ND's Path to the 2015 Playoffs

[Domina Nostra]

Are you willing to acknowledge that it's not just about comparing each team's only loss?

Ohio St. lost to a bad Virginia Tech team last year while TCU lost @# 5 or 6 Baylor by 3. If it was only about who you lost to then TCU would have been in.

I'm just arguing that a non-ND fan can feel that the Texas game provides a clear-cut, objective reasons that Oklahoma can't jump ND. I'm not taking that poistion myself.

Last year I was convinced that TCU and Baylor did not get in because they were not Oklahoma or Texas, and the committee did not trust them or want them in. The GBig 12 gave them an excuse with the dual-Cahmps crap.

I do agree, however, that the committee's final rankings will likely be based on:

1) Did you go undefeated in a power 5 conference (SEC West getting most love)
2) What were your quality road wins (SEC West getting most love)
3) what were your quality home wins (SEC West getting most love)
4) what was your over-all strength of schedule (including how many de facto "weeks off" against non-FBS opponents)
5) who did you lose to (SEC West getting most love)
6) common opponents

the conferences are roughly ranked based on out-of-conference games.

I think we get in if we win out, because other unexpected stuff will shake things up.

 

[gkIrish]

I'm just arguing that a non-ND fan can feel that the Texas game provides a clear-cut, objective reasons that Oklahoma can't jump ND. I'm not taking that poistion myself.

Last year I was convinced that TCU and Baylor did not get in because they were not Oklahoma or Texas, and the committee did not trust them or want them in. The GBig 12 gave them an excuse with the dual-Cahmps crap.

I do agree, however, that the committee's final rankings will likely be based on:

1) Did you go undefeated in a power 5 conference (SEC West getting most love)
2) What were your quality road wins (SEC West getting most love)
3) what were your quality home wins (SEC West getting most love)
4) what was your over-all strength of schedule (including how many de facto "weeks off" against non-FBS opponents)
5) who did you lose to (SEC West getting most love)
6) common opponents

the conferences are roughly ranked based on out-of-conference games.

I think we get in if we win out, because other unexpected stuff will shake things up.

The "can't" is my issue with many posters. I totally agree that's its a very valid and persuasive reason that ND should get in ahead of Oklahoma. But many people are saying it's 100% because of the one common opponent. I just don't see it that way.

If our situations were reversed, I guarantee the same people would be focusing on quality of wins instead of quality of losses and arguing one common opponent is not a big enough sample size.

 

[Domina Nostra]

The "can't" is my issue with many posters. I totally agree that's its a very valid and persuasive reason that ND should get in ahead of Oklahoma. But many people are saying it's 100% because of the one common opponent. I just don't see it that way.

If our situations were reversed, I guarantee the same people would be focusing on quality of wins instead of quality of losses and arguing one common opponent is not a big enough sample size.

You're right that this view will become extremely popular with ND fans over the coming month.

I was just saying you don't necessarily have to be an ND homer to take it.

 

[IrishinSyria]

A good example of how common opponent doesn't matter as much as we want it to is Bama and Florida. Bama lost to Ole Miss, Florida curb stomped them. Bama' ranked higher. Granted, there's a lot more basis for comparison there, but it's not the end all and be all of rankings.

 

[ulukinatme]

The "can't" is my issue with many posters. I totally agree that's its a very valid and persuasive reason that ND should get in ahead of Oklahoma. But many people are saying it's 100% because of the one common opponent. I just don't see it that way.

If our situations were reversed, I guarantee the same people would be focusing on quality of wins instead of quality of losses and arguing one common opponent is not a big enough sample size.

I agree. While Oklahoma will likely not jump us, it's not impossible. You would think that a common opponent would prevent getting jumped all together, but this is more than just 1 loss to Texas for Oklahoma. The committee looks at your entire work. It's a "What have you done for me lately" situation, among other things. Our November is relatively boring, while Oklahoma will have an impressive finish if they win out. While their one loss would be against Texas, a team we beat soundly, it's also a big rivalry game for them and anything can happen in a rivalry. On the other hand, look at the teams Oklahoma has faced outside that and the scores. They've been very impressive, dominating most of their games. They probably pass the eye test, while most of our games have been very close outside of Texas, UMass, and I guess Wake (Although Pitt should be lumped into there, as should GT). Needing late game heroics to beat Virginia and Temple, no matter how much improved Temple has been, doesn't exactly help.

