COVID-19

[Circa]

I apologize If I have offended anyone with my opinions.
I really feel that If we don't understand what our future holds by the implementation of bills being passed. We will just find ourselves in the avalanche effect.
I hope everyone's families are well and staying safe.
Let's understand everyone Isn't going through the same scenario and this beautiful way of talking to people we tend to care about more... Is because of a related love that we can get together and talk rationally.

Maybe I need to check myself first. I'm as worried as all of you.... I promise.

 

[Irish YJ]

Yeah, people aren't taking this seriously enough and I can PROMISE you that they are planning how and when to use the Guard (and more) how to lock down borders, airports and state borders.

You guys don't know what I do or the folks I work with but I've been 24 hours ahead of Newsom shutting down the bars in CA and Ducey placing the first level Stay at Home on us here in AZ.

If this blows thru the projections of 2700 deaths per day on April 15th and the curve isn't peaking... shit will get REAL locked down in many places.

Just watch for AZ shuttingdown the border with CA. There's not many bridges that go over the Colorado. They could do it with 100 Guardsman at I-8, I-10 & I-40.

Stay home.

I'm not getting secret info or anything, but I have some friends/associates in unique places/positions. The little they've been able to share, and how they (and their fams) are reacting, tells me shit could get real, and get real quickly. I've been taking their Qs for weeks and have kept ahead of the curve.

And all you have to do really is follow the NG call ups. So far, 17+K. 10+ states and DC (and Guam and PR) already Title 32. I think almost 30 other states have requested...

Like you said, stay home.

 

[dad4aa]

What I don't get is what good does it do to have 25 states invoke a stay at home policy with limited "essential businesses" allowed to stay open and the other 25 states do nothing? That is like plugging the holes in the front of the boat but letting the holes in the back of the boat remain...you are still going to sink.
If we are going to stop the spread through staying at home then lets make it national.

 

[Circa]

What I don't get is what good does it do to have 25 states invoke a stay at home policy with limited "essential businesses" allowed to stay open and the other 25 states do nothing? That is like plugging the holes in the front of the boat but letting the holes in the back of the boat remain...you are still going to sink.
If we are going to stop the spread through staying at home then lets make it national.

I agree, but then that would then be called Marshal Law. This whole ordeal Is new and that makes for a unique situation.

(I'm way too agreeable)

 

[BobbyMac]

What I don't get is what good does it do to have 25 states invoke a stay at home policy with limited "essential businesses" allowed to stay open and the other 25 states do nothing? That is like plugging the holes in the front of the boat but letting the holes in the back of the boat remain...you are still going to sink.
If we are going to stop the spread through staying at home then lets make it national.

Let's expand on that example... What if you and the 5 people on the boat can't swim and you're in the middle of the lake? If plugging half the holes gets you to the shore before sinking, no one drowns.

BTW, 87% of Americans are under stay at home orders.

 

[dad4aa]

Let's expand on that example... What if you and the 5 people on the boat can't swim and you're in the middle of the lake? If plugging half the holes gets you to the shore before sinking, no one drowns.

BTW, 87% of Americans are under stay at home orders.

Great analogy Crusader. Good to know. Last I saw it was less than half the states. Still don't like seeing the beaches overcrowded with so many people that have no clue what 6 feet looks like.

 

[irishff1014]

Let's expand on that example... What if you and the 5 people on the boat can't swim and you're in the middle of the lake? If plugging half the holes gets you to the shore before sinking, no one drowns.

BTW, 87% of Americans are under stay at home orders.

They are but the list of essential employees in some states is anything but ridiculous.

 

[BobbyMac]

Great analogy Crusader. Good to know. Last I saw it was less than half the states. Still don't like seeing the beaches overcrowded with so many people that have no clue what 6 feet looks like.

HEre's a link that shows all the States. 37 as of tonight, many more like Texas for example have left it to the local officials and they've acted.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html

They are but the list of essential employees in some states is anything but ridiculous.

A furniture store I did contract work for over the past 18 months finally closed their showroom last night. Their warehouse is still open delivering furniture (100ish deliveries per week) So that means 3 trucks with 3 workers each making 11 stops a day, 3 days a week. Let's just say these workers aren't exactly healthcare professionals so they will have their virus riddled hands all over these peoples furniture.. or pick it up from a sick customer and pass it along to everyone else in the delivery chain. That's bulllshit they're still open.

 

[BGIF]

A CV19 PSA

A CV19 PSA

If you hold a glass of wine (or double malt) in each hand,
you won't be able to touch your face.



