College Football Playoff Rankings 2015 (ND #8...)

[IrishLax]

Lmao I love that argument. TCU sucks because they blow out shitty teams. What are we, when we can't even do that?

....they don't blow out shitty teams. They almost lose to the shittiest of shitty teams.

Besides they chaos of Virginia where we blew a 2 score lead in the 4th after Zaire went down and we had no idea what to do with Kizer, what shitty teams have almost beaten us? I mean, really legitimately had it come down to the wire where they had a high probability of winning throughout the 4th right up to the end.

 

[tussin]

Lmao I love that argument. TCU sucks because they blow out shitty teams. What are we, when we can't even do that?

This really shouldn't be an ND / TCU comparison, but alas:

The argument is that TCU blows out shitty, non-conference teams but every time they play a somewhat decent team they struggle. Like the games against Minnesota, TTU, Kansas State, Kansas (not even a good team), Oklahoma State, and Baylor. Their only impressive performances are against Texas and WVU.

By comparison, we have beat teams that are actually good. Our performances against Navy, Temple, USC, Pitt, and Clemson are more impressive than anything TCU has done all year.

Fun fact, TCU hasn't taken down a team with more than 6 wins all year. They are not a good team and shouldn't be considered quality win.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

With or without Doctson and Boykin?

Without, I'll take Temple to win by at least a TD. With, I'd make TCU a slight favorite.

TCU has almost lost to:
-Texas Tech... deflected pass miracle on 4th down and goal.
-Kansas... fucking Kansas.
-Kansas State... needed a very late rally, gave up 45 points to a very bad offense.
-Minnesota... slog of a game.

And they got blown out by an Oklahoma State team that isn't great, and would've been blown out by healthy Oklahoma.

So I don't really know where people get the idea that TCU is good, besides last year where they kicked ass.

Great post. And I will further your hypothesis, and take all the grief anyone wants to dish out, and add to it by saying that I don't think Oklahoma is that great. Name their great victories : Tennessee? The one most point to but really, don't we all agree that the Vols have been inconsistent at best this year? TCU? Akron? Baylor with their injuries? Texas? Oops!

 

[koonja]

So you know how B1G got 'hosed' in the initial rankings because the committee couldn't point to any big wins? Maybe they're looking at us the same going into this week. Navy win looks good, but no matter what Navy is ranked that's not going to open many eyes.

My feeling was the committee always liked Baylor and Oklahoma, but needed to see more. Maybe they actually like us enough to put them in, but since our schedule hasn't turned out that impressive at the top, they want to see one more? And if we prove we have an even win, same with Oklahoma, we're in?

IDK, California dreaming over here

 

[BeauBenken]

So Mike Tranghese was sick and couldn't travel and only 11 members voted. Could that explain some of the huge swings? Could it swing back the other way next week with a full committee voting if ND looks more impressive beating Stanford than OU looks against OSU? Gonna be a lot of drama either way! Just win and let it sort itself out.

Wait. What?

Is this a real thing? In a day and age where you can talk to someone on a projector screen like you're sitting in the damn Starship Enterprise, we had one of the committee members not cast their vote?

Holy shit, that's screwed up.

 

[IrishLax]

Wait. What?

Is this a real thing? In a day and age where you can talk to someone on a projector screen like you're sitting in the damn Starship Enterprise, we had one of the committee members not cast their vote?

Holy shit, that's screwed up.

This 12 person committee where like half the committee has athletic conference affiliations is just beyond fucked. They need to tear it down, or go to a system where each conference champion gets an auto bid and everyone after that is evaluated fairly.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Wait. What?

Is this a real thing? In a day and age where you can talk to someone on a projector screen like you're sitting in the damn Starship Enterprise, we had one of the committee members not cast their vote?

Holy shit, that's screwed up.

Indeed. Something's not right there.

 

[ozzman]

Indeed. Something's not right there.

they're just making up the rules as they go along. complete and utter bullshit

 

[GoIrish41]

Wait. What?

Is this a real thing? In a day and age where you can talk to someone on a projector screen like you're sitting in the damn Starship Enterprise, we had one of the committee members not cast their vote?

Holy shit, that's screwed up.

This system has been stupid from the get go. Having a panel of people decide based on their weekly whims and biases is just an absurd way to decide who gets into the playoffs. I liked the BCS system better, with a variety of polls and formats combined for checks and balances. Why not use that formula to pick the four (or better, 8) teams to make the playoffs? It beats a committee member having the flu as the reason someone does not get in. Christ this system is dumb!

