ND's Path to the 2015 Playoffs

[T Town Tommy]

Don't need Bama's help, just Ole Miss'. Rebels win out and it's over.
.

I was working of the premise that LSU will beat Ole Miss... which I think is highly likely.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Stanford Cardinal football 2015: The Biggest Obstacle to Stanford’s Success Is Probability - Rule Of Tree

Probability of Stanford winning out.

Stanford football 2015: Examining the college football playoff picture - Rule Of Tree

The other P5 conference probabilities.

 

[stlnd01]

Stanford Cardinal football 2015: The Biggest Obstacle to Stanford’s Success Is Probability - Rule Of Tree

Probability of Stanford winning out.

Stanford football 2015: Examining the college football playoff picture - Rule Of Tree

The other P5 conference probabilities.

Stanford people and their damn math.
Does appear tho, that we are their biggest hurdle. As they are ours.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

I was working of the premise that LSU will beat Ole Miss... which I think is highly likely.

And if Ole Miss were to win out, it makes any undefeated AAC champion look more tempting to the committee.

 

[RDU Irish]

Stanford people and their damn math.
Does appear tho, that we are their biggest hurdle. As they are ours.

A few gems in the math:

Clemson favored 85.6% over FSU at home while NCST is 83.7% this weekend (road game) - something looks off in their Clemson stats to favor them that much over those teams. It is telling for those anti-math types here - six games never worst than 83.7% favorite equals a 50% chance of going undefeated... yeah that's how stats work.

OSU - 72% favorite AT Michigan State THEN turn around and be 26% AT Michigan the following week. WTF, that makes no sense to me.

Baylor - 94% over Texas - really? Texas only wins one out of twenty? That is the same percentage given to TCU over Kansas.

All said and done, good stuff though. Would be good to see our odds and then compare to adding another 60/40 type game as if we had a CCG to play. I think we would stack up pretty well even without the extra game.

 

[RDU Irish]

I would probably place Iowa more like 40% than 48% versus B1G east champ. No way they are even money.

 

[gkIrish]

A few gems in the math:

Clemson favored 85.6% over FSU at home while NCST is 83.7% this weekend (road game) - something looks off in their Clemson stats to favor them that much over those teams. It is telling for those anti-math types here - six games never worst than 83.7% favorite equals a 50% chance of going undefeated... yeah that's how stats work.

OSU - 72% favorite AT Michigan State THEN turn around and be 26% AT Michigan the following week. WTF, that makes no sense to me.

Baylor - 94% over Texas - really? Texas only wins one out of twenty? That is the same percentage given to TCU over Kansas.

All said and done, good stuff though. Would be good to see our odds and then compare to adding another 60/40 type game as if we had a CCG to play. I think we would stack up pretty well even without the extra game.

Wait that model says Michigan has a 74% chance to beat OSU? That's stooooopid.

 

[ACamp1900]

idk about the percentages, but tOSU is not THAT good of a team guys...

 

[RDU Irish]

If OSU is not that great it should reflect across the board with some consistency. Projected to win 3 of 4 over Michigan State but only 1 of 4 over Michigan seems like a pretty big disconnect (both are on the road).

 

[wizards8507]

If OSU is not that great it should reflect across the board with some consistency. Projected to win 3 of 4 over Michigan State but only 1 of 4 over Michigan seems like a pretty big disconnect (both are on the road).

I agree. FPI is much more realistic than whatever model that is. It gives OSU a 79% chance against Sparty and 62% against Michigan.

ETA: I still think those might be a bit high, but they at least make sense as they relate to one another.