Stay healthy 🍷🍷

 

[Irish#1]

Ok, but at the end she was In Montreal. When tanks and the National Guard starts using military measures for a virus that has less deaths over the same period of time than other viruses... at the same progression... I start to wonder why?
I'm all for the safety and health of everyone.
Every time we have had anything of this magnitude, the things that seem weird from the standpoint of truth becomes coagulated and runs deep.

Stay safe everyone.
This Is about to get very militarized. (already has in more ways and States than necessary) I'm afraid of losing our freedom to the manipulation of a virus, more than any virus itself.

I definitely see what your saying. Dumb ass people will always incumbour our personal lives, whether It be by robbery, cheating, stealing, killing, false rumors, Killing..... We will never stop the madness.
IMHO, there will not be a miracle that stops the madness, and when we sit back and don't speak up about our future and the future of the young. We are just allowing ourselves to be baited like a fish in water.
Life Is very hard, Life Is very complicated, and when we allow a few to direct the many we lose. The politicians (corporations) are just like us and they will feel vindicated with everything we sit down for. Power begets more power.
We should stay the course but let's not think our interests are their interests.

Asymptomatic people are what everyone worries about. It's your neighbor you should worry more about... (they'll screw ya quicker than a virus)

Wake Up, Pay Attention to something other than our conceded selves!!

I understand and I'm really not trying to be stupid, yet maybe It's stupid. I'm all for the realness of what's going on. I'm not for the change we will allow to happen in order to save a few people people that are already on the way out. ( I don't know your situation and I can only hope with all my heart your mother is going to be well and loved by more now then before.)

Before It really took hold here in the USA, the mantra was pre-existing conditions, and within two weeks we hear of people dying without any test given and It's automatically the covid 19.

People die every day of every month, year, hour. Now every death is correlated to Covid-19....?

I'll pray for everyone's health and well being. I don't speak without prior deep thought out conversations.

I apologize If I have offended anyone with my opinions.
I really feel that If we don't understand what our future holds by the implementation of bills being passed. We will just find ourselves in the avalanche effect.
I hope everyone's families are well and staying safe.
Let's understand everyone Isn't going through the same scenario and this beautiful way of talking to people we tend to care about more... Is because of a related love that we can get together and talk rationally.

Maybe I need to check myself first. I'm as worried as all of you.... I promise.

NSAIDs (Ibuprofen, Advil, Aleve..) are not dangerous to your health. I'd say insider trading and acetaminophen (Tylenol) people used their ways to put false information out here to start a stock cheat. (Insider Trading)
The things that are going to be uncovered about the real understanding of this thing should finally show people that the rich get richer because of inside information.

<iframe src="https://giphy.com/embed/xT5LMPzLRZgZEvG3te" width="480" height="366" frameBorder="0" class="giphy-embed" allowFullScreen></iframe><p><a href="https://giphy.com/gifs/season-9-the-simpsons-9x5-xT5LMPzLRZgZEvG3te"

If that phrase that you said isn't alarming... I might as well just go tell my 3 year old to prepare for the end of democracy. Over the same time period the Flu does kill more, but this whole idea of "easily infected" scares everyone.
IDK. lets just give China, and Russia our SS# and give up....

How about a nation wide scare on obesity and being a LAZY asshole. Do something other than run the lips and stare at your phone and you'll lose most of the pre-existing conditions that cause epidemics like these. (don't eat any bats either.)

Glass half empty guy I assume? The bolded part is about as cold and callous as one could get. Maybe we should just have a law where once you hit 80, we automatically terminate you? Afterall, the elderly are simply a drain on our resources. They may have served in the military or saved a life back when they were young, but now they're just mooching off of us.

You need some Lexapro, Zoloft or maybe see if you can get on Dr. Phil.

 

[AKRowdy]

Glass half empty guy I assume? The bolded part is about as cold and callous as one could get. Maybe we should just have a law where once you hit 80, we automatically terminate you? Afterall, the elderly are simply a drain on our resources. They may have served in the military or saved a life back when they were young, but now they're just mooching off of us.

You need some Lexapro, Zoloft or maybe see if you can get on Dr. Phil.

And this is how socialized medicine works. Sorry to derail now back to COVID19.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">THREAD: Might the death toll from covid-19 be higher than the official fatalities attributed to it so far? Data emerging from the worst-hit places in Europe suggest so. (1/9) <a href="https://t.co/bGMebMckI7">pic.twitter.com/bGMebMckI7</a></p>— James Tozer (@J_CD_T) <a href="https://twitter.com/J_CD_T/status/1245739661449977867?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 2, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[MJ12666]

I am compromised with my opinion because i am currently in the Oil and Gas Industry. I can do many things within the construction industry but this is where I'm at atm.
If the Oil and Gas Industry of hundreds of thousands of young healthy people are capable of fixing the pipeline industry is essential than I can't think of anything other than priorities by our governed-ment.
Why are we Essential? I love the work and payday but are we essential? To who????

