2018 CFP Rankings

[Me2SouthBend]

This. Doesn't matter what anyone else does. Win and we're in.

And I just texted w a buddy who had a son attend eUSC and another at Clemson. They’re rooting for Clemson so “they have someone to root for against Bama”. He is counting his chickens. I reminded him they may have ND to deal w first.

 

[Legacy]

Of the sixteen Playoff teams covering the four years of the CFP, only three teams have been undefeated. Two undefeated teams reached the Championship Game, but neither won.

 

[ulukinatme]

I fast-forwarded through Gameday like usual, but I stopped to hear what they were going to say about the Playoff. Fuckin' Desmond Howard was making the case that ND doesn't play a Conference Title game, blah blah blah, and he said Michigan should be AHEAD of ND! He was already assuming that scUM was going to handle tOSU and win the Big 10 Championship. How'd that work out for you, Desmond? Reece and Herbstreit were quick to point out that both Alabama and Ohio State have gotten into the playoff without playing a Championship game, and 13 wins doesn't always mean 13 meaningful games when you consider FCS opponents (Which ND has never played).

 

[NorthDakota]

I fast-forwarded through Gameday like usual, but I stopped to hear what they were going to say about the Playoff. Fuckin' Desmond Howard was making the case that ND doesn't play a Conference Title game, blah blah blah, and he said Michigan should be AHEAD of ND! He was already assuming that scUM was going to handle tOSU and win the Big 10 Championship. How'd that work out for you, Desmond? Reece and Herbstreit were quick to point out that both Alabama and Ohio State have gotten into the playoff without playing a Championship game, and 13 wins doesn't always mean 13 meaningful games when you consider FCS opponents (Which ND has never played).

These guys aren't paid to give us legitimate takes. Des is paid to be cool, fun, and a Michigan homer ala Holtz for ND.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

These guys aren't paid to give us legitimate takes. Des is paid to be cool, fun, and a Michigan homer ala Holtz for ND.

Desmond is cool?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[NorthDakota]

Desmond is cool?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

He tries.....God bless him.

 

[Irish YJ]

so probably on Tuesday,

1 Bama (next up UGA) - Atlanta GA
2 Clemson (next up Pitt) - Charlotte NC
3 ND (done)
4 UGA (next up Bama) Atlanta GA
5 OK (next up TX) - Arlington TX
6 OSU (next up NW) - Indpls, IN
7 UCF (next up Memphis) - Orlando FL

 

[BobbyMac]

Who cares!

Bring on Clemson or whoever.

 

[stlnd01]

Assuming Clemson/ND win out, Bama winning today is great. I don’t see any scenario where we would have to play them in the semifinal. If UGA beats them, IMO Bama will be #4 if not out of the playoffs, and I see no way that we finish worse than 3rd.

Yeah. If Georgia beats Bama next week, assuming it's close, I'd bet they're both in, as the 3 and 4 seeds. So Clemson gets Bama in the first round and we'd be #2 and draw Georgia. That's fine.

 

[IHateMarkMay]

My biggest question isn't the rankings this week (Alabama, Clemson, ND, Georgia, IMO). It's next week with the whatifs.

All the favorites win. Alabama, Clemson, ND all in, who is the four spot? Ohio State or Oklahoma?

Alabama loses a close game to Georgia. My opinion would be Clemson, ND... then... who are the last two in?

I'd really like to see Northwestern beat OSU (who wouldn't?). I don't like seeing Urban Meyer win anything, seeing as every big program he goes to has investigations and whatnot. Even College Game Day alluded to "the white elephant" that follows him...

 

[koonja]

So... go Georgia? I think if they win we avoid Clemson and Bama.

We know Clemson and Georgia would be ahead of Bama. Maybe Bama jumps us and goes to #3, but in that case we'd be #4 and play Clemson anyway.

If they dont jump us and go to #4, they'd play Clemson. But Comittee wont want rematch of Georgia and Bama after they just played, so it likely would be Clemson vs Bama.

So at worst we're playing Clemson which we are already going to do if Bama wins. At best we play Georgia and Clemson and Bama play each other.

