2016-2017 Notre Dame Men's Basketball

[Blazers46]

Is IrishEnvy doing a bracket challenge somewhere?

 

[ACamp1900]

I mean, no reason we shouldn't be expected to reach the S16... which is a successful run for anyone any random year... it's just a matter of holding serve now...

 

[Irish#1]

ND/Princeton at 12:15 on Thursday on CBS.

Princeton typically gives everyone fits in the NCAA.

 

[IrishLion]

I'm probably in the minority, but I think it was a favor from the committee that ND is playing as a 5.

Despite facing the higher seeds, I think WVU and Gonzaga are better matchups in ND's favor than what FSU is going to be dealing with as a 3 on the lower half of the region.

Gonzaga and WVU are tough, duh, but ND has the perfect counter to what WVU wants to do. They take care of the ball, even against great defense, so you can neutralize WVU's greatest strength and watch them flounder with sloppy offensive basketball trying to keep up with ND. The only worry for me is that it gets too physical and chippy, and WVU baits ND into a real slugfest.

After that, a potential date against a recently untested Gonzaga team isn't as daunting as it first looks, IMO, and isn't much more difficult than FSU getting Arizona, or upset-minded VCU/Xavier/Maryland.

Hell, I'd be wayyyyyy more nervous about a first-round matchup with Dunk City than I am about Princeton.

Based on style of play, and the Cinderella potential that FSU is going to be fighting against in the lower half, I like where ND is.

 

[NDGOLDEN]

I'm probably in the minority, but I think it was a favor from the committee that ND is playing as a 5.

Despite facing the higher seeds, I think WVU and Gonzaga are better matchups in ND's favor than what FSU is going to be dealing with as a 3 on the lower half of the region.

Gonzaga and WVU are tough, duh, but ND has the perfect counter to what WVU wants to do. They take care of the ball, even against great defense, so you can neutralize WVU's greatest strength and watch them flounder with sloppy offensive basketball trying to keep up with ND. The only worry for me is that it gets too physical and chippy, and WVU baits ND into a real slugfest.

After that, a potential date against a recently untested Gonzaga team isn't as daunting as it first looks, IMO, and isn't much more difficult than FSU getting Arizona, or upset-minded VCU/Xavier/Maryland.

Hell, I'd be wayyyyyy more nervous about a first-round matchup with Dunk City than I am about Princeton.

Based on style of play, and the Cinderella potential that FSU is going to be fighting against in the lower half, I like where ND is.

Yup I agree. When I saw gonzaga as the 1 I knew zona would be the 2 so I was hoping for us to be the 4 or 5 and we are so no complaining here.
A lot of analysts have us getting to sweet sixteen pretty easily and then I think its probably 50-50 for us in the elite eight.
I think we can definatly get to the elite eight and hopefully zona gets upset on the way to the elite eight cause I don't think we could beat zona

 

[Henges24]

I like where we are at. Definitely think we could make it to the Elite 8 again. We should be able to beat WVU as long as we can get past Princeton first. I do have a weird feeling about the Princeton game, though. I just hope Brey is finally past that stage to where he should win the games we should, which does look to be the case :knock on wood:.

 

[arrowryan]

Princeton stat leaders:

PPG: Devin Cannady with 13.7
RPG: Spencer Weisz with 5.4
APG: Spencer Weisz with 4.2
FGP: Peter Miller with 54.8

For some reason, they have 20 guys on their roster. Their two big guys (6'10" and 6'11") don't average more than 15 mites a game. Other than that, they're nothing special on paper.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Princeton stat leaders:

PPG: Devin Cannady with 13.7
RPG: Spencer Weisz with 5.4
APG: Spencer Weisz with 4.2
FGP: Peter Miller with 54.8

For some reason, they have 20 guys on their roster. Their two big guys (6'10" and 6'11") don't average more than 15 mites a game. Other than that, they're nothing special on paper.