Contrary to some who believe that the reason the oil and gas industry is classified as an essential business is simply to benefit rich corporations, I suspect the reason has more to do with the fact that without a steady supply of these natural resources cities like NY would not have a reliable source of electricity making all those ventilators that Cuomo says he needs worthless.

 

[RDU Irish]

a) Increased capacity is an option. Ventilators can and have been used to serve two patients at once - viola double capacity. Maybe patients have to share rooms too. That is without even trying hard but Americans need their white glove, country club treatment.

b) Not all states and locations are created equal - rural American can much more easily isolate and distance versus cities. Cesspools with feces ridden streets and hundreds packed in to high rises spread this thing faster than flyover country - go figure.

c) Death is a fact of life. Boomers seem to have a harder time coping with this than many previous generations and young people are forever cavalier about this fact. Boomers have all of the money and all of the power.

d) 20% of cases are health care workers - seems we may be slowing the spread so they are recovered by the time this gets worse. I don't see the professionals on the front lines quitting over this near guaranteed exposure but we are all mortified of touching a shopping cart. Wash your hands and take precautions but living in fear is BS.

e) Cat was already well out of the bag thanks to China playing possum for 2-3 months. I am not convinced it has spread this fast as much as it had ALREADY spread everywhere and the testing is catching up to reality. As testing catches up the increases look much worse than they already are.

f) 2.5 million people were going to die in the US this year (7000/day) - fact is we are destroying our economy to stay within 10% of that number - I wouldn't be surprised if the grand total for the year is statistically in line with previous years with drops in many categories. Folks who would have been marked up for heart disease or cancer will be in the COVID column. I also think the number of people who have it or had it is multiples more than confirmed cases. Get an antibody test that shows who has had it and let those folks get back to work.

 

[dublinirish]

a) Increased capacity is an option. Ventilators can and have been used to serve two patients at once - viola double capacity. Maybe patients have to share rooms too. That is without even trying hard but Americans need their white glove, country club treatment.

b) Not all states and locations are created equal - rural American can much more easily isolate and distance versus cities. Cesspools with feces ridden streets and hundreds packed in to high rises spread this thing faster than flyover country - go figure.

c) Death is a fact of life. Boomers seem to have a harder time coping with this than many previous generations and young people are forever cavalier about this fact. Boomers have all of the money and all of the power.

d) 20% of cases are health care workers - seems we may be slowing the spread so they are recovered by the time this gets worse. I don't see the professionals on the front lines quitting over this near guaranteed exposure but we are all mortified of touching a shopping cart. Wash your hands and take precautions but living in fear is BS.

e) Cat was already well out of the bag thanks to China playing possum for 2-3 months. I am not convinced it has spread this fast as much as it had ALREADY spread everywhere and the testing is catching up to reality. As testing catches up the increases look much worse than they already are.

f) 2.5 million people were going to die in the US this year (7000/day) - fact is we are destroying our economy to stay within 10% of that number - I wouldn't be surprised if the grand total for the year is statistically in line with previous years with drops in many categories. Folks who would have been marked up for heart disease or cancer will be in the COVID column. I also think the number of people who have it or had it is multiples more than confirmed cases. Get an antibody test that shows who has had it and let those folks get back to work.

Seems the Germans are working on this specifically

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-could-speed-up-return-to-work-after-covid-19

 

[RDU Irish]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">THREAD: Might the death toll from covid-19 be higher than the official fatalities attributed to it so far? Data emerging from the worst-hit places in Europe suggest so. (1/9) <a href="https://t.co/bGMebMckI7">pic.twitter.com/bGMebMckI7</a></p>— James Tozer (@J_CD_T) <a href="https://twitter.com/J_CD_T/status/1245739661449977867?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 2, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Birx alluded to this in a recent presser. As they go back and test older samples they find more of it. Getting samples from the morgue? Or from recovered patients? Logical assumption is they check the morgue first which will scare the crap out of everyone when deaths go up with no corresponding check of recovered patients to keep the death "rate" down.

If I see the chart correctly, it appears the death rate spiked most early in the process, before they knew what hit them. What I am wondering is if you look a year or two out if they go below trend on death rate. Lets be honest here - the vast majority of those "excess deaths" are old and infirm. I do like how that is broken down though - absolute deaths is a hard to fudge number and would be curious to see that type of infographic for NYC, NOLA, Detroit, etc.