 

[notredomer23]

My biggest question isn't the rankings this week (Alabama, Clemson, ND, Georgia, IMO). It's next week with the whatifs.

All the favorites win. Alabama, Clemson, ND all in, who is the four spot? Ohio State or Oklahoma?

Alabama loses a close game to Georgia. My opinion would be Clemson, ND... then... who are the last two in?

I'd really like to see Northwestern beat OSU (who wouldn't?). I don't like seeing Urban Meyer win anything, seeing as every big program he goes to has investigations and whatnot. Even College Game Day alluded to "the white elephant" that follows him...

Scenario I'd like is Clemson lose, UGA lose, one of OSU/Oklahoma lose. Would love to play either of them.

 

[wizards8507]

My biggest question isn't the rankings this week (Alabama, Clemson, ND, Georgia, IMO). It's next week with the whatifs.

All the favorites win. Alabama, Clemson, ND all in, who is the four spot? Ohio State or Oklahoma?

Alabama loses a close game to Georgia. My opinion would be Clemson, ND... then... who are the last two in?

I'd really like to see Northwestern beat OSU (who wouldn't?). I don't like seeing Urban Meyer win anything, seeing as every big program he goes to has investigations and whatnot. Even College Game Day alluded to "the white elephant" that follows him...

If Georgia beats Alabama, it's 100% Clemson, Notre Dame, Georgia, and Alabama, not necessarily in that order. That's absolutely indisputable.

 

[BabyIrish]

If Georgia OU and OSU somehow lose does UCF get in

 

[NDShark]

Nate Silver is pretty bearish on the Irish getting into the playoffs. At present, the Irish have the second best odds to make it at 77%, which seems low for an undefeated P5 team. Additionally, if the favorites win next week (Bama, Clemson, OSU, and Oklahoma), the odds look like this:

Alabama: >99%
Clemson: >99%
ND: 62%
OSU: 69% (nice)
OU: 69% (nice)

Of course, these are modeled off of past committee decisions and therefore should be taken with a huge grain of salt. Intuitively, an undefeated ND should not be left out of the playoffs. But...given the way the committee's discussed ND's standing the past few weeks (grouped with UM and UGA instead of with Clemson and Bama), I'm not closing the door on some complete BS just yet.

Link: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/

 

[IrishLax]

Nate Silver is pretty bearish on the Irish getting into the playoffs. At present, the Irish have the second best odds to make it at 77%, which seems low for an undefeated P5 team. Additionally, if the favorites win next week (Bama, Clemson, OSU, and Oklahoma), the odds look like this:

Alabama: >99%
Clemson: >99%
ND: 62%
OSU: 69% (nice)
OU: 69% (nice)

Of course, these are modeled off of past committee decisions and therefore should be taken with a huge grain of salt. Intuitively, an undefeated ND should not be left out of the playoffs. But...given the way the committee's discussed ND's standing the past few weeks (grouped with UM and UGA instead of with Clemson and Bama), I'm not closing the door on some complete BS just yet.

Link: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/

ESPN has us at 99%+. Nate Silver’s models have never had any idea how to treat Notre Dame because they look at them like ND is UCF instead of a Power 5 team.

 

[stlnd01]

ESPN has us at 99%+. Nate Silver’s models have never had any idea how to treat Notre Dame because they look at them like ND is UCF instead of a Power 5 team.

Nate Silver should stick to politics.

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

Nate Silver should stick to politics.

But he can't even do that right. Lol.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

 

[Irish YJ]

ESPN has us at 99%+. Nate Silver’s models have never had any idea how to treat Notre Dame because they look at them like ND is UCF instead of a Power 5 team.

i was a little surprised that they gave Clemson a slightly better shot at winning the NC than Bama. If both Bama and Clemson win next weekend, I bet the % jump bigly in favor of Bama.

 

[Irish Insanity]

I don't see any way we end up higher than 3 unless Alabama and Clemson both lose in their championship games. And I expect us to drop in the final poll if any 2 of UGA, OSU, or OU win bid. Possibly even to 5th and out of the playoffs if UGA and OU both win big.