Statistically, there are like a mirror image of ND.....
Tigers
EFG% - 53.5%
3pt% - 38.1%
3ptm/gm - 9.9
Shooting Effic - 1.119
Off Reb % - 22.5%
Def Reb % - 77.5%
TO / game - 9.9
TO % - 13.5%

Irish
EFG% - 54.0%
3pt% - 38.6%
3ptm/gm - 9.4
Shooting Effic - 1.149
Off Reb % - 24.8%
Def Reb % - 70.7%
TO / game - 9.5
TO % - 12.2%


The biggest things I see (not accounting for schedule strength) is that Princeton will play at a slower pace and will simply not shoot themselves in the foot, whether that is via fouls, turnovers or giving up offensive rebounds.

For the Irish, the strategy will be simple.....defend the 3pt line like crazy and push the pace. Princeton doesn't foul much but they are actually worse than ND at drawing fouls and getting to the line -- and if you have been reading my previous posts, ND's lackluster aggression and low FT attempts has been a pet peeve of mine all year. ND will win this game if they get to 70 pts. Princeton does not have the fire power to score like that, unless they are scorching hot from 3pt land.

 

[irishfan]

Princeton stat leaders:

PPG: Devin Cannady with 13.7
RPG: Spencer Weisz with 5.4
APG: Spencer Weisz with 4.2
FGP: Peter Miller with 54.8

For some reason, they have 20 guys on their roster. Their two big guys (6'10" and 6'11") don't average more than 15 mites a game. Other than that, they're nothing special on paper.

They play a slow pace. They rebound and defend pretty well and their offense is fairly dependent on shooting the 3. We actually have attempted and made more 3s than them this year though, so I don't see that being a great equalizer for them.

We're only losing this game if we have one of those days where we go 5/25 from 3 and they shoot close to .500 from there. That with their slower pace would beat us. We seem to have a decent advantage on them in every area of the game.

Looking at their OOC schedule, here were their marquee games:

BYU beat them 82-73
Lehigh beat them 76-67
VCU beat them 81-70
Cal beat them 62-51
St. Joes beat them 76-68
Monmouth beat them 96-90

Princeton did beat Bucknell 72-70, but that was their best win of the season.

They're decent and can beat us, but they're going to have to play out of their minds to do so.

 

[Ndaccountant]

One other factoid - Princeton gets 41.9% of their points from 3 pointers. To put that in perspective, we all know ND is reliant on the 3 as well, but their % is 36.2. BTW, Princeton's 41.9% is the highest for teams making the field. The only other team over 40% is Vandy and they have 15 losses on the year.......

 

[ACamp1900]

Princeton stat leaders:

PPG: Devin Cannady with 13.7
RPG: Spencer Weisz with 5.4
APG: Spencer Weisz with 4.2
FGP: Peter Miller with 54.8

For some reason, they have 20 guys on their roster. Their two big guys (6'10" and 6'11") don't average more than 15 mites a game. Other than that, they're nothing special on paper.

Screw this time change... I'm half awake and read this like, "Princeton has two fools with the exact same name... wtf???"

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Screw this time change... I'm half awake and read this like, "Princeton has two fools with the exact same name... wtf???"

They are probably twins.

 

[BabyIrish]

I'm with Lax in this one. Watching them play Yale yesterday, there is absolutely no reason Farrell, Beachem, Vasturia, and Gibbs can't get to the hole every time. Just drive the heck out of these guys, get fouls or kick out for threes and we should win.

 

[ShawneeIrish]

5 seed is Bs but Ill take our draw all day. Princeton is an Ivy league team, never an easy out but we will be more athletic than our opponent. WVU thrives on creating turnovers and struggles to score, great matchup fpr us. If Zags make it to Sweet 16 I would rather play them for a spot in Elite Eight than any of the other 1 seeds pr 2 seeds for that matter. Zona is the toughest matchup between ND and Final Four imo. Compare our road to UK for example. They have potential matchup with Wichits St round 2 and have UNC and UCLA in their region. I would much rather have our draw as a 5 than UK as a 2.