 

[NDShark]

This 12 person committee where like half the committee has athletic conference affiliations is just beyond fucked. They need to tear it down, or go to a system where each conference champion gets an auto bid and everyone after that is evaluated fairly.

"evaluated fairly" is the difficult part to figure out. There really needs to be a set of defined and agreed upon criteria that are indisputable in determining how teams are ranked at the end of the season. In the past, this has included a human element, and I do think we can have a fair evaluation with subjectivity, but there at least needs to be a defined pecking order of importance (not saying this is correct but an example would be: win/loss record, strength of schedule, top 25 wins, S&P+, etc.). With a defined list like that, everyone can at least arrive in a similar place as to how the top teams should stack up. There would be some close calls as there are today, but there wouldn't be so much damn ambiguity around things like "eye test" and "SOS" like there are with the CFP. Clearly, the committee doesn't care too much about SOS or Ohio State wouldn't have been in the top 4 earlier.

 

[IrishLax]

This system has been stupid from the get go. Having a panel of people decide based on their weekly whims and biases is just an absurd way to decide who gets into the playoffs. I liked the BCS system better, with a variety of polls and formats combined for checks and balances. Why not use that formula to pick the four (or better, 8) teams to make the playoffs? It beats a committee member having the flu as the reason someone does not get in. Christ this system is dumb!

Like does anyone doubt at this point that computers (NOT FPI... an aggregate of metrics unaffiliated with ESPN) + a media poll wouldn't do a better job than what we're seeing? The biggest flaw with the BCS was the coaches poll and vote rigging.

 

[irishff1014]

With or without Doctson and Boykin?

Without, I'll take Temple to win by at least a TD. With, I'd make TCU a slight favorite.

TCU has almost lost to:
-Texas Tech... deflected pass miracle on 4th down and goal.
-Kansas... fucking Kansas.
-Kansas State... needed a very late rally, gave up 45 points to a very bad offense.
-Minnesota... slog of a game.

And they got blown out by an Oklahoma State team that isn't great, and would've been blown out by healthy Oklahoma.

So I don't really know where people get the idea that TCU is good, besides last year where they kicked ass.

I don't agree with this. But TCU has been a flip of a coin difference. Used to have ok offense good defense no its the complete opposite.

 

[koonja]

Seriously, how is this not taken into account.

https://twitter.com/FakeBigHarry/status/669544205686071296

 

[autry_denson]

Seems straightforward to me given that everyone who we're jockeying with will play at least one more high quality opponent from here forward.

- ND needs to win, hopefully convincingly
- ND needs two teams ahead of us to lose - we're not jumping Oklahoma or Iowa if they win out
- ND needs to hope that OSU and Baylor don't jump us, which is a legitimate threat

A lot has to happen for ND to get in, but in truth a lot is going to happen given how many of the top 10 have tough games ahead of them. ND hasn't looked like a top 4 team in a while, so there's not a strong complaint to be made unless a team like OSU slips in ahead of us. In that case, I'll be pissed - beyond that scenario, I think it's hard to make a case that ND should be in a better position than they're in.

 

[phgreek]

Wait. What?

Is this a real thing? In a day and age where you can talk to someone on a projector screen like you're sitting in the damn Starship Enterprise, we had one of the committee members not cast their vote?

Holy shit, that's screwed up.

Yea...how sick do you have to be to be rendered unable to get your ranking in...maybe they have rules about having to be present during deliberations...discussions??? IDK. I do know if they don't, its pretty tough to justify not putting in your "lineup".

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Seems straightforward to me given that everyone who we're jockeying with will play at least one more high quality opponent from here forward.

- ND needs to win, hopefully convincingly
- ND needs two teams ahead of us to lose - we're not jumping Oklahoma or Iowa if they win out
- ND needs to hope that OSU and Baylor don't jump us, which is a legitimate threat

A lot has to happen for ND to get in, but in truth a lot is going to happen given how many of the top 10 have tough games ahead of them. ND hasn't looked like a top 4 team in a while, so there's not a strong complaint to be made unless a team like OSU slips in ahead of us. In that case, I'll be pissed - beyond that scenario, I think it's hard to make a case that ND should be in a better position than they're in.

