Superconferences & Realignment

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Buster Bluth

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I don't think the Pac-12 expanded poorly, but Rutgers and Maryland...lololol
 
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PraetorianND

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SWWEEEEET! Love to see this. I'm happy the ACC is going to stay together. I think the ACC is the best conference in the country academically and athletically. The number of premier academic institutions in the ACC is phenomenal. I also commend the ACC for weathering the realignment storm and coming out stronger on the other end. I personally love our deal with the ACC and think it is completely unfair (in favor of us). We get so many benefits and little downside in the deal. Swarbrick is a champ. Also, I'm really excited for next year's basketball season!

As to the PAC12's expansion, I think they did a great job. Utah and Colorado are both great academically and athletically. They both bring major media markets into the fold and Utah is the fastest growing state in the country by population. Good move. Colorado had a sweet BBall team this year.
 

ulukinatme

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B1G forums are already trying to put a spin on this. "It doesn't mean this is over."
 

Rhode Irish

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I don't think the Pac12's expansion was as bad as the B1G's, but pointless might be a good word for it. I don't know how much value Colorado and Utah brought when they were negotiating their TV deal, but I doubt they added more to the deal than what will end up as their take. From a competitive standpoint, at least those two schools have been good before in both football and basketball and you can see then being good again at some point. The same cannot be said of Maryland and Rutgers. Maryland has at least flashed before in basketball, but overall these are desirable markets without on-field success to match.

The ACC is clearly the big winner in all of this, as has been explained already in this thread. UConn seems to be unquestionably the biggest losers in all of this.
 

GoldenIsThyFame

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I don't think the Pac12's expansion was as bad as the B1G's, but pointless might be a good word for it. I don't know how much value Colorado and Utah brought when they were negotiating their TV deal, but I doubt they added more to the deal than what will end up as their take. From a competitive standpoint, at least those two schools have been good before in both football and basketball and you can see then being good again at some point. The same cannot be said of Maryland and Rutgers. Maryland has at least flashed before in basketball, but overall these are desirable markets without on-field success to match.

The ACC is clearly the big winner in all of this, as has been explained already in this thread. UConn seems to be unquestionably the biggest losers in all of this.

And Cincinnati....
 

Rhode Irish

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Yeah, in that UC is in the same position as UConn, but UConn had much farther to fall. UConn had probably a top-5 basketball program in the country for most of the last decade, and they dumped a TON of money into a football program that was routinely getting trounced by Maine and Rhode Island 15 years ago and had actually played in a BCS bowl a couple years back. It looks like that will probably be the only BCS bowl it ever plays in, which makes you wonder if upgrading the program was money well spent.
 
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PraetorianND

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So since this is supposedly the end of realignment should we start speculating at who moves next?

I say Vandy and Kentucky to the ACC (only half joking).
 

Whiskeyjack

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I don't think the Pac12's expansion was as bad as the B1G's, but pointless might be a good word for it. I don't know how much value Colorado and Utah brought when they were negotiating their TV deal, but I doubt they added more to the deal than what will end up as their take. From a competitive standpoint, at least those two schools have been good before in both football and basketball and you can see then being good again at some point.

That's my sense of it as well, but I'm not sure I agree with your last sentence there.

Utah has flashed a couple times over the last decade, but has otherwise been very average. Colorado, on the other hand, has consistently been among the worst programs in the nation over that same period, and that's unlikely to change in the near future.

I'm likewise ignorant of the media market figures involved, but I doubt they're very lucrative:

fivethirtyeight-0919-geocolfootball-pacific12-blog480.png


The Pacific-12 plays plenty of good football, but the low avidity of college football fans in the Western United States means that it’s in the second-tier as a television product: only U.S.C. and U.C.L.A. have at least 1 million decided fans each. Despite their strong performance on the field, meanwhile, Washington and Oregon rank outside the top 40 in terms of their fan footprint. And other conference schools, like Oregon State, Stanford and Washington State, do poorly by major-conference standards.

As compared to these teams, new additions Colorado (0.5 million fans) and Utah (0.4 million) look tolerable — but their fan bases are likewise middling by national standards.

