Sept 3 | Ohio State

[SeekNDestroy]

I think Coan's inability to do anything besides pass was the issue. Buchner should be able to create more runs. HH should help, obviously.

I just think he’s the reason people think we’ll be able to run the ball.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

We had 42 rushing yards on 21 attempts against Oklahoma State. I am not sure why anyone thinks we can run the ball with any degree of success until proven otherwise. I realize they were letting us pick them apart through the air in the first half, but we did nothing in half 2, rushing or passing.

Okie State's DFEI last year was 1.24, ranked 2nd behind only Georgia.

Ohio State's projected DFEI for this year is only 0.50, which is still good enough for 18th, but is going to be a far cry less dominant than what the Pokes brought to the field.

Last year, our OL was replacing 4 starters, was devastated by injuries early in the season, and had a statue at QB. It was basically a worst-case scenario for our running game. Based on our returning production at OL and TE and Buchner's legs, it's safe to assume we're going to run all over most of the teams on our schedule, and that OSU is going to have to stack the box to stop us. The real question is whether Buchner can hit the intermediate throws necessary to punish them.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

I take the ball if given the option. I run a lot of RPO, mixing it up with runs by Buchner, Tyree, Lenzy, and Estime and put 7 on the board to start out and shut up the crowd. Then I tell Foskey, it's due or die that you get to Stroud on his first possession. Force a 3 and out. Then I put Joseph back to return the punt and I tell him if there's even the smallest opportunity for a big return, take it. If he doesn't take it to the house I send Buchner out and and the first pass of the game is play action to Styles for a home run. Go up 14-0, shock the stadium, build massive momentum and tell them to absolutely pour it on until 0:00 on the clock. No prevent defenses, no bs, just punch them in the mouth for the rest of the game.

MFMF said in his presser yesterday that he prefers to defer, so that's that.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Okie State's DFEI last year was 1.24, ranked 2nd behind only Georgia.

Ohio State's projected DFEI for this year is only 0.50, which is still good enough for 18th, but is going to be a far cry less dominant than what the Pokes brought to the field.

Last year, our OL was replacing 4 starters, was devastated by injuries early in the season, and had a statue at QB. It was basically a worst-case scenario for our running game. Based on our returning production at OL and TE and Buchner's legs, it's safe to assume we're going to run all over most of the teams on our schedule, and that OSU is going to have to stack the box to stop us. The real question is whether Buchner can hit the intermediate throws necessary to punish them.

Stacking the box is a Knowles trademark. I don't know what ND would do without Mayer because there is no way you want Buchner throwing over the middle to a less-than-transcendent receiver on Saturday. And Ohio State is going to dare him to do exactly that.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

From /r/CFB: "In the Meyer/Day era (2012-present), Ohio State is 40-1 at home vs B1G opponents. They are 2-3 at home vs non-B1G P5s."

The only two wins came against Cal in 2012 (who finished the season 3-9 and still almost won), and Oregon State in 2018 (who finished 2-10).

The three losses were VT in 2014, Oklahoma in 2017, and Oregon 2021. That OU team was legitimately great, but the other two were far from it.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Of course, I don't expect ND to actually start three WRs...

Stacking the box is a Knowles trademark. I don't know what ND would do without Mayer because there is no way you want Buchner throwing over the middle to a less-than-transcendent receiver on Saturday. And Ohio State is going to dare him to do exactly that.

Good thing we've got the best TE in CFB!

 

[BleedBlueGold]

As most of you know, I’m an idiot. The last time I made a sports bet was 1996, so help me out. If I think the game will be closer than 18 pts, what kind of wager do I make?

$100 ND w/ points.

The only way I see this game being that big of a blowout is if ND just doesn't show up (like BK's teams some times did: Miami, Michigan in the rain, etc).

They very well may lose this game by 14 or 17 points, but greater than that? I'm skeptical. Here's why: ND's defense will be stout this year. Their DL and LBs will make plays and their depth and talent at DB, while it will be surely tested, should be capable of not allowing OSU to utterly destroy them, given the talent and depth of ND's front seven. ND's OL should be improved, they have a mobile QB, and while they have an extreme lack of depth at the skill position, the starters are still pretty decent. Mayer, Styles, Tyree aren't exactly scrubs. So yes, this should be a difficult game for ND to win, but unless they just flat out lay an egg, I don't see how they get blown out by 3 TDs.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Can we keep OSU to under 35 pts? If so, there's a chance. I don't see ND scoring 35+ unless there are multiple scores off of turnovers.