 

[NDShark]

I don't see any way we end up higher than 3 unless Alabama and Clemson both lose in their championship games. And I expect us to drop in the final poll if any 2 of UGA, OSU, or OU win bid. Possibly even to 5th and out of the playoffs if UGA and OU both win big.

Would be an absolutely crazy decision. Savvy Jack might move us to an all-academics league if we got played like that.

 

[Bishop2b5]

I don't see any way we end up higher than 3 unless Alabama and Clemson both lose in their championship games. And I expect us to drop in the final poll if any 2 of UGA, OSU, or OU win bid. Possibly even to 5th and out of the playoffs if UGA and OU both win big.

I disagree. You're in. Period. Even if OU, UGA and OSU should win, there's no way two of them would jump ahead of ND. I can't imagine any scenario where ND drops below 3rd, let alone gets pushed out.

 

[Dizzyphil]

I don't see any way we end up higher than 3 unless Alabama and Clemson both lose in their championship games. And I expect us to drop in the final poll if any 2 of UGA, OSU, or OU win bid. Possibly even to 5th and out of the playoffs if UGA and OU both win big.

Bama opens -13, Oklahoma -7.5 & Ohio State -13.5. Conference title game

 

[Irish YJ]

I disagree. You're in. Period. Even if OU, UGA and OSU should win, there's no way two of them would jump ahead of ND. I can't imagine any scenario where ND drops below 3rd, let alone gets pushed out.

A UGA win by a point or two, and I wouldn't be shocked to see Clemson, UGA, Bama, ND.
But I don't see Bama losing.

 

[IrishinSyria]

i was a little surprised that they gave Clemson a slightly better shot at winning the NC than Bama. If both Bama and Clemson win next weekend, I bet the % jump bigly in favor of Bama.

Yeah the clempson over Bama thing has everything to do with Georgia.

 

[ulukinatme]

I would hope not, but what are the odds that the committee jobs us to Alabama first round by moving tOSU or OU up to #3 after their title games?

 

[IrishSteelhead]

I hate this flying by the seat of your pants mentality. The committee will probably forget that OSU has some awful games, and an awful loss, just because they looked good this week. There is no reasonable way they get in ahead of OU if they beat Texas.

CFB teams have a lot of variance week to week . Its not a salad bar, where you only pick out what you like, gotta look at everything. OSU is out. Screw them.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Irish YJ]

I hate this flying by the seat of your pants mentality. The committee will probably forget that OSU has some awful games, and an awful loss, just because they looked good this week. There is no reasonable way they get in ahead of OU if they beat Texas.

CFB teams have a lot of variance week to week . Its not a salad bar, where you only pick out what you like, gotta look at everything. OSU is out. Screw them.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Agree, if OK avenges their only loss, they're in.

OSU though, to me, is probably the better team. Bama will score a TD on every series vs OK.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

2018 CFP Rankings

Agree, if OK avenges their only loss, they're in.



OSU though, to me, is probably the better team. Bama will score a TD on every series vs OK.

This is part of the problem IMO too. Sure, you want the 4 BEST teams, but MOST DESERVING also needs to enter the equation. OSU should not get a pass for losing by 30 fucking points to a 6-6 team, just because they beat Michigan by a lot, and we all know they would do the same to Purdue if they played again.

The results of the games need to matter!!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Irish YJ]

This is part of the problem IMO too. Sure, you want the 4 BEST teams, but MOST DESERVING also needs to enter the equation. OSU should not get a pass for losing by 30 fucking points to a 6-6 team, just because they beat Michigan by a lot, and we all know they would do the same to Purdue if they played again.

The results of the games need to matter!!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Honestly, I lean toward the "best", if teams have the same record. OSU's SOR is actually better than OK's too. Tied in FPI. OK's loss was at home, and OSU's loss was on the road. Regarding PU, they are likely the best 6 loss team, and had wins over 3 top 25 teams. Not your typical 6-6 dog. 4 of their losses were by 4pts or less. What OK does have going for them IMO, is that they beat a common opponent (TCU) by more.