 

[Legacy]

BTW, as I am not American, perhaps you guys can answer me this. How come the feds aren't requiring each state to follow the same set of rules? IE, lock down for 2 weeks only essential service etc...

The makeup of each state is different. State government are in tune with their threats and needs, there's no reason why a pandemic threat cannot be coordinated by the federal government in cooperation with state and local and even private entities. A virus does not care about state borders and people travel. Economic consequences and the impact on their fiscal health like unemployment, decreased government revenue, the impact on small and large businesses end up costing trillion dollar bailout packages by the fed alone.

The advantages of a centralized response like SK's have been discussed, but it's also worth looking at Australia's health care system. who have a high Asian population and do a lot of business with China.

Part of their response is preparation with the Australian Health Management Plan for Pandemic Influenza (AHMPPI) and modeling an epidemic with a sensitivity for what infections are emerging from China. We used to have something similar and more aligned with the WHO pandemic models and responses.

Models have supported Australia’s response to COVID-19
They are a vital part of moving from preparedness to targeted response.

Mathematical models of infectious disease are representations of the way infections spread between individuals, in households, and through society. They can be used to anticipate the likely future impacts of a disease, and to consider how well public health interventions, treatments and vaccines might reduce infection transmission, and limit severe outcomes.

Models have a particular role to play in planning for the emergence of novel diseases, such as pandemic influenza or COVID-19. By definition, we don’t know when or where they will emerge, how infectious they will be, or how severe. Without such knowledge, we can model different scenarios to think in advance about different disease control strategies that would be effective and proportionate. These models can also be used to estimate requirements for essential resources, like hospital beds and personal protective equipment. (cont)

We used to have an epidemic response team in the WH, those epidemic management plans, but don't have a sufficient stockpile, a centralized equipment purchasing agency to keep prices lower, and a coordinated response plan with research into vaccines and good public health connections over the world.

Why? Sometimes it's political philosophies and a perception of who is responsible - federal vs state.

 

[Legacy]

A few of the federal regulatory changes made by CMS to provide increased enrollment in healthcare are:

Trump Administration Makes Sweeping Regulatory Changes to Help U.S. Healthcare System Address COVID-19 Patient Surge
(Mar 30, 2020 CMS)

Additional Background:Sweeping Regulatory Changes to Help U.S. Healthcare System Address COVID-19 Patient Surge
(Mar 30, 2020, CMS)

Modern Healthcare is waiving their pay window for the novel coronavirus>

CMS approves Medicaid waivers for 11 states in response to COVID-19 crisis

Mod HC - April 01, 2020 11:50 PM UPDATED 50 MINUTES AGO
Why the industry was ill-prepared for a pandemic and what changes could come

Trump is hinting that he may open up Obamacare enrollment to deal with the unemployment, uninsured, loss of employer insurance and the expected or current surge on hospitals of COVID-19.

 

[Legacy]

Military memo from 2017 warned of pandemic’s impact on combat readiness and risk of war (Military Times)

It paints a dire picture of the impact a pandemic can have on military readiness and national security.

“Key security concerns that could arise from the political, social and economic instabilities include opportunistic aggression, opportunities for violent extremists to acquire weapons of mass destruction (WMD) … instability resulting from humanitarian disaster and decreased distribution of essential commodities,” the document said.


“The prevalence of significant disease coupled with instability may result in reduced security capabilities, providing an opportunity for international military conflict, increased terrorist activity, internal unrest, political and/or economic collapse, humanitarian crisis and social change,” according to the document.

Memo cited with full details:
Pentagon Influenza Response (Jan 2017)

 

[Legacy]

Confronting the Pandemic Threat
Aspen Institute JUNE 29, 2017 • RONALD KLAIN

Ronald Klain was White House Ebola Response Coordinator from 2014 to 2015, and currently serves as an External Advisor to the Skoll Global Threats Fund. This post has been updated and adopted from the author’s piece, Confronting the Pandemic Threat, published in Democracy Journal (No. 40, Spring 2016). He spoke about global conflicts at the 2017 Aspen Ideas Festival.

 

[NorthDakota]

BTW, as I am not American, perhaps you guys can answer me this. How come the feds aren't requiring each state to follow the same set of rules? IE, lock down for 2 weeks only essential service etc...

Feds probably could step in, I'm not an expert in that stuff though.

Theory is to let states and local govt figure out what works for them. Rhode Island has very different needs right now than Wyoming.