 

[Buster Bluth]

5 seed is Bs but Ill take our draw all day. Princeton is an Ivy league team, never an easy out but we will be more athletic than our opponent. WVU thrives on creating turnovers and struggles to score, great matchup fpr us. If Zags make it to Sweet 16 I would rather play them for a spot in Elite Eight than any of the other 1 seeds pr 2 seeds for that matter. Zona is the toughest matchup between ND and Final Four imo. Compare our road to UK for example. They have potential matchup with Wichits St round 2 and have UNC and UCLA in their region. I would much rather have our draw as a 5 than UK as a 2.

Why do you say this?

 

[Ndaccountant]

Why do you say this?

Gonzaga
Arizona
Kansas
Nova
Duke
UNC
Kentucky
L'ville

Statistically, the Zags are off the charts this year. But, those measurements can only go so far. Of the teams listed above, they probably have the least amount of overall team athleticism. They win by playing together and executing. When it comes to ND, I would much prefer playing a team that is reliant on execution versus a team that has multiple NBA players.

Look at the last few years when ND has made their runs....wins were versus teams like SFA, Butler, Wichita State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Northeastern. Loses against UNC and Kentucky.

I am not saying ND can't beat a Kansas or UNC or Arizona, but the margin of error is much smaller due to the overall talent gap. Brey does a remarkable job using coaching and scheme to neutralize, but that can get trumped by sheer talent.

 

[irishfan]

Gonzaga
Arizona
Kansas
Nova
Duke
UNC
Kentucky
L'ville

Statistically, the Zags are off the charts this year. But, those measurements can only go so far. Of the teams listed above, they probably have the least amount of overall team athleticism. They win by playing together and executing. When it comes to ND, I would much prefer playing a team that is reliant on execution versus a team that has multiple NBA players.

Look at the last few years when ND has made their runs....wins were versus teams like SFA, Butler, Wichita State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Northeastern. Loses against UNC and Kentucky.

I am not saying ND can't beat a Kansas or UNC or Arizona, but the margin of error is much smaller due to the overall talent gap. Brey does a remarkable job using coaching and scheme to neutralize, but that can get trumped by sheer talent.

It gets overstated every year, but the SOS is just such a big factor, too. If we get to the Sweet 16, we will be the most talented team that Gonzaga has seen since December 3rd (Arizona).

They have played #7 St. Mary's three times since then. That's it for tourney teams.

We've played 15 such games in that time period.

#1 Nova
#4 Purdue
#2 Louisville (twice)
#8 Miami
#9 Virginia Tech
#3 FSU (three times)
#5 Virginia (twice)
#2 Duke (twice)
#1 UNC
#11 Wake

 

[Ndaccountant]

It gets overstated every year, but the SOS is just such a big factor. If we get to the Sweet 16, we will be the most talented team that Gonzaga has seen since December 3rd (Arizona).

They have played #7 St. Mary's three times since then. That's it for tourney teams.

We've played 15 such games in that time period.

#1 Nova
#4 Purdue
#2 Louisville (twice)
#8 Miami
#9 Virginia Tech
#3 FSU (three times)
#5 Virginia (twice)
#2 Duke (twice)
#1 UNC
#11 Wake

Absolutely....we would have that going for us as well. Gonzaga is really good, but so is ND. Both of those squads are very good but for different reasons compared to everyone else on that list.

 

[IrishLion]

It gets overstated every year, but the SOS is just such a big factor, too. If we get to the Sweet 16, we will be the most talented team that Gonzaga has seen since December 3rd (Arizona).

This is legitimately why I feel ND got a huge break as a 5, and why FSU as a 3 is not a position I'd want to be in.

Not sure if it was intentional or not, but it's crazy how getting seeded lower could be an advantage based on the situation.

 

[koonja]

Have not seen the Zags play all year. Can we beat them?

Same with West Virginia - how do we stack up against them?

 

[IrishLion]

Have not seen the Zags play all year. Can we beat them?

Same with West Virginia - how do we stack up against them?

Don't make dumb turnovers against Gonzaga or have major defensive breakdowns occur often, and ND can beat them if they shoot well from 3.

As for WVU, don't turn the ball over and ND should be able to out-pace them.

*just my opinions, of course. There are those that follow basketball much more closely than I

 

[Crazy Balki]

Have not seen the Zags play all year. Can we beat them?

Same with West Virginia - how do we stack up against them?

