None of this provides a reasonable explanation for why ND essentially hired BK an entire new staff. If they wanted to send Kelly to pasture then they would support him publicly to keep the recruiting class together, keep the same staff, and then fire everyone when next year inevitably becomes a dumpster fire.
Under that scenario, next year would result in less buyout money for Kelly, less buyout money for his assistants, and a totally clean slate for a new HC to build upon.
Well it does. Whiskey said it perfectly. I talked previously about a married couple coming together talking about how they were going to clean things up, sitting at the table after they both cheated on each other. So they come up with a plan.
One way of looking at it is in terms of candidate and position availability, and bang for the buck. But there is another.
And I've talked to someone else, (or more than one) since I last posted.
Kelly started going south after the '12 season. Think about it. That was the
perfect time for him to move. He was damned near golden.
But he botched that. He and his agent. So they talk. And like idjiots they start looking at things. This gets back, and he gets cemented into a longer deal.
But does Kelly really like it? How long has he stayed at a D1 school before Notre Dame. Plus, Notre Dame is Notre Dame, there may not be a harder place for most coaches to succeed than at ND.
Kelly way underestimated how hard he would have to work to get to a championship level at ND.
So Swarbrick, who has just gotten the powers that be to sink a half-billion dollars into the Universities football future, has a coach that isn't gonna get it. What's an AD to do?
More importantly, timing. This year the timing is worse for Swarbrick and ND than it is for Kelly.
For Kelly :
If he is out, he will never get a coaching job again. But he is in his fifties, and should have enough money to live lavishly, pay for education and vacations, and clearly will be able to supplement his income with speaking and TV.
For ND, if they fire him it costs more than with Weis! For what? Show me the (experienced) coaches that are available with out ND having to buy them out as well to get a really, really pricey replacement for Kelly, still with no guarantees.
Yup, it would cost somewhere in the neighborhood of 30-40 million just to make Kelly go away, and get someone competent, with no guarantee of success.
So, what to do? If Kelly stays, and does reasonably well, there maybe someone that wants to hire him after 2017, whereas that would be more than does now want him. And remember, that is only if he succeeds at in a 2017 transition season. If he yerps, between now and then, he still is done. And of course the reason he would participate in such an affair is the collective power and control of the steering committee is great enough to guarantee he wouldn't even get an interview, if he didn't hold up his end of the bargain.
For the University Kelly guys ain't it. There are a hundred stories for every single one you have heard. But past names like Martin, Diaco, Denbrock, Quinn, etc., aren't coaching at ND anymore. The only exception is Elston, who apparently did a good enough job as recruiting coordinator, and getting the Irish out of a bind defensively after firing BVG to be kept. Question is, since he became everyone's friend, can he do the tough job required of someone taking over the defensive front? That remains to be seen!
Now you talk about who comes in. Speculation abounds, experienced heavy hitter, versus a relatively new, inexperienced coach. Either way, getting the right coordinators in is imperative. It is imperative to next season, which has to be a success, for many reasons including recruiting continuity. But it increasingly doesn't matter which way the Irish go. An inexperienced, or young coach would profit from experienced coordinators in position at ND. But, more and more, experienced coaches are losing the luxury of moving a staff with them.
Since the pay scale for Coordinators has risen, they are cutting their own deals. Did you see that Dave Warnier who just moved up the chain with Urban, is now leaving for an OC position at Minnesota with PJ Fleck? So if ND hired Urban, just for instance, who would he bring as his coordinators? Fickle is the HC at Cincinnati. So he got nobody to bring at this time. Instead, a smart coach would bring his guy as a consultant for year one, if that guy wanted to come, and then move him up if the guy in place didn't work out.
So to review, ND has a carefully crafted plan, put together by a bunch of really sharp guys, which emphasizes rebuilding the coaching infrastructure, which Kelly has allowed to erode, with the idea that Kelly can be transitioned out for a more capable replacement in a year.
Now here is the interesting question : How much is the offense going to change this next year? I think you will see some subtle but significant changes deep within. Not so much, or so quickly that it burdens the players, but enough so that it puts Long in charge, and makes scouting, and preparation a bit of a nightmare.