 

[IrishLion]

I was talking to a friend that works for the city of Cincinnati. They are worried that some states are going to drag this out way longer than they need to, because the Governors (and even city Mayors) are suddenly able to throw their weight around a bit, and are getting a rush from the power trip. They worry the guys making calls are going to roll back the restrictions at a slower rate than necessary, just so they get to keep making important decisions and hosting their 5pm news briefings.

 

[Irish YJ]

Seems the Germans are working on this specifically

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-could-speed-up-return-to-work-after-covid-19

We're working on the same. Saw a segment on it last night. Not only for the value of "back to work", but for plasma treatment too IIRC.

The speed of science right now is pretty incredible. I saw another microbiologist talking about a breakthrough that simply lets us see the "invisible" enemy. I know that sounds pretty simple, but it's huge. It allows them to now rapidly test existing FDA approved treatments against the virus. The doctor says this normally takes them many months to years to do for a new virus. This took them less than a month once they were finally given access to the virus (from the fist patient in the US).

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">THREAD: Might the death toll from covid-19 be higher than the official fatalities attributed to it so far? Data emerging from the worst-hit places in Europe suggest so. (1/9) <a href="https://t.co/bGMebMckI7">pic.twitter.com/bGMebMckI7</a></p>— James Tozer (@J_CD_T) <a href="https://twitter.com/J_CD_T/status/1245739661449977867?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 2, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

There's been so much talk about the low quality of tests used everywhere, and simply the fact that even a lot of dead never got tested. Read one article early on that the original German tests used everywhere were found to be very flawed (it's why our CDC chose to make their own). The numbers we have from outside of the US are highly questionable. And then there's the whole deceit situation with China...

We used to have an epidemic response team in the WH, those epidemic management plans, but don't have a sufficient stockpile, a centralized equipment purchasing agency to keep prices lower, and a coordinated response plan with research into vaccines and good public health connections over the world.

Why? Sometimes it's political philosophies and a perception of who is responsible - federal vs state.

We've never had anything close to an infrastructure or existing processes like SK has (built in response to run ins with SARS and MERS). We've also never had any guidelines that say what the state is responsible for vs fed. We know some states have prepared themselves better than others, and some states have studied the needs, and some of those states have failed heed the guidance of those studies. Suffice to say, at minimum, it's pretty unacceptable for a state or city with high density to have less than the national state average per capita, especially one with such a high state tax..

 

[koonja]

I was talking to a friend that works for the city of Cincinnati. They are worried that some states are going to drag this out way longer than they need to, because the Governors (and even city Mayors) are suddenly able to throw their weight around a bit, and are getting a rush from the power trip. They worry the guys making calls are going to roll back the restrictions at a slower rate than necessary, just so they get to keep making important decisions and hosting their 5pm news briefings.

I fully expect this.

These people are ego maniacs, and every chance they get in front of a camera is an interview for their next relection, presidential run, etc.

 

[Irish#1]

c) Death is a fact of life. Boomers seem to have a harder time coping with this than many previous generations and young people are forever cavalier about this fact. Boomers have all of the money and all of the power.

How did you come up with that novel thought? The silent generation are pretty much gone and there aren't that many of the greatest generation left to poll.

 

[ACamp1900]

My wife just learned one of her students passed away from it,... ugh

 

[RDU Irish]

How did you come up with that novel thought? The silent generation are pretty much gone and there aren't that many of the greatest generation left to poll.

Easy boomer.

 

[phork]

And this is how socialized medicine works. Sorry to derail now back to COVID19.

Uh... What? I am Canadian. We have socialized medicine. We do not euthanize our 80 year olds.

Feds probably could step in, I'm not an expert in that stuff though.

Theory is to let states and local govt figure out what works for them. Rhode Island has very different needs right now than Wyoming.

But then you have 37 states complying and the rest not, which they should be. Which is only going to extend this shit show more time.

I was talking to a friend that works for the city of Cincinnati. They are worried that some states are going to drag this out way longer than they need to, because the Governors (and even city Mayors) are suddenly able to throw their weight around a bit, and are getting a rush from the power trip. They worry the guys making calls are going to roll back the restrictions at a slower rate than necessary, just so they get to keep making important decisions and hosting their 5pm news briefings.

Thats politics for you. I had to shudder at the fact that the Feds took so long to get money to the people. Making it a R vs D thing instead of just doing what they are supposed to do and help the people.

 

[ab2cmiller]

My wife just learned one of her students passed away from it,... ugh

I'm sorry ACamp. I can imagine your wife's pain. My wife's a teacher as well.

 

[Irish YJ]

My wife just learned one of her students passed away from it,... ugh

Sorry Acamp. How old?