2016 Presidential Horse Race

2016 Presidential Horse Race


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tussin

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Bill's speech was OK -- his typical narrative driven story that was 20 minutes too long. What I can't believe is that the DNC had President Clinton give a 45 minute speech and then immediately followed that up with an Alicia Keys concert.

Somewhat unrelated but funniest moment of the night was when some CNN commenter said: "He's clearly still in love with this woman. He's smitten." Surprised that a "political analyst" can be that stupid.
 

gkIrish

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The drawback to alternative vote is that in practice it's way too hard for a large electorate to actually execute correctly. The sheer amount of added time it would take on election day for people to rank all their preference is a hurdle, and then there's the whole mass of people too stupid to understand how to do it that would bog it all down.

Plurality runoff (in "primary season" at least) would work if the system was reorganized... instead of a bunch of Tuesdays, stretched out over months you could have a nationwide primary day at the start that pairs it down to maybe 3-5 candidates a side. Then you have a break of one month for debates, then you do it again. Then you have a top two and do another break of one month, and then the nominee is one of those two in the final go round.

It would deemphasize "early" states and fix like 99.9% of the problems with caucuses and primaries and all that other broken shit that gave us Trump/Clinton.

To me that method would still lead to the Spoiler Effect discussed in the first video during the latter stages.

Example:

5 Republican candidates: A,B,C,D,E.

The runoff will eliminate the 3 candidates with the lowest votes.

Person X prefers the candidates in this order:
C
B
D
A
E

Based on polls and television predictions, Person X believes D will definitely be one of the 2 moving on but A and E are in a tight race for the second spot. X votes for A to make sure E (his least favorite candidate) doesn't move on in the runoff. If he could have ranked preferences, he would have voted C, B, D.

Say there are millions of people who feel like X. Maybe they prefer B, C, D instead. Either way, if enough people like C or B, C or B would get in ahead of D and X would never have to vote for A or E.
 

wizards8507

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he acquired wealth through salary. there is no story there.
Are you kidding me? He acquired wealth through his salary as a so-called "public SERVANT." There should be no possible way for a career politician to become wealthy in this country.
 

gkIrish

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Are you kidding me? He acquired wealth through his salary as a so-called "public SERVANT." There should be no possible way for a career politician to become wealthy in this country.

Income is a pretty stupid way to define "wealth." I make 6 figures but have so much debt and so many expenses as a single man living in a city far from my family that my net income is almost 0. I am part of the top 10% but my lifestyle does not match that.
 

Irish#1

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yeah you could look at it that way or else it shows incredible humility to put his ideals and his aspirations to bed to save America from Donald Trump?

I had to laugh at this.

Trump or Clinton? Let's see, do I want to get burned at the stake or just thrown into the fire?
 

kmoose

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he acquired wealth through salary. there is no story there.

You said he wasn't rich, so I provided a Forbes article that states that he is in the Top 4% of earners. I consider the top 4% of earners to be rich. And I think most other people do, as well.
 

dublinirish

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Are you kidding me? He acquired wealth through his salary as a so-called "public SERVANT." There should be no possible way for a career politician to become wealthy in this country.

so he should work for free?

His net worth is in line with Joe Biden's, a fellow career politician.
 

tussin

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You said he wasn't rich, so I provided a Forbes article that states that he is in the Top 4% of earners. I consider the top 4% of earners to be rich. And I think most other people do, as well.

I don't.

How much money do you have saved? What does your personal balance sheet look like? Are you independently wealthy to the point of not having to realistically worry about money?

I think those are more important factors than simple headline salary.
 

Ndaccountant

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he acquired wealth through salary. there is no story there.

Rich / wealth can be both the same thing and different things, it depends on who you ask. In the form of American politics, the term rich is thrown around when talking about taxation, which obviously centers on yearly earnings. Based on that definition, he is rich, at least in the eyes of the average American. New worth is something different and it depends on your perception. Based on research from Pew and others, $750K+ household net worth is generally considered rich. I believe Bern's household net worth has been pegged at ~$1.5M, since most of the assets are held in his wife's name.

There is no denying his wealth falls well short of the Clinton's, Trump's, Romney's or Obama's of the world. Hell, he could have marginal wealth compared to all members on Congress. But that speaks to the insane amount of money flowing thru D.C. and doesn't preclude Bern from being "rich" compared to the average American.
 

dublinirish

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You said he wasn't rich, so I provided a Forbes article that states that he is in the Top 4% of earners. I consider the top 4% of earners to be rich. And I think most other people do, as well.

the median net worth of a member of congress is 1million+.
in the senate it's 2.8million.

he's the poorest candidate to run for president in years!
 

pkt77242

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Are you kidding me? He acquired wealth through his salary as a so-called "public SERVANT." There should be no possible way for a career politician to become wealthy in this country.

LOL. Why can't a politician who is smart with their money, after many years of working and saving become rich? Don't we want our politicians to be fiscally smart with their own money as well?
 

wizards8507

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so he should work for free?

