I'm a recent fan of the sport, so I have a lot to learn, and I lack any context for the overall development of the sport in the United States outside of the major growth it's seeing now in terms of fans/viewership.
But with the sport growing in a big way at the youth level, with more kids playing soccer than ever before, is it likely that the US can start to catch up to the rest of the world in terms of being competitive on the national stage?
I know the US lacks the uniform/cohesive club structure that other national teams benefit from when they bring up their stars, and the geography of the US will always kind of be a roadblock to making any academy structure truly uniform, but could the simple increase in number of players we are seeing result in finding some talented future stars that can make up for some of the other disadvantages?
Logically, it seems like the simple growth of the pool of players should lead to a situation where we find 3 or 4 Pulisic-type players every few years at some point in the near future. They might not have the technical base that is offered in other countries, but more bodies means a higher chance of finding raw talent, and finding raw talent means those kids can find development at the club level in other countries, thus benefiting the US national team down the road.
Is that realistic? How long until those benefits show up? 10 years? 15? 20?
The kids are not the problem anymore. We have more kids playing than any country in the world. The problem is the coaching and pay-to-play.
Benefits are already showing in players younger than 22 who were anywhere from 12-16 when Klinsmann took over. He had a vision for development and Gulati was also instrumental in it, along with Don Garber who essentially forced all MLS teams to have an academy and a 2nd team. I think it has to go a step further though. USSF needs to force even the USL teams and the NPSL teams to have academies and coaches that are certified under a certain type of training program or achieve some type of UEFA pro-license. We need more kids with high level training. Because right now, let's say every MLS team has 25 players age eligible (not saying they have the talent) for any given youth WC cycle. We need every MLS team to be able to produce at least 2 players that can play at that quality, and 1 player from every USL academy that can play at that quality. That instantly expands your player pool from essentially 30-35 players to 100-150 players when you count some of the players that slip through the cracks and also those playing abroad.
And out of those 100-150 players, 30-35 will be great enough for one of the youth national teams. And from that 100-150 players, how many will end up being senior international level players? If you are lucky, 4 or 5. But when you are producing that many high level players every 2 years, that is all you need. You can have a dark cycle where you only produce 1 or 2 international level players, but you can never have back to back cycles like that.
So yeah, to your point it is essentially a numbers game, but before that numbers game really matters, there has to be wholesale changes to US Soccer as a whole and that starts with coaching, the elimination of pay to play, and more pro-academies.
Another very small thing that will help is starting a type of scholarship fund in these academies for players that don't ever make it to the pro-level or have short lived careers so that they stop choosing college soccer.
As far as how long til we see the benefits, that 25-28 age cycle will be essentially out by 2022, and certainly gone by 2026. So 2022, there is no excuses to not advance in the WC. In 2026, there is no excuse to make a run to at least the quarters especially on home soil.
Also:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">MLS product and strategy committee—with several influential owners—is meeting today in LA. They need to push for change in MLS & US Soccer.</p>— Grant Wahl (@GrantWahl) <a href="https://twitter.com/GrantWahl/status/918111167586951168?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 11, 2017</a></blockquote>
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Not sure if an emergency meeting or scheduled, but regardless, interesting.