In retrospect, it looks like Scott and Delany were banking on superconferences, and thus decided to play the long game of media markets instead of focusing on program quality and maximizing short-term media revenue for each member. Now that realignment seems to have stalled for good, that gamble has been exposed for what it was-- a shameless cash grab at the expense of conference coherence and quality.

At least the Pac-12 remains geographically coherent. Delany really looks like a fool.
 
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pumpdog20

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The general consensus is that no SEC team would willingly leave right now.

If it's all about the money, I agree. However, Mizzou isn't a fit culturally, and they may not like getting pounded every year. We'll see; it's a small percentage of possibility, but I don't think it's zero.
 

Rhode Irish

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Whiskey, Colorado has been dreadful over the last decade, but they do have some history of fielding competive teams. Lord knows, we have seen programs have a prolonged slump and then rebound. That being said, I do basically agree with you. When I said that I could see them being good again, I certainly didn't mean to imply that I expect that to happen, just that I could imagine some scenario in which they were good. I think we can all agree that Colorado and Utah aren't game-changers for the Pac12.
 

IrishLax

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It's funny to think about just how bad the teams in the B1G are at football. They might have the fans/media money... but outside of Michigan and Ohio State that conference is just 12 teams of pure garbage.
 

Kaneyoufeelit

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>End game: <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23ACC">#ACC</a> added <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23NotreDame">#NotreDame</a>, swapped Maryland for Louisville and closed door. <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23helluvadeal">#helluvadeal</a></p>— David Teel (@DavidTeelatDP) <a href="https://twitter.com/DavidTeelatDP/status/326405736504631296">April 22, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Ok, so I've been seeing this a lot. Full disclosure, I grew up a Maryland fan in basketball and I've always been a fan of the football and lax team. When I was being recruited for baseball, Maryland was the school I wanted to get an offer from. My girlfriend for my first two years of college went to Maryland and thus I have spent a lot of time in College Park. With that said, I don't think I'm being a homer for not being ready to say Louisville for Maryland is a decided victory.

There is no doubt that Louisville is a hot team right now. They are coming off a BCS thumping of Florida and they went 11-2 this year. But, in Charlie Strong's other two years they were only 7-6 in the Big East, a conference that has been so bad that people joke (I think only joke) that they should lose their AQ status. No doubt Teddy Bridgewater seems like he is becoming one of the best Qbs in college, but he also be privileged to play some pretty awful teams. Not that every team in the ACC is a powerhouse, but Louisville is taking a step up in week to week competition when they enter the ACC.

By the way, in Maryland's first three years under a new coach (Ralph Friedgen) they went 31-8 and played in the BCS as well. They had some bad years but they were 9-4 with losses to WVU, Miami, FSU, and Clemson in 2010. They finished second in their division, one game behind FSU who they lost to. They fired Friedgen (long story but one of the dumbest moves in recent memory) and they have struggled in the past two years, although this year is tough to gauge because they lost their last 6 games but, due to injuries, were forced to play a true freshman linebacker at QB for 4 of them. Randy Edsall is a good coach, they have talent, are recruiting well, and I have no reason to believe they aren't soon to be an eight or nine win team.

Louisville basketball is obviously a strong program and will be for as long as Pitino is there. But, Maryland won a National Championship in 2002 and was in back to back Final Fours, won the ACC Championship in 03-04, and won the ACC regular season in 09-10. They are also going through a coaching change. They won 22 games this year (Turgeon's second year), despite losing 5 players due to transfers and suspension. They were also 3 points away from playing in the ACC Championship this year. Am I saying the are on the verge of contending for the ACC every year? No. But I have no reason to believe they aren't about to be just as good or better than Notre Dame in basketball, especially if Edsall starts to keep for of the Baltimore-DC talent at home.

As far as other sports, Maryland is one of the best lax schools in the country, they have won 2 men's soccer national championships since 05 and have been in the Semifinals 6 out of the last 11 years, and women's basketball won the NC in 06.

I know Louisville is the flavor of the week, and rightly so. But, let's not act like a) they are a traditional football power, and b) like Maryland is a joke. I know all the problems that Maryland has had financially and that some of the moves the administration has made are questionable. But it was long ago that Maryland was at the top of the ACC. they have new coaches who have people believing and a talent rich (particularly for basketball) recruiting base.