 

[du Lac]

MFMF said in his presser yesterday that he prefers to defer, so that's that.

He also said it's situational, but if he had to choose to answer that question, in general, that's what he likes. Maybe that means he will always defer. Maybe not.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Can we keep OSU to under 35 pts? If so, there's a chance. I don't see ND scoring 35+ unless there are multiple scores off of turnovers.

With this front 7, yes, I believe we can. Especially if we make them one dimensional. If we have a hard time stopping the run then the game is over. OSU will be able to score through the air regardless, even if we know it's coming, but at least it won't be at will.

 

[ACamp1900]

Can we keep OSU to under 35 pts? If so, there's a chance. I don't see ND scoring 35+ unless there are multiple scores off of turnovers.

It's an obvious point to make but very important in a game like this. Turnovers to me are maybe the only route to a victory... have to have them and have to capitalize on them,... all while protecting the ball ourselves. We will see.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

It's an obvious point to make but very important in a game like this. Turnovers to me are maybe the only route to a victory... have to have them and have to capitalize on them,... all while protecting the ball ourselves. We will see.

I predict a Foskey forced fumble and a Brandon Joseph INT. Hopefully Buchner doesn't reciprocate

 

[Whiskeyjack]

It's an obvious point to make but very important in a game like this. Turnovers to me are maybe the only route to a victory... have to have them and have to capitalize on them,... all while protecting the ball ourselves. We will see.

That's why Foskey and Co. need to be getting to Stroud early and often. Make him uncomfortable, capitalize on his mistakes, and then RTDB to keep his WRs off the field.

 

[IrishLion]

Deferring is almost always the correct option, even if you feel very strongly about scoring first and what it will do for the game outlook.

The opportunity to strategize and try to get the last possession of the first half, when you KNOW you're getting the first possession of the second half, is too important.

It can help you erase a big deficit. It can help you put a game out of reach early. It can help you either suck the life from a hostile crowd, or whip a friendly crowd into a frenzy. It keeps the opposing offense off balance.

There is too much utility in deferring to be locked into the "score first" mentality the way BK was... especially when your offense is nearly famous for early timeouts, false start penalties, and predictable three-and-outs as they settle into the game.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

As we sit, ND has 51% of all bets, but the line has gone UP 3 full points since it opened at +14.5.

This means the heavy bets are all tilting towards OSU.

We wont get much clarity on where the whales are going until Saturday morning, but early trends do not look pretty.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[ACamp1900]

As we sit, ND has 51% of all bets, but the line has gone UP 3 full points since it opened at +14.5.

This means the heavy bets are all tilting towards OSU.

We wont get much clarity on where the whales are going until Saturday morning, but early trends do not look pretty.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Taking off the ND glasses that everyone here has,.... why would anyone expect ND to win this game? The ND betting has to be those who think they'll lose yet another close big game,... lose, but cover. I highly doubt there are many if any 'experts' who expect a flat-out win on our part. Upsets happen all the time tho,... you never know.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

From /r/CFB: "In the Meyer/Day era (2012-present), Ohio State is 40-1 at home vs B1G opponents. They are 2-3 at home vs non-B1G P5s."

The only two wins came against Cal in 2012 (who finished the season 3-9 and still almost won), and Oregon State in 2018 (who finished 2-10).

The three losses were VT in 2014, Oklahoma in 2017, and Oregon 2021. That OU team was legitimately great, but the other two were far from it.

Good stat.

I think OSU (rightfully so) is getting too much credit for being OSU. While ND (rightfully so) isn't getting the benefit of the doubt given their recent spotlight game performances (other what, Oklahoma '12 and Clemson '20???). The problem is that recency bias is a bad be-all-end-all indicator for projecting outcomes with 18-22 year olds. ND has the tools to compete toe-to-toe with OSU. They may not have the skill position players to pull a massive upset, but I think it's a fool's errand to assume ND gets boat raced in this game like previous Bama, Clemson, or past OSU matchups.

Clemson 2015? A nail biter that we should've won.....if we don't win the game, then give me that outcome all day long. And I think it's within the realm of possibilities. The stat above is only strengthening my feelings.

