Oct 28 | North Carolina State

[BGIF]

This week's Sagarin PREDICTOR makes ND -10. Sagarin's RECENT model has ND -7.

 

[NDRock]

After last year's fiasco, I hope we come out and run it down their throats. Should be a good game, hope the boys will be up for it.

 

[greyhammer90]

Biggest game in Kelly's tenure?

Until we lose they're all big now.

 

[ACamp1900]

Biggest game in Kelly's tenure?

Until we lose they're all big now.

This game is crazy big tho, especially considering it's NCSt and Notre Dame coming off a 4 win season... oh how things done changed.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Oct 28 | North Carolina State

This game was at first considered a trap game because USC was supposed to be a tough, physical, emotional game, and NC State was supposed to be a good, but not great opponent.

Welp: USC was not a tough, physical, emotional thriller. It was a laugher. NCST has achieved at a higher level than expected.

We are in a GREAT spot for next week IMO:

Id rather have a good/great NCST team come into town to play a sharp Irish team than a crappy underachieving NCST team come into town against a good, but emotionally exhausted ND team.


*Would have loved to see Dave Doerens face last night with his notepad thinking hes got a game plan figured out for next week and then the Stepherson plays. He probably took two Tylenol PMs, chased it with a whiskey, and went to bed shaking.

 

[ResLife Hero]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Cam Smith: Grade 1 hamstring. Expect him back Sat.<br><br>Martini: Cleared to practice on Tues.<br><br>Dexter Williams: Expect him to play Saturday.</p>— Irish Sports Daily (@ISDUpdate) <a href="https://twitter.com/ISDUpdate/status/922165301067878400?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 22, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NotreDame?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NotreDame</a> coach Brian Kelly said he expects RB Dexter Williams (ankle) to finally be 100 percent Saturday for N.C. State.</p>— Eric Hansen (@EHansenNDI) <a href="https://twitter.com/EHansenNDI/status/922165292243062784?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 22, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Good news going into the week.

 

[GoldenDomer]

In hindsight, so glad they beat us last year and are having a great year because this is a massive trap game coming off that demolition last night.

 

[Buster Bluth]

Any betting lines out?

 

[NDRock]

In hindsight, so glad they beat us last year and are having a great year because this is a massive trap game coming off that demolition last night.

Agree.

 

[texbender]

Gonna miss this one, should be a good match up. Just take care of biz, baby.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Oct 28 | North Carolina State

Any betting lines out?

I saw somebody posted here FPI (think thats what its called) labeled ND 10 pts better, and opening line would be around ND -7

 

[BGIF]

ND -7

ND -7

vegasinsider

Opened at ND -7.5

 

[BobbyMac]

Opening at ND -7.5 or -7 depending on the book.

Was ND -2.5 on Oct 8.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs NC State Wolfpack Odds - Saturday October 8 2016 | Odds Shark

Until ND proves otherwise take 'em. It'll be interesting to see if NC St has enough support at +TD to keep the line stable or if the new believers start pushing the Irish line higher.

 

[yankeehater]

Opening at ND -7.5 or -7 depending on the book.

Was ND -2.5 on Oct 8.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs NC State Wolfpack Odds - Saturday October 8 2016 | Odds Shark

Until ND proves otherwise take 'em. It'll be interesting to see if NC St has enough support at +TD to keep the line stable or if the new believers start pushing the Irish line higher.

Crusader,

I replied to your PM and had some trouble sending so wanted to make sure it made it through to you.

 

[BobbyMac]

Crusader,

I replied to your PM and had some trouble sending so wanted to make sure it made it through to you.

Yep, got it.

What a small world my friend.

 

[BGIF]

-8.5


Sagarin's models have ND by double digits.

Sagarin PREDICTOR ND -13.32

Sagarin RECENT ND -11.24

 

[greyhammer90]

-8.5


Sagarin's models have ND by double digits.

Sagarin PREDICTOR ND -13.32

Sagarin RECENT ND -11.24

Sagarin has a certainty percentage right? What is that at?

 

[MNIrishman]

-8.5


Sagarin's models have ND by double digits.

Sagarin PREDICTOR ND -13.32

Sagarin RECENT ND -11.24

What did Sagarin say about USC?

 

[BGIF]

Sagarin has a certainty percentage right? What is that at?

Not that I'm aware of.

 

[BGIF]

What did Sagarin say about USC?

?

I don't understand what you're looking for.

The ND v USC Spread??

I posted ND v USC Sagarin Spread in the USC GameDay thread last week.



If you mean where does Sagarin Rate USC this week, he has them at #20 having played the 8th Toughest Schedule to date.

 

[greyhammer90]

I don't know how I'm going to get through this week.

 

[Blazers46]

Early peak at the weather has it at high of mid 40’s, cloudy with a 20% chance of rain later in the day. Wind 10-20 mph. Hoping there is no last minute hurricane coming through Indiana.

 

[BGIF]

Sagarin ND v NCS Point Spreads

Sagarin ND v NCS Point Spreads

Regular Method Predictions

FAVORITE Rating Points Gold Recent UNDERDOG
NOTRE DAME 12.78 13.32 11.21 11.24 nc state


"New Feature" Offense-Defense Method Predictions

FAVORITE WINNER LOSER SPREAD TOTAL UNDERDOG
NOTRE DAME 42.36 - 25.17 17.18 67.53 nc state

 

[Buster Bluth]

If I'm reading that correctly, they're predicting a 42-25 ND win?

 

[Buster Bluth]

This doesn't happen very often, but these teams have met multiple times and Notre Dame is competing for their first victory against NC State this Saturday. Currently 0-2.

 

[zelezo vlk]

This doesn't happen very often, but these teams have met multiple times and Notre Dame is competing for their first victory against NC State this Saturday. Currently 0-2.

Game 1 was against old Felipe Rios, right?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

 

[TheSunIsRising]

This doesn't happen very often, but these teams have met multiple times and Notre Dame is competing for their first victory against NC State this Saturday. Currently 0-2.

Yeah, it is the same thing with Oregon State (0-2). Goes back to the same era of the first loss to NC State.

 

[Crazy Balki]

Game 1 was against old Felipe Rios, right?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

Yep, and the offense continued it's magical run of vapid incompetence. They ran the ball for just over 2 yards per carry, 50% passing efficiency and 3 picks from our old friend Pat Dillingham (man, hate to rag on the guy, but did we really not have ANYBODY who could throw the ball better than him?)

If Ty had an offense that was just almost average, they'd probably be Fiesta Bowl that year against the U.

 

[MNIrishman]

?

I don't understand what you're looking for.

The ND v USC Spread??

I posted ND v USC Sagarin Spread in the USC GameDay thread last week.



If you mean where does Sagarin Rate USC this week, he has them at #20 having played the 8th Toughest Schedule to date.

I'm curious as to what Sagarin predicted for our game against USC so I have a metric for how to judge his prediction for next week. There's a lot of crawl through for the gameday thread.

 

[BGIF]

I'm curious as to what Sagarin predicted for our game against USC so I have a metric for how to judge his prediction for next week. There's a lot of crawl through for the gameday thread.

Here 'tis. Doesn't look like he forecast Darnold's opening strip, the muff, the INT, and the what 21 points off those TO's nor the hugh lead (and tough defense) eliminating USC's rushing game as a factor so early. But if you bet his way, you'd have won.


BTW, the -3.5 at the top of the post was Vegas odds.

-3.5

Sagarin's PREDICTOR model has ND -5.87

Sagarin's RECENT model has ND -3.50

HFA = 2.07 (included above)