Any way, I'm sure there will be some objection to what I say here and I'm not trying to hijack the thread. I would love to discuss it with anyone who is interested. You can PM if you would rather do it there.
 

Whiskeyjack

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I meant no offense to any of the Maryland alumni/ fans on our board, as I have no attachment to program, positive or negative; so I'm coming at this issue strictly as a neutral fan.

For the sake of clarity, I won't be addressing any of your arguments regarding "other sports", since they've been mostly irrelevant as a driving force in realignment anyway.

Maryland is not a good football program, and they haven't managed to sustain a reasonable level of success in quite some time. Let's look at UM's FEI rankings over the last 6 years:

UM - 81, 81, 24, 70, 49, 41

That averages out to a painfully mediocre 57th nationally. And as far as Strong v. Edsall goes, there's no comparison. Those two programs are headed in very different directions right now.

I don't think an unbiased fan could disagree that UL is an upgrade over UM as far as football is concerned.
 

Kaneyoufeelit

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I meant no offense to any of the Maryland alumni/ fans on our board, as I have no attachment to program, positive or negative; so I'm coming at this issue strictly as a neutral fan.

For the sake of clarity, I won't be addressing any of your arguments regarding "other sports", since they've been mostly irrelevant as a driving force in realignment anyway.

Maryland is not a good football program, and they haven't managed to sustain a reasonable level of success in quite some time. Let's look at UM's FEI rankings over the last 6 years:



That averages out to a painfully mediocre 57th nationally. And as far as Strong v. Edsall goes, there's no comparison. Those two programs are headed in very different directions right now.

I don't think an unbiased fan could disagree that UL is an upgrade over UM as far as football is concerned.

And Louisville was 28, 30, 31, 86, 84, and 43 for a 6 year avg of painfully mediocre 50th nationally.

Listen, I'm not saying that UMD is a top 25 team but I'm asking that we hold off crowning Louisville as a perennial power.

I'm always curious about the coaching debate, too. What makes you say that there is no comparison between Edsall and Strong? Edsall took UConn to its first bowl game ever in 2004, a share of the Big East in 07, and the BCS in 10. None of those teams were powers, but UConn wasn't even a full member of 1-A until 2002. Edsall certainly seems to be a good coach.

My point isn't to start an argument about the two schools in particular, but more that when we fans look at some of the realignment talks we tend to be very influenced by the most recent season or two. Louisville could be a blip on the radar just like Maryland was in the early 2000s. I certainly don't think the programs are as different as people say they are.
 

ACamp1900

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I honestly thought that Louisville for Maryland was pretty much a push even before Kane chimed in...
 

Rack Em

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I honestly thought that Louisville for Maryland was pretty much a push even before Kane chimed in...

Louisville adds more than Maryland in terms of football (at least in the last 7 years - exclude the Steve Kragthorpe debacle) and adds a lot to basketball. I know basketball isn't the main attraction that football is, but I'm sure it gets some consideration.

The ACC definitely won this battle in light of the halt to conference expansion.
 

Whiskeyjack

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And Louisville was 28, 30, 31, 86, 84, and 43 for a 6 year avg of painfully mediocre 50th nationally.

How about the last 3 years? An average of 30 for UL and 62 for UM. Or BCS Bowl wins? UL has two, while UM has none. UM can definitely claim a longer and richer football tradition, but given recent history, that's about it.

Listen, I'm not saying that UMD is a top 25 team but I'm asking that we hold off crowning Louisville as a perennial power.

I made no such argument.

I'm always curious about the coaching debate, too. What makes you say that there is no comparison between Edsall and Strong? Edsall took UConn to its first bowl game ever in 2004, a share of the Big East in 07, and the BCS in 10. None of those teams were powers, but UConn wasn't even a full member of 1-A until 2002. Edsall certainly seems to be a good coach.

I wouldn't argue that he's a bad coach, as he has some notable accomplishments, but it's hard to compare coaches at different levels of competition. For instance, how impressed should we be that he steered a plucky UConn team through an ultra-soft Big East to the program's first ever BCS berth, only to get annihilated by OU and finish the season ranked 49th?