Absolutely, but they are a very disciplined team. Good but not battle tested. So far, their biggest test was months ago vs Zona and that was without Trier.

Vs WVU, we are a matchup nightmare for them. They are reliant on forcing teams to make mistakes. ND is the most efficient team WV will have played. Their aggression on defense also puts the other team on the line often, which ND can exploit easily.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Have not seen the Zags play all year. Can we beat them?

Same with West Virginia - how do we stack up against them?

WVU tries to do what ND did to Duke on Saturday.....use TO's and rebounding to create more scoring chances than the opposition. For the year, they are averaging nearly 12 more scoring chances per game than their opponents. If you imagine they have a 50% conversion rate on those chances, that is at least 12 points per game difference, which is what generates W's. On Saturday, ND had 14 more scoring chances than Duke, which is a massive difference and requires a statistically high shooting rate difference to lose (which is what happened - Duke made 72% of two point tries and had an effective FG % of 66% while ND effective FG% was 40%).

This is best highlighted by WVU's last two games against Iowa State over the past two weeks. In their first meeting, WVU won the game and won the offensive rebounding battle (17-5) and lost the TO battle (14-13). Both teams had nearly the same effective FG% for the game, so WVU had 11 more scoring chances and won the game by 11.

This weekend, they played again and this time was different. WVU lost the offensive rebounding edge (6-8) and lost the TO game (11-13). Despite having an effective FG% of 59%, WVU lost even though Iowa State shot just 31% from 3.

 

[irish4ever]

It gets overstated every year, but the SOS is just such a big factor, too. If we get to the Sweet 16, we will be the most talented team that Gonzaga has seen since December 3rd (Arizona).

They have played #7 St. Mary's three times since then. That's it for tourney teams.

We've played 15 such games in that time period.

#1 Nova
#4 Purdue
#2 Louisville (twice)
#8 Miami
#9 Virginia Tech
#3 FSU (three times)
#5 Virginia (twice)
#2 Duke (twice)
#1 UNC
#11 Wake

ND beats F$U 2 out of 3, takes the ACC championship game down to the wire, yet F$U gets a 3 seed while ND gets a 5 seed. WTF!?!

 

[yankeeND]

Does anyone else feel like we were Thon Maker away from winning it all this year? Not saying it still isn't possible, but if we could have just landed one athletic C to this group, it really could have been special. Brey does such a great job of developing talent, but it is still hard when the best players go else where every year. Still, what a joy it is to watch these Brey led teams over the last several years.

 

[ACamp1900]

Does anyone else feel like we were Thon Maker away from winning it all this year?

I have been playing the 'what if' game on this all year....

 

[yankeeND]

I have been playing the 'what if' game on this all year....

Ok good, I'm not crazy, well... lol

It's just that Brey's teams out perform expectations nearly every year now, and 1 blue-chip addition at the 4 or 5, 6'10"+ seems like it would be a game changer. We just tend to get beat up o the boards to often.

 

[ACamp1900]

It's just that Brey's teams out perform expectations nearly every year now,...

It's so funny how the tourney shapes everything... there were many on this very board who year after year wanted Brey's head because we couldn't win tourney games... now????

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

Have not seen the Zags play all year. Can we beat them?

Same with West Virginia - how do we stack up against them?

I've watch Gonzaga multiple times, and they are really good at all positions. They have to really good bigs: a mountain of a beard from Poland, and a Freshman from Bishop Gorman. If we get that far and play them, it is possible we can win. I think the key will be pulling their big guys out to the 3 point line on defense. I am sure we can get open 3 look with our small line up and then drive to the hoop against either the guards or a mismatch with the basket unprotected due to the spread. St. Mary's had success when their big guy from Australia was making strong post moves and 5-8 foot hooks and jumpers. Can Bonzie do it? It will be hard, but I've seen him do it all year. Would be a fun game to watch.

 

[yankeeND]

It's so funny how the tourney shapes everything... there were many on this very board who year after year wanted Brey's head because we couldn't win tourney games... now????

You know how fans are lol. I think this is where I am with the football team though... just tired of watching them stay stagnant. 2012 was fools gold me thinks.