In any case, I'm just focused on OK St hopefully picking up a loss because that definitely needs to happen before we can feel a lot better about our position. I'm not sure why Iowa came into the discussion, but they're a non-factor. Even if they win out, they would be knocking tOSU off and will take a B1G spot in the playoff. Focus on getting the Big 12 out of the picture and the rest should take care of itself if we win.

 

[irishfan]

Are you willing to acknowledge that it's not just about comparing each team's only loss?

Ohio St. lost to a bad Virginia Tech team last year while TCU lost @# 5 or 6 Baylor by 3. If it was only about who you lost to then TCU would have been in.

TCU also beat Minnesota by 23 that season while Ohio State only beat Minnesota by 7. So that doesn't exactly bode that well for the common opponent argument either.

 

[koonja]

Do you guys have no faith in TCU beating Oklahoma this week? I asked about Boykin/Dotson in another thread - anyone know if they will be playing?

I think TCU can win with Boykin and without Dotson, but I don't think they have a chance without Boykin.

 

[gkIrish]

TCU also beat Minnesota by 23 that season while Ohio State only beat Minnesota by 7. So that doesn't exactly bode that well for the common opponent argument either.

Wow did not even realize that. It's nearly a perfect correlation.

Do you guys have no faith in TCU beating Oklahoma this week? I asked about Boykin/Dotson in another thread - anyone know if they will be playing?

I think TCU can win with Boykin and without Dotson, but I don't think they have a chance without Boykin.

No I think Oklahoma wins comfortably. Our best hope if for OK State to lose to Baylor and then beat Oklahoma. The last thing we want is a 10-1 Oklahoma playing an 11-0 Oklahoma St.

 

[koonja]

Wow did not even realize that. It's nearly a perfect correlation.



No I think Oklahoma wins comfortably. Our best hope if for OK State to lose to Baylor and then beat Oklahoma. The last thing we want is a 10-1 Oklahoma playing an 11-0 Oklahoma St.

Do you think that even if Boykin plays?

 

[gkIrish]

Do you think that even if Boykin plays?

Yeah. Oklahoma is home. TCU's playoff hopes are probably over. Oklahoma has more talent overall and is playing better football. Just don't see TCU winning.

 

[connor_in]

Rumor is if Miami of Ohio wins out....they bumps us from the playoffs

 

[gkIrish]

BTW I think MSU isn't out of this either. If they win @OSU and then beat a top 5 undefeated Iowa they have a strong resume. The Oregon win looks pretty good again and will look even better if Oregon beats USC.

I think the committee will put the Big Ten champion in unless it's an Iowa team that lost to Nebraska.

 

[ickythump1225]

Wow did not even realize that. It's nearly a perfect correlation

TCU also beat Minnesota by 23 that season while Ohio State only beat Minnesota by 7. So that doesn't exactly bode that well for the common opponent argument either.

No it's not perfect correlation and it's not the same thing at all. Not beating a team by as much and LOSING to a team are completely different. It would be one thing if Oklahoma beat Texas in a close game, but they LOST. They got housed by them. It is not the same thing at all. GK man, you're just a pessimist so you latched onto this because it validates your negative worldview.

 

[gkIrish]

No it's not perfect correlation and it's not the same thing at all. Not beating a team by as much and LOSING to a team are completely different. It would be one thing if Oklahoma beat Texas in a close game, but they LOST. They got housed by them. It is not the same thing at all. GK man, you're just a pessimist so you latched onto this because it validates your negative worldview.

"GK is a pessimist so I'm going to dismiss his completely reasonable arguments."

Go ahead and feel that way if you want. Just don't cry if Oklahoma wins out and passes us because you refused to acknowledge that possibility.

I've said a million times that it's a perfectly good and reasonable argument that we should get in ahead of Oklahoma due to the common opponent. But it's silly to assume that is the only factor the committee will look at.

