chance that they wouldn't still exist in some fashion -- even with hypothetical defections -- because they would've had the bedrock that they needed to supplant any losses with the "next best" team.

 

[ab2cmiller]

Just me speculating, but I bet this is how it went down....

USC was being pursued by the Big Ten and knew that meant close to 80 million a year
USC was willing to sacrifice some money to keep the PAC-12 together, but dropping all the way down to 30-35 million a year was not going to fly
USC decided that they would stick with the PAC-12 if they could get close to 50 million
USC told a professor to come up with a valuation of 50 million per year. Professor complied.

 

[zelezo vlk]

Just me speculating, but I bet this is how it went down....

USC was being pursued by the Big Ten and knew that meant close to 80 million a year
USC was willing to sacrifice some money to keep the PAC-12 together, but dropping all the way down to 30-35 million a year was not going to fly
USC decided that they would stick with the PAC-12 if they could get close to 50 million
USC told a professor to come up with a valuation of 50 million per year. Professor complied.

I think this was post-SC/LA leaving. So it would've been one of the remaining schools, the common thought on r/CFB is it was Arizona State

 

[ab2cmiller]

I think this was post-SC/LA leaving. So it would've been one of the remaining schools, the common thought on r/CFB is it was Arizona State

Yup your right. After reading the article from the LA times, it seems like the dots more closely aligned with the goal of getting UCLA to rescind the Big Ten deal and they estimated they needed around 50 million annually to do that. Voila, somebody brilliantly came up with a 50 million dollar valuation.

 

[ACamp1900]

Nah,… it’s still usc if it’s stupid or embarrassing,… always

 

[Irish#1]

So....university professor has model that does not apply to the real world.

That was my first thought.

 

[Irish#1]

worth is what someone is willing to pay

Yep and there are only a few possible buyers who already know the value so your asking price can't be too far out of line.