AP Top 25 (ND #11)

[IrishLax]

Yeah, it makes the playoff more fun, the regular season less fun, and the title of national champion less meaningful.

Neither of those are true. The "regular season games will mean less" argument was also made by many about going to a 4 team playoff... anyone with a brain knew that was wrong at the time, and it has played out as such. By putting 4 teams in you have many more "meaningful" games for more teams down the stretch and you're much more likely to get the two BEST teams in the NCG instead of having a team that doesn't belong fluke their way in (or worse, a team like Oklahoma State get left out for a terrible LSU vs Alabama rematch). Moving to 8 teams just perfects the system the CFP already improved... it basically ensures that every relevant, impressive contender has a shot at the title without some teams getting screwed by bias and subjectivity.

European soccer is a horrible example because it relies on every team being able to play every team to have a correct sample for the table. That's not even possible for modern conferences, and can't possibly work for a national crowning.

 

[wizards8507]

Moving to 8 teams just perfects the system the CFP already improved... it basically ensures that every relevant, impressive contender has a shot at the title without some teams getting screwed by bias and subjectivity.

Bullshit.

2016 CFP Rankings. 13-0 Alabama is #1. 10-3 Wisconsin is #8.

Let's say some fluke shit happens and Wisconsin beats Alabama in overtime in the first round of your hypothetical eight team playoff. You're really okay with 11-3 Wisconsin advancing to the semifinals over 13-1 Alabama? Head-to-head is important but it's not THAT important. Single elimination tournaments are awful. It makes that one game more important than the prior 26 games combined.

Over the course of an entire season, all of the "fluke shit" has a chance to be ironed out. Each weird bounce of the ball that costs your team is balanced out by the weird bounce of the ball that benefits your team and all of the weird bounces of the ball that hurt and benefit all of the teams. You don't get that benefit when you narrow things down to do-or-die, single-elimination games.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Bullshit.

2016 CFP Rankings. 13-0 Alabama is #1. 10-3 Wisconsin is #8.

Let's say some fluke shit happens and Wisconsin beats Alabama in overtime in the first round of your hypothetical eight team playoff. You're really okay with 11-3 Wisconsin advancing to the semifinals over 13-1 Alabama? Head-to-head is important but it's not THAT important. Single elimination tournaments are awful. It makes that one game more important than the prior 26 games combined.

Over the course of an entire season, all of the "fluke shit" has a chance to be ironed out. Each weird bounce of the ball that costs your team is balanced out by the weird bounce of the ball that benefits your team and all of the weird bounces of the ball that hurt and benefit all of the teams. You don't get that benefit when you narrow things down to do-or-die, single-elimination games.

Football is too physically demanding to adopt the practices that other sports use to minimize fluke outcomes. The best we can do is ensure that the best teams nationally have access to a single-elimination playoff each year. Once you're in the post-season, it's "any given Saturday..."

 

[stlnd01]

Football is too physically demanding to adopt the practices that other sports use to minimize fluke outcomes. The best we can do is ensure that the best teams nationally have access to a single-elimination playoff each year. Once you're in the post-season, it's "any given Saturday..."

True. The question is how many. I'm fine with four, myself (while acknowledging that, most years, ND has a much easier path to the playoffs with eight). A four-team playoff preserves the value of the regular season, without cutting out teams that might truly deserve a title shot the way the old BCS system could. It's a good balance.

 

[jspags10pg]

I still like a 6 team playoff with the top 2 getting 1st round byes. Keeps the importance on the regular season (byes would be huge) and you know you won't have a scenario where a team like 2015 OSU gets left out when everyone knew they were, at worst, a top 3 team.

8 seems like it might water down the importance of some otherwise high stakes regular season games and 4 obviously leaves out a deserving team at times.

 

[stlnd01]

Also, to Wizards' point, No. 8 is not nearly as deserving of a playoff spot as No. 1, but is often quite capable of beating them on a given day. So there's very little incentive to win a top seed (unlike the NFL, for instance, where you get home field and a bye).
You could even envision a scenario where an undefeated or very strong one-loss team rests players in its last game (a conference title game, often) figuring it'll get in even with a loss. That sucks.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

True. The question is how many. I'm fine with four, myself (while acknowledging that, most years, ND has a much easier path to the playoffs with eight). A four-team playoff preserves the value of the regular season, without cutting out teams that might truly deserve a title shot the way the old BCS system could. It's a good balance.

I don't have very strong feelings on the subject, but the evidence thus far seems to indicate that four is still too few. There are five power conferences after all, and there is usually at least one or two teams from outside the P5 that have a good argument for being included (ND first and foremost). I'd much rather expand it to eight and ensure that no worthy program gets excluded in most years than leave it at four, which guarantees that there will be at least a couple borderline great teams who got hosed by politics.