 

[ND NYC]

only way we possibly can get in IMO:

LSU (SEC) Ohio St (Big 10) Clem (ACC) go undefeated and win their conf champ games for first 3 spots
AND
a one loss ND beats out future pac 12 champ game winner Stanford in our last game.
AND
Baylor and TCU need to EACH have minimum of one loss.

just don't see any other road in to this thing

 

[wizards8507]

only way we possibly can get in IMO:

LSU (SEC) Ohio St (Big 10) Clem (ACC) go undefeated and win their conf champ games for first 3 spots
AND
a one loss ND beats out future pac 12 champ game winner Stanford in our last game.
AND
Baylor and TCU need to each have one loss.

just don't see any other road in to this thing

Replace the bolded with:

Clemson loses to Florida State and then the ACC Atlantic champion (FSU or Clemson) loses to Pitt in the ACC conference championship game. Then it doesn't matter if the Big 12 champion gets in undefeated because the ACC will be out.

Your option is probably more likely.

 

[BobbyMac]

OSU - 72% favorite AT Michigan State THEN turn around and be 26% AT Michigan the following week. WTF, that makes no sense to me.

The game is in Columbus.

Wait that model says Michigan has a 74% chance to beat OSU? That's stooooopid.

There are no stats or assorted realities that could be fed into a computer which would result in a 74% win probability being spit out in UM's favor.

 

[Irish2155]

I just read through this thread and now my head is spinning...

 

[ulukinatme]

Replace the bolded with:

Clemson loses to Florida State and then the ACC Atlantic champion (FSU or Clemson) loses to Pitt in the ACC conference championship game. Then it doesn't matter if the Big 12 champion gets in undefeated because the ACC will be out.

Your option is probably more likely.

Yeah, you have to go with the best probability. We need either the Big 12 eventual champ to lose one, or Clemson to lose 1-2. Which is more likely, given the games left to play?

The most likely scenario is we hopefully beat Stanford and win out, Clemson wins out, Big 12 all cannibalize each other with no conference championship to fall back on. Clemson should have no problems with Pitt, if Pitt ends up winning their division. They really just have Florida State to get past.

 

[phork]

Well Pitt is being handled by UNC right now.

 

[stlnd01]

Well Pitt is being handled by UNC right now.

Yeah, I don't think we can rely on Pitt (or anyone else in that half of the ACC) to beat Clemson. Our road runs through Big 12 chaos, which seems quite possible given Baylor's hurt QB and TCU's suspect-even-by-Big-12-standards defense.

 

[BobbyMac]

Pitt down in flames. UNC still alive with one loss and a date with 6-1 Duke next week. Clemson is the route unless FSU wins it all and Clemson loses a second game.

What happens if NCSt pulls the upset in Raleigh on Saturday? Do you pull for FSU to give Clemson a second loss and lose to UF before going on to win the ACC championship with 2 losses also? The easiest thing is to ride in on the coat tails, own the PAC and wait for chaos in the B-12 and or SEC.

Hopefully the Ducks give SC some help with the ASU.

.

 

[stlnd01]

Pitt down in flames. UNC still alive with one loss and a date with 6-1 Duke next week. Clemson is the route unless FSU wins it all and Clemson loses a second game.

What happens if NCSt pulls the upset in Raleigh on Saturday? Do you pull for FSU to give Clemson a second loss and lose to UF before going on to win the ACC championship with 2 losses also? The easiest thing is to ride in on the coat tails, own the PAC and wait for chaos in the B-12 and or SEC.

Hopefully the Ducks give SC some help with the ASU.

.

If Clemson loses once then we want them to lose twice. We'll never win that head to head. But I still think it's best for us if they're undefeated.

 

[wizards8507]

Possible nightmare scenario. 11-1 North Carolina beats 12-0 Clemson in the ACC championship game. They both end at 12-1.

Would they both get in ahead of us?

 

[ACamp1900]

At this stage might it not be better if Clemson wins out? We're not getting in over a one loss Clemson ( most likely) and them being unbeaten conference champs makes our loss look much better than if they drop a game or don't win the ACC

 

[wizards8507]

At this stage might it not be better if Clemson wins out? We're not getting in over a one loss Clemson ( most likely) and them being unbeaten conference champs makes our loss look much better than if they drop a game or don't win the ACC

Losing twice would be better because then the ACC will be eliminated and we won't need to rely on chaos in the Big 12, but that probably isn't going to happen. Next-best case is undefeated conference champions. Worst-case is 12-1 conference championship losers.

