Oct 15 | Stanford

Dale

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14.5 - 15.5 at most places after everyone really opened it.
 

arahop

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McKee is a talented passer. He's a statue, but he can make a lot of NFL throws. If you let him, he can pick you apart.

Last year, he had a few big drops from his receivers on great play designs against ND. Not saying by any means that Stanford would have won, but McKee is a serious QB. His supporting cast is just below average. If he's on a better team, he's getting more media attention.
This sound like Hall from BYU
 

KPENN

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This site has us -17. I think it is very possible but I don’t have that much trust.

They beat UNC by 13 with giving up a garbage TD and handled BYU for the most part. Stanford sucks
 

Some Irish Bloke

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McKee is a more talented passer, but does not have the same athleticism as Hall.

No need for a LB spy on McKee. Let a four man front do their thing and drop seven.
TBF, we assumed the same thing against Plummer and Cal. Plummer wasn't known to be mobile but just took what the defense gave him time and time agian.
 

stpeteirish

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McKee is slow as a glacier. And he slides, won't fight for that extra yard. So I agree with Canada here.
 

Some Irish Bloke

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No way? I’d hammer anything under 20
I'm not so sure about this, ND hasn't slammed the door on any of their opponents, so to speak, and as bad as Stanford is defensively, they can score some points. McKee is not the QB you want to have mental errors against in the secondary and ND has had those issues in just about every game this year.

-17 seems like a lot to cover against a team that may be 1-4, but they lost by 18 or less to all of Oregon State (1), #12 Oregon (18), Washington (ranked 18th at the time, lost by 18) and #7 USC (13).

I think ND wins but I don't like them to cover, personally.
 

IrishLion

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I'm not so sure about this, ND hasn't slammed the door on any of their opponents, so to speak, and as bad as Stanford is defensively, they can score some points. McKee is not the QB you want to have mental errors against in the secondary and ND has had those issues in just about every game this year.

-17 seems like a lot to cover against a team that may be 1-4, but they lost by 18 or less to all of Oregon State (1), #12 Oregon (18), Washington (ranked 18th at the time, lost by 18) and #7 USC (13).

I think ND wins but I don't like them to cover, personally.

To add to this:

They have another dude that feels like a potential thorn in ND's side in Casey Filkins, their white-guy RB.

He is good in space, can make the first tackler miss, and has a habit of converting for Stanford in 3rd-down situations.

He had 120+ all purpose against Washington. He had 140+ all purpose against Oregon, which was a really nice game. Both teams outpaced Stanford from the gun by being efficient on offense in the first half, but Filkins is a dude that can keep the game close of his own accord if ND doesn't clean up their run-game assignments and third-down playcalling when on defense.

Between McKee and Filkins, I worry about a repeat of some of the BYU frustrations as the game wears on. ND should win because Stanford really isn't very good... but they need to clean up the defense quite a bit if they want to cover the spread, and avoid giving Stanford some of the life they've been looking for (and been close to getting).
 

notredomer23

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I'm not so sure about this, ND hasn't slammed the door on any of their opponents, so to speak, and as bad as Stanford is defensively, they can score some points. McKee is not the QB you want to have mental errors against in the secondary and ND has had those issues in just about every game this year.

-17 seems like a lot to cover against a team that may be 1-4, but they lost by 18 or less to all of Oregon State (1), #12 Oregon (18), Washington (ranked 18th at the time, lost by 18) and #7 USC (13).

I think ND wins but I don't like them to cover, personally.

My reasoning is almost entirely to do with the fact it's a night game and little to do with the fact that Stanford would maybe have two starters that would actually start at ND.

ND's last 8 home night games
2021 USC 31-16
2021 UNC 44-34
2020 FSU 42-26
2020 Clemson 47-40
2019 USC 30-27
2018 Michigan 24-17
2018 FSU 42-13
2017 USC 49-14

All of these are covers too besides FSU 2020 where ND was coming off their 2 week COVID bye, and 2019 USC which USC covered in the last minute. Fairly easy covers too. ND shows up at home at night much better than they do for day games, for whatever reason. Even if you extend this past 8 games, you have a 1 point loss to CFP runner up UGA, 7 point loss in dreadful 2016 to 10 win Stanford, and a 10 point win in 2015 over Rose Bowl champion USC. You get the point.

ND might not cover. But I think it's more likely this is a 42-14 type of game than it is 28-24.
 