Edit: As jspag's mentions above, 6 teams with the top two getting byes is a good suggestion, too.

 

[IrishLax]

Bullshit.

2016 CFP Rankings. 13-0 Alabama is #1. 10-3 Wisconsin is #8.

Let's say some fluke shit happens and Wisconsin beats Alabama in overtime in the first round of your hypothetical eight team playoff. You're really okay with 11-3 Wisconsin advancing to the semifinals over 13-1 Alabama? Head-to-head is important but it's not THAT important. Single elimination tournaments are awful. It makes that one game more important than the prior 26 games combined.

So much wrong here:
1. It does not make that one game worth "more than other X" because a single other regular season loss would've put Wisconsin outside the top 8. Any other loss at any point would've -- in their shoes -- equally eliminated them.
2. The entire premise is based on Alabama being a clear cut #1 that is soooooo good they shouldn't "have to" play this game against an inferior opponent and risk a "fluke" loss. There are three obvious logical fallacies in such reasoning, but the biggest overall issue is that most teams it's not "Alabama" we're talking about but rather better teams being excluded in favor of worse teams.
3. Looking at 2015, the CFP sucked specifically because "flukes" kept out the best teams. Despite losing to Texas, Oklahoma got multiple really close lucky wins against an overrated conference schedule (with their "hard" OOC game coming against 8-4 Tennessee). Iowa and MSU met in the Big Ten championship -- MSU in particular needed a hilariously "fluky" win against a superior opponent to get their, and Iowa just sucked the whole year. Those two teams were guaranteed a defacto spot because of how the CFP is set up. Both Oklahoma and MSU got embarrassed in their games because they didn't deserve to be there. Alternate universe:

1. Clemson vs Notre Dame... rematch of game that came down to a final 2 point conversion, obviously would've been better than Oklahoma getting throttled.
2. Alabama vs Ohio State... Ohio State was 11-1 and left on the outside looking in because of one "fluke" (the kind of thing you're sooooo against). By every statistical measure and on a pure talent basis, Ohio State was in the top 3 teams with Bama and Clemson that year.
3. Michigan State vs Stanford... PAC12 champ would've rolled the bad Spartans like they did Iowa.
4. Oklahoma vs Iowa... two overrated teams play, Oklahoma almost surely survives.

Three of those games are instantly better than what we saw in the CFP first round. There is no argument to be made that the current system produced better playoffs in 2015 than an 8 team playoff would've.

Similarly... in 2016, you had two more terrible semifinals. In an 8 team the Bama game is still a snoozer, but you get an Ohio State vs Michigan rematch AND a really interesting game between the Big Ten champ (PSU) and PAC12 champ (Washington) in what would traditionally be the Rose Bowl matchup.

 

[IrishLax]

Also, to Wizards' point, No. 8 is not nearly as deserving of a playoff spot as No. 1, but is often quite capable of beating them on a given day. So there's very little incentive to win a top seed (unlike the NFL, for instance, where you get home field and a bye).
You could even envision a scenario where an undefeated or very strong one-loss team rests players in its last game (a conference title game, often) figuring it'll get in even with a loss. That sucks.

For example, Ohio State in 2015 was arguably the most talented team in the country and only lost one game by a slim margin the entire year... they were excluded in favor of other one loss teams because of a bad system. They finished #7 in rankings, and could've definitely played with Alabama (the #2 seed an eventual champion... also a 1-loss team).

The idea that a system where Alabama gets a shot at a ring despite having a loss and equally-talented Ohio State (who beat them the previous year and barely lost to a 12-1 team) gets no shot because a committee of subjective people "says so" is somehow "better" than one where both of those teams get to settle it on the field is insane.

 

[GATTACA!]

I think the obvious solution is to expand to 8 teams without including the automatic bids. That way no P5 conference is guaranteed a spot but one also isn't automatically eliminated. If your conference champion isn't in the top 8 then you don't deserve a spot anyways. Also I think you could add that round one games are played at home for teams 1-4. That's a pretty big incentive, and will ensure teams play all the way through and don't coast.

 

[IrishLax]

I think the obvious solution is to expand to 8 teams without including the automatic bids. That way no P5 conference is guaranteed a spot but one also isn't automatically eliminated. If your conference champion isn't in the top 8 then you don't deserve a spot anyways. Also I think you could add that round one games are played at home for teams 1-4. That's a pretty big incentive, and will ensure teams play all the way through and don't coast.

Yup, what I've always thought is that the week after conference championship (maybe two weeks depending on how that lines up with finals, etc.) the top four playoff teams host playoff games.

Then your semifinals are in bowls, like they currently are.