 

[Te'o4Heisman]

I know it to be true. Ohio St receivers are going to light it up again this year. It may be one of the surest things in college football outside of Bama making the playoffs.

These RBs were drafted out of Bama from 2011-2016: 1) Ingram 2) Trent Richardson 3) Eddie Lacy 4) TJ Yeldon 5) Henry 6) Kenyan Drake...scrubs.

I think OSU is at the beginning of a comparable dominant run of WRs.

Sorry man but this post is stupid. In one sentence you say you know it to be true, then finish by say you think they are at the start of something that hasnt happened yet. If nothing else, further proving the original point I was making about people giving OSU a whole lot of credit for unproven guys who we dont know (probably unlikely) will be able to come anywhere close to doing what Olave and Wilson did last year which is what made OSU offense so deadly.

 

[IrishLion]

Bill C. says to take ND getting the points, and the under.

(The o/u is at 59 currently... crazy that his system is pretty damn close to the initial 14.5 point spread AND the O/U)

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Sorry man but this post is stupid. In one sentence you say you know it to be true, then finish by say you think they are at the start of something that hasnt happened yet. If nothing else, further proving the original point I was making about people giving OSU a whole lot of credit for unproven guys who we dont know (probably unlikely) will be able to come anywhere close to doing what Olave and Wilson did last year which is what made OSU offense so deadly.

Remind me in 5 years how stupid this post is when Brian Hartline is the OC and they've had half a dozen WRs drafted in the first 3 rounds.

 

[NDPhilly]

Would be ecstatic with a 12 point loss on the road to probably the #1 team in the country.

 

[ulukinatme]

Would be ecstatic with a 12 point loss on the road to probably the #1 team in the country.

 

[greyhammer90]

Would be ecstatic with a 12 point loss on the road to probably the #1 team in the country.

Get this comment away from me

 

[IrishLion]

If you're thinking about following Bill C.'s system for betting... NOT SO FAST, MY FRIEND.



That is downright miserable lol

 

[NorthDakota]

Taking off the ND glasses that everyone here has,.... why would anyone expect ND to win this game? The ND betting has to be those who think they'll lose yet another close big game,... lose, but cover. I highly doubt there are many if any 'experts' who expect a flat-out win on our part. Upsets happen all the time tho,... you never know.

I dont expect ND to win. But I won't be surprised if they do. Especially if the pass rush is remotely effective.

 

[greyhammer90]

Taking off the ND glasses that everyone here has,.... why would anyone expect ND to win this game? The ND betting has to be those who think they'll lose yet another close big game,... lose, but cover. I highly doubt there are many if any 'experts' who expect a flat-out win on our part. Upsets happen all the time tho,... you never know.

Michigan and Oregon beat them last year. We've typically been better than those two teams.

It's not some slam dunk thing, I think they probably beat us 6-7/10 times with 2-3 of those being blowouts, but I don't think OSU has been consistent enough to get the Bama treatment where I'm wondering why I'm even watching.

 

[Irish4life]

I have no idea if they're going to win or not, but I do believe they're going to fight, and fight hard. We'll see how it goes.

 

[ulukinatme]

Michigan and Oregon beat them last year. We've typically been better than those two teams.

It's not some slam dunk thing, I think they probably beat us 6-7/10 times with 2-3 of those being blowouts, but I don't think OSU has been consistent enough to get the Bama treatment where I'm wondering why I'm even watching.

I do think they're beginning to regress a bit with Urban now out of the picture. The talent will be there of course, but I think the coaching is lacking. Maybe their shake up in the off-season changed things like it did for us in 2017, but that defense has been struggling for awhile. Unless they have an Elko/Lea type turn around we should hopefully be able to put up points.

 

[SeekNDestroy]

Would be encouraged with a 12 point loss on the road to probably the #1 team in the country, but
only if they played them tough and were out-talented at the end.

FIFY

 

[ACamp1900]

Michigan and Oregon beat them last year. We've typically been better than those two teams.

It's not some slam dunk thing, I think they probably beat us 6-7/10 times with 2-3 of those being blowouts, but I don't think OSU has been consistent enough to get the Bama treatment where I'm wondering why I'm even watching.

I think we are of like mind here,… I’m just addressing the beating movement that was touched on earlier.