I don't buy this motto that OU is in over ND if they win this weekend. Here's why:

There is a hypothetical scenario that's very realistic in that a win over Stanford plus Pitt ending up ranked will give ND four Top 25 wins. Oklahoma can only get to three (if TCU stays ranked after a probable loss to Baylor this week....TCU sucks this year). If by some chance the committee drops TCU out after a loss, OU will only have two Top 25 wins. They also have a weaker SOS than ND. They have a worse loss. That loss just so happens to be a common opponent in which ND won (margin of victory is not considered here based on committee protocol). There is literally 0% chance that OU gets in ahead of ND if this scenario plays out as described UNLESS there is some serious anti-ND bias taking place behind closed doors.

 

[GoIrish41]

Like does anyone doubt at this point that computers (NOT FPI... an aggregate of metrics unaffiliated with ESPN) + a media poll wouldn't do a better job than what we're seeing? The biggest flaw with the BCS was the coaches poll and vote rigging.

Yeah. I'd scrap the coaches poll and use something else in its place, but the appearance of subjectivity and personal bias in the current system is going to be a problem year after year.

 

[irishfan]

Anyone think we can jump OU even if they win? Maybe if we end the season with 5 ranked opponents? Could happen. Pitt at 9-3 (favored by 6 this week) would almost definitely end up in the final rankings. Navy and Stanford are seemingly locks to finish ranked. If Temple beats UCONN this week and beats Navy/Houston in the AAC Championship then they will finish ranked. If USC can beat UCLA this week (favored by 3) and Stanford next week, they'll be ranked for sure.

Might be enough to jump OU even if they finish 11-1. The committee would really have to bend over backwards to rank Tennessee or WVU it seems like, and 9-3 Pitt could even be ahead of 9-3 TCU if they lose badly this Friday.

They talk about wins over top-25 opponents every week...would look very odd for them to leave ND out if we finish with 4 or 5 of those wins compared to OU having 3 and Bama finishing with most likely 2.

 

[koonja]

I asked before the committee and never understood, why'd they have to go away from the BCS, as well as expand to a playoff at the same time?

Why not go incremental and see how it goes - expand it to a 4 team playoff but use the BCS standings. Top 4 are in.

If for some reason that proves silly, then establish the human committee.

 

[tussin]

I asked before the committee and never understood, why'd they have to go away from the BCS, as well as expand to a playoff at the same time?

Why not go incremental and see how it goes - expand it to a 4 team playoff but use the BCS standings. Top 4 are in.

If for some reason that proves silly, then establish the human committee.

I agree with this. Can anyone really remember a time when the BCS didn't get the Top 2 teams right?

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Anyone think we can jump OU if they win? Maybe if we end the season with 5 ranked opponents? Could happen. Pitt at 9-3 (favored by 6 this week) would almost definitely end up in the final rankings. Navy and Stanford are seemingly locks to finish ranked. If Temple beats UCONN this week and beats Navy/Houston in the AAC Championship then they will finish ranked. If USC can beat UCLA this week (favored by 3) and Stanford next week, they'll be ranked for sure.

Might be enough to jump OU even if they finish 11-1. The committee would really have to bend over backwards to rank Tennessee it seems like, and 9-3 Pitt could even be ahead of 9-3 TCU if they lose badly this Friday.

I just posted a similar thought process. I forgot about USC though.

I'm in the camp that is not impressed with the Big12. I like OU. I watch their games. There's no question they're a good team. But people can't objectively say that OU is a shoe-in if they win. There's a real possibility that ND has a much better resume when this is said and done.

 

[wizards8507]

Anyone think we can jump OU even if they win? Maybe if we end the season with 5 ranked opponents? Could happen. Pitt at 9-3 (favored by 6 this week) would almost definitely end up in the final rankings. Navy and Stanford are seemingly locks to finish ranked. If Temple beats UCONN this week and beats Navy/Houston in the AAC Championship then they will finish ranked. If USC can beat UCLA this week (favored by 3) and Stanford next week, they'll be ranked for sure.

Might be enough to jump OU even if they finish 11-1. The committee would really have to bend over backwards to rank Tennessee or WVU it seems like, and 9-3 Pitt could even be ahead of 9-3 TCU if they lose badly this Friday.

They talk about wins over top-25 opponents every week...would look very odd for them to leave ND out if we finish with 4 or 5 of those wins compared to OU having 3 and Bama finishing with most likely 2.

I think our game and the Oklahoma game are the only thing that matters. I doubt we jump them based on what Pitt or anyone else do. I think we only jump them if we look more impressive in our victory than they do.

 

[woolybug25]

I agree with this. Can anyone really remember a time when the BCS didn't get the Top 2 teams right?