Then your final is the week after.

 

[BobbyMac]

I love people who still think you actually need to go out on a field like a bunch of Neanderthals and see who's the best when any non-player / stat guru w/ a Pentium 486 can determine who's best. Really, why waste time? Do it on a spreadsheet and be done with it.

I hate what video games have done to everyone under 45 years old.

 

[dwshade]

Reading on ESPN that Kiper and McShay think ND is the best one loss team in the country and are a lock for the playoffs if they win out. Kiper says ND is a better team now than they were when they lost to Georgia. McShay is a big fan of Josh Adams and credits Kelly for turning the program around after last season.

 

[Henges24]

I love people who still think you actually need to go out on a field like a bunch of Neanderthals and see who's the best when any non-player / stat guru w/ a Pentium 486 can determine who's best. Really, why waste time? Do it on a spreadsheet and be done with it.

I hate what video games have done to everyone under 45 years old.

I wonder if that stat guru predicted the Syracuse over Clemson upset. Syracuse was clearly the better team coming into the game right?

God damn video games.

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[GoldenDomer]

Think the committee is looking for a reason to give UGA the boot and have us jump them.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Think the committee is looking for a reason to give UGA the boot and have us jump them.

Ga will get the boot soon enough.

 

[Cackalacky]

Ga will get the boot soon enough.

Das boot!

 

[greyhammer90]

Serious question : Would you rather finish number 5 and play against whoever gets left out between Penn State, Ohio State or Clemson

or

finish number 4 and play Bama?

 

[Irish YJ]

Serious question : Would you rather finish number 5 and play against whoever gets left out between Penn State, Ohio State or Clemson

or

finish number 4 and play Bama?

no mas Bama

Next year!!

 

[ACamp1900]

4 and Bama, it'd prob take a bolt of lightning to win any of those games and might as well roll the dice on the most meaningful...

 

[greyhammer90]

4 and Bama, it'd prob take a bolt of lightning to win any of those games and might as well roll the dice on the most meaningful...

You're much higher on Penn State and Clemson than I am

 

[greyhammer90]

no mas Bama

Next year!!

I think this is where I'm at. Obviously the dream is that UGA catches them on a bad week, beats them by two touchdowns, and we sneak in at No. 4 with the Jason Voorhees that is Alabama on the outside looking in.

 

[MNIrishman]

I think this is where I'm at. Obviously the dream is that UGA catches them on a bad week, beats them by two touchdowns, and we sneak in at No. 4 with the Jason Voorhees that is Alabama on the outside looking in.

It'd be great if we could get an Alabama-OK matchup again while we play PSU in the playoff.

 

[stlnd01]

Serious question : Would you rather finish number 5 and play against whoever gets left out between Penn State, Ohio State or Clemson

or

finish number 4 and play Bama?

I think we'd beat Clemson, and probably Penn State. Haven't seen enough of OSU to know. But there's cachet in making the playoffs. At this point way more than making the Fiesta Bowl or whatever like we did in 2015. And I don't think Bama blows us out. So 4 and Bama.

 

[greyhammer90]

And I don't think Bama blows us out.

 

[Irish YJ]

I think this is where I'm at. Obviously the dream is that UGA catches them on a bad week and we sneak in with the Jason Voorhees that is Alabama on the outside looking in.

We'd get ball slapped this year against Bama simply because they'd make us one dimensional on O as their Dline is NFL, LBs are men, and DBs can handle us man/man most of the time. On the other side, our DBs would get pimped. Next year however assuming BW matures, we have another year of Balis and Elko, and with the returning starters we'll have, I'd give ND a decent chance.

Would rather keep momentum with a quality win vs 5-10 and whoop ass on the recruiting trail.

 

[Irish YJ]

or the "bless your heart" from the south would be fitting lol

 

[GATTACA!]

Serious question : Would you rather finish number 5 and play against whoever gets left out between Penn State, Ohio State or Clemson

or

finish number 4 and play Bama?

You miss 100% of the shots you don't take.

~Wayne Gretzky

~~Michael Scott

Give me Bama

 

[MNIrishman]

I want Bama. I do. They're the standard of excellence right now.

However, I want to meet them in the 'ship. If we lose again, at least we'll have won a playoff game and have nothing to lose. At the same time, we'll be facing Saban with less time to prepare his players. I believe he's the best in the country at keeping his players focused for a bowl game, so longer breaks between games favor him over most other coaches.

The worst thing about 2012 was how that loss somehow meant we didn't belong, as though some other team had performed as well as we did leading up to the game.

 

[koonja]

Jesus, you people who want bama don't want another title. get real, they'd crush almost anyone, us included. Wimbush would have 15 passing yards.