Better wins? Oklahoma
Better eye test? Likely Oklahoma
Better finish to the season? Oklahoma
Common Opponent? ND
Better Loss? ND
Metrics? pretty close

It's not cut and dry folks.

 

[IrishLion]

Better wins? Oklahoma
Better eye test? Likely Oklahoma
Better finish to the season? Oklahoma
Common Opponent? ND
Better Loss? ND
Metrics? pretty close

It's not cut and dry folks.

The only one I would change here, and why I'm not quite worried about Oklahoma (yet), is the "eye test" point.

I think the committee really thinks ND passes the eye test this year. Notre Dame was the #4 team last week in their rankings. I thought they were deserving of #4, but I wouldn't have thought they would be a "solid" #4.

Jeff Long said they were a "solid" #4. The only thing I can think of that pushes ND into "solid" territory is the eye test. Even if the scoring differential isn't outrageous, and even without style points, ND looks like one of the best teams in the country because of their athleticism, which pops out on the television pretty well.

 

[irish4ever]

"GK is a pessimist so I'm going to dismiss his completely reasonable arguments."

Go ahead and feel that way if you want. Just don't cry if Oklahoma wins out and passes us because you refused to acknowledge that possibility.

I've said a million times that it's a perfectly good and reasonable argument that we should get in ahead of Oklahoma due to the common opponent. But it's silly to assume that is the only factor the committee will look at.

Better wins? Oklahoma
Better eye test? Likely Oklahoma
Better finish to the season? Oklahoma
Common Opponent? ND
Better Loss? ND
Metrics? pretty close

It's not cut and dry folks.

So in other words, we need an Irish win over BC this weekend, TCU to beat Oklahoma and Baylor to beat Okl. State. Then it all boils down to an Irish win over Stanford and case closed, right?

 

[gkIrish]

So in other words, we need an Irish win over BC this weekend, TCU to beat Oklahoma and Baylor to beat Okl. State. Then it all boils down to an Irish win over Stanford and case closed, right?

As long as Baylor beats OK State and Oklahoma loses to either OK State or TCU then the Irish are in if the win out. No doubt about it. Then it's:

1. Big Ten winner
2. Clemson/UNC
3. SEC winner
4. ND

 

[gkIrish]

The only one I would change here, and why I'm not quite worried about Oklahoma (yet), is the "eye test" point.

I think the committee really thinks ND passes the eye test this year. Notre Dame was the #4 team last week in their rankings. I thought they were deserving of #4, but I wouldn't have thought they would be a "solid" #4.

Jeff Long said they were a "solid" #4. The only thing I can think of that pushes ND into "solid" territory is the eye test. Even if the scoring differential isn't outrageous, and even without style points, ND looks like one of the best teams in the country because of their athleticism, which pops out on the television pretty well.

I haven't watched every Oklahoma game so I can't say for sure who has looked better. But I look at all the Oklahoma scores and they have dominated most games while we have eeked out a couple close ones. Oklahoma looked really good against Baylor.

 

[ND NYC]

beat BC

#remember93

that is all...

 

[wizards8507]

As long as Baylor beats OK State and Oklahoma loses to either OK State or TCU then the Irish are in if the win out. No doubt about it. Then it's:

1. Big Ten winner
2. Clemson/UNC
3. SEC winner
4. ND

None of these are set in stone.

Say North Carolina drops to Virginia Tech and then upsets Clemson in the title game.

Say Florida loses to Florida State and then upsets Bama in the title game.

Say the Big 10 clusterfucks itself into oblivion and two-loss Michigan wins the title in a close game against Iowa.

 

[gkIrish]

None of these are set in stone.

Say North Carolina drops to Virginia Tech and then upsets Clemson in the title game.

Say Florida loses to Florida State and then upsets Bama in the title game.

Say the Big 10 clusterfucks itself into oblivion and two-loss Michigan wins the title in a close game against Iowa.

True but none of that would affect ND. We would be in. The question posed was whether ND would get in if they win out and Oklahoma/OK State do not.

 

[wizards8507]

True but none of that would affect ND. We would be in. The question posed was whether ND would get in if they win out and Oklahoma/OK State do not.