His net worth is in line with Joe Biden's, a fellow career politician.

LOL. Why can't a politician who is smart with their money, after many years of working and saving become rich? Don't we want our politicians to be fiscally smart with their own money as well?
A United States Senator makes $175,000 per year. That's obscene.
 

Wild Bill

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I think it's fair to consider when he started working too. How would the average person do if they started working and saving at the age of 39?
 

dublinirish

Everestt Gholstonson
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so you all are saying politicians in general are paid too much?

don't understand how you are spinning this against bernie
 

RDU Irish

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IMO, plurality runoff is the way to go for primaries... and/or the general if we got rid of the stupid AF electoral college.

Simple fix for general election to make it all more competitive - allocate electoral votes to that which they are created. Two for each senate seat (state overall vote) and one to each congressional district. Suddenly CA,TX, NY become more interesting and politicians might have to run an actual national campaign instead of pandering to the handful of swing states that make or break every election. Voter fraud in Philly or Milwaukee becomes less damaging to the overall system - much easier to stuff a ballot box in a few strongholds to swing a state than to try and get away with that shit in every district. Gerrymandering problems are legit criticism of this approach though.

As for primary voting - I agree on picking a top two or three in crowded fields would greatly help thin the herd. Much less complicated than the caucus format (which I think gets a bad rap). Something like 2/3, 1/3 weighting for #1 vs #2 and leaving blank #2 does not increase the weighting of #1. Over 10 in the mix and you probably need to pick a top 3 weighted something like 50%, 30%, 20%.

Disagree with the national primary days format - huge expense and smaller states stand to get steam rolled.
 

Whiskeyjack

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A United States Senator makes $175,000 per year. That's obscene.

But it's a pittance compared to the sort of wealth owned by those who lobby for political favors in DC. Those with money want power, and those with power want money; it's a constant temptation for our elected officials.

The two most obvious solutions are to make our federal legislators a lot less powerful (reducing the incentive to lobby), or to pay them a lot more money (reducing their incentive to take bribes). Either way, "getting the money out of politics" is a joke.
 

RDU Irish

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LOL. Why can't a politician who is smart with their money, after many years of working and saving become rich? Don't we want our politicians to be fiscally smart with their own money as well?

Relative to his earnings he hasn't saved well - you have to admit he has not made good personal financial decisions! Then again he doesn't have to because of the generous pensions him and his wife have locked up - or you could say fell into. They don't need a dime of savings and they will experience a WELL above average retirement - that level of coddling does not exist in the private sector (anymore).
 

ACamp1900

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LOL. Why can't a politician who is smart with their money, after many years of working and saving become rich? Don't we want our politicians to be fiscally smart with their own money as well?

Far too many of them are smart at hiding how they obtain their wealth, and absolutely horrid at being fiscally wise with our tax dollars...
 

phgreek

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Income is a pretty stupid way to define "wealth." I make 6 figures but have so much debt and so many expenses as a single man living in a city far from my family that my net income is almost 0. I am part of the top 10% but my lifestyle does not match that.

It will...if you stay disciplined, the speed with which you gather wealth picks up. Once you service debt, and get your earning power in a decent cost of living space, things take off...quickly.

Do I think he did what he did in a piggy bank...no. Do I think he is as stinky about investments as others, no. You have people like Bern who benefit from who they come to know...like say someone far better at money strategy than what you and I might find. Thats not his fault. There are those who use their position as a crowbar (Harry Reid). I could be wrong, but I don't think thats what Bernie did. It is not hard to amass a couple Million between the age of 32 and 72 if you and a spouse make good money, and don't incur a bunch of debt.
 

wizards8507

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The two most obvious solutions are to make our federal legislators a lot less powerful (reducing the incentive to lobby), or to pay them a lot more money (reducing their incentive to take bribes). Either way, "getting the money out of politics" is a joke.
Agreed with the former. The latter fixes the agency problem for those who are already public servants but creates a new perverse incentive for private citizens to enter public service in the first place.
 

connor_in

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">In his DNC speech Bill Clinton really humanized his wife. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/changemaker?src=hash">#changemaker</a> <a href="https://t.co/KcSJi8PP0H">pic.twitter.com/KcSJi8PP0H</a></p>— Laura Ingraham (@IngrahamAngle) <a href="https://twitter.com/IngrahamAngle/status/758278835833974784">July 27, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 

woolybug25

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Your point does not change the fact some of those tweets are pretty damn funny.

I am sure you have never used similar sights with a leftist view which probably encompass 99% of those in existence.

I thought all of the tweets were mouth breathing hee-haw's that had very little comedic value. But to each his own...

I also don't "read" these type of "articles" regardless of political lean. Mainly because I can read and comprehend writing in more than 140 characters at a time.
 

Whiskeyjack

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Ironic, because the emails that Wikileaks has been releasing were likely obtained by the FSB in the first place. So Trump is basically asking them to keep up the good work.
 
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