The Maryland team he inherited from Friedgen finished the 2010 season ranked 24th, which Edsall has turned into a 6-18 record and two consecutive finishes at 81st. Strong, on the other hand, took over a team that was scraping the bottom of the Big East barrel and has led them to a record of 25-14, including a BCS victory over Florida.

Maybe Edsall has simply had a run of historically bad luck during his first two years. As I mentioned, I don't follow Maryland football, so you'd know better than I. If so, Maryland should be poised for a breakout year in 2013. But I'm not counting on it.

My point isn't to start an argument about the two schools in particular, but more that when we fans look at some of the realignment talks we tend to be very influenced by the most recent season or two. Louisville could be a blip on the radar just like Maryland was in the early 2000s. I certainly don't think the programs are as different as people say they are.

I agree with that. Maryland has a better tradition, and can probably claim a larger following (though not much, I'd wager.) But the programs have headed in opposite directions during the tenures of Edsall and Strong. As a neutral fan, I would genuinely be excited to see ND play UL. ND v. UM? Not so much.
 

Old Man Mike

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My useless views to add to the noise:

1]. Maryland will be a good solid football program again, and be one of those "classic" middle-of-the B1G teams which aren't bad, become bowl eligible, and never challenge OSU, UofM, WI, PSU, and maybe even NEB or MSU for a title. They will also not embarrass anyone with their high quality academic university.

2]. Louisville will become flashily spectacular and could actually grow into Miami or even FSU status if they could ever remain clever enough to avoid scandals which regularly "cut them off at the knees", so that they have to rebuild the whole program every 4 years or so. Louisville will generally outshine Maryland footballwise because they have SEC attitudes about recruiting and "scholarship" and Maryland has B1G attitudes about that.

3]. Notre Dame has almost single-handedly stopped the expansion process by stabilizing the ACC football program. Before the ND decision, FSU, Clemson, VT were all looking to squeeze their cohorts out for two spots in the SEC, and find safe ground as the ACC went down. Many thought that ND picked the ACCs pocket with the deal, but the fact is that it was life-saving for them.

4]. Colorado will be good again, but their troubles are two-fold: they had fallen into a football hole which they need to dig out of quality-of-athlete-and-performance wise, plus they are 'strangers" in their new conference and no traditions exist to help with recruiting. They need a very good energetic coaching staff and lots of administrational support to recruit California, Arizona, and [still] Texas. As Cal and AZ boys get comfortable with Colorado as a PAC-12 team playing in their home areas, the Colorado recruiting can go way up. Add a better shot at TX highschoolers and they can be competitive.

5]. Utah's one of those Western anomalies, basing its occasional blossoming on types of connections others don't have so much [Mormon religion, Samoan player contacts, passing circus history --- lot like BYU] that puts dangerous teams on the field more than one would expect. Just like BYU these guys become a threat fairly often.

My view is that none of the conference commissioners were uninformed idiots on any of this, but OUR AD made an unpredictable move that terminated many elements of their visions and gambles. ND made some VERY good friends with this move, and a lot of not-so-good friends in high places. Still, we sell tickets and they'll get over it.


Add-on: Louisville Basketball was even before the NC one of the top 15 revenue programs in the country [all the rest were football] if the money argument is being made.
 
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PraetorianND

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Weighing in on the UL vs UMD argument.

Academics: Winner is UMD by a lot. 58 vs 160 per USnews

Market: I want to say UMD is better but it seems a ton of people are UL fans judging by their bball revenue.

I think they are pretty difficult to compare. UMD has had some pretty respectable football teams like UL. As of late UL is better but overall they are both pretty mediocre. I think UL is on the upswing so if you are comparing what you're getting today, UL is the better program but not by much.

In terms of basketball, UL is ahead by a large margin for obvious reasons. UL is one of the top programs of all time.

All-time NCAA Tournaments 39 5th
All-time NCAA Tournament Wins 70 6th
All-time NCAA Final Fours 10 6th
All-time victories 1697 12th
All-time Winning Percentage .661 8th

Maryland BBall:

NCAA Appearances 24
Overall Record 38–23
National Championships 1
Final Fours 2
Elite Eights 4
Sweet Sixteens 13

Thus, UL is a pretty significant upgrade for the ACC in terms of sports. If you're close to even in football and substantially better in bball, it seems like a pretty big upgrade. However, I think the ACC is such a great academic conference that I'd rather have UMD.
 