That's pretty subjective, as there is literally no way to know that for certain. I would argue that last year the BCS wouldn't have put OSU in the championship game. So they would have gotten that wrong.

I would also argue that they possibly got it wrong with us in '12. If someone deep dived into every year, i'm sure there are plenty of arguments of getting the top two wrong.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I think our game and the Oklahoma game are the only thing that matters. I doubt we jump them based on what Pitt or anyone else do. I think we only jump them if we look more impressive in our victory than they do.

I gave a pretty specific scenario where ND should jump them. Why do you think ND won't jump them? Assuming both teams win this weekend.

 

[GoIrish41]

Anyone think we can jump OU if they win? Maybe if we end the season with 5 ranked opponents? Could happen. Pitt at 9-3 (favored by 6 this week) would almost definitely end up in the final rankings. Navy and Stanford are seemingly locks to finish ranked. If Temple beats UCONN this week and beats Navy/Houston in the AAC Championship then they will finish ranked. If USC can beat UCLA this week (favored by 3) and Stanford next week, they'll be ranked for sure.

Might be enough to jump OU even if they finish 11-1. The committee would really have to bend over backwards to rank Tennessee it seems like, and 9-3 Pitt could even be ahead of 9-3 TCU if they lose badly this Friday.

If ND and USC beat Stanford, they are no longer that significant of a win for us. I would rather USC be an also ran and Stanford finish with a win over the Trojans. I think that helps us more. I think Pitt is better than TCU and would like if they finished in the top 25. Navy or Temple winning out is a toss up on how much that would help. But if OU wins out, I think it is clear that the committee would put them above ND at this point. Gotta hope Okie lite takes them down this week.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

With or without Doctson and Boykin?

Without, I'll take Temple to win by at least a TD. With, I'd make TCU a slight favorite.

TCU has almost lost to:
-Texas Tech... deflected pass miracle on 4th down and goal.
-Kansas... fucking Kansas.
-Kansas State... needed a very late rally, gave up 45 points to a very bad offense.
-Minnesota... slog of a game.

And they got blown out by an Oklahoma State team that isn't great, and would've been blown out by healthy Oklahoma.

So I don't really know where people get the idea that TCU is good, besides last year where they kicked ass.

To the bolded...it's true. I watched. Kansas couldn't move the ball and looked like hot garbage (as they have all year). And they still nearly beat them. They had just lost Boykin, so it's a bit like our UVA. But...sheesh...

 

[koonja]

I absolutely think we can get in with an Oklahoma win. They'd need to win by ~7 or less. We'd need to win by at least that margin, much preferably more.

Other factors:

Oklahoma has some serious injury, maybe at QB/RB/Sheppard during the game. We look good with Adams and Watkins/Butler/Coleman at corner.

Out past teams show out: I don't like Pitt against Miami at all, nor do I like USC against anyone right now, especially UCLA. Temple and Navy need to hold serve, and Navy is in for a battle IMO. Almost 0% chance all of this happens, but if it does, our resume would blow theirs out of the water.

 

[GoIrish41]

That's pretty subjective, as there is literally no way to know that for certain. I would argue that last year the BCS wouldn't have put OSU in the championship game. So they would have gotten that wrong.

I would also argue that they possibly got it wrong with us in '12. If someone deep dived into every year, i'm sure there are plenty of arguments of getting the top two wrong.

Maybe, but the margin for error goes down if it is picking a top 4 or 8, doesn't it?

 

[IrishJayhawk]

That's pretty subjective, as there is literally no way to know that for certain. I would argue that last year the BCS wouldn't have put OSU in the championship game. So they would have gotten that wrong.

I would also argue that they possibly got it wrong with us in '12. If someone deep dived into every year, i'm sure there are plenty of arguments of getting the top two wrong.

There's no argument that OSU was the best team in the country at the end of the year. But there is an argument as to whether they had earned their way into the final 4, IMO.

 

[wizards8507]

Maybe, but the margin for error goes down if it is picking a top 4 or 8, doesn't it?

The margin of error goes down in terms of "who gets in," but it is unchanged as it relates to who actually wins the championship.

Championship odds for the top eight teams under a four-team playoff:

1. 25%
2. 25%
3. 25%
4. 25%
5. 0%
6. 0%
7. 0%
8. 0%

Championship odds for the top eight teams under an eight-team playoff:

1. 12.5%
2. 12.5%
3. 12.5%
4. 12.5%
5. 12.5%
6. 12.5%
7. 12.5%
8. 12.5%