Gotcha. I'm just saying even if OK State wins out, we could still be in through some back channel that's admittedly much more convoluted than just OK State and OK losing.

 

[irishfan]

BTW I think MSU isn't out of this either. If they win @OSU and then beat a top 5 undefeated Iowa they have a strong resume. The Oregon win looks pretty good again and will look even better if Oregon beats USC.

I think the committee will put the Big Ten champion in unless it's an Iowa team that lost to Nebraska.

I think Michigan has a solid chance to win the B1G still, and that they would be left out at 11-2...or at least be ranked below us. To win, they need to beat PSU this week and beat OSU at home next week. They also need OSU to beat MSU this weekend.

 

[irishfan]

No it's not perfect correlation and it's not the same thing at all. Not beating a team by as much and LOSING to a team are completely different. It would be one thing if Oklahoma beat Texas in a close game, but they LOST. They got housed by them. It is not the same thing at all. GK man, you're just a pessimist so you latched onto this because it validates your negative worldview.

As of last week, fivethirtyeight gave us a 71% chance of making the playoffs if we win out. They gave OU an 86% chance. We are probably worse off now with the Stanford/Temple losses. It's being pessimistic to say we're not going to get in at 11-1. It's realistic to say we might get beaten out at 11-1 if OU finishes 11-1 as well.

 

[wizards8507]

As of last week, fivethirtyeight gave us a 71% chance of making the playoffs if we win out. They gave OU an 86% chance. We are probably worse off now with the Stanford/Temple losses.

F/+ has Oklahoma ahead of us too (with Ohio State at #5 interestingly).

 

[NorthDakota]

I haven't watched every Oklahoma game so I can't say for sure who has looked better. But I look at all the Oklahoma scores and they have dominated most games while we have eeked out a couple close ones. Oklahoma looked really good against Baylor.

Baylor sucks. Big XII is bad football.

 

[gkIrish]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Depends on how the teams play-Not just the results-To me if OU plays like they did last wk rest of the yr-they're in <a href="https://t.co/xtBoUtY4OL">https://t.co/xtBoUtY4OL</a></p>— Kirk Herbstreit (@KirkHerbstreit) <a href="https://twitter.com/KirkHerbstreit/status/666293317802459137">November 16, 2015</a></blockquote>
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Objective guy who is good at his job agrees with me that it's up in the air. But I'm just trolling here...

 

[Whiskeyjack]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">F/+ top 10 vs F/+ top 10:
1-0 Clemson, Oklahoma, Stanford
2-1 ND
0-0 Bama, Ohio St, Mich
0-1 Baylor, Navy
0-2 USC <a href="https://t.co/lZDcrze5mr">pic.twitter.com/lZDcrze5mr</a></p>— Brian Fremeau (@bcfremeau) <a href="https://twitter.com/bcfremeau/status/666310289407766528">November 16, 2015</a></blockquote>
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[T Town Tommy]

Depends on how the teams play-Not just the results-To me if OU plays like they did last wk rest of the yr-they're in https://t.co/xtBoUtY4OL
— Kirk Herbstreit (@KirkHerbstreit) November 16, 2015​

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Objective guy who is good at his job agrees with me that it's up in the air. But I'm just trolling here...

If Oklahoma wins out, they will more than likely be the biggest threat to the Irish for the playoffs.... but that Texas loss will be hard to overlook when comparing their body of work to the Irish's. Just sayin'

 

[NDohio]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Depends on how the teams play-Not just the results-To me if OU plays like they did last wk rest of the yr-they're in <a href="https://t.co/xtBoUtY4OL">https://t.co/xtBoUtY4OL</a></p>— Kirk Herbstreit (@KirkHerbstreit) <a href="https://twitter.com/KirkHerbstreit/status/666293317802459137">November 16, 2015</a></blockquote>
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Objective guy who is good at his job agrees with me that it's up in the air. But I'm just trolling here...

Really interesting to see that. Yesterday AM on the college football show he said the exact opposite.

"If ND and OK both win out, the very different outcome of each team's game against Texas will be the difference with ND going to the playoffs. I just don't see how OK can overcome that."