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Kaneyoufeelit

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UL is certainly an upgrade in basketball. The only reason I even mention basketball is to point out that UMD won a NC not too long ago and to remind people that Baltimore-DC is one of the most talent dense parts of the country. In a sport in which one or two players can take over a game, in the way they can in basketball, Maryland is not going to flounder forever, in fact, they look to be headed in the right direction.

Whiskey, I should say that the only reason I quoted you originally is because I saw that tweet too and a lot of others that were very lolUMD and I think that is far from reality. The only other point to I wanted to make about Edsall was that he came in and changed the attitude of the program and a lot of guys didn't want to get on board with it. He had 24 guys transfer within his first year as coach, including the 2010 ACC freshman of the year Danny O'Brien who was benched in 2011 for poor play and attitude.

OMM, it's amazing how you can come in on a discussion and better make the point that someone was trying to make. As funny as Jim Delany and B1G jokes are, there is a reason that the B1G wanted Maryland. The ACC didn't want to lose UMD.
 

Old Man Mike

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Understand that Maryland is building a new 105,000 seat Lacrosse stadium but no one in the B1G will play them. LAX will supplant football by the year 2025 in all universities except Alabama. Everyone knows that this is the only rational future for college sports, so let's get on with it.

{silent commit to joking font --- though in many ways I wouldn't mind sports like LAX rising to major popularity and revenue production. College athletics needs to depress football's decision-wielding dominance. We'd be a lot healthier in so many ways if the so-called "olympic" sports didn't have to beg at the table for scraps, or even existence.}
 

chubler

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On the plus side, with 5 power conferences for the forseeable future, it looks like our independence won't be threatened again for another 15 years or so.
 

ulukinatme

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If you want a good laugh, check out some of the B1G and future B1G team forums. Theres a lot of spin going on, some are in denial, some are apparently pissed over what looks to be the end of major realignment for now after so much speculation gone wrong. Theres a lot of forum lawyers like at MGoBlow claiming that all the ACC presidents signing the GOR means nothing, and it would never hold water in court "just like the Maryland exit fees that will get thrown out." The later remains to be seen, but it's not like the ACC probably cares at this point that Maryland is out. Seems a bit unlikely any ACC members plan on leaving for the next 13 years if they're signing the GOR to begin with...but the B1G is still holding onto the 20 team Super B1G dream and Delaney is going to bring forth the ACC implosion.
 

vmgsf

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I do not post often but I have posted several times that I am more optimistic about the future of Notre Dame football than I have been since the era of Ara. I am an old timer and I can still remember my unadulterated joy when Notre Dame was struggling horribly and Ara's first game of the 1964 season when they unexpectedly blew out Wisconin 31-7 AT Wisconsin and had a great season. Google Notre Dame Wisconsin 1964 and enjoy! Ara's 1964 team showed the Fighting Irish were back.

Lou Holtz's teams showed the Fighting Irish were back again and Kelly's 2012 team showed the Fighting Irish - like the Phoenix - were back once again. Lou Holtz did a great job and I have a geat deal of affection for Lou Holtz.

But, I feel with Kelly, Swarbrick and Father Jenkins everyone is on the same page. Kelly has kept his coaching staff together and he has grown and learned from his mistakes. I do not think Kelly would have rejected the NFL and returned to Notre Dame unless he felt he could win a national championship here. Swarbrick guided Notre Dame expertly, cunningly and craftily through shark infested waters. Swarbrick vs. Delany - not a decision, not a TKO, a knockout. Notre Dame is still independent, the ACC is soldified and happy with Notre Dame affiliating with them but not joining them in football. The superconference madness has been smashed to smithereens. Give Swarbrick a raise! Father Jenkins has given the football program all the support he can without compromising the fundamental principle that at Notre Dame, you are a student and an athlete. You will actually have to go to class. You will actually have to study. You will actually graduate from Notre Dame with a college degree that actually means something.
 
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