Some Irish Bloke

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My reasoning is almost entirely to do with the fact it's a night game and little to do with the fact that Stanford would maybe have two starters that would actually start at ND.

ND's last 8 home night games
2021 USC 31-16
2021 UNC 44-34
2020 FSU 42-26
2020 Clemson 47-40
2019 USC 30-27
2018 Michigan 24-17
2018 FSU 42-13
2017 USC 49-14

All of these are covers too besides FSU 2020 where ND was coming off their 2 week COVID bye, and 2019 USC which USC covered in the last minute. Fairly easy covers too. ND shows up at home at night much better than they do for day games, for whatever reason. Even if you extend this past 8 games, you have a 1 point loss to CFP runner up UGA, 7 point loss in dreadful 2016 to 10 win Stanford, and a 10 point win in 2015 over Rose Bowl champion USC. You get the point.

ND might not cover. But I think it's more likely this is a 42-14 type of game than it is 28-24.
I hear ya and am glad it's a night game, I'd be a little more worried about a 2:30 kick as well.

I feel like the truth is somewhere in between your two scenarios there, I just hope we clean up the self-inflicted defensive mistakes like Lion said. Al Golden needs to stop the safety blitz, especially against competent QB play. At this point, it's not some secret gimmick of his and I'm baffled why he keeps going to that well. Run lane discipline and overall tackling needs to be much better, too. That 3rd and 17 conversion against BYU was inexcusable.

As an aside, anyone else noticed that Al Golden has a tendency to allow long, backbreaking drives in just about every game? Sot does a great job pinning a team inside their own 10 and a long, momentum changing drive occurs.
 

notredomer23

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Stanford is down their starting LT Walter Rouse and RG Levi Rogers this weekend. Rouse is a massive loss for them as he has started 34 games and is a projected third round pick. Their replacements have a combined 1 start, with one only appearing in sub duty twice his whole career. Their starting RT, Myles Hinton, is returning from injury this game after missing the last 3. Because of medical retirements, transfers, and poor recruiting, Stanford will have 7 healthy offensive linemen.
 

NDdomer2

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Stanford is down their starting LT Walter Rouse and RG Levi Rogers this weekend. Rouse is a massive loss for them as he has started 34 games and is a projected third round pick. Their replacements have a combined 1 start, with one only appearing in sub duty twice his whole career. Their starting RT, Myles Hinton, is returning from injury this game after missing the last 3. Because of medical retirements, transfers, and poor recruiting, Stanford will have 7 healthy offensive linemen.
woof
 

IAIrish

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Rouse is a huge loss. I remember his recruitment, almost picked ND as an east coast Kidd.... Looked like a 1st rounder.
Glad Stanford doesn't have their roid program anymore....
 

BoredIrish

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My reasoning is almost entirely to do with the fact it's a night game and little to do with the fact that Stanford would maybe have two starters that would actually start at ND.

ND's last 8 home night games
2021 USC 31-16
2021 UNC 44-34
2020 FSU 42-26
2020 Clemson 47-40
2019 USC 30-27
2018 Michigan 24-17
2018 FSU 42-13
2017 USC 49-14

All of these are covers too besides FSU 2020 where ND was coming off their 2 week COVID bye, and 2019 USC which USC covered in the last minute. Fairly easy covers too. ND shows up at home at night much better than they do for day games, for whatever reason. Even if you extend this past 8 games, you have a 1 point loss to CFP runner up UGA, 7 point loss in dreadful 2016 to 10 win Stanford, and a 10 point win in 2015 over Rose Bowl champion USC. You get the point.

ND might not cover. But I think it's more likely this is a 42-14 type of game than it is 28-24.

This is interesting because we still dont know what MF's blowout MO is. It's well known that BK would let his foot off the gas at times. MF has spoken like he would have no problem racking up the score... but his nice guy persona is at odds with that.

Just the fact I'm asking the question probably guarantees a 1 point nail biter.
 

ACamp1900

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Stanford is down their starting LT Walter Rouse and RG Levi Rogers this weekend. Rouse is a massive loss for them as he has started 34 games and is a projected third round pick. Their replacements have a combined 1 start, with one only appearing in sub duty twice his whole career. Their starting RT, Myles Hinton, is returning from injury this game after missing the last 3. Because of medical retirements, transfers, and poor recruiting, Stanford will have 7 healthy offensive linemen.
Oh daddy,… I love when you talk dirty to me
 
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