 

[NDgradstudent]

Possible nightmare scenario. 11-1 North Carolina beats 12-0 Clemson in the ACC championship game. They both end at 12-1.

Would they both get in ahead of us?

Yes. We need to join the ACC or push for an eight-team playoff, now.

 

[wizards8507]

Yes. We need to join the ACC...

Are you really a Notre Dame student? Learn a thing or two about your school and its traditions before you fling crap like that. That's the kind of thing that ND football fans throw around, but students and alumni should know better.

...or push for an eight-team playoff, now.

We'd be having the exact same argument. Debating about who gets in among the 4th, 5th, and 6th teams in the country is no better or worse than debating about who gets in among the 8th, 9th, and 10th teams in the country.

 

[NDohio]

At this stage might it not be better if Clemson wins out? We're not getting in over a one loss Clemson ( most likely) and them being unbeaten conference champs makes our loss look much better than if they drop a game or don't win the ACC

AT this point I do believe this is best case.

And then we get to avenge our only loss...

 

[Woneone]

At this stage might it not be better if Clemson wins out? We're not getting in over a one loss Clemson ( most likely) and them being unbeaten conference champs makes our loss look much better than if they drop a game or don't win the ACC

I'm not sure this is indicative of the rest of the national media, but was listening to Sirius XM this morning, the college sports channel with Greg McElroy on it.

Him and his co-host were talking about ND with Phil Steele, and both of them said, on a neutral field, without a monsoon, that they'd take ND over Clemson.

Hopefully that thinking is prevalent.

 

[irishfan]

AT this point I do believe this is best case.

And then we get to avenge our only loss...

Not necessarily. We could be in the same division as Clemson.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

A quick look at the AP top 10 shows at least one representative from all five Power Conferences plus ND.

B1G: #1 OSU, #7 MSU, #10 Iowa still to play each other. Top 15 Michigan will look to spoil the parade.

Big12: #2 Baylor still has to play # 5TCU. OSU and OU are in the top 15 ready to shake up the party.

ACC: #3 Clemson seems unbeatable in the ACC. FSU and the conference championship game are their only threats. Possible, yes. But unlikely, imo, that they lose.

SEC: #4 LSU still has to play #7 Alabama. #11 UF could swoop in by winning the SEC. A problem will exist if (hypothetically) UF wins the SEC and is 11-1. LSU could also be 11-1. In this scenario LSU has the advantage in head-to-head and while currently UF has the SOS advantage, LSU's could get even better after they finish their season. Who gets in? Nightmare scenario if you ask me.

PAC12: #8 Stanford will play #9 ND. Top 15 Utah is also lurking. ND has to beat Stanford and Stanford has to beat Utah in the Pac12 CG for ND to get strong consideration, imo. If this happens, the PAC will have a two-loss champ and ND will have beaten the PAC champ (and only has one loss to the ACC champ).

 

[BobbyMac]

Yes. We need to join the ACC or push for an eight-team playoff, now.

Are you really a Notre Dame student? Learn a thing or two about your school and its traditions before you fling crap like that. That's the kind of thing that ND football fans throw around, but students and alumni should know better.

He's NDgradstudent... he hasn't been properly wiped and reformated yet.

We'd be having the exact same argument. Debating about who gets in among the 4th, 5th, and 6th teams in the country is no better or worse than debating about who gets in among the 8th, 9th, and 10th teams in the country.

This exactly. Real fans started running the scenarios as soon as time ran out in Death Valley and they continue with the process until smoke comes out of the selection committee's chimney.


*** Hey, wait a minute...

Isn't NDgradstudent the guy who argues politics from the far right side of the spectrum? This ND - conference talk sure is awfully progressive of him.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

In summary to my above post (which I forgot to type before submitting), I think 11-1 ND only gets in if there's a two-loss conference champ OR the Big12 does not have an undefeated team (ND's SOS should be much better).